27 Oct
Iran’s “Generation No” protests: what lies ahead?
This Twitter Space will discuss important lessons from the ongoing protests in Iran and their implications for the country’s future
Experts & Staff
Ellie Geranmayeh
Deputy Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Europe-Iran relations; Iran nuclear deal and associated sanctions policy; Iranian foreign and domestic policy; Iran-Saudi relations
Languages
English, Persian
Biography
Ellie Geranmayeh is a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She focuses on European policy in relation to Iran, particularly on the nuclear and regional dossiers and sanctions policy.
Geranmayeh worked extensively on the diplomatic track that led to the 2015 nuclear deal and continues to brief senior policymakers on how to effectively contain Iran’s nuclear activities. Her research also covers wider regional dynamics including de-escalation efforts between the GCC states and Iran, and geopolitical trends in the Middle East as a consequence of increasing tensions between global powers.
She is regularly quoted by international media outlets including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, and appears on CNN, Al-Jazeera and the BBC to provide commentary on developments in the Middle East.
Generation no: The Iranian uprising and how the West should respond
Young people in Iran have led mass protests after the death of a woman in police custody. The West should stand in solidarity with the protesters while keeping the diplomatic route open to constrain Iran’s nuclear programme.
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
Bide and seek: The dangers of US support for a Gulf-Israeli defence pact
Military alignment between Israel and Gulf Arab states risks heightened conflict in the Middle East – without weakening Iran’s geopolitical position or nuclear programme
Can the Iran nuclear deal be saved?
Mark Leonard, Ellie Geranmayeh, Hossein Mousavian, Vali Nasr, and Ali Vaez discuss the latest developments in the negotiations around the Iran nuclear deal and evaluate different possible outcomes and their consequences
Borrell in Tehran: How to overcome three obstacles to the Iran nuclear deal
The collapse of the Iran nuclear deal could lead to military escalation and further turmoil in the global energy market. Europe can only address these threats through diplomacy with Iran and the US.
Iran, the US, and the nuclear deal: Biden’s chance to remove Trump’s poison pill
Tehran and Washington are close to a deal – but both sides need to give and take to achieve the wider benefits of a renewed Joint Comprehensive plan of Action (JCPOA)
Force of habit: Why the US risks being sucked into a military showdown with Iran
The US needs to swiftly re-energise diplomacy with Iran rather than be sucked into new tit-for-tat military strikes
9 Mar
Ending the Yemen conflict: Voices of local peace-builders
This event will consider how women peace-builders in Yemen are providing essential gender-responsive humanitarian and peacemaking support
Publications
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far
Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions
The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy and begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions
The coming clash: Why Iran will divide Europe from the United States
Europe must salvage the nuclear deal with Iran and step-up robust diplomacy with Teran on regional issues
After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya
Recent terror attacks in Berlin, Baghdad and Istanbul demonstrate that defeating ISIS militarily is only half the battle
The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East
Joint military operations in Syria have brought Russia and Iran relations closer than at any point since World War II
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU’s diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood’s growing impact on the EU
Engaging with Iran: A European agenda
Iran deal should be a catalyst to end decade-long stand off with Tehran and lead to engagement on regional security
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2015
The fifth edition of ECFR’s Foreign Policy Scorecard examines EU’s response to a year of crisis
The Islamic State through the regional lens
Essay collection on the regional dimensions of the IS crisis
Articles
Generation no: The Iranian uprising and how the West should respond
Young people in Iran have led mass protests after the death of a woman in police custody. The West should stand in solidarity with the protesters while keeping the diplomatic route open to constrain Iran’s nuclear programme.
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
Bide and seek: The dangers of US support for a Gulf-Israeli defence pact
Military alignment between Israel and Gulf Arab states risks heightened conflict in the Middle East – without weakening Iran’s geopolitical position or nuclear programme
Borrell in Tehran: How to overcome three obstacles to the Iran nuclear deal
The collapse of the Iran nuclear deal could lead to military escalation and further turmoil in the global energy market. Europe can only address these threats through diplomacy with Iran and the US.
Iran, the US, and the nuclear deal: Biden’s chance to remove Trump’s poison pill
Tehran and Washington are close to a deal – but both sides need to give and take to achieve the wider benefits of a renewed Joint Comprehensive plan of Action (JCPOA)
Force of habit: Why the US risks being sucked into a military showdown with Iran
The US needs to swiftly re-energise diplomacy with Iran rather than be sucked into new tit-for-tat military strikes
The narrow path to agreement: How Europe should support the Iran nuclear deal
If European governments want to salvage the deal before it is too late, while also opening up the prospect of negotiations with Iran on regional security, they need to quickly and clearly reject the argument that the two issues should be bundled together
Course correction in US-Iranian relations: A road map for the Biden administration
Joe Biden has vowed to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal. In a recent report for Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Ellie Geranmayeh looks at what concrete steps can be taken by the United States, Iran, and Europe to bring all parties to the nuclear deal back into full compliance, noting that time is of the essence.
How a Biden win could transform US policy in the Middle East and North Africa
Victory for Joe Biden is likely to bring three big policy shifts in the region, opening new possibilities and challenges for Europeans
Do not expect a rush of arms sales to Iran
A broad range of political and financial problems are likely to prevent Iran from importing advanced weapons systems in the coming years
Specials
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
Can the Iran nuclear deal be saved?
Mark Leonard, Ellie Geranmayeh, Hossein Mousavian, Vali Nasr, and Ali Vaez discuss the latest developments in the negotiations around the Iran nuclear deal and evaluate different possible outcomes and their consequences
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
Feeling the Westlessness at the Munich Security Conference 2020
The annual Munich Security Conference was themed “Westlessness”, defining “a widespread feeling of uneasiness and restlessness in the face of increasing uncertainty about the enduring purpose…
War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen
Lunch discussion to mark the launch of ECFR's newest paper “War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen“. International attention to the Yemeni conflict has shifted…
Iran-US: Preventing a Collision Course
ECFR, in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation (FES), invited to a discussion on “Iran-US: Preventing a Collision Course” on 21 January. Following a series of…
De “facto declaration of war”? – Soleimani’s killing as turning point in the Middle East
With the US-killing of the Iranian military leader, Qassem Soleimani, the Middle East has been yet again sent in the heart to geopolitical uncertainty and…
Iran: Calculating the cost of US sanctions
Over a year into the Trump administration's “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, the re-imposition of sanctions have not only placed in jeopardy the Iran nuclear…
Yemen – Seizing the moment of oppurtunity?
Recording of the Lunch Discussion analysing Yemen's role in the current Gulf crisis and how recent regional developments will have an impact on the UN-coordinated…
Iran & the US escalation game – What can Europe do?
In this episode, live from Brussels, Ellie Geranmayeh is standing in for our host Mark Leonard to discuss Iran’s further withdrawal from the 2015 Nuclear…
Events
27 Oct
Iran’s “Generation No” protests: what lies ahead?
This Twitter Space will discuss important lessons from the ongoing protests in Iran and their implications for the country’s future
9 Mar
Ending the Yemen conflict: Voices of local peace-builders
This event will consider how women peace-builders in Yemen are providing essential gender-responsive humanitarian and peacemaking support
In the media
The hardliners in the US and Iran have always worked together to block diplomacy
Ellie Geranmayeh says in this interview that there is a good chance that the Iranians will engage in negotiations with US President Biden
It is not widely believed in the U.S. intelligence community that Iran has already decided to build a bomb
Ellie Geranmayeh on the challenges for JCPOA restoration
Ellie Geranmayeh explains the state of play on Iran’s nuclear program and why Europe, the US and Iran may already be in Plan B mode as talks to restore the JCPOA remain stalled
I think the system is sort of stuck between what is the right approach
Ellie Geranmayeh on the debate within Iran’s security circles in the light of protests
They are building up a case for their own supporters that foreign enemies have a direct hand on the ground for what is happening with the protests
Ellie Geranmayeh on how the attempt at placing blame on outsiders for Iran’s domestic woes is meant to shore up support among regime loyalists