Early warning sign: This week’s energy summit presages a difficult COP30
With the US and China disengaged from climate diplomacy, Europeans must step forward to fill the gap
Russia
Why a Ukraine peacekeeping force could become a trap for Europe
The EU may need to deploy a peacekeeping force to Ukraine. However, without urgent regulatory changes, its member states are unprepared for the risks of direct confrontation with Russia
6 May
Europa auf sich gestellt? Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik in Umbruchszeiten
Die europäische Sicherheitspolitik befindet sich in einem fundamentalen Wandel. Die transatlantische Partnerschaft, einst Eckpfeiler europäischer Sicherheit, gerät durch eine veränderte US-amerikanische Außenpolitik zunehmend unter Druck
4 Jun
Das Imperium schlägt zurück? Russlands Großmachtansprüche und mitteleuropäische Bedrohungswahrnehmungen
Der Zerfall der Sowjetunion im Jahr 1991 nährte die Hoffnung auf eine friedlichere europäische Ordnung. Doch diese Hoffnung erwies sich als trügerisch. Unter Wladimir Putin…
Wartime mindset: Russia’s terror in Sumy requires a targeted European response
Despite recent ceasefire talks, Putin’s programme of terror in Ukraine continued with a Palm Sunday attack on Sumy. Europeans need to maintain a “wartime mindset” and persuade the US that Russia’s hostility is not at an end
Stumbling blocs: Why the EU’s future security depends on successful enlargement
Europe needs to strengthen its collective security in the face of a more volatile US, Russia and China. The EU’s successful streamlining of its accession process would secure the wider neighbourhood—and its geopolitical future
Spoil or shape: How Europeans can impact US-Russia talks on Ukraine
European policymakers have little direct influence over Moscow and Washington. However, they can use certain tools as leverage to help shape talks about Ukraine’s future—while ensuring to act in the EU’s best interest
Shallow seas and “shadow fleets”: Europe’s undersea infrastructure is dangerously vulnerable
Moscow’s latest disruptive measures against Europe involve targeting cables traversing the Baltic Sea. The EU needs to bolster its deterrence posture and secure its infrastructure against such sabotage
Why Europe’s withdrawal from humanitarian disarmament treaties could be a win for Russia
Several EU countries are withdrawing from, or considering withdrawing from, humanitarian disarmament treaties. While Europe must urgently strengthen its defence capabilities, it should not lose its foreign policy identity to Russia in the process
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
Publications
The bear who came to tea: Russia, Libya and the Kremlin’s playbook for fragile states
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
Farce then tragedy: Russian views of the West and what they mean for Ukraine
How the Kremlin’s view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
Late-stage Putinism: The war in Ukraine and Russia’s shifting ideology
The Kremlin is creating a new, more unified ideology, which it is disseminating among the Russian population and using to attract global south countries to a new conservative alliance
Life in exile: A new approach to Russian democrats in Europe
European governments need a more coordinated response to Russian democrats in exile – to give them certainty for the future and help guard against Kremlin subversion
Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
From Russia with love: How Moscow courts the global south
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has been competing with the West for the support of the rest of the world. But with all of its relationships now subordinate to its war effort, Moscow’s foreign policy is weakened
Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
Articles
Early warning sign: This week’s energy summit presages a difficult COP30
With the US and China disengaged from climate diplomacy, Europeans must step forward to fill the gap
Why a Ukraine peacekeeping force could become a trap for Europe
The EU may need to deploy a peacekeeping force to Ukraine. However, without urgent regulatory changes, its member states are unprepared for the risks of direct confrontation with Russia
Wartime mindset: Russia’s terror in Sumy requires a targeted European response
Despite recent ceasefire talks, Putin’s programme of terror in Ukraine continued with a Palm Sunday attack on Sumy. Europeans need to maintain a “wartime mindset” and persuade the US that Russia’s hostility is not at an end
Stumbling blocs: Why the EU’s future security depends on successful enlargement
Europe needs to strengthen its collective security in the face of a more volatile US, Russia and China. The EU’s successful streamlining of its accession process would secure the wider neighbourhood—and its geopolitical future
Spoil or shape: How Europeans can impact US-Russia talks on Ukraine
European policymakers have little direct influence over Moscow and Washington. However, they can use certain tools as leverage to help shape talks about Ukraine’s future—while ensuring to act in the EU’s best interest
Shallow seas and “shadow fleets”: Europe’s undersea infrastructure is dangerously vulnerable
Moscow’s latest disruptive measures against Europe involve targeting cables traversing the Baltic Sea. The EU needs to bolster its deterrence posture and secure its infrastructure against such sabotage
Why Europe’s withdrawal from humanitarian disarmament treaties could be a win for Russia
Several EU countries are withdrawing from, or considering withdrawing from, humanitarian disarmament treaties. While Europe must urgently strengthen its defence capabilities, it should not lose its foreign policy identity to Russia in the process
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
Why Russia’s actions pose a threat well beyond its neighbours
Europeans might be focused on deterring Russia’s military might—but they also need to consider the danger of its political gamble
Podcasts
Russia, Ukraine, and Europe’s war economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova and Nicu Popescu to discuss Russia, Ukraine, and the EU’s changing response to the conflict
Under the overcoat: God save the Tsar
The Russian Orthodox Church is supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine in its sermons, sending priests to the front, and collecting humanitarian aid for soldiers and…
A view from Moscow
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Kadri Liik and Valerie Hopkins to discuss what Russian society really thinks about war in Ukraine
The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
Events
4 Jun
Das Imperium schlägt zurück? Russlands Großmachtansprüche und mitteleuropäische Bedrohungswahrnehmungen
Der Zerfall der Sowjetunion im Jahr 1991 nährte die Hoffnung auf eine friedlichere europäische Ordnung. Doch diese Hoffnung erwies sich als trügerisch. Unter Wladimir Putin…
6 May
Europa auf sich gestellt? Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik in Umbruchszeiten
Die europäische Sicherheitspolitik befindet sich in einem fundamentalen Wandel. Die transatlantische Partnerschaft, einst Eckpfeiler europäischer Sicherheit, gerät durch eine veränderte US-amerikanische Außenpolitik zunehmend unter Druck
18 Mar
Riders on the storm: Trump, Europe and the future of Ukraine
Il dinner, in forma riservata e organizzato con il gentile sostegno della Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo, avrà luogo in inglese (no traduzione simultanea), secondo…
28 Nov
Countering disinformation as a global challenge
This international conference will discuss the main aspects of disinformation as a global challenge. It has been organised by the Embassy of the Republic of…
2 Jul
A “State-Civilization”: Russia’s ideological renewal after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
This webinar will explore the role of ideology in the day-to-day management of the Russian political regime
2 Jul
Economic Security 2.0: What is the EU’s next geoeconomics game plan?
As the European Union sets its new agenda, this webinar will delve into geoeconomics-related priorities for the incoming European Commission. Drawing on two new ECFR…
3 Jun
Disinformation storm. Managing the unmanageable?
The Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine has opened many European pandora boxes. Among them, energy and economic dependence from Russia; EU’s reaction time to Putin’s aggression; European disunity; the military and defense question; Europe’s fragility in the technological competition. Last, but not least, Europe’s exposure to external actors’ influence, with consequences on the information space and the “Open Internet” era, undermined like never before by disinformation
8 May
Rome Foreign Policy Club, Terza Edizione – Road to November 2024: prospettive e scenari globali delle elezioni americane
Nella sua edizione 2024, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani ricercatori italiani under 40 per costruire ipotesi di scenario che possano supportare la definizione di policy da parte del Ministero per gli Affari Esteri e la Cooperazione Internazionale. L’evento più significativo per l’anno in corso è indubbiamente rappresentato dalle elezioni americane di novembre il cui esito avrà enormi implicazioni su due aspetti cruciali del contesto internazionale: i rapporti con Cina e Sud Globale e le relazioni con Mosca alla luce del conflitto in Ucraina
9 Apr
Ukrainian Victory. How to bring sustainable peace back to Europe
The event, organised by the Embassy of Ukraine in Rome and the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Italian Federation for Human Rights (FIDU) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will discuss the current situation in Ukraine in a closed-door roundtable, with the participation of visiting Ukrainian experts
4 Mar
Charm offensive: What should the West make of Moscow’s Efforts to Court the Global South
Exploring Russia’s global engagement and its implications for the West
In the media
Libya can still be torn out of the Russian sphere of influence but in order to do so Europe must intervene