The other counter-offensive: Ukraine’s diplomatic push in Africa
Far away from the battlefronts in Ukraine, Russia has been busy charming African capitals to support its invasion. Ukraine is facing a harsh geopolitical awakening
Ukraine
Wartime mindset: Russia’s terror in Sumy requires a targeted European response
Despite recent ceasefire talks, Putin’s programme of terror in Ukraine continued with a Palm Sunday attack on Sumy. Europeans need to maintain a “wartime mindset” and persuade the US that Russia’s hostility is not at an end
Stumbling blocs: Why the EU’s future security depends on successful enlargement
Europe needs to strengthen its collective security in the face of a more volatile US, Russia and China. The EU’s successful streamlining of its accession process would secure the wider neighbourhood—and its geopolitical future
Spoil or shape: How Europeans can impact US-Russia talks on Ukraine
European policymakers have little direct influence over Moscow and Washington. However, they can use certain tools as leverage to help shape talks about Ukraine’s future—while ensuring to act in the EU’s best interest
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
Asserting agency: How Europeans can ensure Ukraine’s security
As Washington’s plan for Ukraine appears further and further from European interests, Europeans need to put an alternative offer on the table. It should rest on four pillars
Live Oak reloaded: How Europe can operationalise a military presence in Ukraine
Washington is winding down its European security contributions and backing away from Ukraine. Europeans could learn from history as they wrestle with deploying a military presence to deter future Russian aggression
7 Mar
US military aid on pause: what’s next for Ukraine?
With the contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, and the US announcing it would pause military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces mounting pressure
How to prevent the next war in Europe: A five-point plan
Europe and Ukraine are on the brink of disaster. An emergency programme is needed that relieves the US, strengthens Ukraine—and prevents the war from spreading. This is what it could look like
Publications
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
Energising eastern Europe: How the EU can enhance energy sovereignty through cooperation with Ukraine and Moldova
Over the past two years, the EU has helped Ukraine and Moldova to diversify away from Russian fossil fuels. This has significantly strengthened their energy sovereignty – but improving the efficiency and cleanness of their energy sectors would bring further mutual benefits
Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime
Sustain and prosper: How Europeans can support Ukraine
The EU and its member states need to make an urgent commitment to Ukraine’s security and long-term commitment to its European future. If they do not, they risk alienating the very Ukrainians they seek to support
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration
Tough trade: The hidden costs of economic coercion
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Articles
The other counter-offensive: Ukraine’s diplomatic push in Africa
Far away from the battlefronts in Ukraine, Russia has been busy charming African capitals to support its invasion. Ukraine is facing a harsh geopolitical awakening
Wartime mindset: Russia’s terror in Sumy requires a targeted European response
Despite recent ceasefire talks, Putin’s programme of terror in Ukraine continued with a Palm Sunday attack on Sumy. Europeans need to maintain a “wartime mindset” and persuade the US that Russia’s hostility is not at an end
Stumbling blocs: Why the EU’s future security depends on successful enlargement
Europe needs to strengthen its collective security in the face of a more volatile US, Russia and China. The EU’s successful streamlining of its accession process would secure the wider neighbourhood—and its geopolitical future
Spoil or shape: How Europeans can impact US-Russia talks on Ukraine
European policymakers have little direct influence over Moscow and Washington. However, they can use certain tools as leverage to help shape talks about Ukraine’s future—while ensuring to act in the EU’s best interest
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
Asserting agency: How Europeans can ensure Ukraine’s security
As Washington’s plan for Ukraine appears further and further from European interests, Europeans need to put an alternative offer on the table. It should rest on four pillars
Live Oak reloaded: How Europe can operationalise a military presence in Ukraine
Washington is winding down its European security contributions and backing away from Ukraine. Europeans could learn from history as they wrestle with deploying a military presence to deter future Russian aggression
How to prevent the next war in Europe: A five-point plan
Europe and Ukraine are on the brink of disaster. An emergency programme is needed that relieves the US, strengthens Ukraine—and prevents the war from spreading. This is what it could look like
Behind the times: Waiting for the Polish Zeitenwende
The United States’ new attitude to European security undercuts Poland’s long-held Atlanticism—meaning Warsaw must surely recalibrate its own policy
Podcasts
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Europe’s wake-up call
In Munich, Mark Leonard welcomes Ulrike Franke, Camille Grand, Janka Oertel and Jana Puglierin to unpack this year’s security conference
Forging peace: Europe’s role in Ukraine’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu to discuss European security guarantees for Ukraine and the path to sustainable peace
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Russia, Ukraine, and Europe’s war economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova and Nicu Popescu to discuss Russia, Ukraine, and the EU’s changing response to the conflict
Two long years of war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Gustav Gressel and Jeremy Shapiro to understand what factors will shape a third year of war in Ukraine
NATO’s Vilnius summit: The highlights and the future challenges
Mark Leonard is joined by Alex Stubb, Lykke Friis, and Camille Grand, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
The future of European politics
Mark Leonard welcomes the heads of ECFR’s national offices to discuss key players outside the traditional halls of European power
The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Gustav Gressel to talk about sending fighter jets to Ukraine
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
Reshuffling Russia’s leadership – old wines in new bottles?
It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark…
Events
7 Mar
US military aid on pause: what’s next for Ukraine?
With the contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, and the US announcing it would pause military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces mounting pressure
29 Jan
Don’t wait for Washington: What the EU can do for Ukraine and its own security
After taking office, Donald Trump did not stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Yet, there are high expectations that his administration will at…
28 Nov
Countering disinformation as a global challenge
This international conference will discuss the main aspects of disinformation as a global challenge. It has been organised by the Embassy of the Republic of…
24 Oct
Ukraine has a plan. Does the EU have one?
Nearly three years into the full-scale war, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability to counter Moscow’s relentless attacks. Now, President Zelensky has unveiled Ukraine’s…
6 May
Geopolitics of Enlargement: Ukraine Strategy
This webinar will discuss current revisions of the EU approach to enlargement policy and the security implications for Ukraine and the neighborhoods
25 Apr
Belarus in 2024: Navigating Trajectories of War and Repression
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
10 Apr
Tech Summit, 3rd Edition – The rising technological influence in the next multipolar world
Following the success of the 2022 and 2023 editions, the 2024 Tech Summit will continue to foster dialogue on EU’s role in technological competition and the needed actions in a multilateral context in relation to technology, defence and security
9 Apr
Ukrainian Victory. How to bring sustainable peace back to Europe
The event, organised by the Embassy of Ukraine in Rome and the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Italian Federation for Human Rights (FIDU) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will discuss the current situation in Ukraine in a closed-door roundtable, with the participation of visiting Ukrainian experts
28 Mar
Rethinking & Reshaping: EU Enlargement in times of war
Russia’s war against Ukraine has prompted European policymakers to rethink their approach to enlargement. What form does this new approach take, what are the opportunities for EU and candidate countries, and what is the European Political Community’s role?
26 Mar
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
In the media
The flattery of Putin could bring him closer to achieving with diplomacy what he fails to conquer militarily: deciding on Ukraine’s future as a country
Rafael Loss on what to expect from the Riyadh meeting on the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine
Putin continues to wage war not because of his successes, but because he wants to see what benefits Trump’s return to power might bring him. So far, from his perspective, it doesn’t look too bad
