Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
US Foreign Policy
America first, Europe next: Trump will change dynamics in Western Balkan security
With US involvement waning, Europe faces a critical test in securing the Western Balkans. Renewed EU commitment could transform its neighbourhood and bolster its security
Living in Trump’s world
Faced with the threat that Donald Trump poses to Europe’s economic and military security, European leaders must avoid both panic and complacency. The best way to do that is to use the time between now and 20 January 2025, to agree on their common interests and work out how to defend them
Trump’s tinderbox: US politics and the next war in the Balkans
Serbian revisionism is on the march and would be greatly strengthened by a Trump win. The EU must prepare a deterrence plan — and take greater responsibility for Western Balkan security
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Kamala Harris and the future of US foreign policy
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss Kamala Harris’s foreign policy
Swamp Chronicles: Ken Weinstein on Trump and the Indo-Pacific
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome Ken Weinstein to discuss why and how Trump’s negotiating tactics could strengthen the US foreign policy position, and help forge alliances against China
Swamp Chronicles: Chris Murphy on America’s metaphysical malaise
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome Connecticut senator Chris Murphy to discuss America’s ‘metaphysical’ crisis and the post-neoliberal framing of the 2024 election
China, trade, and security: What a Trump-Vance administration would mean for Europe
Should Donald Trump win November’s US election, his choice of J.D. Vance as a running mate suggests huge shocks to US policy on China, trade, and security are around the corner. Europeans must respond decisively
Letter from Washington: The war for Trump’s mind
In this fourth instalment of Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro sets out how Republican entreprenuers are battling it out to fill in the gaps in of Donald Trump’s foreign policy with their own ambitions
Publications
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
Trump’s tinderbox: US politics and the next war in the Balkans
Serbian revisionism is on the march and would be greatly strengthened by a Trump win. The EU must prepare a deterrence plan — and take greater responsibility for Western Balkan security
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Articles
America first, Europe next: Trump will change dynamics in Western Balkan security
With US involvement waning, Europe faces a critical test in securing the Western Balkans. Renewed EU commitment could transform its neighbourhood and bolster its security
Living in Trump’s world
Faced with the threat that Donald Trump poses to Europe’s economic and military security, European leaders must avoid both panic and complacency. The best way to do that is to use the time between now and 20 January 2025, to agree on their common interests and work out how to defend them
China, trade, and security: What a Trump-Vance administration would mean for Europe
Should Donald Trump win November’s US election, his choice of J.D. Vance as a running mate suggests huge shocks to US policy on China, trade, and security are around the corner. Europeans must respond decisively
Letter from Washington: The war for Trump’s mind
In this fourth instalment of Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro sets out how Republican entreprenuers are battling it out to fill in the gaps in of Donald Trump’s foreign policy with their own ambitions
America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
Why Americans will eventually sour on the war on Ukraine (but not soon)
Support in the US for Ukraine will one day soften. Europeans need to formulate their own plan to continue the long war for when it does
Arbitrary detention: The US-Iranian prisoner swap as a catalyst for a new approach
The Biden administration has secured the release of five US citizens from unjust detention in Iran. European countries should now coordinate with the US to tackle the use of arbitrary detention as diplomatic leverage in Iran and beyond
Primary concern: Trump, Ukraine, and the Republicans’ foreign policy divisions
The candidates for the Republican primaries hold diverging views on the future of US foreign policy. In the event of a Republican victory, Europeans must prepare for an end to American support to Ukraine
In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo. It needs a future – it needs NATO
Joe Biden must be bold at this week’s summit, and help to give Kyiv the security that would allow it to rebuild
The Post-American Middle East
The recent ceasefire between Israel and Islamic Jihad, the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the de-escalation in Yemen have all been accomplished with minimal Western involvement. While this may be just a temporary lull in Middle Eastern violence, it may also offer a glimpse into the multipolar future
Podcasts
Kamala Harris and the future of US foreign policy
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss Kamala Harris’s foreign policy
Swamp Chronicles: Ken Weinstein on Trump and the Indo-Pacific
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome Ken Weinstein to discuss why and how Trump’s negotiating tactics could strengthen the US foreign policy position, and help forge alliances against China
Swamp Chronicles: Chris Murphy on America’s metaphysical malaise
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome Connecticut senator Chris Murphy to discuss America’s ‘metaphysical’ crisis and the post-neoliberal framing of the 2024 election
The US, Europe, and the art of vassalisation
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Jana Puglierin to discuss EU-US relations
Events
27 Jun
75 anni di NATO e Italia: stato dell’arte e sfide future
In occasione del 75esimo anniversario della NATO, la conferenza farà il punto sia sulla NATO nel contesto attuale e futuro, sia soprattutto sul ruolo dell’Italia nell’alleanza atlantica e il rapporto tra quest’ultima e gli interessi nazionali
12 Jun
The Crossroads of Democracy: Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 US Presidential Election
Foreign policy seldom plays much of a role in American presidential elections, but the consequences of those contests can be profound for America’s allies in…
26 Mar
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
25 Apr
In the media
The key will be to protect Europe from economic or security pressures by thinking and acting together
It is worrying that [Elon Musk] is meddling so directly in the internal affairs of other countries. This is not how it should be between democracies and allies
Jonas Gahr Støre alerts on Musk’s interference in allied democracies
[Trump] is following a destructive drive that must mobilise all those who believe in the law as the highest instance of democratic legitimacy to fight back
Stefan Kornelius comments on Donald Trump’s second term in office
