America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
US Domestic Politics
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
Why Ron DeSantis is not the most consequential Trump challenger in the US presidential race
All eyes are on the competition between DeSantis and Trump. But Tim Scott may be the one to watch
The German scapegoat: Berlin’s inevitable role in the US presidential election
Germany cannot avoid being dragged into election debates in the US. On defence, it should focus on its own national security interests
Peak Atlantic unity?
A few short years after being declared brain dead, the transatlantic alliance is thriving, with Americans and Europeans coordinating their response to Russian aggression and sharing similar views on China. But new storm clouds are gathering, and Europeans must prepare for darker days ahead.
Polarised power: The three Republican ‘tribes’ that could define America’s relationship with the world
Three Republican ‘tribes’ are competing to write their next president’s US foreign policy. Whether ‘restrainers,’ ‘prioritisers,’ or ‘primacists’ emerge on top will have profound implications for Europe and the globe
Midterm blues: What a Republican win could mean for Europe, Ukraine, and the return of Trump
A Republican-controlled Congress could have significant consequences for the EU – on funding for Ukraine, but also at the level of political symbolism and attitudes towards Europe’s conservative strongmen
Small victories: Why US-Russia relations could improve under Biden
The Biden administration’s approach to Nord Stream 2 indicates that it could ease the pressure on Russia in some of the most important spheres. But a new crisis could quickly lead to a new low in US-Russia relations.
5 May
Transatlantic relations after President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office
How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe? And how does the public in European countries view Biden’s America?
Is Atlanticist Denmark turning more European?
Donald Trump may have done lasting damage to the United States’ reputation even in pro-American Denmark
Publications
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Articles
America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
Why Ron DeSantis is not the most consequential Trump challenger in the US presidential race
All eyes are on the competition between DeSantis and Trump. But Tim Scott may be the one to watch
The German scapegoat: Berlin’s inevitable role in the US presidential election
Germany cannot avoid being dragged into election debates in the US. On defence, it should focus on its own national security interests
Peak Atlantic unity?
A few short years after being declared brain dead, the transatlantic alliance is thriving, with Americans and Europeans coordinating their response to Russian aggression and sharing similar views on China. But new storm clouds are gathering, and Europeans must prepare for darker days ahead.
Polarised power: The three Republican ‘tribes’ that could define America’s relationship with the world
Three Republican ‘tribes’ are competing to write their next president’s US foreign policy. Whether ‘restrainers,’ ‘prioritisers,’ or ‘primacists’ emerge on top will have profound implications for Europe and the globe
Midterm blues: What a Republican win could mean for Europe, Ukraine, and the return of Trump
A Republican-controlled Congress could have significant consequences for the EU – on funding for Ukraine, but also at the level of political symbolism and attitudes towards Europe’s conservative strongmen
Small victories: Why US-Russia relations could improve under Biden
The Biden administration’s approach to Nord Stream 2 indicates that it could ease the pressure on Russia in some of the most important spheres. But a new crisis could quickly lead to a new low in US-Russia relations.
Is Atlanticist Denmark turning more European?
Donald Trump may have done lasting damage to the United States’ reputation even in pro-American Denmark
The other contagion: Why the US Capitol attack is a warning to populists
From now on, citizens will understand much more clearly why it is said that democracies die bit by bit, until they suddenly succumb and it is too late
How Biden can make a big difference in the Western Balkans
Joe Biden has a longstanding relationship with the Western Balkans. A re-energised US policy on the region could be transformative, especially when working in tandem with the EU
Podcasts
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
Europe’s new transatlantic bargain for Biden’s America
When Biden enters the White House, he will look for a Europe that brings solutions rather than problems. Europeans should show they can be an equal partner & offer him a new transatlantic bargain.
Anxious allies: European sovereignty after the US election
How much impact does the future US president have on the very concept of European sovereignty? Will the idea and initiatives to build more strategic autonomy in Europe be put back to bed with Joe Biden in the White House?
Europe’s role in America’s election
How will and can Europeans react in the event of a post-election chaos in the US? The election day is fast approaching yet the outcome still…
Trump’s dirty tricks
Although US President Donald Trump’s efforts to undermine the election are shameless, they are still more subtle than the outright election rigging that one finds…
The Biden effect and the future of US-Europe relations | Part II
After last week’s discussion with Matt Duss and Jeremy Shapiro, Mark Leonard follows up by gathering the European views on a possible Biden win and…
The Biden effect and the future of US-Europe relations | Part I
The United States presidential election is approaching and there is no doubt that its result will have a significant and large-scale impact on global politics
Events
5 May
Transatlantic relations after President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office
How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe? And how does the public in European countries view Biden’s America?
17 Nov
ECFR x Intelligence² Germany – Debate: Joe Biden won’t fix the transatlantic relationship
From flagrant hostility towards NATO and the EU to exiting the Iran deal and Paris Climate Agreement, Donald Trump has done significant damage to transatlantic…
17 Nov
ECFR MENA Fireside Chat with Philip Gordon: Assessing US policy towards the Middle East
Zoom registration required, see link below. After President-elect Joe Biden’s victory at the US elections, the ECFR MENA team will host a fireside chat…
In the media
None of the upcoming national European elections will ever undermine or weaken Europe’s solidarity towards Ukraine. But American elections might represent a turning point.
Teresa Coratella comments on the war in Ukraine focusing on the internal frictions within the transatlantic coalition
If a change in US policy resulted in a Russian victory in Ukraine, it could very well destroy the very idea that the US is committed to the defence of Europe
Célia Belin, Majda Ruge and Jeremy Shapiro analyse what the return of a Republican president to power in Washington would mean for Europe
[Europe should] use these years to prepare for a scenario in which the US no longer sees its involvement in Europe as a key American interest
Who is going to be president in 2024 is still completely open, even after the mid-term elections. But Europe should prepare itself, warns Jana Puglierin.
Even if US support for Ukraine remains as strong as it is now, Europe will have to get much more involved, especially in terms of financial and military aid
Tara Varma says the midterm elections have once again displayed the extent to which Europe still depends on the United States