Force of habit: Why the US risks being sucked into a military showdown with Iran
The US needs to swiftly re-energise diplomacy with Iran rather than be sucked into new tit-for-tat military strikes
Experts & Staff
Ellie Geranmayeh
Deputy Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Europe-Iran relations; Iran nuclear deal and associated sanctions policy; Iranian foreign and domestic policy; Iran-Saudi relations
Languages
English, Persian
Biography
== on parental leave ==
Ellie Geranmayeh is a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She specializes in European foreign policy in relation to Iran, particularly on the nuclear and regional dossiers and sanctions policy.
Geranmayeh advised European governments and companies on the nuclear negotiations between Iran and world powers from 2013-2015 and continues to brief senior policy makers on how to effectively safeguard the implementation of the nuclear agreement. Her research focus also covers wider regional dynamics including post-ISIS stabilisation and geopolitical trends in the Middle East.
She is regularly quoted by international media outlets including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, the Guardian, and appears on CNN, Al-Jazeera and the BBC to provide commentary on regional developments. Prior to joining ECFR, Geranmayeh worked at Herbert Smith Freehills law firm. She graduated in Law from the University of Cambridge.
9 Mar
Ending the Yemen conflict: Voices of local peace-builders
This event will consider how women peace-builders in Yemen are providing essential gender-responsive humanitarian and peacemaking support
The narrow path to agreement: How Europe should support the Iran nuclear deal
If European governments want to salvage the deal before it is too late, while also opening up the prospect of negotiations with Iran on regional security, they need to quickly and clearly reject the argument that the two issues should be bundled together
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Course correction in US-Iranian relations: A road map for the Biden administration
Joe Biden has vowed to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal. In a recent report for Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Ellie Geranmayeh looks at what concrete steps can be taken by the United States, Iran, and Europe to bring all parties to the nuclear deal back into full compliance, noting that time is of the essence.
How a Biden win could transform US policy in the Middle East and North Africa
Victory for Joe Biden is likely to bring three big policy shifts in the region, opening new possibilities and challenges for Europeans
Do not expect a rush of arms sales to Iran
A broad range of political and financial problems are likely to prevent Iran from importing advanced weapons systems in the coming years
Europe can preserve the Iran nuclear deal until November
After a humiliating defeat at the UN Security Council, Washington will seek snapback sanctions to sabotage what is left of the nuclear deal. Britain, France, and Germany can still keep it alive until after the US election.
Publications
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far
Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions
The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy and begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions
The coming clash: Why Iran will divide Europe from the United States
Europe must salvage the nuclear deal with Iran and step-up robust diplomacy with Teran on regional issues
After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya
Recent terror attacks in Berlin, Baghdad and Istanbul demonstrate that defeating ISIS militarily is only half the battle
The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East
Joint military operations in Syria have brought Russia and Iran relations closer than at any point since World War II
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU’s diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood’s growing impact on the EU
Engaging with Iran: A European agenda
Iran deal should be a catalyst to end decade-long stand off with Tehran and lead to engagement on regional security
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2015
The fifth edition of ECFR’s Foreign Policy Scorecard examines EU’s response to a year of crisis
The Islamic State through the regional lens
Essay collection on the regional dimensions of the IS crisis
Articles
Force of habit: Why the US risks being sucked into a military showdown with Iran
The US needs to swiftly re-energise diplomacy with Iran rather than be sucked into new tit-for-tat military strikes
The narrow path to agreement: How Europe should support the Iran nuclear deal
If European governments want to salvage the deal before it is too late, while also opening up the prospect of negotiations with Iran on regional security, they need to quickly and clearly reject the argument that the two issues should be bundled together
Course correction in US-Iranian relations: A road map for the Biden administration
Joe Biden has vowed to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal. In a recent report for Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Ellie Geranmayeh looks at what concrete steps can be taken by the United States, Iran, and Europe to bring all parties to the nuclear deal back into full compliance, noting that time is of the essence.
How a Biden win could transform US policy in the Middle East and North Africa
Victory for Joe Biden is likely to bring three big policy shifts in the region, opening new possibilities and challenges for Europeans
Do not expect a rush of arms sales to Iran
A broad range of political and financial problems are likely to prevent Iran from importing advanced weapons systems in the coming years
Europe can preserve the Iran nuclear deal until November
After a humiliating defeat at the UN Security Council, Washington will seek snapback sanctions to sabotage what is left of the nuclear deal. Britain, France, and Germany can still keep it alive until after the US election.
A pragmatic partnership: Why China and Iran try to collaborate
Iran’s rumoured talks with China on a partnership agreement could have significant economic benefits and provide it with valuable geopolitical bargaining chips
How Europe can avert a clash over the Iran arms embargo
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom will have to decide whether to support the US cause to extend the UN embargo or oppose it. But neither option is ideal.
How Europe can help Iran fight covid-19
European governments and the EU should press the US to strengthen the humanitarian exemptions in its Iran sanctions
Infected: The impact of the coronavirus on the Middle East and north Africa
The coronavirus has hit the Middle East and north Africa at a time when the region is already burdened with multiple problems, including a series…
Specials
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
Feeling the Westlessness at the Munich Security Conference 2020
The annual Munich Security Conference was themed “Westlessness”, defining “a widespread feeling of uneasiness and restlessness in the face of increasing uncertainty about the enduring purpose…
War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen
Lunch discussion to mark the launch of ECFR's newest paper “War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen“. International attention to the Yemeni conflict has shifted…
Iran-US: Preventing a Collision Course
ECFR, in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation (FES), invited to a discussion on “Iran-US: Preventing a Collision Course” on 21 January. Following a series of…
De “facto declaration of war”? – Soleimani’s killing as turning point in the Middle East
With the US-killing of the Iranian military leader, Qassem Soleimani, the Middle East has been yet again sent in the heart to geopolitical uncertainty and…
Iran: Calculating the cost of US sanctions
Over a year into the Trump administration's “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, the re-imposition of sanctions have not only placed in jeopardy the Iran nuclear…
Yemen – Seizing the moment of oppurtunity?
Recording of the Lunch Discussion analysing Yemen's role in the current Gulf crisis and how recent regional developments will have an impact on the UN-coordinated…
Iran & the US escalation game – What can Europe do?
In this episode, live from Brussels, Ellie Geranmayeh is standing in for our host Mark Leonard to discuss Iran’s further withdrawal from the 2015 Nuclear…
Meddling or Bargaining? – Emmanuel Macron’s Iran Initiative
This week, ECFR director Mark Leonard discusses with experts Ellie Geranmayeh and Julien Barnes-Dacey the French president Emmanuel Macron's bold initiative: Europeans are now to…
Meeting the Challenge of Secondary Sanctions
The second episode of ECFR’s summer series on strategic sovereignty explores the critical challenge that secondary sanctions pose for Europe, due to the Trump administration’s…
In the media
On the nuclear issue, my own opinion is that the Iranian side will agree to a deal and come back to the 2015 agreement by August
Ellie Geranmayeh discusses the prospects of Iran returning to the nuclear deal in the wake of President Raisi’s election
By downplaying Mr. Zarif’s role, the supreme leader reaffirmed his support for the talks while also sheltering them from criticism by hard-liners.
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the future of the JCPOA and Ayatollah Khamenei’s reaction to a recent scandal involving criticism about internal decision-making
Despite his pledges to readjust US policy on Iran, Biden is still essentially pursuing the Trump-era maximum pressure campaign, designed to force Tehran to make concessions first
Julien Barnes-Dacey and Ellie Geranmayeh were quoted pointing out the contrast between Biden’s promise and the current American policy on Iran
After four years of trying to keep this agreement together under the Trump administration, the Europeans are hoping that it doesn’t fall apart under a Biden administration
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the growing concern that both the U.S. and Iran have missed a window of opportunity to make some swift moves toward compliance.
The problem is both the Iranian side and the U.S. side are finding it very tough to navigate the domestic political restraints.
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the inhibited progress in US-Iranian relations