The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
United States
The US programme helps Europeans create policy responses to developments in US domestic politics and foreign policy. The programme seeks to strengthen transatlantic relations by exploring the obstacles to a more balanced partnership and developing ideas to overcome them.
Featured
Facing Trump’s tariff war: A defensive blueprint for the EU
Trump and his cabinet hold divergent views on the use and purpose of tariffs. The EU needs a robust defence of its interests on all fronts
Letter from Washington: Why Trump won’t like Europe’s Ukraine plan
The US has rid itself of its responsibility for Europe’s defence—and Europeans have finally responded. For those in Washington, however, it is too little too late
The bully’s pulpit: Finding patterns in Trump’s use of military force
Over two presidential terms, Donald Trump has used threats to intimidate his adversaries and mostly only employed force against his weaker victims. This pattern of bullying provides an insight into his future decision-making
MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe
Form exists in the frenzy of Donald Trump’s first months back in power. His foreign policy is his domestic agenda exported—and that is bad news for Europe
100 days of Trump
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe
Cards on the table: Why the EU should negotiate Trump’s tariffs in three phases
Trump’s tariff suspension gives the EU space to create clear negotiating terms, covering not only the next 90 days but also the next 90 weeks and 90 months. Only by establishing firm mid- and long-term targets can Europe hope to make the right calls in the short term
6 May
No brain, no brawn: How Trump 2.0 makes an EU Economic Security Network essential
The EU lacks cohesive governance to deploy economic statecraft tools, such as sanctions and export controls, undermining their impact and the bloc’s global credibility. In…
When culture war and trade war clash: Trump’s troubled alliance with Europe’s far right
The Trump administration and far-right European politicians see an opportunity to transform the EU from within. In turn, liberal Europeans have an opportunity to undermine this transatlantic alliance—before it gathers real momentum
Europe after the end of the liberal international order
As Europeans rearm to confront Russian aggression, they also need to figure out how to survive in the age of “unpeace” that Donald Trump and other strongmen are ushering in. The old interdependencies that liberals took for granted no longer ensure peace, prosperity or stability
14 Apr
Transatlantic Forum, 8th Edition – La competizione USA-Cina per la sicurezza tecnologica
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum vedrà il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra…
The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
28 Mar
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – L’Europa in scena: attore non protagonista del nuovo scenario internazionale?
Questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzata sulla risposta dell’Europa alla seconda presidenza Trump. Le tensioni tra gli Stati Uniti di Donald Trump e…
Publications
MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe
Form exists in the frenzy of Donald Trump’s first months back in power. His foreign policy is his domestic agenda exported—and that is bad news for Europe
Trump’s tinderbox: US politics and the next war in the Balkans
Serbian revisionism is on the march and would be greatly strengthened by a Trump win. The EU must prepare a deterrence plan — and take greater responsibility for Western Balkan security
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Articles
The bully’s pulpit: Finding patterns in Trump’s use of military force
Over two presidential terms, Donald Trump has used threats to intimidate his adversaries and mostly only employed force against his weaker victims. This pattern of bullying provides an insight into his future decision-making
Cards on the table: Why the EU should negotiate Trump’s tariffs in three phases
Trump’s tariff suspension gives the EU space to create clear negotiating terms, covering not only the next 90 days but also the next 90 weeks and 90 months. Only by establishing firm mid- and long-term targets can Europe hope to make the right calls in the short term
When culture war and trade war clash: Trump’s troubled alliance with Europe’s far right
The Trump administration and far-right European politicians see an opportunity to transform the EU from within. In turn, liberal Europeans have an opportunity to undermine this transatlantic alliance—before it gathers real momentum
Europe after the end of the liberal international order
As Europeans rearm to confront Russian aggression, they also need to figure out how to survive in the age of “unpeace” that Donald Trump and other strongmen are ushering in. The old interdependencies that liberals took for granted no longer ensure peace, prosperity or stability
The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
Letter from Washington: Why Trump won’t like Europe’s Ukraine plan
The US has rid itself of its responsibility for Europe’s defence—and Europeans have finally responded. For those in Washington, however, it is too little too late
Facing Trump’s tariff war: A defensive blueprint for the EU
Trump and his cabinet hold divergent views on the use and purpose of tariffs. The EU needs a robust defence of its interests on all fronts
Letter from Washington: Why Trump ignores Europe
Donald Trump has effectively ignored Europeans in his plan for negotiations over the war in Ukraine. In searching for a reason, Europeans must face the uncomfortable truth: they simply aren’t important enough
A cold front: Denmark’s response to Trump’s desire for Greenland
Trump’s obsession with buying Greenland has turned the island into a geopolitical flashpoint, leaving Europeans uneasy and Denmark navigating choppy waters over the island’s political future
Glitch in the matrix: How Europeans should respond to the Trump-Musk tech agenda
Elon Musk and Donald Trump are setting out America’s new approach to digital technology—including social media and AI. The EU must understand their motivations and work with willing partners to curb negative influence in the global digital sphere
Podcasts
100 days of Trump
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe
Signal scandal: The US and its shifting alliances
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack recent scandals and strategic shifts in US foreign policy
Divide and conquer: Trump’s class war with Adam Tooze
Mark Leonard welcomes Adam Tooze to unpack the role of class in the second Trump presidency, and its implications for the US and Europe
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
What Trump’s election means for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, Piotr Buras, Anna Kuchenbecker, Maria Simeonova, and Arturo Varvelli to discuss what the outcome of the US election means for Europe
Swamp Chronicles: Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Mark Leonard, and Jeremy Shapiro on the results of the US election
In this bonus episode of Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Mark Leonard about the results of the US election
US election special: Donald Trump wins
Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the results of the 2024 US election
Swamp Chronicles: Célia Belin and Madja Ruge on the foreign policy of the next US administration
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Célia Belin and Majda Ruge about the US election and the various foreign policy tribes within the Democratic and Republican party
Swamp Chronicles: Fiona Hill on US leadership, Ukraine’s future, and the post-election world
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Fiona Hill about the future of transatlantic relations and the war in Ukraine after the election
Swamp Chronicles: Ed Luce on what is at stake in the 2024 election
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Ed Luce to talk about what either a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory would mean for America, US foreign policy, and Europe
Events
6 May
No brain, no brawn: How Trump 2.0 makes an EU Economic Security Network essential
The EU lacks cohesive governance to deploy economic statecraft tools, such as sanctions and export controls, undermining their impact and the bloc’s global credibility. In…
14 Apr
Transatlantic Forum, 8th Edition – La competizione USA-Cina per la sicurezza tecnologica
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum vedrà il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra…
28 Mar
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – L’Europa in scena: attore non protagonista del nuovo scenario internazionale?
Questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzata sulla risposta dell’Europa alla seconda presidenza Trump. Le tensioni tra gli Stati Uniti di Donald Trump e…
18 Mar
Riders on the storm: Trump, Europe and the future of Ukraine
Il dinner, in forma riservata e organizzato con il gentile sostegno della Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo, avrà luogo in inglese (no traduzione simultanea), secondo…
4 Mar
CHINA-EU RELATIONS IN A TRUMPIAN WORLD
Si tratta del sesto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi…
10 Feb
The return of President Trump and its implications for the UK and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the…
10 Dec
How to cope with Trump 2.0: Ukraine, Nato, China and trade wars
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it…
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
16 Sep
American Foreign Policy after the Elections
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a…
17 Jul
Transizione energetica, tecnologia e geopolitica: quali scenari strategici per Europa & Italia?
La sfida tecnologica posta dalla transizione energetica è un fattore dirimente di competizione tra gli attori internazionali, con implicazioni critiche sul futuro assetto geoeconomico globale, come reso evidente dalle tensioni nelle relazioni commerciali tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Unione Europea. Allo stesso tempo, la proiezione esterna degli attori internazionali e lo sforzo di costruzione di nuove partnership e collaborazioni sono meccanismi essenziali per lo sviluppo di catene del valore resilienti
In the media
In her op-ed, Ellie Geranmayeh sets out how the Trump administration and Iran can pave the way for an improved and long-lasting nuclear deal
Meloni acts as a bridge between the European Commission and the US, seeking to reintroduce Von der Leyen’s zero-tariff also to protect the Italian economy, harhly hit by the tariffs
