America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
US Foreign Policy
Why Americans will eventually sour on the war on Ukraine (but not soon)
Support in the US for Ukraine will one day soften. Europeans need to formulate their own plan to continue the long war for when it does
Arbitrary detention: The US-Iranian prisoner swap as a catalyst for a new approach
The Biden administration has secured the release of five US citizens from unjust detention in Iran. European countries should now coordinate with the US to tackle the use of arbitrary detention as diplomatic leverage in Iran and beyond
Primary concern: Trump, Ukraine, and the Republicans’ foreign policy divisions
The candidates for the Republican primaries hold diverging views on the future of US foreign policy. In the event of a Republican victory, Europeans must prepare for an end to American support to Ukraine.
In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo. It needs a future – it needs NATO
Joe Biden must be bold at this week’s summit, and help to give Kyiv the security that would allow it to rebuild
The Post-American Middle East
The recent ceasefire between Israel and Islamic Jihad, the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the de-escalation in Yemen have all been accomplished with minimal Western involvement. While this may be just a temporary lull in Middle Eastern violence, it may also offer a glimpse into the multipolar future
Violence in northern Kosovo: The United States’ failed bet on Serbia
Western sponsors of the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade are wrong to believe Serbia will work to make a success of diplomacy
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The US, Europe, and the art of vassalisation
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Jana Puglierin to discuss EU-US relations
25 Apr
Publications
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Articles
America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
Why Americans will eventually sour on the war on Ukraine (but not soon)
Support in the US for Ukraine will one day soften. Europeans need to formulate their own plan to continue the long war for when it does
Arbitrary detention: The US-Iranian prisoner swap as a catalyst for a new approach
The Biden administration has secured the release of five US citizens from unjust detention in Iran. European countries should now coordinate with the US to tackle the use of arbitrary detention as diplomatic leverage in Iran and beyond
Primary concern: Trump, Ukraine, and the Republicans’ foreign policy divisions
The candidates for the Republican primaries hold diverging views on the future of US foreign policy. In the event of a Republican victory, Europeans must prepare for an end to American support to Ukraine.
In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo. It needs a future – it needs NATO
Joe Biden must be bold at this week’s summit, and help to give Kyiv the security that would allow it to rebuild
The Post-American Middle East
The recent ceasefire between Israel and Islamic Jihad, the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the de-escalation in Yemen have all been accomplished with minimal Western involvement. While this may be just a temporary lull in Middle Eastern violence, it may also offer a glimpse into the multipolar future
Violence in northern Kosovo: The United States’ failed bet on Serbia
Western sponsors of the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade are wrong to believe Serbia will work to make a success of diplomacy
Leaders, realists, progressives: The three Democratic ‘tribes’ that could shape European relations with America
US policy on Ukraine has reassured Europeans. But as it prepares for re-election, the Biden administration will likely adopt more realist and progressive positions
Caught in the crossfire: Why EU states should discuss strategic export controls
The latest US export controls on semiconductor technologies traded with China mark the beginning of a new era for global technology trade. European states need to urgently discuss strategic export controls in order to participate in it.
A united front: How the US and the EU can move beyond trade tensions to counter China
The Inflation Reduction Act may reduce US dependency on China, but it also risks harming the transatlantic relationship. European governments must position themselves as critical allies for the US in order to preserve their economies – and effectively counter China’s geo-economic challenge.
Podcasts
The US, Europe, and the art of vassalisation
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Jana Puglierin to discuss EU-US relations
In the media
Conquer the “nonaligned” countries and capitalize on US’ reputational weakness have become key objectives of the Chinese foreign policy
Mark Leonard comments the Western weariness towards Ukraine and the following opportunities for China.
Especially in the runup to an election year for President Biden, I do think there’s going to be pitfalls here
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the future of Washington-Tehran engagement after Biden’s prisoner swap deal
In light of the US-Iran prisoner swap, Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the status of the relations between the two countries
Don’t focus on U.S.-China competition, as they are not going to be able to discipline fragmentation as Russia and America did in the Cold War.
Contrary to how it may appear to many, not least in the US, the new cold war seems to be based not on the old logic of polarization, but on a new logic of fragmentation
Following the latest BRICS Summit, Mark Leonard writes about the evolving nature of the international order