Hedge politics: Turkey’s search for balance in the Middle East
Ankara is trying to normalise its relationships with Middle Eastern governments. The EU needs to adjust to the new Turkey that is emerging from this process.
Middle East & North Africa
ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme seeks to support a coherent European agenda in pursuit of regional interests, working to advance openings for conflict de-escalation, regional stabilisation and democratic transition.
Featured
Clear and president danger: Democracy and the constitution in Tunisia
Tunisia’s new constitution would create an unaccountable presidency. European policymakers should state that it is not genuinely democratic, while continuing to support the country economically.
Early warning: How Iraq can adapt to climate change
Climate change is increasing the strain on Iraqi society and public services. Despite this, the country’s political figures are overlooking the huge benefits that climate investment would bring.
Hedge politics: Turkey’s search for balance in the Middle East
Ankara is trying to normalise its relationships with Middle Eastern governments. The EU needs to adjust to the new Turkey that is emerging from this process.
Deadlocked and loaded: Iraq’s political inertia
Iraqi leaders’ inability to form a government or deal with national challenges is destroying the legitimacy of the state. They need to appoint a new type of prime minister.
Fly for a might guy: Putin’s drone deal with Iran
Russia’s rumoured purchase of Iranian drones is unlikely to have a major impact in its war on Ukraine. It is unclear how quickly Russian forces could become proficient with these systems.
Clear and president danger: Democracy and the constitution in Tunisia
Tunisia’s new constitution would create an unaccountable presidency. European policymakers should state that it is not genuinely democratic, while continuing to support the country economically.
Early warning: How Iraq can adapt to climate change
Climate change is increasing the strain on Iraqi society and public services. Despite this, the country’s political figures are overlooking the huge benefits that climate investment would bring.
Bide and seek: The dangers of US support for a Gulf-Israeli defence pact
Military alignment between Israel and Gulf Arab states risks heightened conflict in the Middle East – without weakening Iran’s geopolitical position or nuclear programme
Can the Iran nuclear deal be saved?
Mark Leonard, Ellie Geranmayeh, Hossein Mousavian, Vali Nasr, and Ali Vaez discuss the latest developments in the negotiations around the Iran nuclear deal and evaluate different possible outcomes and their consequences
Never let a good crisis go to waste: How Europe can respond to Libya’s riots
European policymakers should look on current protests in Libya as a rare opportunity to push for change in what has long been a stagnant political environment
Local and focused: European support for peace in Yemen
The EU should provide targeted support to local communities and organisations in Yemen. This would help sustain the ceasefire and restore Europeans’ credibility in the country.
Iron net: Digital repression in the Middle East and North Africa
Governments across the world have powerful digital tools to control and repress their populations. The EU should treat this as an urgent security and political concern.
Publications
Hedge politics: Turkey’s search for balance in the Middle East
Ankara is trying to normalise its relationships with Middle Eastern governments. The EU needs to adjust to the new Turkey that is emerging from this process.
Clear and president danger: Democracy and the constitution in Tunisia
Tunisia’s new constitution would create an unaccountable presidency. European policymakers should state that it is not genuinely democratic, while continuing to support the country economically.
Early warning: How Iraq can adapt to climate change
Climate change is increasing the strain on Iraqi society and public services. Despite this, the country’s political figures are overlooking the huge benefits that climate investment would bring.
Iron net: Digital repression in the Middle East and North Africa
Governments across the world have powerful digital tools to control and repress their populations. The EU should treat this as an urgent security and political concern.
Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East
Europeans need to deal with the Middle East as it is rather than as they want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability
North African standoff: How the Western Sahara conflict is fuelling new tensions between Morocco and Algeria
Europeans should pay closer attention to rising tensions between Morocco and Algeria. A more balanced European approach to both countries could help stave off instability in north-west Africa and the Mediterranean.
Building security: How Europeans can help reform Libya
Europeans can play a meaningful role in the reform of Libya’s security sector if they adopt a shared strategy and operational principles
Power play: Europe’s climate diplomacy in the Gulf
If the EU is to achieve its climate and geopolitical goals, it will need to substantially increase its engagement with Gulf states on the European Green Deal
Burning ambition: Egypt’s return to regional leadership and how Europe should respond
The Egyptian regime has become somewhat more open to discussing matters such as human rights than Western capitals sometimes assume
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Articles
Deadlocked and loaded: Iraq’s political inertia
Iraqi leaders’ inability to form a government or deal with national challenges is destroying the legitimacy of the state. They need to appoint a new type of prime minister.
Fly for a might guy: Putin’s drone deal with Iran
Russia’s rumoured purchase of Iranian drones is unlikely to have a major impact in its war on Ukraine. It is unclear how quickly Russian forces could become proficient with these systems.
Bide and seek: The dangers of US support for a Gulf-Israeli defence pact
Military alignment between Israel and Gulf Arab states risks heightened conflict in the Middle East – without weakening Iran’s geopolitical position or nuclear programme
Never let a good crisis go to waste: How Europe can respond to Libya’s riots
European policymakers should look on current protests in Libya as a rare opportunity to push for change in what has long been a stagnant political environment
Local and focused: European support for peace in Yemen
The EU should provide targeted support to local communities and organisations in Yemen. This would help sustain the ceasefire and restore Europeans’ credibility in the country.
Borrell in Tehran: How to overcome three obstacles to the Iran nuclear deal
The collapse of the Iran nuclear deal could lead to military escalation and further turmoil in the global energy market. Europe can only address these threats through diplomacy with Iran and the US.
From parliament to street: Iraq’s emerging politics of domination
Much of Iraq’s post-war history has been a question of survival of the state. Now, Shia politicians are driving an intra-sect competition for leadership.
Tools of influence: Drone proliferation in the Middle East and North Africa
States in the region increasingly design and produce their own drones. The EU should respond by investing in European drone technology and creating a shared accountability regime for the use of such systems.
Peace of work: Yemen’s fragile ceasefire
The current truce in Yemen could lead to negotiations on a long-term ceasefire. But this would require greater concessions by the Houthis and sustained diplomatic engagement from regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran.
Turkey’s open door closes: How Europe can better support Syrian refugees
If Turkey and other countries begin deporting more Syrians back to Syria, Europe could experience a new wave of arrivals. European policymakers need to devise a more sustainable, longer-term approach to the issue.
Specials
Women of Middle East network for peacebuilding
The conversation around achieving peace and prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa needs to become more inclusive and diverse, through an injection of fresh ideas and perspectives from regional voices
Part of the problem: A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
European states face accusations of neglecting the matter of human rights in their southern neighbourhood, and even of being complicit. Yet they are failing to maximise the influence they could bring to bear.
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria.
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
Differentiation Tracker
ECFR’s Differentiation Tracker provides a snapshot of third state relations with Israel – and the extent to which these contain a clearly defined territorial definition that explicitly excludes Israeli settlements constructed on occupied territory in line with UNSCR 2334
Mapping armed groups in Mali and the Sahel
Violence is tearing Mali and the Sahel apart. But who are the armed groups behind the bloodshed? Where are international actors stationed in the region? And what motivates them all?
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Mapping Palestinian Politics
This interactive web project charts the constellation of political players as Palestinians approach a period of political change. Over 100 pen portraits reveal new insights into the personalities and power structures that will shape the future of Palestinian politics.
A quick guide to Libya’s main players
In Libya there are very few truly national actors, the vast majority are local players. This guide explains who the players are and what they control.
Podcasts
Can the Iran nuclear deal be saved?
Mark Leonard, Ellie Geranmayeh, Hossein Mousavian, Vali Nasr, and Ali Vaez discuss the latest developments in the negotiations around the Iran nuclear deal and evaluate different possible outcomes and their consequences
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
System failure: The causes of humanitarian crises
Humanitarian crises in places like Afghanistan, Yemen or Ethiopia are not only a reflection of internal turmoil – but mirror a much grander development: system failure
Syria’s war, Europe’s problem
What does the re-engagement of regional actors mean for the future of Syria? And what role can Europe play to create breathing space in the country?
Europe’s role in a post-American Middle East
Who is filling the vacuum which the US is increasingly leaving behind in the MENA region? How are regional actors reacting to US disengagement?
The EU and France in the Sahel
What does the end of Operation Barkhane in its current form mean for the Sahel?
The election of President Ebrahim Raisi and the future of Iran
Does the election of Raisi represent a significant change of direction following the term of President Rouhani?
Understanding the conflict in Western Sahara
What is the Western Sahara conflict is all about, and how will the most recent developments between Morocco and Spain influence this conflict?
Special ECFR discussion on Palestinian politics
Discussion about the political shifts from the March Israeli elections and dynamics surrounding the upcoming Palestinian elections
How the Turkey-UAE Rivalry is remaking the Middle East
How can the EU prevent the Turkey-UAE rivalry from destabilising European security and foreign policy?
Events
13 Dec
Part of the problem? A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
How can Europeans more effectively advance their human rights agenda as part of, and while maintaining, their broader relationships with regional states?
21 Sep
Youth Forum – Next Generation MENA: Exploring the Power of Change
The Youth Forum is part of the one-day conference “The future of popular mobilization in the Middle East and North Africa: Insights from 10 years of struggle” jointly organized by the Rome office of ECFR, Centro Studi di Politica Internazionale (CeSPI) and Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI)
9 Mar
Ending the Yemen conflict: Voices of local peace-builders
This event will consider how women peace-builders in Yemen are providing essential gender-responsive humanitarian and peacemaking support
24 Feb
European strategic sovereignty in the Southern neighbourhood
The EU’s lack of strategic sovereignty in the MENA region need not be permanent
23 Feb
Gulf of difference: Monarchie del Golfo ed Iran. Il ruolo dell’Europa
Il recente insediamento dell’amministrazione Biden a Washington e il percepito disimpegno degli Stati Uniti nella regione offrono agli europei l’opportunità di contribuire ad allentare le tensioni tra gli Stati del Consiglio di Cooperazione del Golfo (CCG) e l’Iran
23 Feb
Koniec Oslo: nowa strategia europejska w kwestii izraelsko-palestyńskiej
Proces oparty na porozumieniach z Oslo wyczerpał się, a szanse na realizację rozwiązania opartego na dwóch państwach są coraz mniejsze. Europie nie udaje się zmienić…
21 Dec
Sovereign Europe, hostile world: In conversation with Josep Borrell, HRVP
The EU’s High Representative, Josep Borrell, and Mark Leonard discussed why strategic autonomy matters
17 Nov
ECFR MENA Fireside Chat with Philip Gordon: Assessing US policy towards the Middle East
Zoom registration required, see link below. After President-elect Joe Biden’s victory at the US elections, the ECFR MENA team will host a fireside chat…
17 Sep
Turkey’s role in the Eastern Mediterranean: Threats of Conflict and Prospects for Dialogue
A conversation with Ibrahim Kalin to discuss Turkey’s assertive policy, prospects of dialogue, and implications for Turkish-European relations
17 Jun
Mediterraneo Orientale: un bacino di crisi
Questo scacchiere richiede concrete decisioni da parte dei decisori politici europei e atlantici ed attenzione costante dei media
In the media
[…] at the end of the day, Tehran and Washington know the alternatives to a JCPOA collapse are terrible
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the fresh round of talks over Iran’s nuclear programme in Vienna
This meeting will either push the EU and US to say it’s worth pursuing another round of talks with Iran, or they are really going to accelerate their options […]
This meeting will either push the EU and US to say it’s worth pursuing another round […] or they are really going to accelerate their options for what they do if the nuclear talks collapse
Haftar’s official classification as a war criminal will make his political ambitions more difficult
Tarek Megerisi’s comment on the consequences of the ruling of the US Federal Court of Eastern Virginia, which has found General Khalifa Haftar guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity
Erdogan has been saying he would like to [launch] another cross-border [operation] into Syria and it’s clear he wants to do this before the Turkish elections
