After Nasrallah: Ways to de-escalate the burgeoning Middle East conflict

Problem

Israel’s killing of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday represents a significant tactical victory for the country – but it heightens the risk of full-scale regional war. It also fails to address Israel’s war aim to return displaced civilians to the north of the country.

Israel’s military actions remain detached from a viable strategic pathway to sustainably address its security demands and bring about regional peace. And, despite recent assassinations, Hizbullah retains the capacity to threaten northern Israel. Moreover, Tehran will view any widening Israeli campaign against Iranian-linked groups across the Middle East as an existential threat. This could compel a more forceful response that Iran has so far sought to avoid, also potentially pushing it towards nuclear weaponisation.

Solution

European governments should use their leverage to dissuade Israel from continuing to escalate and press it into an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. A ceasefire remains the clearest first step towards sustainable regional de-escalation.

Europe has important sources of leverage to achieve this. These include ending arms sales to Israel and reviewing the European Union’s association agreement with the country – the linchpin of their bilateral relations and a key source of economic leverage. Germany in particular can act: while it has quietly ended arms transfers to Israel, it must translate this into real diplomatic pressure given its close relationship with the Israeli government. Europeans should also work closely with Gulf Arab partners to press the United States to use its military leverage – by withholding supplies – to get Israel to de-escalate.

Europeans should simultaneously push Iran, upon which it has already imposed a broad range of sanctions, to avoid direct confrontation with Israel, and get its allies to end rocket attacks on the country. This will depend on a greater demonstration by Europeans that they are willing to firmly press Israel to agree to Gaza and Lebanon ceasefires. But they should also stress to the new government under Masoud Pezeshkian that escalating regional conflict will severely constrain the prospect of negotiations it desires with the West.

Context

Hizbullah has suffered a series of painful blows over recent weeks. Israel now appears to be on the verge of a ground offensive into southern Lebanon. An increasingly emboldened Israeli government may also be considering a more expansive plan to roll back Iranian influence across the wider Middle East, reflecting last week’s call by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the UN General Assembly for a new regional order.

Hizbullah likely still has the capacity to unleash more powerful fire against Israel. Iran’s direct attacks on Israel in April also demonstrated an unprecedented ability to breach Israeli defences, which it could repeat more aggressively as part of a wider regional confrontation.

The cost of the conflict is not just one of possible regional war but deepening humanitarian suffering on the ground. More than 1,000 Lebanese have been killed by recent Israeli attacks and up to 1 million civilians displaced. These conditions could quickly push Lebanon into deeper instability amid its longstanding governance and economic crisis.