How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
Experts & Staff
Ellie Geranmayeh
Deputy Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Europe-Iran relations; Iran nuclear deal and associated sanctions policy; Iranian foreign and domestic policy; Iran-Saudi relations
Languages
English, Persian
Biography
Ellie Geranmayeh is a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She specializes in European foreign policy in relation to Iran, particularly on the nuclear and regional dossiers and sanctions policy.
Geranmayeh advised European governments and companies on the nuclear negotiations between Iran and world powers from 2013-2015 and continues to brief senior policy makers on how to effectively safeguard the implementation of the nuclear agreement. Her research focus also covers wider regional dynamics including post-ISIS stabilisation and geopolitical trends in the Middle East.
She is regularly quoted by international media outlets including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, the Guardian, and appears on CNN, Al-Jazeera and the BBC to provide commentary on regional developments. Prior to joining ECFR, Geranmayeh worked at Herbert Smith Freehills law firm. She graduated in Law from the University of Cambridge.
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
La montée des groupes armés en ANMO et l’engagement européen
Dans une collection de huit essais, l’ECFR explore la manière dont les politiques européennes peuvent s’adapter aux défis créés par l’effondrement des structures traditionnelles des Etats centraux et la montée en puissance des groupes armés qui agissent de plus en plus comme des sources alternatives de gouvernance à travers une région fracturée
L’ascesa dei gruppi armati nell’area MENA e il coinvolgimento europeo
I governi europei e l’UE dovrebbero intavolare un dialogo con quei gruppi armati non statali che, con grande probabilità, eserciteranno un effettivo potere sul campo nella regione MENA nel corso dei prossimi anni
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Course correction in US-Iranian relations: A road map for the Biden administration
Joe Biden has vowed to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal. In a recent report for Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Ellie Geranmayeh looks at what concrete steps can be taken by the United States, Iran, and Europe to bring all parties to the nuclear deal back into full compliance, noting that time is of the essence.
How a Biden win could transform US policy in the Middle East and North Africa
Victory for Joe Biden is likely to bring three big policy shifts in the region, opening new possibilities and challenges for Europeans
Do not expect a rush of arms sales to Iran
A broad range of political and financial problems are likely to prevent Iran from importing advanced weapons systems in the coming years
Europe can preserve the Iran nuclear deal until November
After a humiliating defeat at the UN Security Council, Washington will seek snapback sanctions to sabotage what is left of the nuclear deal. Britain, France, and Germany can still keep it alive until after the US election.
Avec l’Iran, préserver la possibilité d’une relance
L’Europe fait face à une tâche ardue dans sa stratégie concernant l’Iran et les mois jusqu’à l’élection américaine seront encore plus difficiles.
Publications
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far
Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions
The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy and begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions
The coming clash: Why Iran will divide Europe from the United States
Europe must salvage the nuclear deal with Iran and step-up robust diplomacy with Teran on regional issues
After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya
Recent terror attacks in Berlin, Baghdad and Istanbul demonstrate that defeating ISIS militarily is only half the battle
The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East
Joint military operations in Syria have brought Russia and Iran relations closer than at any point since World War II
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU's diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood's growing impact on the EU
Engaging with Iran: A European agenda
Iran deal should be a catalyst to end decade-long stand off with Tehran and lead to engagement on regional security
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2015
The fifth edition of ECFR's Foreign Policy Scorecard examines EU's response to a year of crisis
The Islamic State through the regional lens
Essay collection on the regional dimensions of the IS crisis
Articles
Course correction in US-Iranian relations: A road map for the Biden administration
Joe Biden has vowed to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal. In a recent report for Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Ellie Geranmayeh looks at what concrete steps can be taken by the United States, Iran, and Europe to bring all parties to the nuclear deal back into full compliance, noting that time is of the essence.
How a Biden win could transform US policy in the Middle East and North Africa
Victory for Joe Biden is likely to bring three big policy shifts in the region, opening new possibilities and challenges for Europeans
Do not expect a rush of arms sales to Iran
A broad range of political and financial problems are likely to prevent Iran from importing advanced weapons systems in the coming years
Europe can preserve the Iran nuclear deal until November
After a humiliating defeat at the UN Security Council, Washington will seek snapback sanctions to sabotage what is left of the nuclear deal. Britain, France, and Germany can still keep it alive until after the US election.
A pragmatic partnership: Why China and Iran try to collaborate
Iran’s rumoured talks with China on a partnership agreement could have significant economic benefits and provide it with valuable geopolitical bargaining chips
How Europe can avert a clash over the Iran arms embargo
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom will have to decide whether to support the US cause to extend the UN embargo or oppose it. But neither option is ideal.
How Europe can help Iran fight covid-19
European governments and the EU should press the US to strengthen the humanitarian exemptions in its Iran sanctions
Infected: The impact of the coronavirus on the Middle East and north Africa
The coronavirus has hit the Middle East and north Africa at a time when the region is already burdened with multiple problems, including a series…
Iraq, Iran, and the spectre of US sanctions
European governments must seek to dissuade the US from using Iraq as a new battlefield in its struggle with Iran.
2020: The year of economic coercion under Trump
European countries and businesses are unlikely to escape the impact of US extraterritorial measures on China, Russia, and Turkey.
Specials
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Video
Video: The Middle East’s new battlelines
ECFR’s New Battlelines Project maps Iran’s coalition of allies, regional influence and the counter-coalition that has formed to oppose them
Podcasts
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
Feeling the Westlessness at the Munich Security Conference 2020
The annual Munich Security Conference was themed “Westlessness”, defining “a widespread feeling of uneasiness and restlessness in the face of increasing uncertainty about the enduring purpose…
War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen
Lunch discussion to mark the launch of ECFR's newest paper “War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen“. International attention to the Yemeni conflict has shifted…
Iran-US: Preventing a Collision Course
ECFR, in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation (FES), invited to a discussion on “Iran-US: Preventing a Collision Course” on 21 January. Following a series of…
De “facto declaration of war”? – Soleimani’s killing as turning point in the Middle East
With the US-killing of the Iranian military leader, Qassem Soleimani, the Middle East has been yet again sent in the heart to geopolitical uncertainty and…
Iran: Calculating the cost of US sanctions
Over a year into the Trump administration's “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, the re-imposition of sanctions have not only placed in jeopardy the Iran nuclear…
Yemen – Seizing the moment of oppurtunity?
Recording of the Lunch Discussion analysing Yemen's role in the current Gulf crisis and how recent regional developments will have an impact on the UN-coordinated…
Iran & the US escalation game – What Europe can do?
In this episode, live from Brussels, Ellie Geranmayeh is standing in for our host Mark Leonard to discuss Iran’s further withdrawal from the 2015 Nuclear…
Meddling or Bargaining? – Emmanuel Macron’s Iran Initiative
This week, ECFR director Mark Leonard discusses with experts Ellie Geranmayeh and Julien Barnes-Dacey the French president Emmanuel Macron's bold initiative: Europeans are now to…
Meeting the Challenge of Secondary Sanctions
The second episode of ECFR’s summer series on strategic sovereignty explores the critical challenge that secondary sanctions pose for Europe, due to the Trump administration’s…
In the media
Ellie Geranmayeh is quoted about Iran starting to enrich Uranium again.
Ellie Geranmayeh discusses Iran's move to enrich uranium to 20% following the assassination of Iran's top nuclear scientist.
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on Iran's decision to ramp up its uranium enrichment and its seizure of a South Korean-flagged tanker in Gulf waters.
Ellie Geranmayeh is quoted regarding the possibility to save the Iran nuclear deal.
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on how the Iran nuclear deal parties' developing negotiations.