The bear who came to tea: Russia, Libya and the Kremlin’s playbook for fragile states
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
Africa
The Africa programme analyses the geopolitics of the Africa-Europe relationship. In particular, the programme delves into relations between the African Union and the European Union to find creative foreign policy tools and strategies. It also focuses on two regions that are particularly relevant for Europe: the Horn of Africa and the Sahel.
Featured
Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are making geoeconomic inroads into sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in energy and climate. This could affect Europe’s African interests
Deadly skies: Drone warfare in Ethiopia and the future of conflict in Africa
Drone warfare is increasing in Ethiopia and across Africa. These foreign-supplied weapons risk prolonging wars and can help drive governments further away from the West
Back from the brink: How European support could prevent another Ethiopia-Eritrea war
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have soured since the war in Tigray ended in 2022. The region is now a tinderbox for conflict: Europeans need to intervene and pull the various opposing factions back from the brink
The other counter-offensive: Ukraine’s diplomatic push in Africa
Far away from the battlefronts in Ukraine, Russia has been busy charming African capitals to support its invasion. Ukraine is facing a harsh geopolitical awakening
Pragmatic partners: The EU’s new model for engagement with South Africa
The EU and South Africa are fresh off the back of their first mutual summit in seven years. Pretoria remains committed to its policy of strategic ambiguity, while the EU took the chance to further its green and industrial ambitions via a new partnership model
The bear who came to tea: Russia, Libya and the Kremlin’s playbook for fragile states
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
31 Mar
Rewiring alliances: Africa-Europe-Gulf relations amid geopolitical turmoil
Drawing on insights from a recent ECFR policy brief, “Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa“, this event aims to explore the…
Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are making geoeconomic inroads into sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in energy and climate. This could affect Europe’s African interests
Deadly skies: Drone warfare in Ethiopia and the future of conflict in Africa
Drone warfare is increasing in Ethiopia and across Africa. These foreign-supplied weapons risk prolonging wars and can help drive governments further away from the West
Split decision: Why Sudan is on the brink of partition—again
The prospect of a divided Sudan is gaining traction among local and regional actors, threatening to further destabilise an already fragile region. European policymakers must act swiftly to arrest this dangerous slide
US aid freeze: A catastrophe looming for the Horn of Africa
An unstable Horn of Africa spells major trouble for Europe. The EU should take the reins in the Western response to counter the fallout from the aid withdrawal
5 Feb
The Sudan crisis: Realistic options for Europeans
The catastrophe in Sudan is now accelerating into dizzying levels of complexity and violence. Millions could die of famine this year, but there seems to be no end in…
Publications
The bear who came to tea: Russia, Libya and the Kremlin’s playbook for fragile states
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are making geoeconomic inroads into sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in energy and climate. This could affect Europe’s African interests
Deadly skies: Drone warfare in Ethiopia and the future of conflict in Africa
Drone warfare is increasing in Ethiopia and across Africa. These foreign-supplied weapons risk prolonging wars and can help drive governments further away from the West
Split decision: Why Sudan is on the brink of partition—again
The prospect of a divided Sudan is gaining traction among local and regional actors, threatening to further destabilise an already fragile region. European policymakers must act swiftly to arrest this dangerous slide
Rules of entry: Cooperative pathways for Europe and Africa on critical minerals
European countries want to secure supplies of African critical raw materials. To achieve this, they must increasingly meet locally set requirements that channel benefits into local economies in Africa
Material world: How Europe can compete with China in the race for Africa’s critical minerals
The EU faces a massive uphill struggle to secure critical raw material supply chains – and its efforts may even be undermining the bloc’s de-risking objectives by indirectly helping Chinese companies
Aligned in the sand: How Europeans can help stabilise the Sahel
Rather than disengaging from the coup belt, European governments should stay present and work to curb the worst of the chaos engulfing the region — and prevent rival powers from gaining the upper hand
Maghreb migrations: How North Africa and Europe can work together on sub-Saharan migration
North African countries are increasingly adopting ‘security first’ approaches towards sub-Saharan African migrants – a shift that could force EU states to rethink their own approach to the issue
Beyond competition: How Europe can harness the UAE’s energy ambitions in Africa
The UAE has invested heavily in Africa’s energy sectors in recent years, expanding its stakes in oil and gas, and renewables. Rather than viewing the UAE as solely a rival, Europeans should pursue a strategy of “co-opetition”, balancing competition with cooperation in areas of mutual interest, to fast-track green initiatives
From mines to markets: How Africa and Europe can become green industry partners of choice
African and European decision-makers can achieve mutual benefit on critical raw materials – but the EU should be clearer about which parts of the value chain it wishes to invest in
Articles
Back from the brink: How European support could prevent another Ethiopia-Eritrea war
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have soured since the war in Tigray ended in 2022. The region is now a tinderbox for conflict: Europeans need to intervene and pull the various opposing factions back from the brink
The other counter-offensive: Ukraine’s diplomatic push in Africa
Far away from the battlefronts in Ukraine, Russia has been busy charming African capitals to support its invasion. Ukraine is facing a harsh geopolitical awakening
Pragmatic partners: The EU’s new model for engagement with South Africa
The EU and South Africa are fresh off the back of their first mutual summit in seven years. Pretoria remains committed to its policy of strategic ambiguity, while the EU took the chance to further its green and industrial ambitions via a new partnership model
US aid freeze: A catastrophe looming for the Horn of Africa
An unstable Horn of Africa spells major trouble for Europe. The EU should take the reins in the Western response to counter the fallout from the aid withdrawal
Pressure points: How Europeans could help avert a Third Congo War
Congo stands on the brink of being at the centre of a devastating new regional war. Europe should act in its own self-interest to avert further humanitarian catastrophe
A security-development mission: How Europe can support the Ethiopia-Somalia trade corridor
Europe can help stabilise the Horn of Africa with a daunting project: a commercial corridor in Somalia that allows Ethiopia access to the sea
Why France should close its permanent military bases in Africa
Chad and Senegal recently announced the end of their historic defence agreements with France. Now France should hand over its remaining military bases in Africa and work towards a more forward-thinking cooperation model
Point-scoring over protection: How Russia’s politicking harms Sudanese civilians
Russia’s veto of a UN resolution to protect Sudanese civilians highlights the deadly consequences of great-power competition. As Sudan faces a catastrophic man-made humanitarian crisis, European efforts must prioritise local initiatives to safeguard vulnerable populations
Reste calme: Why Europeans should take a measured approach towards Trump in Africa
During his first presidency, Donald Trump’s Africa policy was defined by a series of gaffs and confused foreign policy decisions. His re-election is a wake-up call to European governments that building a strong relationship with the world’s fastest-growing continent is more vital than ever
Three’s a crowd: Why Egypt’s and Somalia’s row with Ethiopia can embolden al-Shabaab
Somalia’s new defence pact with Egypt has angered Ethiopia, undermining coalition efforts to contain al-Shabaab, a Jihadist group. European diplomats can help revert this dangerous path
Specials
Mapping African regional cooperation
This project maps African regional initiatives in west and central Africa and provides a data-based and a geographical overview of the ‘à la carte’ nature of African regional cooperation
Mapping armed groups in Mali and the Sahel
Violence is tearing Mali and the Sahel apart. But who are the armed groups behind the bloodshed? Where are international actors stationed in the region? And what motivates them all?
Podcasts
Sudan’s humanitarian crisis
Mark Leonard welcomes Will Brown, Jonas Horner, and Raga Makawi to discuss the EU’s response to the humanitarian crisis in Sudan
Africa: Not just about migration
In the first big multilateral test for prime minister Giorgia Meloni, this mini-series will explore the four main priorities of Italy’s 2024 G7 presidency: Ukraine, AI, infrastructure, and Africa
The future of the Red Sea
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco and Theodore Murphy to discuss the crisis in the Red Sea and its escalation potential
Africa and the changing global order
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Adebayo Olukoshi, Brian Kagoro, and Theodore Murphy to talk about Africa and the global order
The Sudan conflict and its impacts on the region
Mark Leonard is joined by Theodore Murphy, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Marie Dumoulin to talk about Sudan
The Clash of Orders with Comfort Ero on Nigeria
Mark Leonard is joined by Comfort Ero to learn more about the Nigerian perspective on global order
The EU and France in the Sahel
What does the end of Operation Barkhane in its current form mean for the Sahel?
All eyes on Ethiopia: What the EU and the US can do
What are the regional implications of the Tigray conflict and the prospects for transatlantic cooperation around the issue?
Europe’s pivot to Africa
Where do we stand now in building a “strategic partnership” between the European and African continent?
Events
31 Mar
Rewiring alliances: Africa-Europe-Gulf relations amid geopolitical turmoil
Drawing on insights from a recent ECFR policy brief, “Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa“, this event aims to explore the…
5 Feb
The Sudan crisis: Realistic options for Europeans
The catastrophe in Sudan is now accelerating into dizzying levels of complexity and violence. Millions could die of famine this year, but there seems to be no end in…
10 Feb
More than mining: leveraging critical minerals for growth in Zambia
Growing global demand for the critical minerals needed for green energy and other technologies presents an opportunity for mineral-rich African countries like Zambia to expand…
30 Jan
Africa-Europe Forum 2025
At a moment of intensifying global disorder and increasing respective challenges, ECFR’s Africa-Europe Forum provides a platform for an open and…
23 Jan
Strategic reset: Re-designing EU-Africa partnerships on critical minerals
The EU has set on a course of diversification from its main provider of critical minerals and several of its manufactured products, China. To secure…
14 Jan
Africa amid global shifts: Balancing partnerships
Africa’s growing prominence in global geopolitics and geoeconomics presents a landscape of both exciting opportunities and critical challenges for the continent and its international partners
10 Dec
Il Circolo dell’ECFR: L’asse Emirati Arabi Uniti-Africa: orientarsi nel nuovo scenario multipolare
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzato sul ruolo degli Emirati Arabi Uniti in Africa. Mentre i leader europei riflettono sul…
18 Dec
De-risking minerals: Can Europe and Africa align?
As Europe endeavours to reduce its reliance on China for critical raw materials and the technologies they enable, efforts to boost European investment in mining…
28 Nov
Countering disinformation as a global challenge
This international conference will discuss the main aspects of disinformation as a global challenge. It has been organised by the Embassy of the Republic of…
21 Oct
How Europeans can help stabilise the Sahel
A decade of military, humanitarian, and developmental European interventions in the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have failed comprehensively. Yet, European governments…
In the media
Africa cannot build resilient energy systems or competitive industrial bases on its own. Europe cannot achieve its green transition without reliable access to African minerals
Maddalena Procopio on the importance of African critical raw materials and the challenges faced by the EU to enter in the sector
Will Brown on linkening M23 to Vladimir Putin’s ‘Little Green Men’ who took Crimea in 2014
The EU cannot limit itself to reacting. A comprehensive security approach is needed, combining migration control with investment in political and economic stability
Andrew Lebovich warns about the lack of a comprehensive European strategy for West Africa
They are at best stuck, and at worst gradually losing the fight
Will Brown on the leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger claiming they are winning the fight against insurgents