Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Experts & Staff
Hugh Lovatt
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Middle East; Israel/Palestine; Western Sahara; conflict resolution; international law and armed conflict
Languages
English, Arabic, French
Biography
Hugh Lovatt is a senior policy fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Lovatt has focussed extensively on regional geopolitics and advised European policymakers on the conflicts in Israel-Palestine and Western Sahara. He is regularly interviewed and quoted in international media, including by the New York Times, BBC, Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times, AFP, Le Monde, France24, and Al Jazeera.
Lovatt co-led a 2016 track-II initiative to draft an updated set of final status parameters to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and has worked to advance the concept of EU Differentiation, which was enshrined in UN Security Council Resolution 2334. Lovatt also co-developed an innovative online project mapping Palestinian politics. His publications include Rethinking Oslo: How Europe can promote peace in Israel-Palestine (July 2017), Free to choose: A new plan for peace in Western Sahara (May 2021), and Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East (April 2022).
Lovatt previously worked as a researcher for International Crisis Group and as a Schuman Fellow in the European Parliament focusing on Middle-East policy. He also worked for Aga Khan University’s Institute for the Study of Muslim Civilisations as an Arabic translator.
Lovatt studied Arabic at the Institute for Arab and Islamic Studies at Exeter University as well as at the Institut Français du Proche-Orient (IFPO) in Damascus. He then went on to earn an MA in Near and Middle Eastern Studies at the London School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), where he majored in Anthropology. Lovatt is Chairman of the Brussels-based European Middle East Project (EuMEP).
Israeli strikes have reignited Gaza—now Europeans must take action
Israel has refused to implement the second phase of its ceasefire agreement with Hamas and launched a new wave of attacks against Gaza, with US backing. Europeans need to respond with sanctions and diplomatic action
Why Europeans, Arab states and the Trump administration must work together to ensure a sustainable Gaza ceasefire
Israel and Hamas have finally reached a ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza. Europeans must now work with the incoming Donald Trump administration and Arab partners to secure Palestinian self-determination
Dealing with Trump, Israel, and Hamas: The path to peace in the Middle East
With a two-state solution at risk, Europeans must work closely with Arab states to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to an end
Dangerous manoeuvres: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0
As Donald Trump prepares for his second US presidency, Iranian and Israeli military manoeuvring during President Biden’s lame-duck period risks drawing the US into all-out war in the Middle East
Still free to choose: What Polisario’s legal win means for EU ties with Morocco and Western Sahara
The CJEU has blocked the EU’s inclusion of Western Sahara in its trade and fishery agreements with Morocco. The bloc should now open talks with Polisario to reach a compromise trade deal and support UN-led peace efforts
Regional war in the Middle East: Anatomy of a conflict one year after 7 October
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the regional war in the Middle East one year on from the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel
After Nasrallah: Ways to de-escalate the burgeoning Middle East conflict
Europeans should use their leverage with Israel and Iran to work towards regional peace
Israel’s unwinnable wars: The path to de-escalation in the Middle East
The Middle East is on the brink of a full-blown regional conflict. Western efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah will fail without pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza
Beyond Netanyahu: Why Europeans need an all-of-Israel approach
While Israeli frustration with Netanyahu is building, he will likely stay prime minister and continue to obstruct a credible diplomatic track with Palestinians. But even if he were removed from office, Israeli resistance to Palestinian self-determination would remain
Publications
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Dealing with Trump, Israel, and Hamas: The path to peace in the Middle East
With a two-state solution at risk, Europeans must work closely with Arab states to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to an end
House in disorder: How Europeans can help Palestinians fix their political system
Europeans should leverage their relationships with the Palestinian Authority to revive Palestinian institutions and reverse the PA’s slide towards authoritarianism
Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East
Europeans need to deal with the Middle East as it is rather than as they want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability
Free to choose: A new plan for peace in Western Sahara
The UN should pursue a “free association” option for Western Sahara – a third way that offers a realistic means of fulfilling Sahrawi self-determination
Back to democracy: Europe, Hamas, and the Palestinian elections
The EU and the US have a decisive role to play in ensuring the electoral process succeeds. In doing so, they can support Palestinian political renewal and improve prospects for a sustainable peace agreement with Israel
The end of Oslo: A new European strategy on Israel-Palestine
Instead of its rigid focus on the Oslo peace process, the EU should craft a new peacemaking paradigm based on equality and deoccupation
Gaza’s fragile calm: The search for lasting stability
Introduction War threatens to engulf Gaza’s fragile calm. In each of the three recent conflicts that have shaken the Gaza Strip, fighting between Palestinian factions…
Occupation and Sovereignty: Renewing EU Policy in Israel- Palestine
How should the EU respond to the reality of the one-state reality taking hold in Israel-Palestine?
Rethinking Oslo: How Europe can promote peace in Israel-Palestine
The Oslo Accords have provided political cover for Israel’s creeping occupation and eroded the possibility of Palestinian self-determination
Articles
Israeli strikes have reignited Gaza—now Europeans must take action
Israel has refused to implement the second phase of its ceasefire agreement with Hamas and launched a new wave of attacks against Gaza, with US backing. Europeans need to respond with sanctions and diplomatic action
Why Europeans, Arab states and the Trump administration must work together to ensure a sustainable Gaza ceasefire
Israel and Hamas have finally reached a ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza. Europeans must now work with the incoming Donald Trump administration and Arab partners to secure Palestinian self-determination
Dangerous manoeuvres: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0
As Donald Trump prepares for his second US presidency, Iranian and Israeli military manoeuvring during President Biden’s lame-duck period risks drawing the US into all-out war in the Middle East
Still free to choose: What Polisario’s legal win means for EU ties with Morocco and Western Sahara
The CJEU has blocked the EU’s inclusion of Western Sahara in its trade and fishery agreements with Morocco. The bloc should now open talks with Polisario to reach a compromise trade deal and support UN-led peace efforts
After Nasrallah: Ways to de-escalate the burgeoning Middle East conflict
Europeans should use their leverage with Israel and Iran to work towards regional peace
Israel’s unwinnable wars: The path to de-escalation in the Middle East
The Middle East is on the brink of a full-blown regional conflict. Western efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah will fail without pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza
Beyond Netanyahu: Why Europeans need an all-of-Israel approach
While Israeli frustration with Netanyahu is building, he will likely stay prime minister and continue to obstruct a credible diplomatic track with Palestinians. But even if he were removed from office, Israeli resistance to Palestinian self-determination would remain
Unlawful practices: How Europe can challenge Israel’s presence in Palestine
The International Court of Justice has ruled that Israel’s continued occupation of Palestinian territory is unlawful. Now Europe must support further differentiation measures, and recognise Palestine’s right to self-determination
Recognising Palestine: How Europeans can support a post-Gaza war political track
Recognising the state of Palestine is an important step towards Palestinian self-determination. But to be impactful, it needs to be accompanied by concrete measures to challenge negative dynamics on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides
Strategic myopia: Why Europeans should resume funding UNRWA
To prevent further catastrophic suffering and regional instability, European governments should urgently resume funding UNRWA – the UN agency responsible for supporting Palestinian refugees
Specials
The Gaza crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
Differentiation Tracker
ECFR’s Differentiation Tracker provides a snapshot of third state relations with Israel – and the extent to which these contain a clearly defined territorial definition that explicitly excludes Israeli settlements constructed on occupied territory in line with UNSCR 2334
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Mapping Palestinian Politics
This interactive web project charts the constellation of political players as Palestinians approach a period of political change. Over 100 pen portraits reveal new insights into the personalities and power structures that will shape the future of Palestinian politics
Israel-Palestine Two State Stress Test
ECFR’s innovative project Two State Stress Test provides a health-check on whether developments across seven different areas are serving to strain or sustain a possible two-state outcome for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Podcasts
Regional war in the Middle East: Anatomy of a conflict one year after 7 October
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the regional war in the Middle East one year on from the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel
Pathways to peace in Gaza: The prospects for Palestinian statehood
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt and Muhammad Shehada to discuss the war in Gaza and the prospects for Palestinian statehood
The future of the war in Gaza
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the current situation in Gaza and the possible futures of the war
The role of the Persian Gulf in the war in Gaza
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Cinzia Bianco and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the role of the Persian Gulf in the ongoing conflict in Gaza
Podcast special: Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel
Mark Leonard welcomes Eran Etzion, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss Hamas’s offensive against Israel and its effects on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the wider Middle East
Special ECFR discussion on Palestinian politics
Discussion about the political shifts from the March Israeli elections and dynamics surrounding the upcoming Palestinian elections
Interview with Daniel Seidemann
In this special ECFR discussion, MENA Policy Fellow Hugh Lovatt interviews Daniel Seidemann, the Founder of Terrestrial Jerusalem and an Israeli attorney that specialises in…
Trump’s “Deal of the Century” debunked: is there something in it for Palestine at all?
When US-President Donal Trump revealed his much-awaited plan for peace for Israel and Palestine it was set to solve one of the world's longest-running conflict
The future of Israeli-Palestinian conflict: towards annexation and illiberalism?
Podcast de notre discussion du 19 juin « The future of Israeli-Palestinian conflict: towards annexation and illiberalism? » en présence de Yehuda Shaul,…
ECFR Clips: Trump’s impact on the Middle East
Ruth Citrin speaks with Ellie Geranmayeh, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Hugh Lovatt, about the state of play in the MENA region and the considerations for Europeans…
Events
23 Jul
ECFR Discussion with HR/VP Josep Borrell: How can the EU support a sustained ceasefire in Gaza and a renewed Israeli-Palestinian political track?
Josep Borrell Fontelles is the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission. He was President of the…
23 Mar
The role of outside powers in Ukraine
Do any outside powers have any chance of bringing Russia and Ukraine closer to peace?
In the media
European capitals such as Berlin and Paris have come out in support of Israel, ignoring this was an unjustified action
Hugh Lovatt on European alignment with Israel in the conflict with Iran
Hugh Lovatt on the potential outcomes of a British recognition of Palestinian statehood and sovereignty
Hugh Lovatt on the potential outcomes of a British and French recognition of Palestinian statehood
Hugh Lovatt on the potential outcomes of a British and French recognition of Palestinian statehood
Hugh Lovatt on whether Europe’s shift on Israel’s genocide in Gaza will fix anything