Whether the wall works or not is irrelevant. Erdogan has to look tough on migration. Refugees have become a convenient scapegoat for the economic downturn.
Middle East and North Africa
It’s more and more unlikely by the day. There just isn’t enough time.
An extremely important decline that shows great discontent with the governance of the party in recent years
This [campaign] could have addressed the question of why the country supports Islamist groups
Qatar has positioned itself as the go-to mediator with the Taliban. It was a risky bet, especially considering the optics with the wider public, but it paid off.
The situation is a huge risk for Turkey, there is no doubt. Iran will also stand to lose if the Taliban returns to its old ways and provides a safe haven for Islamist extremists.
The speed with which the Taliban have taken power has taken aback some Gulf Countries, who thought they had more time to implement the new strategies with the group
What happened was not a sincere effort to defend Tunisia from an imminent threat. But neither was it a well-planned coup to take advantage of local discontent and seize absolute powers.
He would win with a small majority, and the revolutionary groups would start an immediate war
Lapid’s visit could lead to real diplomatic missions between the two countries, to the point that the Israeli minister has invited his Moroccan counterpart, Bourita, to go to Tel Aviv
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Lebanon is home to key strategic interests for the EU, which does not want another failed state on the Mediterranean
The EU and its member states can assist Tunisian leaders by providing new investment – and thereby reboot the democratic transition
The UN should pursue a “free association” option for Western Sahara – a third way that offers a realistic means of fulfilling Sahrawi self-determination
An Iraq that has diverse regional relationships is more likely to be stable and secure, in line with European interests in the Middle East
The EU and the US have a decisive role to play in ensuring the electoral process succeeds. In doing so, they can support Palestinian political renewal and improve prospects for a sustainable peace agreement with Israel.
Instead of using the UAE to push back against Turkey or vice versa, Europe should develop its own strategy on their rivalry
North African countries such as Morocco and Tunisia can help Europe meet its carbon emissions targets and strengthen its position in the face of fierce competition from China
Europeans should provide stabilisation, technical, and diplomatic support to strengthen Libya’s governance and accountability mechanisms to ensure a new government can successfully hold elections in 2021
The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran
It is time to assemble an anti-Houthi negotiations delegation that reflects the realities on the ground – and that can actually enforce an eventual settlement
Iran was more economically dependent on Afghanistan than many people realise. The change of regime will impact on Tehran in four main ways.
Europeans cannot stand apart from the chaos in Tunisia – indeed, active European involvement now can help restore stability to the country
The new Iranian administration may agree on a revised JCPOA with the US. But if the economic benefits are paltry, political support will drain away.
The convergence of geopolitical rivalries in the eastern Mediterranean has enhanced Greece’s standing. But it could also expose it to feuds that outpace its diplomatic and security capacity.
Emmanuel Macron took allies by surprise when he announced the end of Operation Barkhane. But his new plans do not appear to offer the change of tack the Sahel needs.
Even if the JCPOA is restored, European companies will hesitate to trade in Iran. European and American officials should work together to give companies the comfort they need.
Raisi’s election victory will not make Iranian politics any less volatile. Instead, it signals another of the cyclical changes in Iran’s politics that have taken place since 1979.
As countries across the Middle East pause to take stock of recent conflicts, Europeans need to do more to support dialogue
ECFR council members call on Europe to push forward a rights-based policy to break the cycle of conflict in Israel-Palestine
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria.
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
ECFR’s Differentiation Tracker provides a snapshot of third state relations with Israel – and the extent to which these contain a clearly defined territorial definition that explicitly excludes Israeli settlements constructed on occupied territory in line with UNSCR 2334
Violence is tearing Mali and the Sahel apart. But who are the armed groups behind the bloodshed? Where are international actors stationed in the region? And what motivates them all?
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
This interactive web project charts the constellation of political players as Palestinians approach a period of political change. Over 100 pen portraits reveal new insights into the personalities and power structures that will shape the future of Palestinian politics.
In Libya there are very few truly national actors, the vast majority are local players. This guide explains who the players are and what they control.
A multimedia exploration of Yemen's multi-faceted civil war
This series examines the reaction of key Middle Eastern actors, as well as looking at European policy options, the dynamics driving IS itself, and the impact within Syria and Iraq respectively.
Does the election of Raisi represent a significant change of direction following the term of President Rouhani?
How can the EU prevent the Turkey-UAE rivalry from destabilising European security and foreign policy?
In the eastern Mediterranean, a scramble is under way between countries in the region for access to recently discovered gas fields, often overlapping with wider…