The world in 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Jana Kobzová, Andrew Small and Alex Vines to discuss upcoming political changes in 2026
Experts & Staff
Julien Barnes-Dacey
Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Areas of expertise
Middle East and North Africa
Languages
English, French, Arabic
Biography
Julien Barnes-Dacey is the director of the Middle East & North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He works on European policy towards the wider region, with a particular focus on Syria and regional geopolitics.
Barnes-Dacey’s recent publications include “Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East,” “Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order,” and “Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East.” His work has been published in the likes of Foreign Policy, Politico, the Financial Times, and the New York Times.
Immediately prior to joining ECFR Barnes-Dacey headed the MENA practice at Control Risks, a private sector consultancy. Before this he worked as a journalist across the Middle East. Based in Syria from 2007 to 2010, he reported for publications including the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Christian Science Monitor. He worked across Iraq as editor of Niqash and was also based in Egypt. Barnes-Dacey was an assistant foreign editor for UK television’s Channel 4 News, and a field producer for Al Jazeera International.
Barnes-Dacey holds a BA in history from the London School of Economics, an MA in Middle Eastern Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies, and studied Arabic at the Institut Français du Proche-Orient.
Trump’s Gaza plan: How Europe can help make it happen
European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza
Qatar quake: Israel blows another hole in Middle East security
The Doha strike risks deepening regional scepticism of Western security partnerships in the Middle East. Europe needs to do much more to pressure Israel into ending the war in Gaza and curbing its regional belligerence
Enough is enough: Europe needs to oppose Israel’s aggression
Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser, threatening key European interests. Europe must avoid making the same mistakes that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion, prioritise diplomacy and urge the US not to get entangled in a war with Iran
Crisis and collapse: Europe’s intervention in Gaza
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey to unpack the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Europe’s escalating response
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Africa
Rewiring alliances: Africa-Europe-Gulf relations amid geopolitical turmoil
Drawing on insights from a recent ECFR policy brief, “Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa“, this event aims to explore the growing engagement between Africa and the Gulf, the role of Europe in this evolving dynamic, and whether this trilateral relationship could offer a more resilient model of cooperation in today’s…
The road ahead: Six ways Europeans can urgently support a stable Syria
After the fall of Assad, many Syrians hope for a better future. But intense political and economic challenges risk derailing the transition. Europeans urgently need to do more to help stabilise Syria’s path in line with their own core interests
The fall of Assad: Europeans have an opportunity to help forge a new Syria
Following a ten-day advance, Syrian rebels have toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad. European governments should step up support for a stabilising, power-sharing transition to protect their regional interests – and Syria’s citizens
Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
Publications
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Mending fences: Europe’s stake in the Saudi-Iran detente
Saudi-Iran diplomacy offers a rare path to prevent deepening conflict in the Middle East and support regional stability. Europeans should see this diplomacy as a chance to address their core interests, and not just as Iran’s attempt to bypass Western pressure
Beyond proxies: Iran’s deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflict out into the open – and Lebanon and Syria are potential flashpoints for further escalation
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East
Europeans need to deal with the Middle East as it is rather than as they want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the southern neighbourhood
To achieve greater sovereignty, Europe needs to push back against rival powers, build leverage in armed conflicts, and be more effective in supporting reform
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus
European governments should pivot to a strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future
To end a war: Europe’s role in bringing peace to Syria
National politics need to be front and centre in de-escalation efforts
Articles
Trump’s Gaza plan: How Europe can help make it happen
European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza
Qatar quake: Israel blows another hole in Middle East security
The Doha strike risks deepening regional scepticism of Western security partnerships in the Middle East. Europe needs to do much more to pressure Israel into ending the war in Gaza and curbing its regional belligerence
Enough is enough: Europe needs to oppose Israel’s aggression
Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser, threatening key European interests. Europe must avoid making the same mistakes that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion, prioritise diplomacy and urge the US not to get entangled in a war with Iran
The road ahead: Six ways Europeans can urgently support a stable Syria
After the fall of Assad, many Syrians hope for a better future. But intense political and economic challenges risk derailing the transition. Europeans urgently need to do more to help stabilise Syria’s path in line with their own core interests
The fall of Assad: Europeans have an opportunity to help forge a new Syria
Following a ten-day advance, Syrian rebels have toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad. European governments should step up support for a stabilising, power-sharing transition to protect their regional interests – and Syria’s citizens
Back to the battlefield: A new chapter in Syria’s civil war
Syrian rebel forces have seized Aleppo, reigniting the country’s civil war. As Bashar al-Assad remobilises, the country is likely to be sucked into a new cycle of devastating violence
Dangerous manoeuvres: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0
As Donald Trump prepares for his second US presidency, Iranian and Israeli military manoeuvring during President Biden’s lame-duck period risks drawing the US into all-out war in the Middle East
The point of no return: Why the EU must not send Syrians refugees back
European leaders are debating how to increase Syrian refugee returns. But rather than pushing for deportations, the bloc should focus on addressing security concerns and improving economic conditions inside Syria to encourage voluntary returns
After Nasrallah: Ways to de-escalate the burgeoning Middle East conflict
Europeans should use their leverage with Israel and Iran to work towards regional peace
Israel’s unwinnable wars: The path to de-escalation in the Middle East
The Middle East is on the brink of a full-blown regional conflict. Western efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah will fail without pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza
Specials
The Gaza crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
The world in 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Jana Kobzová, Andrew Small and Alex Vines to discuss upcoming political changes in 2026
Crisis and collapse: Europe’s intervention in Gaza
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey to unpack the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Europe’s escalating response
Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
Ceasefire in Lebanon
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon
Regional war in the Middle East: Anatomy of a conflict one year after 7 October
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the regional war in the Middle East one year on from the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel
Podcast special: Iran attacks Israel
On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to have…
The future of the war in Gaza
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the current situation in Gaza and the possible futures of the war
Podcast special: Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel
Mark Leonard welcomes Eran Etzion, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss Hamas’s offensive against Israel and its effects on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the wider Middle East
The Iran-Saudi deal and its impact
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Andrew Small, to talk about the new Saudi – Iran deal
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
Events
Africa
Rewiring alliances: Africa-Europe-Gulf relations amid geopolitical turmoil
Drawing on insights from a recent ECFR policy brief, “Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa“, this event aims to explore the growing engagement between Africa and the Gulf, the role of Europe in this evolving dynamic, and whether this trilateral relationship could offer a more resilient model of cooperation in today’s…
Africa
How Europeans can help stabilise the Sahel
A decade of military, humanitarian, and developmental European interventions in the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have failed comprehensively. Yet, European governments must accept that engagement, however ugly, is their only hope of advancing their strategic priority of a stable Sahel region. In this event, ECFR Africa reflects on recent developments and…
Middle East and North Africa
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
13
Dec
Middle East and North Africa
Part of the problem? A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
How can Europeans more effectively advance their human rights agenda as part of, and while maintaining, their broader relationships with regional states?
In the media
Julien Barnes-Dacey on the implications of Trump’s efforts to establish a precedent with the Gaza Peace Board
Julien Barnes-Dacey on Trump’s intention to expand the Board of Peace into a global conflict-mediating body that bypasses the UN
Julien Barnes-Dacey on the clashes between the Syrian government and Kurdish forces in Aleppo
Julien Barnes-Dacey on the stalemate between the Syrian government and the SDF as being caused by a difference in political standpoint
Julien Barnes-Dayec on how Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa centralises power under his leadership