The collapse of the Iran nuclear deal could lead to military escalation and further turmoil in the global energy market. Europe can only address these threats through diplomacy with Iran and the US.
Middle East and North Africa
Much of Iraq’s post-war history has been a question of survival of the state. Now, Shia politicians are driving an intra-sect competition for leadership.
States in the region increasingly design and produce their own drones. The EU should respond by investing in European drone technology and creating a shared accountability regime for the use of such systems.
The current truce in Yemen could lead to negotiations on a long-term ceasefire. But this would require greater concessions by the Houthis and sustained diplomatic engagement from regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran.
If Turkey and other countries begin deporting more Syrians back to Syria, Europe could experience a new wave of arrivals. European policymakers need to devise a more sustainable, longer-term approach to the issue.
Europeans need to deal with the Middle East as it is rather than as they want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability
This open letter has been signed by members of the European Leadership Network, board members of the International Crisis Group, and council members of the European Council on Foreign Relations
Iraq’s recent election upended the informal political agreement that had dominated its politics since 2003. European countries should press Iraqi leaders to break the current deadlock in parliament.
Tehran and Washington are close to a deal – but both sides need to give and take to achieve the wider benefits of a renewed Joint Comprehensive plan of Action (JCPOA)
North African standoff: How the Western Sahara conflict is fuelling new tensions between Morocco and Algeria
Europeans should pay closer attention to rising tensions between Morocco and Algeria. A more balanced European approach to both countries could help stave off instability in north-west Africa and the Mediterranean.