MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe
Form exists in the frenzy of Donald Trump’s first months back in power. His foreign policy is his domestic agenda exported—and that is bad news for Europe
United States
The US programme helps Europeans create policy responses to developments in US domestic politics and foreign policy. The programme seeks to strengthen transatlantic relations by exploring the obstacles to a more balanced partnership and developing ideas to overcome them.
Featured
J.D. Vance’s foreign policy: When restraint meets culture war
J.D. Vance is shaping up to be America’s most influential vice president since Dick Cheney—but that’s where the similarities between them end
Trump’s quest to transform the West
The Trump administration is drawing on Roman Empire imagery, and Trump’s own version of Christianity, to reinforce its perception of Western values and impose conditional bilateral partnerships. Europeans need to be ready for America’s whole-hearted shift towards values-based diplomacy
Europeans can’t let Trump define what it means to be European
The US National Security Strategy 2025 is little more than a guide to Trump’s culture war with Europe. EU member states and institutions, and its political parties and populations, need to resist America’s pernicious influence
A tale of two buildings: Munich and Vietnam at war in Ukraine
The West’s response to Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is caught between the 1938 Munich warning against appeasing aggression and the 1960s Vietnam lesson against overextension. The answer lies in tempering the two extremes
MAGA goes south: Trump’s plan for Venezuela
Speculation is swirling that the US could use military force to pursue regime change in Venezuela. The country’s fate may depend on which faction in the Trump administration convinces the president they can serve him up the biggest “win”
2 Dec
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics…
What Chinese leaders really think of Trump
According to Chinese academics, economists and retired military officers, the country’s leaders are not losing any sleep over Donald Trump’s America First agenda. In fact, as they see it, the US president is ushering in a world that Chinese strategists have long been preparing for
Venezuela and Trump’s hemispheric defence agenda
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the US millitary engagement in Venezuela and Trump’s broader defence strategy
The imported martyr: Echoes of Charlie Kirk in Europe
By presenting Kirk as a martyr killed by “leftist hate”, conservative leaders across the Atlantic can reaffirm their core narrative: that they are victims, persecuted and silenced by liberal elites
The rise of a worker friendly Republican Party
Mark Leonard welcomes Oren Cass to discuss the Republicans’ turn away from neoliberalism to embracing the working class
J.D. Vance’s foreign policy: When restraint meets culture war
J.D. Vance is shaping up to be America’s most influential vice president since Dick Cheney—but that’s where the similarities between them end
Americans have 400 days to save their democracy
I never thought I’d see fear spread so far and fast. Next year’s midterm elections are now crucial for the Democratic party—and for democrats everywhere
Publications
MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe
Form exists in the frenzy of Donald Trump’s first months back in power. His foreign policy is his domestic agenda exported—and that is bad news for Europe
Trump’s tinderbox: US politics and the next war in the Balkans
Serbian revisionism is on the march and would be greatly strengthened by a Trump win. The EU must prepare a deterrence plan — and take greater responsibility for Western Balkan security
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Articles
Europeans can’t let Trump define what it means to be European
The US National Security Strategy 2025 is little more than a guide to Trump’s culture war with Europe. EU member states and institutions, and its political parties and populations, need to resist America’s pernicious influence
A tale of two buildings: Munich and Vietnam at war in Ukraine
The West’s response to Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is caught between the 1938 Munich warning against appeasing aggression and the 1960s Vietnam lesson against overextension. The answer lies in tempering the two extremes
MAGA goes south: Trump’s plan for Venezuela
Speculation is swirling that the US could use military force to pursue regime change in Venezuela. The country’s fate may depend on which faction in the Trump administration convinces the president they can serve him up the biggest “win”
What Chinese leaders really think of Trump
According to Chinese academics, economists and retired military officers, the country’s leaders are not losing any sleep over Donald Trump’s America First agenda. In fact, as they see it, the US president is ushering in a world that Chinese strategists have long been preparing for
The imported martyr: Echoes of Charlie Kirk in Europe
By presenting Kirk as a martyr killed by “leftist hate”, conservative leaders across the Atlantic can reaffirm their core narrative: that they are victims, persecuted and silenced by liberal elites
J.D. Vance’s foreign policy: When restraint meets culture war
J.D. Vance is shaping up to be America’s most influential vice president since Dick Cheney—but that’s where the similarities between them end
Americans have 400 days to save their democracy
I never thought I’d see fear spread so far and fast. Next year’s midterm elections are now crucial for the Democratic party—and for democrats everywhere
Peace in the Caucasus: Ensuring Europe plays a role after Trump’s ceremony
The Trump-brokered deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan signals public US involvement in one of Europe’s most protracted conflicts. But the ceremony may have come too soon, triggering dynamics that could threaten lasting peace
Trump’s quest to transform the West
The Trump administration is drawing on Roman Empire imagery, and Trump’s own version of Christianity, to reinforce its perception of Western values and impose conditional bilateral partnerships. Europeans need to be ready for America’s whole-hearted shift towards values-based diplomacy
Multilateralism with less America: Trump’s plan for international organisations
The Trump administration has made clear its distain for the multilateral system. As it reviews US participation, Europeans are faced with a tricky balance of selectively embracing these reforms while filling the America-sized hole
Podcasts
Venezuela and Trump’s hemispheric defence agenda
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the US millitary engagement in Venezuela and Trump’s broader defence strategy
The rise of a worker friendly Republican Party
Mark Leonard welcomes Oren Cass to discuss the Republicans’ turn away from neoliberalism to embracing the working class
Live from the Aspen Security Forum: America’s inward turn
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Tom Wright to unpack the Aspen Security Forum and America’s shifting global priorities
Hidden empire: How America wields economic power
Mark Leonard is joined by Henry Farrell to discuss how power is exercised in contemporary global politics
Doves and hawks: Foreign policy in the second Trump age
Mark Leonard welcomes Dan Caldwell and Curt Mills to talk Trump’s foreign policy—and the key influences shaping it
Trump’s new Europe: From ally to adversary
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin to discuss how Europe can respond to Donald Trump’s vision of a transformed transatlantic order
100 days of Trump
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe
Signal scandal: The US and its shifting alliances
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack recent scandals and strategic shifts in US foreign policy
Divide and conquer: Trump’s class war with Adam Tooze
Mark Leonard welcomes Adam Tooze to unpack the role of class in the second Trump presidency, and its implications for the US and Europe
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Events
2 Dec
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics…
18 Jun
The New Age of American Foreign Policy
The NATO summit on 24-26 June 2025 is likely to be a flashpoint in the transatlantic relationship and another example of how the US, under President Trump 2.0, has changed the way it exerts power. From sweeping and volatile tariffs, a reduced military engagement in Europe, to an alliance with the most powerful US tech companies, the panel will try and decipher the long-term impact of the new US ways to conduct foreign policy
23 Jun
Defence without America? What Europeans are (and aren’t) ready for
Days before a high-stakes NATO summit, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) hosts to a timely webinar on European public attitudes towards Europe’s defence,…
29 Apr
The US-China trade war and implications for Europe and the UK
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken in the emerging trade war. With more than 150% tariffs on Chinese…
6 May
No brain, no brawn: How Trump 2.0 makes an EU Economic Security Network essential
The EU lacks cohesive governance to deploy economic statecraft tools, such as sanctions and export controls, undermining their impact and the bloc’s global credibility. In…
14 Apr
Transatlantic Forum, 8th Edition – La competizione USA-Cina per la sicurezza tecnologica
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum vedrà il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra…
28 Mar
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – L’Europa in scena: attore non protagonista del nuovo scenario internazionale?
Questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzata sulla risposta dell’Europa alla seconda presidenza Trump. Le tensioni tra gli Stati Uniti di Donald Trump e…
18 Mar
Riders on the storm: Trump, Europe and the future of Ukraine
Il dinner, in forma riservata e organizzato con il gentile sostegno della Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo, avrà luogo in inglese (no traduzione simultanea), secondo…
4 Mar
CHINA-EU RELATIONS IN A TRUMPIAN WORLD
Si tratta del sesto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi…
10 Feb
The return of President Trump and its implications for the UK and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the…
In the media
Zsuzsanna Végh on Trump’s perspective on Europe in the 2025 National Security Strategy
