Deeds not words: Why the West should keep a close eye on Lukashenka
Recent military activity in Belarus, combined with Putin’s leverage over Lukashenka, suggests an ongoing threat of Belarusian troops joining hostilities in Ukraine
Belarus
7 Jun
Belarus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The challenge of dual political identity
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
How to train your dictator: Putin’s control over Lukashenka
Lukashenka is complicit in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But this should not stigmatise members of the Belarusian democratic movement – who need more support than they are receiving.
Bonfire of sovereignty: Russian tanks in Belarus
Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine
Kazakh lessons for authoritarian leaders: How Putin and Lukashenka could fail the test
Before the January 2022 riots, Kazakhstan was a model for managing transitions of power in the post-Soviet world. The leaders of Russia and Belarus will be furiously taking notes on how to avoid a similar fate.
How the German “traffic light” coalition can solve the EU border crisis
Germany’s new government could defuse the conflict between Poland and Belarus by demonstrating greater toughness on Lukashenka and showing willingness to accept a limited number of migrants. And the EU should be ready to use its most effective weapon: trade.
How migration became a weapon: the Belarus-Polish border crisis
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
No quiet on the eastern front: The migration crisis engineered by Belarus
The EU should show the Lukashenka regime that it will no longer tolerate the weaponisation of migration. As with any form of blackmail, it would be senseless and dangerous to make concessions – because the aggressor will only demand more.
The young and the restless: Europe, Russia, and the next generation of diplomats in the Eastern Partnership
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor.
8 Nov
Migration crisis on the EU Eastern border: how the EU can protect borders and human rights
Since summer 2021, Poland and Lithuania have been confronted with an unprecedented action by the Lukashenko regime, which aims to exert political pressure on both…
Publications
The young and the restless: Europe, Russia, and the next generation of diplomats in the Eastern Partnership
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor.
Lessons from Belarus: How the EU can support clean elections in Moldova and Georgia
The EU should make use of its significant leverage in Georgia and Moldova to counter their ruling parties’ extensive repertoire of electoral dirty tricks
Articles
Deeds not words: Why the West should keep a close eye on Lukashenka
Recent military activity in Belarus, combined with Putin’s leverage over Lukashenka, suggests an ongoing threat of Belarusian troops joining hostilities in Ukraine
How to train your dictator: Putin’s control over Lukashenka
Lukashenka is complicit in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But this should not stigmatise members of the Belarusian democratic movement – who need more support than they are receiving.
Bonfire of sovereignty: Russian tanks in Belarus
Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine
Kazakh lessons for authoritarian leaders: How Putin and Lukashenka could fail the test
Before the January 2022 riots, Kazakhstan was a model for managing transitions of power in the post-Soviet world. The leaders of Russia and Belarus will be furiously taking notes on how to avoid a similar fate.
How the German “traffic light” coalition can solve the EU border crisis
Germany’s new government could defuse the conflict between Poland and Belarus by demonstrating greater toughness on Lukashenka and showing willingness to accept a limited number of migrants. And the EU should be ready to use its most effective weapon: trade.
No quiet on the eastern front: The migration crisis engineered by Belarus
The EU should show the Lukashenka regime that it will no longer tolerate the weaponisation of migration. As with any form of blackmail, it would be senseless and dangerous to make concessions – because the aggressor will only demand more.
How half-hearted sanctions put the future of Belarus at risk
The EU is currently assembling its fifth package of sanctions on Belarus. Here is what European governments and the Belarusian opposition should draw from how things have gone so far.
Belarus’s creature of crisis: Two heads, one body
A year on from the falsified presidential election, two Belaruses now occupy the international arena. Neither the West nor Russia will be able to change this reality, but each will have to learn to live with both.
The EU and Belarus: First steps to flexing European geopolitical muscle
The arrest of Raman Pratasevich changed the calculus for EU capitals, which agreed new sanctions with real bite. The EU could finally be succeeding in its search for strategic sovereignty.
After the Pratasevich arrest: Four key steps for the EU on Belarus
Belarus will continue to cause problems on the EU’s doorstep – so it is now time for a firmer, longer-term approach
Podcasts
How migration became a weapon: the Belarus-Polish border crisis
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
How the EU should respond to Belarus
What will be the impact of the EU and US measures against Belarus? And what should be next steps also ahead of the EU-US summit on 15 June?
Belarus’s brutal politics
What kind of implications do the developments in Belarus have for the wider neighbourhood and Europe?
Protest movement in Belarus: Will Lukashenko survive the current state (of) crisis?
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro stepped in as host and welcomes senior policy fellows Kadri Liik and Andrew Wilson as well as political scientist…
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: Ukraine and Belarus
With an EU-Ukraine summit coming up this month, in this episode of World in 30 Minutes Mark Leonard, Director of ECFR, speaks to Kadri Liik…
Events
7 Jun
Belarus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The challenge of dual political identity
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
8 Nov
Migration crisis on the EU Eastern border: how the EU can protect borders and human rights
Since summer 2021, Poland and Lithuania have been confronted with an unprecedented action by the Lukashenko regime, which aims to exert political pressure on both…
27 Jan
The EU and Belarus in 2021
How is Europe planning to keep Belarus on the agenda and will it provide more political support for Belarusian civil society?
In the media
It is to make people afraid. It is to demoralize them and to make them feel unprotected — that this can happen to anyone at any time
Lukashenko’s messages are becoming more and more radical, but in the end it is not what he says but what he does that is crucial
Putin’s nuclear arms are his main weapons with which he can threaten the West, the US, the whole world. If he loses the conventional war, the only argument he has to threaten the rest of the world is
The Russians are trying to pin down as many Ukrainian forces in other places as possible, by posing latent threats to them
Lukashenka’s task is to stick to this process, no matter in what status – just to achieve his personal presence
Pavel Slunkin comments on Lukashenka’s desire for Belarus to be represented at the peace negotiations between Ru and UA