Life of the party: Democrats and the search for a post-Trump future
The race for US midterms reveals a rapidly changing Democratic party. Europeans must understand and engage its three camps well before the party could take power
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Featured
As the US midterms loom, the Republican choice is surrender—or lose
A loyal voter base is allowing Trump to dominate the Republican Party and strengthen his control before the midterms. Now his sidelining of Congress is weakening the traditional checks on presidential power
One battle after another: Factional struggles and the making of Trump’s foreign policy
Trump’s foreign and security policy is the product of factional competition in the White House and a president fixated on short-term wins. Here’s how Europeans should come to terms with this new reality
Life of the party: Democrats and the search for a post-Trump future
The race for US midterms reveals a rapidly changing Democratic party. Europeans must understand and engage its three camps well before the party could take power
Managed disorder: The hard road to a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine
When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war
30
Apr
United States
What is Donald Trump thinking? A Private briefing on US foreign policy
The special relationship has rarely felt so lacking in speciality. Donald Trump imposes tariffs at a whim, starts wars of choice without consultation, demands UK military participation in them, and then threatens abandonment if he doesn’t get it; some days all before lunch. All this upset has caused many in the UK and beyond to…
As the US midterms loom, the Republican choice is surrender—or lose
A loyal voter base is allowing Trump to dominate the Republican Party and strengthen his control before the midterms. Now his sidelining of Congress is weakening the traditional checks on presidential power
The art of the off-ramp: How Europe can pressure Trump to end the war in Iran
As Trump digs his heels into a war with Iran, he faces a growing list of domestic pressures. Europeans can press on these points to push Washington towards a ceasefire
Hormuz hold’em: How to stop the US-Iran crisis in the strait
If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire
Letter from Washington: Why James Talarico may be the future of Democratic foreign policy
James Talarico roots his foreign policy in a moral framework that could have wide appeal for Democrats—if they follow his lead
Trump strikes Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
Munich Security Conference Special with Elbridge Colby
Mark Leonard and Elbridge Colby unpack the future of America’s defence strategy, and its implications for Europe and the international order
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
Publications
Life of the party: Democrats and the search for a post-Trump future
The race for US midterms reveals a rapidly changing Democratic party. Europeans must understand and engage its three camps well before the party could take power
Managed disorder: The hard road to a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine
When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war
The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia
While Estonia’s geography makes it vulnerable to a Russian invasion, it is also protected due to weakened Russian capabilities, stronger European defence cooperation and its own preparedness. NATO’s European members should be reassured but not complacent
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities. Yet the UK can forge an effective foreign policy if it focuses on British strengths, avoids military adventures in distant lands, and finds balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Articles
As the US midterms loom, the Republican choice is surrender—or lose
A loyal voter base is allowing Trump to dominate the Republican Party and strengthen his control before the midterms. Now his sidelining of Congress is weakening the traditional checks on presidential power
The art of the off-ramp: How Europe can pressure Trump to end the war in Iran
As Trump digs his heels into a war with Iran, he faces a growing list of domestic pressures. Europeans can press on these points to push Washington towards a ceasefire
Hormuz hold’em: How to stop the US-Iran crisis in the strait
If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire
Letter from Washington: Why James Talarico may be the future of Democratic foreign policy
James Talarico roots his foreign policy in a moral framework that could have wide appeal for Democrats—if they follow his lead
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
2026: The year we stop pretending it’s just a phase
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Venezuela, Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” and three dilemmas facing Europe
The American capture of Maduro is a signal event in world geopolitics. Europeans must confront three immediate dilemmas
The Orbanisation of American media is here
Hungary’s media landscape exists in a grey zone, where journalism’s boundaries are set by the whims of regulatory power. Under Trump, America is heading in the same direction
A tale of two buildings: Munich and Vietnam at war in Ukraine
The West’s response to Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is caught between the 1938 Munich warning against appeasing aggression and the 1960s Vietnam lesson against overextension. The answer lies in tempering the two extremes
Trump’s quest to transform the West
The Trump administration is drawing on Roman Empire imagery, and Trump’s own version of Christianity, to reinforce its perception of Western values and impose conditional bilateral partnerships. Europeans need to be ready for America’s whole-hearted shift towards values-based diplomacy
Specials
Fear and loathing on the road to the US elections
European leaders are underestimating the danger that Trump presents to the transatlantic alliance and assuming too much continuity in the event of a Clinton presidency
Podcasts
Trump strikes Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
Munich Security Conference Special with Elbridge Colby
Mark Leonard and Elbridge Colby unpack the future of America’s defence strategy, and its implications for Europe and the international order
Trump attacks Venezuela
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss what Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro means for the world
Predictions and reckonings: From 2025 to 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to look back at the year that was and ahead to what 2026 might bring
Trump’s new National Security Strategy
Mark Leonard welcomes Gladden Pappin and Majda Ruge to explore what America’s new National Security Strategy means for Europe
Venezuela and Trump’s hemispheric defence agenda
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the US millitary engagement in Venezuela and Trump’s broader defence strategy
Ukraine, Russia and Trump’s sanctions gamble
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to discuss the latest twists in diplomacy between Ukraine, Russia and the West
Live from the Aspen Security Forum: America’s inward turn
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Tom Wright to unpack the Aspen Security Forum and America’s shifting global priorities
Doves and hawks: Foreign policy in the second Trump age
Mark Leonard welcomes Dan Caldwell and Curt Mills to talk Trump’s foreign policy—and the key influences shaping it
100 days of Trump
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe
Events
30
Apr
United States
What is Donald Trump thinking? A Private briefing on US foreign policy
The special relationship has rarely felt so lacking in speciality. Donald Trump imposes tariffs at a whim, starts wars of choice without consultation, demands UK military participation in them, and then threatens abandonment if he doesn’t get it; some days all before lunch. All this upset has caused many in the UK and beyond to…
10
Feb
European Power
The return of President Trump and its implications for the UK and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the Middle East and reduce tensions in US-China relations. Are they right? What do his first few days in office tell us about his vision of the world and foreign…
10
Dec
United States
How to cope with Trump 2.0: Ukraine, Nato, China and trade wars
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it will impact them and what are the best ways to protect their interests. Meanwhile, the campaign for the German elections is in full swing and the outcome will impact…
12
Dec
Wider Europe
Taking stock of the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue process
On 12 December, the German Embassy in Washington DC and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will host a public discussion which will take stock of the dialogue process to date and will examine the future prospect for a swift solution to the dispute in order to contribute to the peace and stability…
Asia
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential conflict over Taiwan. Perhaps counterintuitively, the EU likely holds more economic leverage over China than the bloc typically assumes. This is because Beijing would probably factor in retaliatory sanctions…
16
Sep
United States
American Foreign Policy after the Elections
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a second big unknown in the form of Kamala Harris. How would Trump 2.0 differ from Trump 1.0? Would a President Harris continue Biden’s foreign policy or forge her…
United States
Dormant NATO: Future Prospects and Challenges
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of “strategic autonomy”. Even though Europeans have significantly increased their defence spending over the past two years, there is still a massive transatlantic imbalance in NATO. The potential re-election of…
12
Jun
United States
The Crossroads of Democracy: Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 US Presidential Election
Foreign policy seldom plays much of a role in American presidential elections, but the consequences of those contests can be profound for America’s allies in Europe and for the world. The 2024 election will have significant implications for American foreign policy, whatever the outcome. To discuss how the election results are likely to influence…
Middle East and North Africa
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
United States
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in Ukraine from both sides of the Atlantic in the run up to the US presidential and European parliamentary elections. As the war in Ukraine has passed its second…
In the media
Jana Puglierin on chancellor Merz’ options after the increasing successes of the far-right in German state elections
