If Marine Le Pen wins: A European guide to a far-right France
A Le Pen-led France would mean major changes to European politics. Here’s how political leaders can begin to prepare
European Power
The European Power programme is focused on helping Europeans develop sustainable policy solutions to the issues affecting the European Union’s capacity to act with unity on the global scene. This includes analysing the path forward for the energy transition, economic and tech policy, as well as Europe’s political landscape and participation in multilateral structures.
Featured
The future is fermented: How Europe can succeed in the next industrial race
The next industrial revolution will be built with microbes as much as machines. China understands this. Europe still has the science to compete but must act quickly before industrial leadership slips away again
Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future
Ten years on from the referendum, the British electorate has moved on from its old divisions and—in a world of crisis—is embracing an ambitious move back towards the European Union
17
Sep
RSVP
European Power
The Embedded Outsider: Turkey’s Middle-Power Strategy and Europe’s Response
Turkey hosted this year’s NATO summit and fields the alliance’s second-largest army, arms Ukraine while trading with Russia, and remains an EU candidate whose accession talks collapsed years ago. Europeans keep asking whether Ankara can be anchored in the West or is drifting away. Both questions assume Turkey must eventually choose a home when…
After Tidö: What a centre-left Sweden would change for Europe
Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats is the favourite to become Sweden’s next prime minister, but only after months of hard coalition bargaining. Who she governs with would shape how far her foreign policy shifts
Actually, maybe: How German Angst could become Europe’s nightmare
Germany’s political centre is crumbling—but its leaders appear unable to get ahead of the impending crisis
Germany’s second China shock
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel and Andrew Small to discuss how China’s industrial rise is shaking Germany—and Europe’s—economic foundations
17
Sep
European Power
Brewed in China 2035: How can Europe compete in the next industrial race?
China is already the undisputed champion of traditional manufacturing. But China’s leadership wants more: it aspires to lead in the next generation of production by 2035 – and biomanufacturing has emerged as a priority for China’s economic security, resilience and strategic autonomy. Europe has seen this movie before. As with solar panels or…
Political crisis in Germany
Mark Leonard welcomes Jörg Lau and Jana Puglierin to discuss Germany’s deepening political crisis, the rise of the AfD and how the country’s regional elections could impact Europe’s largest democracy
Trust the numbers: Germans are open to a more hawkish China policy
ECFR polling suggests significant public support not only for tougher German policy on China but also for investment in renewables—tackling twin problems together
If Marine Le Pen wins: A European guide to a far-right France
A Le Pen-led France would mean major changes to European politics. Here’s how political leaders can begin to prepare
How splits on the right may threaten Poland’s pro-European camp
More than 40 MPs have walked out of Law and Justice, Poland’s largest opposition party, and will court centre-right voters who put Donald Tusk in power in 2023. To win them back, Tusk should make the European argument he has spent years avoiding
One foot out: Understanding Bulgaria’s geopolitical shift under Radev
Rumen Radev is steering Bulgaria towards a more transactional foreign policy. The EU needs to engage with Sofia and push back on such hedging to secure future European cohesion
Publications
If Marine Le Pen wins: A European guide to a far-right France
A Le Pen-led France would mean major changes to European politics. Here’s how political leaders can begin to prepare
The future is fermented: How Europe can succeed in the next industrial race
The next industrial revolution will be built with microbes as much as machines. China understands this. Europe still has the science to compete but must act quickly before industrial leadership slips away again
Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future
Ten years on from the referendum, the British electorate has moved on from its old divisions and—in a world of crisis—is embracing an ambitious move back towards the European Union
Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it
Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France
Jordan Bardella is the frontrunner in the French presidential election next year. His win would transform France’s place in Europe. This scenario shows how
The new climate battle: Five deals to recharge the green transition
As climate policy becomes increasingly contested, Europe must adapt its Green Deal to a new political era. The first policy brief in the New Politics project outlines five new deals to make the transition more durable, popular and politically resilient
Electric collective: Europe’s clean energy future without Russia
The EU and member states must agree a high-level energy diplomacy framework and complete the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels
Fast energy: How Europe can power the AI revolution and stay competitive
Europeans must urgently implement a “fast energy” programme to speed up access to energy to power AI—and remain competitive in the world
Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion
Europe has a China problem and pretending otherwise is making it worse. Chinese cheap exports and a monopoly on rare earths are not just economic irritants, but leverage wielded deliberately. Europeans can no longer just de-risk. They need a deterrence strategy with teeth
Articles
After Tidö: What a centre-left Sweden would change for Europe
Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats is the favourite to become Sweden’s next prime minister, but only after months of hard coalition bargaining. Who she governs with would shape how far her foreign policy shifts
Actually, maybe: How German Angst could become Europe’s nightmare
Germany’s political centre is crumbling—but its leaders appear unable to get ahead of the impending crisis
Trust the numbers: Germans are open to a more hawkish China policy
ECFR polling suggests significant public support not only for tougher German policy on China but also for investment in renewables—tackling twin problems together
How splits on the right may threaten Poland’s pro-European camp
More than 40 MPs have walked out of Law and Justice, Poland’s largest opposition party, and will court centre-right voters who put Donald Tusk in power in 2023. To win them back, Tusk should make the European argument he has spent years avoiding
One foot out: Understanding Bulgaria’s geopolitical shift under Radev
Rumen Radev is steering Bulgaria towards a more transactional foreign policy. The EU needs to engage with Sofia and push back on such hedging to secure future European cohesion
How better climate diplomacy can save Europe’s green ambitions
The EU needs to align climate diplomacy with industrial strategy to accelerate Europe’s transition to a competitive low-carbon economy
The tragedy of “Westalgia”
Some European leaders seem to think that abasing themselves for Donald Trump’s pleasure is necessary to save NATO and keep the Western alliance alive. But by so desperately clinging to the good old days of the transatlantic relationship, Europe’s leaders are risking more than just their dignity
Europe’s problem in Italy: How to resist the rise of Roberto Vannacci
Roberto Vannacci’s far-right National Future is four months old and a force to be reckoned with. Italians and Europeans need to recognise the threat he poses to the democratic order
EU Incorporated: The way to start-up European competitiveness
With American competitiveness declining, the EU has a chance to offer tech start-ups something better. To create this new generation of EU Incs, the bloc will first need to better align its regulation and resources
How to think about a Le Pen presidency of France
Le Pen is racing into the French presidential election, even with a fraud conviction hanging over her campaign. Europeans should begin preparing for the rupture her victory could bring
Specials
Energy Sovereignty Index: Gains, gaps, and the road ahead
ECFR’s 2024 Energy Sovereignty Index shows both progress and persistent pitfalls on the EU’s path to energy independence, efficiency, and cleanness. While gains in renewable energy and efficiency are notable, the bloc’s heavy reliance on energy imports is a critical vulnerability
Multilateral Matchmaker
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
Energy Sovereignty Index
ECFR presents an innovative new way to assess the energy sovereignty of EU member states in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
EU Energy Deals Tracker
The energy deals the EU and its member states are now making with third countries will shape Europeans’ ability to protect their energy security in the long term. The EU Energy Deals Tracker provides a comprehensive overview of these agreements, including their implications for the sustainable transition
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
The European Sentiment Compass 2022
In the wake of pandemic and war, the Sentiment Compass assesses the changing expectations of the EU across its member states. It finds that EU should harness the power of culture and the free media to nurture a stronger European sentiment – helping it to address the major challenges facing the continent
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Podcasts
Germany’s second China shock
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel and Andrew Small to discuss how China’s industrial rise is shaking Germany—and Europe’s—economic foundations
Political crisis in Germany
Mark Leonard welcomes Jörg Lau and Jana Puglierin to discuss Germany’s deepening political crisis, the rise of the AfD and how the country’s regional elections could impact Europe’s largest democracy
Marine Le Pen’s comeback
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Cliffe to discuss Marine Le Pen’s return to the French presidential race
British politics ten years after Brexit
Mark Leonard welcomes Marcus Roberts to discuss the legacy of Brexit and the latest developments in British politics
How progress ends
Mark Leonard speaks to Carl Benedikt Frey about the global productivity slowdown, the limits of AI and why the greatest economic risk may be the end of progress itself
The age of hyperpolitics
Mark Leonard welcomes Anton Jäger to discuss why political engagement is surging across Western democracies
The rise of populism
Mark Leonard speaks to Liam Byrne about populism across Europe and the failure of mainstream politics to respond
The future of liberalism
Mark Leonard welcomes Curtis Yarvin to discuss the ideas reshaping figures in Silicon Valley and the American right, and what the future holds for liberalism
Rethinking democracy
As global upheaval puts pressure on liberal democracies, Mark Leonard and David Runciman explore whether democracy is really in decline—or simply being forced to adapt to today’s world
The age of unorder
Mark Leonard is joined by Ayşe Zarakol to explore whether we are entering an era of “unorder”—and what this means for Europe’s ability to adapt, survive and redefine its role in the world
Events
17
Sep
RSVP
European Power
The Embedded Outsider: Turkey’s Middle-Power Strategy and Europe’s Response
Turkey hosted this year’s NATO summit and fields the alliance’s second-largest army, arms Ukraine while trading with Russia, and remains an EU candidate whose accession talks collapsed years ago. Europeans keep asking whether Ankara can be anchored in the West or is drifting away. Both questions assume Turkey must eventually choose a home when…
17
Sep
European Power
Brewed in China 2035: How can Europe compete in the next industrial race?
China is already the undisputed champion of traditional manufacturing. But China’s leadership wants more: it aspires to lead in the next generation of production by 2035 – and biomanufacturing has emerged as a priority for China’s economic security, resilience and strategic autonomy. Europe has seen this movie before. As with solar panels or…
2
Jul
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Hormuz, energia e connettività: la doppia sfida per l’Europa
La chiusura dello Stretto di Hormuz ha posto l’Europa di fronte a una doppia sfida: ripensare la transizione energetica in un contesto di forte incertezza sugli idrocarburi e sviluppare nuove rotte di connettività per ridurre la vulnerabilità a shock geopolitici. Tra i temi al centro del confronto: l’elettrificazione come pilastro necessario ma non sufficiente,…
8
Jun
EU and UK attitudes towards a renewed partnership on 10th anniversary of Brexit
In a private discussion on EU and UK attitudes towards a renewed partnership, a decade after the referendum, Mark Leonard and Marcus Roberts will present some embargoed data from ECFR and Mandate looking at views in the UK but also across Europe on different modalities of the EU-UK relationship going forward…
18
May
Global Strategy Lab: the UK’s geopolitical choices and trade-offs
Reflecting on the findings from our previous events and drawing on Mark Leonard’s latest IPPR paper, Britain’s strategy for a decade of danger: Our nation, our continent, our world, the discussion will examine competing visions for Britain’s role in the world—from renewed reliance on the US, to a more globally diversified approach, to a strategic pivot…
16
Jun
European Power
Spazio e Artico: arene della competizione geopolitica contemporanea
L’Ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in collaborazione con il Centro Studi Americani, Aspen Institute Italia, Geopolitica.info, Airpress e Osservatorio Artico, ha preso parte alla conferenza “Spazio e Artico: arene della competizione geopolitica contemporanea“, che si è tenuta il 16 giugno 2026 presso il Centro Studi Americani, Via Michelangelo Caetani…
6
May
European Power
La desinformación rusa en España y en el ecosistema hispanohablante
El pasado 6 de mayo de 2026, la oficina de Madrid del European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) celebró en Madrid un diálogo con la delegación parlamentaria de United for Ukraine centrado en el impacto de la desinformación rusa en España y en el conjunto del ecosistema informativo hispanohablante. El…
8
Jun
European Power
Iran Nuclear Monitor – Media Briefing en Madrid
La oficina de Madrid de ECFR reunió a periodistas especializados en un media briefing con Ellie Geranmayeh sobre el programa nuclear iraní y el panel interactivo «Iran Nuclear Monitor: Month by Month»
20
Jan
European Power
Cuando MAGA llega a Europa: polarización, la extrema derecha y el desafío al proyecto europeo
El pasado 20 de enero de 2026, la oficina de Madrid del European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) celebró en Madrid un debate a puerta cerrada sobre el ascenso de la extrema derecha en Europa, la profundización de la polarización política y la influencia del movimiento MAGA en las fuerzas nacionalistas europeas. El…
12
Nov
European Power
Cómo las redes eléctricas europeas darán forma a la descarbonización, la competitividad y la resiliencia
El pasado 12 de noviembre de 2025, la oficina de Madrid del European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), en colaboración con la iniciativa DARE*, organizó en Madrid un diálogo político a puerta cerrada sobre redes eléctricas, descarbonización, competitividad industrial y resiliencia energética. El encuentro se celebró en un contexto marcado por…
In the media
Teresa Coratella on hybrid warfare, Russian interference and European vulnerabilities ahead of the next electoral cycle
Angela Ziccardi on the visit of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani to Egypt
Teresa Coratella on a possible alliance between Giorgia Meloni and Futuro Nazionale leader Roberto Vannacci
Teresa Coratella on hybrid warfare, Russian interference and European vulnerabilities ahead of the next electoral cycle