Europe’s role in a post-American Middle East
Who is filling the vacuum which the US is increasingly leaving behind in the MENA region? How are regional actors reacting to US disengagement?
Experts & Staff
Julien Barnes-Dacey
Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Areas of expertise
Middle East and North Africa
Languages
English, French, Arabic
Biography
Julien Barnes-Dacey is the director of the Middle East & North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He works on European policy towards the wider region, with a particular focus on Syria and regional geopolitics.
Barnes-Dacey’s recent publications include “Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus,” “Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the southern neighbourhood,” and “Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East.” His work has been published widely including in Foreign Policy, Politico, the Financial Times, and the New York Times.
Barnes-Dacey has worked as a researcher and journalist across the Middle East. Based in Syria from 2007 to 2010, he reported for the Wall Street Journal and The Christian Science Monitor. He worked across Iraq as editor of Niqash.Org and was previously based in Egypt, reporting for the Cairo Times. He also headed the MENA practice at Control Risks, a private sector political consultancy based in London.
Barnes-Dacey holds a BA in history from the London School of Economics, an MA in Middle Eastern Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies, and studied Arabic at the Institut Français du Proche-Orient.
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
The election of President Ebrahim Raisi and the future of Iran
Does the election of Raisi represent a significant change of direction following the term of President Rouhani?
Cooling-off: How Europe can help stabilise the Middle East
As countries across the Middle East pause to take stock of recent conflicts, Europeans need to do more to support dialogue
Understanding the conflict in Western Sahara
What is the Western Sahara conflict is all about, and how will the most recent developments between Morocco and Spain influence this conflict?
First aid: How Russia and the West can help Syrians in Idlib
A one-year extension to the current aid arrangements would be no one’s first choice – but would ensure civilians in Idlib continue to receive help
How the Turkey-UAE Rivalry is remaking the Middle East
How can the EU prevent the Turkey-UAE rivalry from destabilising European security and foreign policy?
A decade of death and ruin: How Europe can create breathing space in Syria
Circumventing the regime to support Syrians on the ground is difficult but Europeans need to adjust their Syria policy in favour of this effort
Force of habit: Why the US risks being sucked into a military showdown with Iran
The US needs to swiftly re-energise diplomacy with Iran rather than be sucked into new tit-for-tat military strikes
The narrow path to agreement: How Europe should support the Iran nuclear deal
If European governments want to salvage the deal before it is too late, while also opening up the prospect of negotiations with Iran on regional security, they need to quickly and clearly reject the argument that the two issues should be bundled together
Publications
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the southern neighbourhood
To achieve greater sovereignty, Europe needs to push back against rival powers, build leverage in armed conflicts, and be more effective in supporting reform
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus
European governments should pivot to a strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future
To end a war: Europe’s role in bringing peace to Syria
National politics need to be front and centre in de-escalation efforts
The war next door: Syria and the erosion of stability in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey
Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have so far been resilient to the spillover from Syria’s civil war, but now the region’s stability is hanging by a thread
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU’s diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood’s growing impact on the EU
Syrian Diplomacy Renewed: From Vienna to Raqqa
An “Islamic State first” strategy, that neglects the urgent need to secure political progress and de-escalation in Syria will fail
Responding to an assertive Gulf
Europe’s relationships with the six Arab Gulf states that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have failed to keep up with their increasing importance
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2015
The fifth edition of ECFR’s Foreign Policy Scorecard examines EU’s response to a year of crisis
Articles
Cooling-off: How Europe can help stabilise the Middle East
As countries across the Middle East pause to take stock of recent conflicts, Europeans need to do more to support dialogue
First aid: How Russia and the West can help Syrians in Idlib
A one-year extension to the current aid arrangements would be no one’s first choice – but would ensure civilians in Idlib continue to receive help
A decade of death and ruin: How Europe can create breathing space in Syria
Circumventing the regime to support Syrians on the ground is difficult but Europeans need to adjust their Syria policy in favour of this effort
Force of habit: Why the US risks being sucked into a military showdown with Iran
The US needs to swiftly re-energise diplomacy with Iran rather than be sucked into new tit-for-tat military strikes
The narrow path to agreement: How Europe should support the Iran nuclear deal
If European governments want to salvage the deal before it is too late, while also opening up the prospect of negotiations with Iran on regional security, they need to quickly and clearly reject the argument that the two issues should be bundled together
How a Biden win could transform US policy in the Middle East and North Africa
Victory for Joe Biden is likely to bring three big policy shifts in the region, opening new possibilities and challenges for Europeans
Trump or Biden: Three ways to make Europe matter in the Middle East
The US will continue to retreat from the Middle East and North Africa, whoever wins the presidency. Europe needs to get its house in order to defend its interests.
Economic meltdown in the Middle East: How Europe can soften the impact
Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq are all teetering on the brink of economic collapse. Europe cannot afford to be a helpless bystander.
Infected: The impact of the coronavirus on the Middle East and north Africa
The coronavirus has hit the Middle East and north Africa at a time when the region is already burdened with multiple problems, including a series…
How Europe should respond to the assault on Idlib
A horrific humanitarian crisis is unfolding on Europe’s doorstep and Europeans are nowhere to be seen.
Specials
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria.
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
Europe’s role in a post-American Middle East
Who is filling the vacuum which the US is increasingly leaving behind in the MENA region? How are regional actors reacting to US disengagement?
The election of President Ebrahim Raisi and the future of Iran
Does the election of Raisi represent a significant change of direction following the term of President Rouhani?
Understanding the conflict in Western Sahara
What is the Western Sahara conflict is all about, and how will the most recent developments between Morocco and Spain influence this conflict?
How the Turkey-UAE Rivalry is remaking the Middle East
How can the EU prevent the Turkey-UAE rivalry from destabilising European security and foreign policy?
Europe’s new transatlantic bargain for Biden’s America
When Biden enters the White House, he will look for a Europe that brings solutions rather than problems. Europeans should show they can be an equal partner & offer him a new transatlantic bargain.
ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin
ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin, Spokesman and Senior Advisor to the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Chaired by Julien Barnes-Dacey, Director of ECFR’s…
Geopolitics in the coronavirus era – who will be crowned winner?
Last week’s episode saw our experts dissecting the coronavirus’ implications for Europe. In today's episode, we’re breaking down how the crisis is unfolding in the…
Many elephants in the room: the EU and the Turkey, Syria, coronavirus and refugee crises
The European Union faces a multi-crisis situation at the moment. As the conflict in Idlib and the circumstances at the Greek-Turkish border has erupted, Europe…
De “facto declaration of war”? – Soleimani’s killing as turning point in the Middle East
With the US-killing of the Iranian military leader, Qassem Soleimani, the Middle East has been yet again sent in the heart to geopolitical uncertainty and…
Europe with no cards to play: Erdoğan, Trump, and Europe’s weaknesses
Turkey's offensive into northeast Syria is moving at an unprecedented pace with grave consequences. Europe's utter irrelevance in the face of US withdrawal from the Turkish/Syrian…
In the media
The Biden administration is not going to invest in placing the Assad regime under significant pressure […]The result is regional actors recalibrating
Julien Barnes-Dacey comments on how the US is using a softer touch in the Middle East under President Joe Biden
The region’s been crowded out by other global crises, but there’s also a sense of Western hopelessness after so many years of crisis
The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated significantly in more countries and in more ways in the last two years, observes Julien Barnes-Dacey
I think calling it ‘diplomatic rehabilitation’ goes a bit too far, but a kind of regional re-integration has been going on for a while now
Julien Barnes-Dacey analyzes what the new Syrian-Jordanian deal on energy for Lebanon means for Syria
Frankly, it’s just about a somewhat functioning government and a few reforms. Not the kind of comprehensive reforms we were talking about six months ago.
Almost everywhere in Europe, the Libyan government will now be given some time, says Julien Barnes-Dacey
The contacts are fairly low level and distant and we would fall into a trap of our own making if we equated that to diplomatic recognition
Julien Barnes-Dacey says that maintaining low level contacts with the Syrian regime does not contradict the EU’s position on diplomatic recognition