Trump’s foreign and security policy is the product of factional competition in the White House and a president fixated on short-term wins. Here’s how Europeans should come to terms with this new reality
Una “forma” esiste nella frenesia dei primi mesi di Donald Trump al potere. La sua politica estera è la sua agenda interna esportata, e questa è una cattiva notizia per l’Europa
Hungary’s media landscape exists in a grey zone, where journalism’s boundaries are set by the whims of regulatory power. Under Trump, America is heading in the same direction
A loyal voter base is allowing Trump to dominate the Republican Party and strengthen his control before the midterms. Now his sidelining of Congress is weakening the traditional checks on presidential power
As Trump digs his heels into a war with Iran, he faces a growing list of domestic pressures. Europeans can press on these points to push Washington towards a ceasefire
If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire
James Talarico roots his foreign policy in a moral framework that could have wide appeal for Democrats—if they follow his lead
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
Mark Leonard and Elbridge Colby unpack the future of America’s defence strategy, and its implications for Europe and the international order
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss what Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro means for the world
The American capture of Maduro is a signal event in world geopolitics. Europeans must confront three immediate dilemmas
While Estonia’s geography makes it vulnerable to a Russian invasion, it is also protected due to weakened Russian capabilities, stronger European defence cooperation and its own preparedness. NATO’s European members should be reassured but not complacent
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities. Yet the UK can forge an effective foreign policy if it focuses on British strengths, avoids military adventures in distant lands, and finds balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, and prepare to manage the profound geopolitical repercussions of the Green Deal in its relationships with its neighbourhood
To manage in this new world, the EU and its members need to embark on a broad-based effort to recover their strategic sovereignty
A loyal voter base is allowing Trump to dominate the Republican Party and strengthen his control before the midterms. Now his sidelining of Congress is weakening the traditional checks on presidential power
As Trump digs his heels into a war with Iran, he faces a growing list of domestic pressures. Europeans can press on these points to push Washington towards a ceasefire
If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire
James Talarico roots his foreign policy in a moral framework that could have wide appeal for Democrats—if they follow his lead
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
The American capture of Maduro is a signal event in world geopolitics. Europeans must confront three immediate dilemmas
Hungary’s media landscape exists in a grey zone, where journalism’s boundaries are set by the whims of regulatory power. Under Trump, America is heading in the same direction
The West’s response to Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is caught between the 1938 Munich warning against appeasing aggression and the 1960s Vietnam lesson against overextension. The answer lies in tempering the two extremes
The Trump administration is drawing on Roman Empire imagery, and Trump’s own version of Christianity, to reinforce its perception of Western values and impose conditional bilateral partnerships. Europeans need to be ready for America’s whole-hearted shift towards values-based diplomacy
European leaders are underestimating the danger that Trump presents to the transatlantic alliance and assuming too much continuity in the event of a Clinton presidency
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
Mark Leonard and Elbridge Colby unpack the future of America’s defence strategy, and its implications for Europe and the international order
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss what Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro means for the world
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to look back at the year that was and ahead to what 2026 might bring
Mark Leonard welcomes Gladden Pappin and Majda Ruge to explore what America’s new National Security Strategy means for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the US millitary engagement in Venezuela and Trump’s broader defence strategy
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to discuss the latest twists in diplomacy between Ukraine, Russia and the West
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Tom Wright to unpack the Aspen Security Forum and America’s shifting global priorities
Mark Leonard welcomes Dan Caldwell and Curt Mills to talk Trump’s foreign policy—and the key influences shaping it
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the Middle East and reduce tensions in US-China relations. Are they right? What do his first few days in office tell us about his vision of the world and foreign policy…
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it will impact them and what are the best ways to protect their interests. Meanwhile, the campaign for the German elections is in full swing and the outcome will impact Europe’s…
On 12 December, the German Embassy in Washington DC and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will host a public discussion which will take stock of the dialogue process to date and will examine the future prospect for a swift solution to the dispute in order to contribute to the peace and stability of…
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential conflict over Taiwan. Perhaps counterintuitively, the EU likely holds more economic leverage over China than the bloc typically assumes. This is because Beijing would probably factor in retaliatory sanctions from…
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a second big unknown in the form of Kamala Harris. How would Trump 2.0 differ from Trump 1.0? Would a President Harris continue Biden’s foreign policy or forge her own path?…
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of “strategic autonomy”. Even though Europeans have significantly increased their defence spending over the past two years, there is still a massive transatlantic imbalance in NATO. The potential re-election of Donald…
Foreign policy seldom plays much of a role in American presidential elections, but the consequences of those contests can be profound for America’s allies in Europe and for the world. The 2024 election will have significant implications for American foreign policy, whatever the outcome. To discuss how the election results are likely to influence America’s…
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in Ukraine from both sides of the Atlantic in the run up to the US presidential and European parliamentary elections. As the war in Ukraine has passed its second anniversary, two…
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
Ellie Geranmayeh on the consequences of airstrikes for the Iranians’ support for the war
Jana Kobzová on the military and diplomatic transaction between Kyiv and Middle East amid escalating wars
Ellie Geranmayeh, author of Iran Nuclear Monitor, on Iran’s improved geopolitical position in the region
Mark Leonard on the current political climate in Britain in comparison to Europe
