The New Politics with Gladden Pappin
Mark Leonard is joined by Gladden Pappin to explore the liberal international order and the recent shift in EU-US relations
US Domestic Politics
LA falling: What Trump’s anti-immigration push means for transatlantic democracy
Donald Trump has deployed the National Guard after mass protests against his immigration policy in LA. Europeans should be wary of his drift towards authoritarianism—and to not get caught up in the furore
The bully’s pulpit: Finding patterns in Trump’s use of military force
Over two presidential terms, Donald Trump has used threats to intimidate his adversaries and mostly only employed force against his weaker victims. This pattern of bullying provides an insight into his future decision-making
100 days of Trump
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
Glitch in the matrix: How Europeans should respond to the Trump-Musk tech agenda
Elon Musk and Donald Trump are setting out America’s new approach to digital technology—including social media and AI. The EU must understand their motivations and work with willing partners to curb negative influence in the global digital sphere
Trump’s return: A disaster for Gaza, a challenge for Europe
Pro-Israel hardliners dominate Trump’s new administration, leaving Palestinians with little hope for justice. European leaders can counterbalance this by supporting Palestinian self-determination and enforcing accountability
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Touching the void: Human rights in foreign policy under Trump 2.0
Donald Trump’s second presidential administration is imminent. The European Union should prioritise international collaboration to challenge America’s likely hardline approach to human rights
Reste calme: Why Europeans should take a measured approach towards Trump in Africa
During his first presidency, Donald Trump’s Africa policy was defined by a series of gaffs and confused foreign policy decisions. His re-election is a wake-up call to European governments that building a strong relationship with the world’s fastest-growing continent is more vital than ever
Publications
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
Dark money politics: Why Europe should join Biden’s fight against corruption
European policymakers should set up high-profile national institutions that are charged with tackling corruption and capable of working within an international network
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Articles
LA falling: What Trump’s anti-immigration push means for transatlantic democracy
Donald Trump has deployed the National Guard after mass protests against his immigration policy in LA. Europeans should be wary of his drift towards authoritarianism—and to not get caught up in the furore
The bully’s pulpit: Finding patterns in Trump’s use of military force
Over two presidential terms, Donald Trump has used threats to intimidate his adversaries and mostly only employed force against his weaker victims. This pattern of bullying provides an insight into his future decision-making
Glitch in the matrix: How Europeans should respond to the Trump-Musk tech agenda
Elon Musk and Donald Trump are setting out America’s new approach to digital technology—including social media and AI. The EU must understand their motivations and work with willing partners to curb negative influence in the global digital sphere
Trump’s return: A disaster for Gaza, a challenge for Europe
Pro-Israel hardliners dominate Trump’s new administration, leaving Palestinians with little hope for justice. European leaders can counterbalance this by supporting Palestinian self-determination and enforcing accountability
Touching the void: Human rights in foreign policy under Trump 2.0
Donald Trump’s second presidential administration is imminent. The European Union should prioritise international collaboration to challenge America’s likely hardline approach to human rights
Reste calme: Why Europeans should take a measured approach towards Trump in Africa
During his first presidency, Donald Trump’s Africa policy was defined by a series of gaffs and confused foreign policy decisions. His re-election is a wake-up call to European governments that building a strong relationship with the world’s fastest-growing continent is more vital than ever
The new Futurism: What a Meloni-Musk alliance could mean for Europe
Elon Musk’s bold vision for technological progress aligns with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s nationalist agenda, offering Italy’s right-wing movement a modern cultural framework while posing challenges for European unity
Between two Donalds: How Tusk’s relationship with Trump could foster EU-US cooperation
The United States and Poland have a historic allyship. Despite Donald Tusk and Donald Trump harbouring opposing ideological motivations, there remains scope for the two countries to work together in the interest of European security
When East meets West meets Trump’s America: European diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific
The return of Donald Trump could shake the fundamentals of US relationships in the Indo-Pacific. Here’s how Europeans should act
Up close and personnel: What Donald Trump’s administrative picks mean for US foreign policy and Europe
Donald Trump is choosing the cabinet for his second administration. Who will oversee key foreign policy positions – and whether they are a ‘primacist’, ‘prioritiser’, or ‘restrainer’ – will determine America’s future global outreach
Podcasts
The New Politics with Gladden Pappin
Mark Leonard is joined by Gladden Pappin to explore the liberal international order and the recent shift in EU-US relations
100 days of Trump
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
From crisis to crisis: Evaluating Biden’s foreign policy
Mark Leonard welcomes Alexander Ward and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss Biden’s foreign policy performance
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
Europe’s new transatlantic bargain for Biden’s America
When Biden enters the White House, he will look for a Europe that brings solutions rather than problems. Europeans should show they can be an equal partner & offer him a new transatlantic bargain
Anxious allies: European sovereignty after the US election
How much impact does the future US president have on the very concept of European sovereignty? Will the idea and initiatives to build more strategic autonomy in Europe be put back to bed with Joe Biden in the White House?
Europe’s role in America’s election
How will and can Europeans react in the event of a post-election chaos in the US? The election day is fast approaching yet the outcome still…
Trump’s dirty tricks
Although US President Donald Trump’s efforts to undermine the election are shameless, they are still more subtle than the outright election rigging that one finds…
The Biden effect and the future of US-Europe relations | Part II
After last week’s discussion with Matt Duss and Jeremy Shapiro, Mark Leonard follows up by gathering the European views on a possible Biden win and…
Events
United States
Dormant NATO: Future Prospects and Challenges
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of “strategic autonomy”. Even though Europeans have significantly increased their defence spending over the past two years, there is still a massive transatlantic imbalance in NATO. The potential re-election of Donald…
12
Jun
United States
The Crossroads of Democracy: Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 US Presidential Election
Foreign policy seldom plays much of a role in American presidential elections, but the consequences of those contests can be profound for America’s allies in Europe and for the world. The 2024 election will have significant implications for American foreign policy, whatever the outcome. To discuss how the election results are likely to influence America’s…
11
Jun
European Power
Sanctions, contrôles aux exportations, tarifs douaniers… Comment “Trump-proofer” l’économie européenne ? A Black Coffee Morning
À seulement six mois de l’élection présidentielle américaine de novembre, les Européens s’efforcent de se préparer à une possible réélection de Donald Trump. Dans le domaine économique, un retour de Trump à la Maison Blanche pourrait notamment se traduire par l’imposition de droits de douane américains élevés sur les importations en provenance d’Europe, par un élargissement des…
European Power
ECFR’s Election Insights: Implications for Europe’s foreign policy agenda
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR offices across European capitals, the discussion will explore election outcomes in key EU member states – Bulgaria, France, Germany and Italy – and examine how the political reconfigurations in Brussels,…
8
May
Asia
Rome Foreign Policy Club, Terza Edizione – Road to November 2024: prospettive e scenari globali delle elezioni americane
Nella sua edizione 2024, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani ricercatori italiani under 40 per costruire ipotesi di scenario che possano supportare la definizione di policy da parte del Ministero per gli Affari Esteri e la Cooperazione Internazionale. L’evento più significativo per l’anno in corso è indubbiamente rappresentato dalle elezioni americane di novembre il cui esito avrà enormi implicazioni su due aspetti cruciali del contesto internazionale: i rapporti con Cina e Sud Globale e le relazioni con Mosca alla luce del conflitto in Ucraina
United States
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in Ukraine from both sides of the Atlantic in the run up to the US presidential and European parliamentary elections. As the war in Ukraine has passed its second anniversary, two…
United States
Personnel is Policy: Republican Plans for an Administrative Overhaul under Trump 2.0
Donald Trump is poised to be the next Republican nominee for President of the United States. As such, he stands a roughly even chance of winning the presidency in November 2024. With this potential transition looming, attention has turned towards Trump’s agenda to eradicate the “Deep State” and ongoing preparations for the implementation of such…
European Power
Transatlantic relations after President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office
How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe? And how does the public in European countries view Biden’s America?
17
Nov
ECFR x Intelligence² Germany – Debate: Joe Biden won’t fix the transatlantic relationship
Listen on Spotify From flagrant hostility towards NATO and the EU to exiting the Iran deal and Paris Climate Agreement, Donald Trump has done significant damage to transatlantic relations. It’s not just Europe’s politicians who feel wary of their former ally: a growing number of Europeans see America as an alien…
17
Nov
Middle East and North Africa
ECFR MENA Fireside Chat with Philip Gordon: Assessing US policy towards the Middle East
Zoom registration required, see link below. After President-elect Joe Biden’s victory at the US elections, the ECFR MENA team will host a fireside chat with Philip H. Gordon, former White House Coordinator for the Middle East and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. The discussion will draw on Gordon’s new book, …
In the media
Patrycja Sasnal on the events in Minneapolis and their consequences
Patrycja Sasnal on the situation in Minnesota
It’s amazing how everybody here is so unwilling to say anything negative about the Trump administration
Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev on ECFR’s latest poll of Europeans on what they think of Trump
Vessela Tcherneva on developments in the United States, including the situation in Los Angeles, right after her return from there