Echoes of Minsk: Lukashenka’s potential gain in Trump’s Ukraine deal
Trump could grant Lukashenka sanctions relief without demanding any meaningful concessions in return. The EU must continue to maintain pressure
Belarus
Lukashenka’s long shadow: Understanding Belarus’s new political architecture
Belarusian leader, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, has created a new and constitutionally powerful assembly that could secure him a smooth transition of power to his loyalists after his rule. But for now, he will control it himself
25 Apr
Belarus in 2024: Navigating Trajectories of War and Repression
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
Pantomimes and puppets: What to expect from Belarus’s faux-lection
The upcoming Belarusian parliamentary election on 25 February will be, as usual, a one-man show. The EU should not be deceived by the special effects, but instead take note of the stage directions
Freedom’s gambit. How to save Belarusian prisoners of conscience
Just beyond the borders of the EU, the prisons of Belarus hold thousands of hostages of the Lukashenko regime. There is no magic formula for their release, but the EU can draw on international examples to save the lives of at least some of them
To trust or not to trust: Why Europe should support Belarusian exiles
Three years after Belarus’s democratic uprising, Belarusians in Europe are met with increasing suspicion, but now more than ever, European leaders should guarantee enduring support to Belarusian exiles
Prigozhin’s gambit: The future of Wagner in Belarus
Several options await Wagner in Belarus, but none is likely to change the status quo
The Zelensky-Lukashenka-Tsikhanouskaya triangle: Understanding Ukraine’s relationship with the Belarusian opposition
Despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement
The insignificance of Putin’s latest nuclear bluster
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
Escalating dependence: Russia’s nuclear plans for Belarus
Putin may be bluffing about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. But if he follows through, the chance of a democratic transition for Belarus could all but vanish
Publications
The young and the restless: Europe, Russia, and the next generation of diplomats in the Eastern Partnership
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor
Lessons from Belarus: How the EU can support clean elections in Moldova and Georgia
The EU should make use of its significant leverage in Georgia and Moldova to counter their ruling parties’ extensive repertoire of electoral dirty tricks
Articles
Echoes of Minsk: Lukashenka’s potential gain in Trump’s Ukraine deal
Trump could grant Lukashenka sanctions relief without demanding any meaningful concessions in return. The EU must continue to maintain pressure
Lukashenka’s long shadow: Understanding Belarus’s new political architecture
Belarusian leader, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, has created a new and constitutionally powerful assembly that could secure him a smooth transition of power to his loyalists after his rule. But for now, he will control it himself
Pantomimes and puppets: What to expect from Belarus’s faux-lection
The upcoming Belarusian parliamentary election on 25 February will be, as usual, a one-man show. The EU should not be deceived by the special effects, but instead take note of the stage directions
Freedom’s gambit. How to save Belarusian prisoners of conscience
Just beyond the borders of the EU, the prisons of Belarus hold thousands of hostages of the Lukashenko regime. There is no magic formula for their release, but the EU can draw on international examples to save the lives of at least some of them
To trust or not to trust: Why Europe should support Belarusian exiles
Three years after Belarus’s democratic uprising, Belarusians in Europe are met with increasing suspicion, but now more than ever, European leaders should guarantee enduring support to Belarusian exiles
Prigozhin’s gambit: The future of Wagner in Belarus
Several options await Wagner in Belarus, but none is likely to change the status quo
The Zelensky-Lukashenka-Tsikhanouskaya triangle: Understanding Ukraine’s relationship with the Belarusian opposition
Despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement
The insignificance of Putin’s latest nuclear bluster
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
Escalating dependence: Russia’s nuclear plans for Belarus
Putin may be bluffing about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. But if he follows through, the chance of a democratic transition for Belarus could all but vanish
A prison of the mind: Lukashenka’s pursuit of exiled Belarusians
The EU should invest more to support Belarus’s community of émigrés – through whom a different future for the country is possible
Podcasts
How migration became a weapon: the Belarus-Polish border crisis
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
How the EU should respond to Belarus
What will be the impact of the EU and US measures against Belarus? And what should be next steps also ahead of the EU-US summit on 15 June?
Belarus’s brutal politics
What kind of implications do the developments in Belarus have for the wider neighbourhood and Europe?
Protest movement in Belarus: Will Lukashenko survive the current state (of) crisis?
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro stepped in as host and welcomes senior policy fellows Kadri Liik and Andrew Wilson as well as political scientist…
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: Ukraine and Belarus
With an EU-Ukraine summit coming up this month, in this episode of World in 30 Minutes Mark Leonard, Director of ECFR, speaks to Kadri Liik…
Events
25 Apr
Belarus in 2024: Navigating Trajectories of War and Repression
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
7 Jun
Belarus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The challenge of dual political identity
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
8 Nov
Migration crisis on the EU Eastern border: how the EU can protect borders and human rights
Since summer 2021, Poland and Lithuania have been confronted with an unprecedented action by the Lukashenko regime, which aims to exert political pressure on both…
27 Jan
The EU and Belarus in 2021
How is Europe planning to keep Belarus on the agenda and will it provide more political support for Belarusian civil society?
In the media
These elections, in the context of the war in Ukraine, are of major importance. Belarus will have the greatest relevance in terms of Polish security
Andreas Bock on the security policy consequences of Hungary’s border openings for citizens of Russia and Belarus
Belarus is already in a state of half-war. It continues to increase the combat effectiveness of its army and has begun mobilisation procedures
Pavel Slunkin and Gabriele Valodskaitė argue why Europe should support emigrants from Belarus