Going ballistic: How Europeans can respond to Iranian military support for Russia

European and US governments announced this week that Iran has supplied Russia with several hundred short range ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine – a move Tehran has denied. The missiles join hundreds of Iranian drones already in Russian hands.

For Western governments, this is a “dramatic” escalatory step with Iran now even more directly involved in challenging European security in Ukraine. In response, the United States, together with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (E3) have imposed immediate sanctions, including cancelling Iran Air flights to Europe.

The move comes just as the newly elected and reformist-leaning Iranian government led by President Masoud Pezeshkian had been signalling a desire to reopen nuclear negotiations with the West – motivated by a renewed focus on the need for sanctions relief to address economic challenges. Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei had also shown openness to new negotiations.

However, Iran’s decision to supply ballistic missiles shows that Khamenei’s strategic priority remains strengthening ties with Russia. This has partly been driven by the American withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and its restoration of maximum pressure sanctions, and compounded by growing security threats from Israel and the US. The move also underscores that national security decisions are firmly controlled by Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards, and the newly elected government likely faced an already done missiles deal when it assumed office.

How Europeans should respond

European governments need to send a clear message to Tehran that the provision of missiles to Russia will close the space for new negotiations and make lifting Western sanctions impossible. Instead, it will only ensure tighter Western measures, with the European Union likely to widen the initial E3 measures.

But Europeans should also maintain direct dialogue with Tehran and hold out the prospect of new negotiations if Iran immediately halts missile supplies to Russia and shows a willingness to engage in meaningful nuclear talks. E3 leaders should use the upcoming UN General Assembly to directly convey this message to their Iranian counterparts, leveraging the possibility of serious diplomacy and economic relief to halt Iran’s support for Russia.

After a string of problematic Iranian actions on its nuclear programme and across the Middle East, European governments need to be clear-eyed about the balance of power in Tehran. They should maintain a firm position if Iran continues supplying Russia with weapons. But Europeans should also ensure that their Iranian counterparts advocating for talks with the West can point to a European partner willing to engage in fair talks. These negotiations should initially be centred on nuclear de-escalation as the issue with the most common ground. However, as Iran’s nuclear position interlinks with its deterrence strategy amid deepening regional conflict, a wider conversation will quickly be needed. 

The risk of wider escalation

European diplomats know that escalating tensions with Tehran could dramatically worsen the situation in the Middle East, further fuel Iran’s nuclear programme, and risk drawing the West into a wider conflict. They could also result in even closer Iranian alignment with Russia, fuelling the very trajectory that Europeans want to prevent.