The past and the furious: How Russia’s revisionism threatens Bosnia
Russia is working to keep Bosnia divided. But many of the country’s problems are homegrown or exacerbated by neighbouring states.
Wider Europe
The Wider Europe programme aims to help the EU become a stronger geopolitical actor in its eastern neighbourhood. To achieve this goal, the programme supports EU decision-makers’ work on a unified and coherent policy vis-à-vis Russia, and develops consistent strategies to defend the EU’s interests and values in the Wider Europe region. The programme focuses on post-Soviet states, the Western Balkans, and Turkey.
Featured
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion – or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. Moldova and the EU need to embrace “active resilience” to address this.
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Russia’s indecision: Armenia and Azerbaijan return to violence
Moscow has declined to choose between its old friend Armenia and newer friend Azerbaijan. But the EU still has some way to go to make a difference through diplomacy.
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
State of the Union: How the energy crisis can strengthen EU unity
The European Commission president’s annual address has not pleased everybody – but its focus on energy reflects a deeper understanding of the nature of security today
The past and the furious: How Russia’s revisionism threatens Bosnia
Russia is working to keep Bosnia divided. But many of the country’s problems are homegrown or exacerbated by neighbouring states.
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.
The future of open society with Leonard Benardo
Leonard Benardo joins Mark Leonard to discuss the great challenges open societies are currently experiencing
How the West can help Ukraine capitalise on the Kherson counteroffensive
Ukraine has lured a significant number of Russian troops south – but the country still needs significant help on arms deliveries
Publications
The past and the furious: How Russia’s revisionism threatens Bosnia
Russia is working to keep Bosnia divided. But many of the country’s problems are homegrown or exacerbated by neighbouring states.
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion – or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. Moldova and the EU need to embrace “active resilience” to address this.
Hedge politics: Turkey’s search for balance in the Middle East
Ankara is trying to normalise its relationships with Middle Eastern governments. The EU needs to adjust to the new Turkey that is emerging from this process.
Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration.
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West.
Acts of normality: The potential for Turkey-Armenia rapprochement
After decades of tension, Turkey and Armenia now feel it is in their interest to normalise their relationship – not least to promote trade and to balance against Russian influence
Let a thousand contacts bloom: How China competes for influence in Bulgaria
China is expanding its presence in Bulgaria through a strategy of engagement with state and non-state actors. This has concerning implications in areas such as technology transfer, critical infrastructure, and public procurement.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
It’s complicated: Russia’s tricky relationship with China
The West does not have an opportunity to prompt a policy U-turn in Moscow that divides Russia and China. But it could give Russia space to hedge against China in key areas
Articles
Russia’s indecision: Armenia and Azerbaijan return to violence
Moscow has declined to choose between its old friend Armenia and newer friend Azerbaijan. But the EU still has some way to go to make a difference through diplomacy.
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
State of the Union: How the energy crisis can strengthen EU unity
The European Commission president’s annual address has not pleased everybody – but its focus on energy reflects a deeper understanding of the nature of security today
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.
How the West can help Ukraine capitalise on the Kherson counteroffensive
Ukraine has lured a significant number of Russian troops south – but the country still needs significant help on arms deliveries
Suspicious bind: Iran’s relationship with Russia
Decision-makers in Tehran are developing the Iran-Russia relationship in significant ways, but they seem careful not to fully turn away from the West and towards Moscow
Unmoved: Why a ban on Russians’ visas won’t help
It is wishful thinking to believe that travel restrictions on Russian nationals would affect the Kremlin’s policies
Lessons for the West: Russia’s military failures in Ukraine
Ukraine has proven that it can counter Russian military tactics and strategy. To continue to do so, the country will require greater support from the West.
Power of need: Energy security in the Western Balkans
Western Balkans states need to join the EU’s energy transition. They can do so in several ways.
Russia’s war on Ukraine viewed from China
Westerners regard Russia’s war as an attack on the rules-based order, but Chinese scholars see it as another harbinger of the denouement of US hegemony. While Americans and Europeans can argue with this position, it would be a mistake not to take it seriously.
Specials
Mapping China’s rise in the Western Balkans
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas.
Russia in the grey zones
What role does Russia play in the breakaway regions of Eastern Europe?
Life in the grey zones: Reports from Europe’s breakaway regions
Locked in a shadowy life between war and peace, “grey zones” now litter the map of Eastern Europe
Minsk Monitor
Following high level ministerial meetings on Ukraine, ECFR's Wider Europe team report on the implementation the Minsk agreement
Podcasts
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
The future of open society with Leonard Benardo
Leonard Benardo joins Mark Leonard to discuss the great challenges open societies are currently experiencing
Ukraine in the age of unpeace with Fiona Hill
Fiona Hill and Mark Leonard talk to Jason Cowley talk to about the new paperback edition of Mark Leonard’s latest book, “The Age of Unpeace”, in light of the war in Ukraine
Lessons for a post-Ukraine world with Fareed Zakaria
Fareed Zakaria discusses the political, geopolitical, and geo-economic changes to the world order after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europe’s remarkable unity in the early days of the war is under threat from an emerging split – between those who want peace as soon as possible and those who favour justice for Ukraine
The new Davos man: Ukraine, energy, and global powers
What were this World Economic forum’s biggest themes? Which discussions on the Ukraine crisis were the most convincing?
European solidarity and the Russia-Ukraine war
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
Ukrainian identity and Russian strategy
What concepts define Ukrainian history and identity, and how is this important in understanding Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion?
Events
7 Sep
A world safe for autocracy? Gideon Rachman in conversation with Jana Puglierin
In conversation with Jana Puglierin, Gideon Rachman will present his book “The Age of the Strongmen”
8 Jul
New paperback released – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict
Mark Leonard will launch his newly released paperback edition of his book – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Penguin) with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its implications for geopolitics
23 Jun
Il Circolo dell’ECFR: Pandemia e guerra in Ucraina. La visione dei cittadini europei
Lo European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) e Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo organizzano a Torino una nuova edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sulla visione dei cittadini europei su pandemia e guerra in Ucraina
22 Jun
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the international system
Conference on the war in Ukraine and its consequences on the international system
7 Jun
Belarus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The challenge of dual political identity
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
17 May
It’s complicated: The Russia-China Axis
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
11 Apr
Crisi energetica. La Geopolitica del Green Deal. Sovranità energetica europea, conflitto in Ucraina e competizione tra Grandi Potenze
Il conflitto in Ucraina ha confermato l’urgenza di un’azione congiunta europea su energia e clima
6 Apr
Invasione russa dell’Ucraina: Ruolo dell’UE nel contesto regionale e globale
Gli europei richiedono maggiore cooperazione a lungo termine su diversi dossier, in particolare in materia di sicurezza e difesa
14 Apr
Представяне на доклад – Да разцъфтят хиляди контакти: Как Китай се съревновава за влияние в България
Софийският офис на Европейския съвет за външна политика има удоволствието да Ви покани на представянето на новия доклад на Владимир Шопов, „Да разцъфтят хиляди…
30 Mar
Europe and the refugee crisis: what needs to be done
What instruments does the EU have at its disposal to address the challenges related to the crisis? And what are the lessons learned from the refugee crisis in 2015?
In the media
Some members of the government are starting to reconsider the red line on supplying tanks
Rafael Loss describes how Ukraine’s battlefield successes have affected policy debates in Berlin
We cannot consider that there has been any form of legitimate voting in these regions under the current conditions
Marie Dumoulin talks about pro-Russian referendums in the occupied territories of Donbas, their lack of legitimacy, and their impact
Russia is totally discredited
If Russia’s vital interests were threatened, they would resort to it, this is the Russian nuclear doctrine, in this last discourse it becomes an attack on territorial integrity
The most important thing is that we provide Ukrainians with what they need. And the Poles and Germans can do that without exchanging rings
Piotr Buras diagnoses a leadership vacuum in the European Union in the course of the war in Ukraine, and notes Poland’s increased international standing