Social movements in North Africa increasingly focus on environmental concerns and the impact of climate change. Europeans must ensure their cooperation with governments in the region does not end up adding to activists’ grievances
Europe is learning to adapt to a hotter climate. It should take the same approach to economic dependencies: manage the consequences, but also change the conditions that created them
Despite all odds, there is now a realistic path towards ending the war in Gaza. Its success now depends on Israel. Europe could help tip the balance
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the latest phase of the US-Iran conflict, the escalating economic pressure campaign against Tehran and the risks of a prolonged war without a clear exit strategy
Social movements in North Africa increasingly focus on environmental concerns and the impact of climate change. Europeans must ensure their cooperation with governments in the region does not end up adding to activists’ grievances
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt to discuss the prospects for a Gaza ceasefire, escalating settler violence in the West Bank and how Israel’s upcoming general election could shape the future of the conflict
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel and Andrew Small to discuss how China’s industrial rise is shaking Germany—and Europe’s—economic foundations
Europe is learning to adapt to a hotter climate. It should take the same approach to economic dependencies: manage the consequences, but also change the conditions that created them
Mark Leonard welcomes Jörg Lau and Jana Puglierin to discuss Germany’s deepening political crisis, the rise of the AfD and how the country’s regional elections could impact Europe’s largest democracy
Mark Leonard welcomes Adriana Abdenur and Jorge Castañeda to discuss how China is reshaping the political imagination of Latin America
Despite all odds, there is now a realistic path towards ending the war in Gaza. Its success now depends on Israel. Europe could help tip the balance
Mark Leonard welcomes Loubna El Amine and Cobus van Staden to explore how younger generations in Africa and the Middle East are shaping perceptions of China, the West and the future
Ellie Geranmayeh is joined by Alia Moubayed, Randa Slim and Maha Yahya to discuss what the trilateral framework deal signed by Israel, the US and Lebanon means for the Lebanese stability
Ten years on from the referendum, the British electorate has moved on from its old divisions and—in a world of crisis—is embracing an ambitious move back towards the European Union
Europe’s energy, industrial and migration interests all converge in its southern neighbourhood, where rivals are eroding its influence. The new Pact for the Mediterranean can reverse this, but only if Brussels puts grand bargains on the table
Chinese electric vehicle brands are adapting to Western trade barriers by increasing their presence in the Middle East and North Africa. Europe’s response must go beyond merely closing the loopholes
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although these formats are fragmented and opportunistic, Europe should engage with them pragmatically
The thinkers and ideas of the rising nationalist right merit the political mainstream’s attention. Only by understanding them can it build a resilient counter-project
China’s manufacturing surge and trade tactics are dampening Europe’s clean-tech goals. Europeans need to forge coalitions across wary member states to secure their energy independence
A post-Western world is learning to love China, while Europeans are starting to fear America
Foreign technology companies cannot be entrusted with meeting Europe’s growing digital needs. This includes American big tech firms. Here’s what Europeans should do
Angola is increasingly active in the world. Here is how Europeans can cooperate with this rising middle power
Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate governance and keep Palestinian self-determination alive
Social movements in North Africa increasingly focus on environmental concerns and the impact of climate change. Europeans must ensure their cooperation with governments in the region does not end up adding to activists’ grievances
Europe is learning to adapt to a hotter climate. It should take the same approach to economic dependencies: manage the consequences, but also change the conditions that created them
Despite all odds, there is now a realistic path towards ending the war in Gaza. Its success now depends on Israel. Europe could help tip the balance
Some European leaders seem to think that abasing themselves for Donald Trump’s pleasure is necessary to save NATO and keep the Western alliance alive. But by so desperately clinging to the good old days of the transatlantic relationship, Europe’s leaders are risking more than just their dignity
The war between the US and Iran is destabilising North African economies, putting an already fragile region at the very edge of polycrisis
The new defence investment plan is weighed down by the habits of Britain’s defence establishment. By contrast, the British public appear readier to accept change
Andy Burnham, Britain’s likely next prime minister, is clear-eyed about his domestic political priorities. But, with the world order in flux, all eyes are on his foreign policy approach
Those who follow only intergovernmental negotiations or debates in the media might think that nothing has changed in the decade since the United Kingdom’s voters decided to leave the European Union. Yet new polling finds that large majorities on both sides of the English Channel now support re-engagement
Israel is accelerating its settler project and deepening conflict, frustrating many EU member states. The bloc should use its trade and financial tools to impose costs and secure a future for Palestinians
Buying new kit is easy. The real challenge for European militaries is to rethink how they organise themselves—and how they plan to fight
America and Israel have bombed Iran since 2025 to block Tehran’s path to nuclear weapons. ECFR’s interactive dashboard, updated monthly, assesses current evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities to determine which of six possible scenarios is most likely
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
ECFR’s Differentiation Tracker provides a snapshot of third state relations with Israel – and the extent to which these contain a clearly defined territorial definition that explicitly excludes Israeli settlements constructed on occupied territory in line with UNSCR 2334
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs
Europeans remain unwilling to renew their thinking on nuclear deterrence, despite growing strategic instability. Their stated goal of “strategic autonomy” will remain an empty phrase until they engage seriously on this matter
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the latest phase of the US-Iran conflict, the escalating economic pressure campaign against Tehran and the risks of a prolonged war without a clear exit strategy
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt to discuss the prospects for a Gaza ceasefire, escalating settler violence in the West Bank and how Israel’s upcoming general election could shape the future of the conflict
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel and Andrew Small to discuss how China’s industrial rise is shaking Germany—and Europe’s—economic foundations
Mark Leonard welcomes Jörg Lau and Jana Puglierin to discuss Germany’s deepening political crisis, the rise of the AfD and how the country’s regional elections could impact Europe’s largest democracy
Mark Leonard welcomes Adriana Abdenur and Jorge Castañeda to discuss how China is reshaping the political imagination of Latin America
Mark Leonard welcomes Loubna El Amine and Cobus van Staden to explore how younger generations in Africa and the Middle East are shaping perceptions of China, the West and the future
Ellie Geranmayeh is joined by Alia Moubayed, Randa Slim and Maha Yahya to discuss what the trilateral framework deal signed by Israel, the US and Lebanon means for the Lebanese stability
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska to discuss last week’s NATO summit and how Europe can prepare for a future in which American security guarantees are no longer assured
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Cliffe to discuss Marine Le Pen’s return to the French presidential race
Mark Leonard welcomes Mike Kuiken and Randy Schriver to examine the evolving US-China relationship and what it means for Europe
In a private discussion on EU and UK attitudes towards a renewed partnership, a decade after the referendum, Mark Leonard and Marcus Roberts will present some embargoed data from ECFR and Mandate looking at views in the UK but also across Europe on different modalities of the EU-UK relationship going forward…
Reflecting on the findings from our previous events and drawing on Mark Leonard’s latest IPPR paper, Britain’s strategy for a decade of danger: Our nation, our continent, our world, the discussion will examine competing visions for Britain’s role in the world—from renewed reliance on the US, to a more globally diversified approach, to a strategic pivot…
The special relationship has rarely felt so lacking in speciality. Donald Trump imposes tariffs at a whim, starts wars of choice without consultation, demands UK military participation in them, and then threatens abandonment if he doesn’t get it; some days all before lunch. All this upset has caused many in the UK and beyond to…
As the UK pursues its ambition to become a “clean energy superpower”, it will have to navigate working with major geopolitical partners, like China and the EU, and the strategic trade-offs involved with aligning closer with one over the other. China has become an increasingly important supplier, investor, and manufacturer across key clean technologies,…
While the war with Iran continues to escalate, Donald Trump is still set to visit China with which the stakes extend from tariffs and intensifying geopolitical rivalry. Under its latest 5-year plan, Beijing is doubling down on a centralised, export-dominated system that will intensify competition with both the US and Europe. Trump and Xi…
As the rise of the new right and “MAGA-ization” of politics is having a greater impact on the UK and Europe, this event will aim to discuss these new movements – looking at their critique of the status-quo, their electoral base, policy agenda and organising and communication methods. Having spent the past year talking to…
An event hosted by Rockefeller Foundation and the European Council on Foreign Relations, focused on the need for effective international cooperation that meets today’s challenges. We will begin with remarks by a special guest, former U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo, and then bring in the thoughts of government officials, civil society, the private…
The event will explore recent developments in the international landscape and reflect on how Europeans can respond to an evolving global context. Mark Leonard will also present the main findings from his upcoming book ‘Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail‘. The discussion is organised in partnership with the Delegation of the…
Polityka Insight and ECFR Warsaw invite you to join us for the livestream of this year’s Warsaw European Conversation. When Europe was planning its 2021–2027 budget back in 2019, hardly anyone had heard of COVID-19, few could have imagined a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, and Donald Trump was defending himself against…
The international system is no longer held together by a single dominant vision of order. While the US is retreating from its dominant role, China and Russia are advancing competing models of order. In this context, middle powers are actively pursuing new strategies to secure their autonomy and expand their influence. They are challenging established hierarchies, reshaping economic and connectivity networks, and building alternative forms of cooperation that…
Ellie Geranmayeh and Jeremy Shapiro on Iran’s resilience after the US confrontation
