Drones in Ukraine: Four lessons for the West
From overreliance on China to the growing involvement of civilians, the extensive use of drones in the Ukraine war offers crucial lessons for future conflicts
Ukraine
Forging peace: Europe’s role in Ukraine’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu to discuss European security guarantees for Ukraine and the path to sustainable peace
Prepare for the worst: Four scenarios for Ukraine under Trump 2.0
Donald Trump’s policies on the war in Ukraine could both help and hinder Kyiv’s fight. Europeans should be proactive and prepare for all possible outcomes
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Staying power: Securing peace in Ukraine while balancing European interests
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
28 Nov
Countering disinformation as a global challenge
This international conference will discuss the main aspects of disinformation as a global challenge. It has been organised by the Embassy of the Republic of…
Between the lines: Monitoring Putin’s response to Ukraine’s long-range missiles
Ukraine has carried out its first strikes inside Russian territory with Western-made, long-range missiles; Vladimir Putin responded by launching a new type of weapon. NATO allies must now send a clear deterrence message without following Russia’s escalatory rhetoric
Der Untergang: As Trump returns, Putin will reap the rewards of Europe’s inaction on Ukraine
Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
Trump’s return is terrible news for Ukraine. Europe should step into the breach – but will it?
With Germany’s government collapsing and Europeans so divided in their response to Trump, unity is essential yet elusive
The US election, Ukraine, and the meaning of peace
The US election has fuelled calls to negotiate a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine. But the new administration will not be able to escape the fact that Western security guarantees are a precondition for any sustainable settlement
Publications
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
Energising eastern Europe: How the EU can enhance energy sovereignty through cooperation with Ukraine and Moldova
Over the past two years, the EU has helped Ukraine and Moldova to diversify away from Russian fossil fuels. This has significantly strengthened their energy sovereignty – but improving the efficiency and cleanness of their energy sectors would bring further mutual benefits
Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime
Sustain and prosper: How Europeans can support Ukraine
The EU and its member states need to make an urgent commitment to Ukraine’s security and long-term commitment to its European future. If they do not, they risk alienating the very Ukrainians they seek to support
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration
Tough trade: The hidden costs of economic coercion
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Articles
Drones in Ukraine: Four lessons for the West
From overreliance on China to the growing involvement of civilians, the extensive use of drones in the Ukraine war offers crucial lessons for future conflicts
Prepare for the worst: Four scenarios for Ukraine under Trump 2.0
Donald Trump’s policies on the war in Ukraine could both help and hinder Kyiv’s fight. Europeans should be proactive and prepare for all possible outcomes
Staying power: Securing peace in Ukraine while balancing European interests
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
Between the lines: Monitoring Putin’s response to Ukraine’s long-range missiles
Ukraine has carried out its first strikes inside Russian territory with Western-made, long-range missiles; Vladimir Putin responded by launching a new type of weapon. NATO allies must now send a clear deterrence message without following Russia’s escalatory rhetoric
Der Untergang: As Trump returns, Putin will reap the rewards of Europe’s inaction on Ukraine
Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
Trump’s return is terrible news for Ukraine. Europe should step into the breach – but will it?
With Germany’s government collapsing and Europeans so divided in their response to Trump, unity is essential yet elusive
The US election, Ukraine, and the meaning of peace
The US election has fuelled calls to negotiate a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine. But the new administration will not be able to escape the fact that Western security guarantees are a precondition for any sustainable settlement
Beyond deterrence: How Zelensky’s victory plan can live up to its name
Ukraine’s victory plan can only move beyond being a deterrence strategy with less prevarication from Europeans. But Kyiv will also need to adapt to the realities of fluctuating Western support
Only NATO can secure a ‘West German’ future for Ukraine
Accession to the EU needs to be complemented by the security alliance
Russia, Ukraine, and the two Koreas: How east Asian powers are influencing Europe’s security
Europeans should work to understand the threats from the North Korea-Russia relationship – and deepen their security partnership with South Korea
Podcasts
Forging peace: Europe’s role in Ukraine’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu to discuss European security guarantees for Ukraine and the path to sustainable peace
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Russia, Ukraine, and Europe’s war economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova and Nicu Popescu to discuss Russia, Ukraine, and the EU’s changing response to the conflict
Two long years of war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Gustav Gressel and Jeremy Shapiro to understand what factors will shape a third year of war in Ukraine
NATO’s Vilnius summit: The highlights and the future challenges
Mark Leonard is joined by Alex Stubb, Lykke Friis, and Camille Grand, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
The future of European politics
Mark Leonard welcomes the heads of ECFR’s national offices to discuss key players outside the traditional halls of European power
The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Gustav Gressel to talk about sending fighter jets to Ukraine
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
Reshuffling Russia’s leadership – old wines in new bottles?
It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark…
Europe’s Eastern Neighbourhood: Ukraine and Moldova
Standing in for regular host Mark Leonard, Anthony Dworkin, senior policy fellow at ECFR, looks at Europe's Eastern neighbourhood and interaction with Russia. He is…
Events
28 Nov
Countering disinformation as a global challenge
This international conference will discuss the main aspects of disinformation as a global challenge. It has been organised by the Embassy of the Republic of…
24 Oct
Ukraine has a plan. Does the EU have one?
Nearly three years into the full-scale war, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability to counter Moscow’s relentless attacks. Now, President Zelensky has unveiled Ukraine’s…
6 May
Geopolitics of Enlargement: Ukraine Strategy
This webinar will discuss current revisions of the EU approach to enlargement policy and the security implications for Ukraine and the neighborhoods
25 Apr
Belarus in 2024: Navigating Trajectories of War and Repression
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
10 Apr
Tech Summit, 3rd Edition – The rising technological influence in the next multipolar world
Following the success of the 2022 and 2023 editions, the 2024 Tech Summit will continue to foster dialogue on EU’s role in technological competition and the needed actions in a multilateral context in relation to technology, defence and security
9 Apr
Ukrainian Victory. How to bring sustainable peace back to Europe
The event, organised by the Embassy of Ukraine in Rome and the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Italian Federation for Human Rights (FIDU) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will discuss the current situation in Ukraine in a closed-door roundtable, with the participation of visiting Ukrainian experts
28 Mar
Rethinking & Reshaping: EU Enlargement in times of war
Russia’s war against Ukraine has prompted European policymakers to rethink their approach to enlargement. What form does this new approach take, what are the opportunities for EU and candidate countries, and what is the European Political Community’s role?
26 Mar
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
22 Mar
Insight Ukraine: How Europeans can support the fight for Europe
In challenging times for Ukraine, despite public appraisals following the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ten-year mark of the Russian…
20 Mar
European elections: what do voters really think?
A new opinion poll and four-part strategy on how mainstream parties can campaign to resonate with pro-European voters
In the media
Europeans should be prepared to come up with concrete ideas on how to secure Ukraine over the long term, without being able to rely on the United States the way they used to
This is clearly a way of regaining control or taking a stronger stance in the run-up to 20 January and Donald Trump’s return to power
Marie Dumoulin comments on the prospects for negotiations on the war in Ukraine under Trump’s new presidency
Szymon Kardaś on the consequences of the suspension of gas transit through Ukraine for Poland