The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
United States
The US programme helps Europeans create policy responses to developments in US domestic politics and foreign policy. The programme seeks to strengthen transatlantic relations by exploring the obstacles to a more balanced partnership and developing ideas to overcome them.
Featured
Facing Trump’s tariff war: A defensive blueprint for the EU
Trump and his cabinet hold divergent views on the use and purpose of tariffs. The EU needs a robust defence of its interests on all fronts
Letter from Washington: Why Trump won’t like Europe’s Ukraine plan
The US has rid itself of its responsibility for Europe’s defence—and Europeans have finally responded. For those in Washington, however, it is too little too late
When culture war and trade war clash: Trump’s troubled alliance with Europe’s far right
The Trump administration and far-right European politicians see an opportunity to transform the EU from within. In turn, liberal Europeans have an opportunity to undermine this transatlantic alliance—before it gathers real momentum
Europe after the end of the liberal international order
As Europeans rearm to confront Russian aggression, they also need to figure out how to survive in the age of “unpeace” that Donald Trump and other strongmen are ushering in. The old interdependencies that liberals took for granted no longer ensure peace, prosperity or stability
14 Apr
Transatlantic Forum, 8th Edition – La competizione USA-Cina per la sicurezza tecnologica
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum vedrà il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra…
The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
28 Mar
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – L’Europa in scena: attore non protagonista del nuovo scenario internazionale?
Questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzata sulla risposta dell’Europa alla seconda presidenza Trump. Le tensioni tra gli Stati Uniti di Donald Trump e…
Signal scandal: The US and its shifting alliances
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack recent scandals and strategic shifts in US foreign policy
18 Mar
Riders on the storm: Trump, Europe and the future of Ukraine
Il dinner, in forma riservata e organizzato con il gentile sostegno della Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo, avrà luogo in inglese (no traduzione simultanea), secondo…
Divide and conquer: Trump’s class war with Adam Tooze
Mark Leonard welcomes Adam Tooze to unpack the role of class in the second Trump presidency, and its implications for the US and Europe
Letter from Washington: Why Trump won’t like Europe’s Ukraine plan
The US has rid itself of its responsibility for Europe’s defence—and Europeans have finally responded. For those in Washington, however, it is too little too late
4 Mar
CHINA-EU RELATIONS IN A TRUMPIAN WORLD
Si tratta del sesto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi…
Publications
Trump’s tinderbox: US politics and the next war in the Balkans
Serbian revisionism is on the march and would be greatly strengthened by a Trump win. The EU must prepare a deterrence plan — and take greater responsibility for Western Balkan security
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Articles
When culture war and trade war clash: Trump’s troubled alliance with Europe’s far right
The Trump administration and far-right European politicians see an opportunity to transform the EU from within. In turn, liberal Europeans have an opportunity to undermine this transatlantic alliance—before it gathers real momentum
Europe after the end of the liberal international order
As Europeans rearm to confront Russian aggression, they also need to figure out how to survive in the age of “unpeace” that Donald Trump and other strongmen are ushering in. The old interdependencies that liberals took for granted no longer ensure peace, prosperity or stability
The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
Letter from Washington: Why Trump won’t like Europe’s Ukraine plan
The US has rid itself of its responsibility for Europe’s defence—and Europeans have finally responded. For those in Washington, however, it is too little too late
Facing Trump’s tariff war: A defensive blueprint for the EU
Trump and his cabinet hold divergent views on the use and purpose of tariffs. The EU needs a robust defence of its interests on all fronts
Letter from Washington: Why Trump ignores Europe
Donald Trump has effectively ignored Europeans in his plan for negotiations over the war in Ukraine. In searching for a reason, Europeans must face the uncomfortable truth: they simply aren’t important enough
A cold front: Denmark’s response to Trump’s desire for Greenland
Trump’s obsession with buying Greenland has turned the island into a geopolitical flashpoint, leaving Europeans uneasy and Denmark navigating choppy waters over the island’s political future
Glitch in the matrix: How Europeans should respond to the Trump-Musk tech agenda
Elon Musk and Donald Trump are setting out America’s new approach to digital technology—including social media and AI. The EU must understand their motivations and work with willing partners to curb negative influence in the global digital sphere
Transatlantic drift: UK-EU defence cooperation in the second Trump era
Donald Trump’s re-election is calling America’s commitment to transatlantic security into question. The UK and the EU should deepen their defence relationship in the face of external aggression
Touching the void: Human rights in foreign policy under Trump 2.0
Donald Trump’s second presidential administration is imminent. The European Union should prioritise international collaboration to challenge America’s likely hardline approach to human rights
Podcasts
Signal scandal: The US and its shifting alliances
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack recent scandals and strategic shifts in US foreign policy
Divide and conquer: Trump’s class war with Adam Tooze
Mark Leonard welcomes Adam Tooze to unpack the role of class in the second Trump presidency, and its implications for the US and Europe
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
What Trump’s election means for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, Piotr Buras, Anna Kuchenbecker, Maria Simeonova, and Arturo Varvelli to discuss what the outcome of the US election means for Europe
Swamp Chronicles: Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Mark Leonard, and Jeremy Shapiro on the results of the US election
In this bonus episode of Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Mark Leonard about the results of the US election
US election special: Donald Trump wins
Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the results of the 2024 US election
Swamp Chronicles: Célia Belin and Madja Ruge on the foreign policy of the next US administration
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Célia Belin and Majda Ruge about the US election and the various foreign policy tribes within the Democratic and Republican party
Swamp Chronicles: Fiona Hill on US leadership, Ukraine’s future, and the post-election world
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Fiona Hill about the future of transatlantic relations and the war in Ukraine after the election
Swamp Chronicles: Ed Luce on what is at stake in the 2024 election
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Ed Luce to talk about what either a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory would mean for America, US foreign policy, and Europe
Swamp Chronicles: Matt Duss on progressive foreign policy in the Middle East and Ukraine
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome to Matt Duss to discuss American policy in the Middle East and the future of progressive foreign policy
Events
14 Apr
Transatlantic Forum, 8th Edition – La competizione USA-Cina per la sicurezza tecnologica
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum vedrà il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra…
28 Mar
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – L’Europa in scena: attore non protagonista del nuovo scenario internazionale?
Questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzata sulla risposta dell’Europa alla seconda presidenza Trump. Le tensioni tra gli Stati Uniti di Donald Trump e…
18 Mar
Riders on the storm: Trump, Europe and the future of Ukraine
Il dinner, in forma riservata e organizzato con il gentile sostegno della Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo, avrà luogo in inglese (no traduzione simultanea), secondo…
4 Mar
CHINA-EU RELATIONS IN A TRUMPIAN WORLD
Si tratta del sesto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi…
10 Feb
The return of President Trump and its implications for the UK and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the…
10 Dec
How to cope with Trump 2.0: Ukraine, Nato, China and trade wars
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it…
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
16 Sep
American Foreign Policy after the Elections
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a…
17 Jul
Transizione energetica, tecnologia e geopolitica: quali scenari strategici per Europa & Italia?
La sfida tecnologica posta dalla transizione energetica è un fattore dirimente di competizione tra gli attori internazionali, con implicazioni critiche sul futuro assetto geoeconomico globale, come reso evidente dalle tensioni nelle relazioni commerciali tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Unione Europea. Allo stesso tempo, la proiezione esterna degli attori internazionali e lo sforzo di costruzione di nuove partnership e collaborazioni sono meccanismi essenziali per lo sviluppo di catene del valore resilienti
9 Jul
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
In the media
It was a completely different meeting than the one with Zelensky, and also, all things considered, than the one with Macron. Meloni proposed herself as a bridge between the shores of the Atlantic
Arturo Varvelli on Giorgia Meloni’s meetings with Trump at the White House and J.D. Vance in Rome
Alberto Rizzi on how ideological proximity might have helped Meloni in her engagement with Trump:
Meloni has no official mandate from the European Commission France isn’t happy about the visit: it is likely Meloni’s trip will be carefully staged as a big show of alignment with Trump
While hopes are slim that Meloni can return with a deal, the Commission and some European countries may value her as a scout to feel the ground and lay the basis for future negotiations
