Russia’s growing military intervention in Belarus poses a frontline security challenge for Europe. The EU needs to develop a more pragmatic strategy based on protecting its eastern border and shaping Minsk’s autonomy away from Moscow
Jeremy Shapiro, with
Samuel Charap,
Bob Deen,
Hiski Haukkala,
Ivan Krastev,
Hanna Notte,
Jim O’Brien
Policy Brief
When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war
The new defence investment plan is weighed down by the habits of Britain’s defence establishment. By contrast, the British public appear readier to accept change
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
Rafael Loss, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, Jana Puglierin
Policy Brief
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
Russia’s growing military intervention in Belarus poses a frontline security challenge for Europe. The EU needs to develop a more pragmatic strategy based on protecting its eastern border and shaping Minsk’s autonomy away from Moscow
Jeremy Shapiro, with
Samuel Charap,
Bob Deen,
Hiski Haukkala,
Ivan Krastev,
Hanna Notte,
Jim O’Brien
Policy Brief
When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
Rafael Loss, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, Jana Puglierin
Policy Brief
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
After a string of votes marred by Russian interference, Moldova is gearing up to elect its new parliament in September. As the election approaches, the Kremlin seems to be intensifying its efforts to thwart the president’s pro-European party, PAS, threatening the country’s EU accession
Russia is rapidly developing—and militarising—its Arctic territory as a strategic priority, even amid its war on Ukraine. Add Trump’s coveting of Greenland to the mix, and the next confrontation in Europe could be in its High North
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
The new defence investment plan is weighed down by the habits of Britain’s defence establishment. By contrast, the British public appear readier to accept change
Amid fears of an Iran war-fuelled global food crisis, Moscow is weaponising access to its fertiliser supplies in both Western countries and developing economies
Russia is reaping the rewards from Trump’s war in Iran, but the benefits will likely not extend beyond the short term. Here’s how Europeans can make the long term arrive more quickly
Russia is backing China’s claims to Taiwan in return for economic and trade support. Europeans need to understand the real cost of Beijing-Moscow cooperation
Putin has long wanted to extract concessions from NATO. The three factors deterring Russia from an attack—a war in Ukraine, military capacity, and NATO strength—are under unprecedented strain
American gas supplies are helping Europe’s move away from Russian energy. Despite trade tensions under Donald Trump, reliance on the US carries fewer risks than reliance on Russia
The Russian Orthodox Church is supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine in its sermons, sending priests to the front, and collecting humanitarian aid for soldiers…
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump…
Europe today finds itself facing unprecedented global challenges and surrounded by transactional powers. Donald Trump is poised to redefine the global role of the US – revisiting alliances, challenging NATO, and treating security and trade alike as bargaining chips. China is pressing its advantage in technology, infrastructure, and diplomacy, asking Europeans to choose between principles…
Hotel NH Collection Roma Centro, Via dei Gracchi 324, 00192 Roma
·ECFR Rome
Nel contesto internazionale segnato da una crescente competizione sistemica, le minacce ibride rappresentano oggi una delle sfide più complesse per la sicurezza nazionale ed europea. L’incontro intende promuovere un confronto tra istituzioni, think tank e settore privato per analizzare la natura multivettoriale e sistemica di tali minacce, e individuare strategie di contrasto e strumenti…
Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has shown surprising resilience, though recent data suggests this war-fueled growth may be reaching its limits—a crucial factor since analysts have long identified the economy as key to Russia’s ability to sustain its military campaign. Simultaneously, we’re witnessing escalating Russian hybrid activities against Western nations, from drone incursions…
LUISS University, Viale Romania 32, 00197 Roma
·ECFR Rome
The event contributes to the wider Ukraine Recovery Conference by examining a critical dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the economic infrastructure underlying the conflict and the maritime security challenges it creates for Europe. It aims to create space for discussion among key experts and stakeholders on policy options to address Russian economic…
Center for American Studies, Via Michelangelo Caetani 32, Rome, Italy
·ECFR Rome
As Africa becomes an increasingly central arena for Russia’s interests, the role of the United States and China is undergoing significant transformation. With Trump’s return to the White House, a broader US economic-military repositioning in Africa to contain external influences seems to occur, while Beijing continues to deepen its structural economic presence across the…
Saal des Polnischen Instituts, Europa-Haus Leipzig, Markt 10, 04109 Leipzig
·ECFR Berlin
Der Zerfall der Sowjetunion im Jahr 1991 nährte die Hoffnung auf eine friedlichere europäische Ordnung. Doch diese Hoffnung erwies sich als trügerisch. Unter Wladimir Putin erlebt Russlands Großmachtanspruch eine gefährliche Renaissance, genährt von dem Wunsch, eine Einflusssphäre in Russlands Nachbarschaft wiederherzustellen. Die vom Kreml propagierte Idee einer “russischen Welt”, die russischsprachige Bevölkerungen im…
Open Space Chemnitz, Brückenstraße 10, 09111 Chemnitz
·ECFR Berlin
Die europäische Sicherheitspolitik befindet sich in einem fundamentalen Wandel. Die transatlantische Partnerschaft, einst Eckpfeiler europäischer Sicherheit, gerät durch eine veränderte US-amerikanische Außenpolitik zunehmend unter Druck. Gleichzeitig stellen Russland und China zunehmend eine Bedrohung für Europas Sicherheit und Wirtschaftsmodell dar. Diese Entwicklungen zwingen Europa zur dringenden Auseinandersetzung mit seiner eigenen Rolle und der Fähigkeit zur…
Palazzo Ripetta, Via di Ripetta 231, 00186 - Roma
·ECFR Rome
La Conferenza sulla Sicurezza di Monaco e i dialoghi in Arabia Saudita tra americani e russi hanno messo in luce il tentativo di creare un nuovo ordine mondiale, che potrebbe tuttavia minacciare l’assetto liberale e, soprattutto, indebolire l’Europa. La nuova amministrazione Trump, principale artefice di questi cambiamenti, rischia di mettere gli europei gli uni…