Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Middle East & North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa programme seeks to support a coherent European agenda in pursuit of regional interests. The programme works with European and regional governments, local voices, and civil society to advance channels of dialogue as well as providing direct policy prescriptions to secure conflict de-escalation, regional stabilisation, and democratic transition.
Featured
Anatomy of a chokepoint: Mapping power and conflict in the Red Sea
This ECFR project maps the Red Sea region as a nexus of conflict, regional rivalries and global power plays. To address the risks of this instability, Europeans need to develop a more comprehensive approach
The bear who came to tea: Russia, Libya and the Kremlin’s playbook for fragile states
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
The paradox of intervention: How US strikes in Yemen empowered the Houthis
The United States has now ended its campaign of airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthi movement, having achieved little military success and instead playing into Houthi attempts to consolidate domestic control
Anatomy of a chokepoint: Mapping power and conflict in the Red Sea
This ECFR project maps the Red Sea region as a nexus of conflict, regional rivalries and global power plays. To address the risks of this instability, Europeans need to develop a more comprehensive approach
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Nuclear diplomacy: Trump, Iran and a potential new deal
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, Mohsen Milani and Nathalie Tocci to unpack the latest developments in US-Iran diplomacy
The bear who came to tea: Russia, Libya and the Kremlin’s playbook for fragile states
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
Israeli strikes have reignited Gaza—now Europeans must take action
Israel has refused to implement the second phase of its ceasefire agreement with Hamas and launched a new wave of attacks against Gaza, with US backing. Europeans need to respond with sanctions and diplomatic action
After Assad: Shifting power and new politics in Syria
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh and Hugh Lovatt to discuss Syria’s evolving political landscape, its future trajectories—and the strategic implications for Europe and beyond
The road ahead: Six ways Europeans can urgently support a stable Syria
After the fall of Assad, many Syrians hope for a better future. But intense political and economic challenges risk derailing the transition. Europeans urgently need to do more to help stabilise Syria’s path in line with their own core interests
The price of pause: America’s aid halt will hit civil society in the Middle East hard
Scything cuts to US foreign aid will drain an already shallow pool of funding for embattled human rights defenders and independent media. That should worry Europeans, whose own budget cuts are part of the problem
Topple, tame, trade: How Turkey is rewriting Syria’s future
Turkey didn’t orchestrate Assad’s fall, but it’s certainly cashing in on the aftermath. Now, it wants to mould Syria in its own image—if it can keep the Kurds from spoiling the party
Publications
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
The bear who came to tea: Russia, Libya and the Kremlin’s playbook for fragile states
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
Dealing with Trump, Israel, and Hamas: The path to peace in the Middle East
With a two-state solution at risk, Europeans must work closely with Arab states to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to an end
Mending fences: Europe’s stake in the Saudi-Iran detente
Saudi-Iran diplomacy offers a rare path to prevent deepening conflict in the Middle East and support regional stability. Europeans should see this diplomacy as a chance to address their core interests, and not just as Iran’s attempt to bypass Western pressure
Value for money: Why and how Europeans should support the failing economies of Egypt and Tunisia
Severe weaknesses in the Egyptian and Tunisian economies provoke recurrent crises. There is a better way for Europeans to support Cairo and Tunis
Maghreb migrations: How North Africa and Europe can work together on sub-Saharan migration
North African countries are increasingly adopting ‘security first’ approaches towards sub-Saharan African migrants – a shift that could force EU states to rethink their own approach to the issue
Beyond proxies: Iran’s deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflict out into the open – and Lebanon and Syria are potential flashpoints for further escalation
East meets middle: China’s blossoming relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE
China is strengthening its ties to the Gulf in areas well beyond the energy sector. The EU clearly has stakes in the region, but it should not try to directly counter China’s influence. It should instead build its own Gulf partnerships
Global Saudi: How Europeans can work with an evolving kingdom
Saudi Arabia has become a middle power with outsize influence on global issues. To protect their interests, Europeans need a new approach to working with Riyadh which recognises the kingdom’s priorities
Proxy battles: Iraq, Iran, and the turmoil in the Middle East
The cycle of escalation in the Middle East since 7 October means Iraq has once again found itself a staging ground for Iranian-US conflict. But the relationship between Iraq and Iran is complex and multifaceted – and Europeans can help Iraq build its autonomy
Articles
The paradox of intervention: How US strikes in Yemen empowered the Houthis
The United States has now ended its campaign of airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthi movement, having achieved little military success and instead playing into Houthi attempts to consolidate domestic control
Israeli strikes have reignited Gaza—now Europeans must take action
Israel has refused to implement the second phase of its ceasefire agreement with Hamas and launched a new wave of attacks against Gaza, with US backing. Europeans need to respond with sanctions and diplomatic action
The road ahead: Six ways Europeans can urgently support a stable Syria
After the fall of Assad, many Syrians hope for a better future. But intense political and economic challenges risk derailing the transition. Europeans urgently need to do more to help stabilise Syria’s path in line with their own core interests
The price of pause: America’s aid halt will hit civil society in the Middle East hard
Scything cuts to US foreign aid will drain an already shallow pool of funding for embattled human rights defenders and independent media. That should worry Europeans, whose own budget cuts are part of the problem
Topple, tame, trade: How Turkey is rewriting Syria’s future
Turkey didn’t orchestrate Assad’s fall, but it’s certainly cashing in on the aftermath. Now, it wants to mould Syria in its own image—if it can keep the Kurds from spoiling the party
All change: How Europeans and Gulf Arab states can promote Syria’s political transition
European and Gulf Arab states share common interests in Syria – they should work closely together to ensure a stable transition
Why Europeans, Arab states and the Trump administration must work together to ensure a sustainable Gaza ceasefire
Israel and Hamas have finally reached a ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza. Europeans must now work with the incoming Donald Trump administration and Arab partners to secure Palestinian self-determination
How European leaders can support sustainable refugee returns in a post-Assad Syria
A rise in right-wing agendas in European politics is colliding with post-Assad refugee dilemmas for Syrians and the region. European leaders must navigate domestic pressures to support Syria’s transition in a constructive way and ensure voluntary, sustainable returns
Trump’s return: A disaster for Gaza, a challenge for Europe
Pro-Israel hardliners dominate Trump’s new administration, leaving Palestinians with little hope for justice. European leaders can counterbalance this by supporting Palestinian self-determination and enforcing accountability
The fall of Assad: Europeans have an opportunity to help forge a new Syria
Following a ten-day advance, Syrian rebels have toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad. European governments should step up support for a stabilising, power-sharing transition to protect their regional interests – and Syria’s citizens
Specials
Anatomy of a chokepoint: Mapping power and conflict in the Red Sea
This ECFR project maps the Red Sea region as a nexus of conflict, regional rivalries and global power plays. To address the risks of this instability, Europeans need to develop a more comprehensive approach
The Gaza crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
Women of Middle East network for peacebuilding
The conversation around achieving peace and prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa needs to become more inclusive and diverse, through an injection of fresh ideas and perspectives from regional voices
Part of the problem: A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
European states face accusations of neglecting the matter of human rights in their southern neighbourhood, and even of being complicit. Yet they are failing to maximise the influence they could bring to bear
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
Differentiation Tracker
ECFR’s Differentiation Tracker provides a snapshot of third state relations with Israel – and the extent to which these contain a clearly defined territorial definition that explicitly excludes Israeli settlements constructed on occupied territory in line with UNSCR 2334
Mapping armed groups in Mali and the Sahel
Violence is tearing Mali and the Sahel apart. But who are the armed groups behind the bloodshed? Where are international actors stationed in the region? And what motivates them all?
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
Nuclear diplomacy: Trump, Iran and a potential new deal
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, Mohsen Milani and Nathalie Tocci to unpack the latest developments in US-Iran diplomacy
After Assad: Shifting power and new politics in Syria
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh and Hugh Lovatt to discuss Syria’s evolving political landscape, its future trajectories—and the strategic implications for Europe and beyond
Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
Ceasefire in Lebanon
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon
Saudi Arabia and Trump: What’s next for the Middle East
Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Dr. Manal Radwan to talk about the impact of Donald Trump’s election for the wars in the Middle East
Regional war in the Middle East: Anatomy of a conflict one year after 7 October
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the regional war in the Middle East one year on from the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel
The World after the West: Nasser Hadian on Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Nasser Hadian to delve into Iran’s geopolitical positioning
Pathways to peace in Gaza: The prospects for Palestinian statehood
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt and Muhammad Shehada to discuss the war in Gaza and the prospects for Palestinian statehood
Podcast special: Iran attacks Israel
On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to have…
Shifting sands: The geoeconomic triumphs of the Gulf
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco, Agathe Demarais, and Camille Lons to discuss the geoeconomics of the Gulf
Events
10 Dec
Il Circolo dell’ECFR: L’asse Emirati Arabi Uniti-Africa: orientarsi nel nuovo scenario multipolare
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzato sul ruolo degli Emirati Arabi Uniti in Africa. Mentre i leader europei riflettono sul…
2 Oct
LA RUSSIA OLTRE IL MEDITERRANEO – La presenza di Mosca in Africa e le implicazioni per gli interessi europei
Negli ultimi anni, la presenza della Russia in Africa è cresciuta significativamente, sia nel Nord Africa che nell’Africa Subsahariana, presentando una sfida strategica per l’Europa e, in particolare, per l’Italia. Mosca ha rafforzato la sua presenza nel continente attraverso una serie di accordi bilaterali, cooperazioni militari, e investimenti economici e nel settore energetico. Questo incremento di influenza è stato percepito come una mossa strategica per aumentare il suo peso globale e per contrastare l’influenza occidentale
23 Jul
ECFR Discussion with HR/VP Josep Borrell: How can the EU support a sustained ceasefire in Gaza and a renewed Israeli-Palestinian political track?
Josep Borrell Fontelles is the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission. He was President of the…
23 Jul
UAE-Africa nexus: Navigating a new multipolar landscape
As European leaders navigate the EU’s strategic future amid rising geopolitical tensions, a critical mass of middle powers, from India and Turkey to the Gulf…
12 Jun
Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico
La discussione “Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico”, organizzata dall’ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ed ELEC – European League for Economic Cooperation, avrà luogo, in forma virtuale, mercoledì 12 giugno 2024 dalle ore 16:30 alle ore 18:00 sulla piattaforma Zoom
19 Jun
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
28 May
Connessioni infinite: Italia, Europa e progetto IMEC
L’IMEC è un progetto a lungo termine che richiede investimenti considerevoli e presenta notevoli ostacoli interni ed esterni. Ma il potenziale del corridoio di rafforzare i legami tra potenze diverse potrebbe rivelarsi prezioso in questo mondo frammentato e turbolento, con benefici geopolitici e geoeconomici per Europa ed i suoi partner
23 May
Il circolo dell’ECFR – Corridoio IMEC: prospettive per Italia ed UE
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzato sulle prospettive del corridoio IMEC come ponte economico tra Oriente ed Occidente
8 May
Rome Foreign Policy Club, Terza Edizione – Road to November 2024: prospettive e scenari globali delle elezioni americane
Nella sua edizione 2024, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani ricercatori italiani under 40 per costruire ipotesi di scenario che possano supportare la definizione di policy da parte del Ministero per gli Affari Esteri e la Cooperazione Internazionale. L’evento più significativo per l’anno in corso è indubbiamente rappresentato dalle elezioni americane di novembre il cui esito avrà enormi implicazioni su due aspetti cruciali del contesto internazionale: i rapporti con Cina e Sud Globale e le relazioni con Mosca alla luce del conflitto in Ucraina
21 Feb
The externalization of Europe’s borders: the only solution?
Migration in the Mediterranean has been a crisis factor for Europe for decades. To shed light on the issue, the discussion will revolve around ECFR’s policy brief edited by Lorena Stella Martini and Tarek Megerisi, which examines the case study of the Central Mediterranean route to analyse European externalization policies, focusing primarily on migration to Italy
In the media
Gheniwa was the de facto king of Tripoli. His henchmen controlled the internal security agency–money transfers from the central bank, numerous public companies and ministries
You do not build a state through targeted assassinations. This episode could be seen as an attempt to replicate the model adopted by Haftar, risking generating more instability
Julien Barnes-Dacey on US President Donald Trump’s first planned trip abroad to Saudi Arabia
There is a convergence of needs that makes the Gulf monarchies the center of gravity for world economic and geopolitical policies, especially for the U.S
Corrado Cok on the implications of Trump’s foreign policy for the Middle East and Saudi Arabia