The future of the war in Gaza

Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the current situation in Gaza and the possible futures of the war

The death toll in Gaza now exceeds 30,000. Five months into the war, much of the sympathy the international community had for Israel following the 7 October attacks has evaporated amid such violence and destruction.

In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Hugh Lovatt, director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme Julien Barnes-Dacey, and research director and director of ECFR’s new US programme Jeremy Shapiro. Together, they discuss the current situation in Gaza and how the war could create the opportunity for a “grand bargain” which could unblock the previously stuck status quo and solve the decades-long Arab-Israeli conflict. How likely is it that there will be a ceasefire in time for Ramadan? How are US and European governments responding to the war? And what are the odds that we could end up with a grand bargain that results in a two-state solution?

This episode was recorded on 7 March 2024.


The Gaza Crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s Shifting Battle Lines by Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Cinzia Bianco

The Secret World: A History of Intelligence by Christopher Andrew

Crash Landing on You – a tvN television series

The Imperfectionists by Tom Rachman

Gaza: A History by Jean-Pierre Filiu

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