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Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
- Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard
- Policy Brief
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies

Topple, tame, trade: How Turkey is rewriting Syria’s future
- Aslı AydıntaĆbaĆ
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
Turkey didn’t orchestrate Assad’s fall, but it’s certainly cashing in on the aftermath. Now, it wants to mould Syria in its own image—if it can keep the Kurds from spoiling the party

A cold front: Denmark’s response to Trump’s desire for Greenland
- Mark Leonard
- Commentary
- 4 minute read
Trump’s obsession with buying Greenland has turned the island into a geopolitical flashpoint, leaving Europeans uneasy and Denmark navigating choppy waters over the island’s political future

Why the EU should use Kosovo’s election to advance its goals in the Western Balkans
- Tefta Kelmendi, Agon Maliqi
- Commentary
- 4 minute read
Kosovo remains at odds with Serbia—and the EU. The outcome of the country’s imminent election could allow the EU to transform relations between the countries and open the door to Kosovo’s accession
Upcoming events
European views on a second Trump presidency: Time for pragmatism
- Online
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Recent events
Africa-Europe Forum 2025
- Axica (Pariser Platz 3, 10117 Berlin)
Mark Leonard's World in 30 minutes

The Norwegian way: Why Oslo talks to everyone
- Podcast
- Mark Leonard's World in 30 minutes
Mark Leonard welcomes Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik to discuss Norway’s distinct approach to diplomacy and international engagement
Searching for Deutschland

Euroscepticism in Germany: Normalisation or radicalisation?
- Podcast
- Searching for Deutschland
This week, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin discuss German election campaign frontrunner Friedrich Merzâs bid to win Bundestag votes on migration with support from…
Views from the Council

In the new Trumpian era, liberal democracies must hold their noses—and engage with difficult partners
- Timothy Garton Ash
- Commentary
- View from the Council
- 4 minute read
New polling says much of the world will welcome Trump. Europe will need to be more transactional abroad—but less so at home

What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025
- Timothy Garton Ash
- Commentary
- View from the Council
- 4 minute read
Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up, and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation
In the Media - Council
Mark Leonard, Ivan Krastev, and Timothy Garton Ash on ECFRâs latest global survey
Mark Leonard, Ivan Krastev, and Timothy Garton Ash on ECFRâs latest global survey
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash and Ivan Krastev on ECFRâs latest global survey on Trumpâs return to the White House
Mark Leonard, Ivan Krastev, and Timothy Garton Ash on the findings of the ECFRâs latest polling report
Featured and flagship projects
Public opinion polling
Through polling in EU member states, ECFR’s analysis seeks to unlock shifting coalitions in Europe that favour a more internationally engaged union.

Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
- Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard
Re:Engage
This project helps the EU in refining its foreign policy, re-engaging neighbours post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine to bolster regional resilience and advance enlargement policies.

The interest of values: The EU’s democracy promotion in the Western Balkans and the eastern neighbourhood
- Piotr Buras, Marie Dumoulin, Tefta Kelmendi, Marlene Marx
Re:Order
Re:Order project explores emerging visions of the global order, as well as the interplay between economic might and geopolitical influence.

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Synch and swim: How escaping Russia’s electricity grid can strengthen Baltic energy security
- Szymon KardaĆ
- Commentary
- 4 minute read
The synchronisation of the Baltic states with EU electricity networks will enhance their energy security in the face of Russian threats—but further investment is needed

Echoes of Minsk: Lukashenka’s potential gain in Trump’s Ukraine deal
- Vasil Navumau
- Commentary
- 3 minute read
Trump could grant Lukashenka sanctions relief without demanding any meaningful concessions in return. The EU must continue to maintain pressure

A double bind: How unrest and geopolitics could end Serbia’s government
- Engjellushe Morina, Angelica Vascotto
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
Mass protests are destabilising Aleksandar Vucic’s rule and his “à la carte” foreign policy positioning. As Serbia’s president faces his toughest challenge yet, the EU should seize the moment to support democratic change and regional stability

The Norwegian way: Why Oslo talks with everyone and still believes in multilateralism
- Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik
- Commentary
- 11 minute read
Norway still champions the UN, international law—and dialogue with adversaries. Communicating with all actors is in Norway’s and the West’s interests, writes the country’s deputy foreign minister, Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik

What Europe can learn from Trump’s trade manoeuvres against Canada and Mexico
- Tobias Gehrke, Herman Quarles van Ufford
- Policy Alert
- 2 minute read
Donald Trump announced that the US was imposing high trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico—only to pause them a few hours later. Europeans should monitor Trump’s playbook and learn from the countries’ response

Borrowed time: How defence spending can bridge the EU’s fiscal divide
- Chiara Malaponti
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
Europe’s geopolitical strength hinges on its ability to invest boldly and cooperatively. To transcend the divide between its frugal and spender member states, the EU should begin with defence spending
Our experts are available for media requests. Our work involves many issues relating to Europe and foreign policy, and our programmes focus on Africa, Asia, the Middle East & North Africa, and Wider Europe.
Agathe Demarais on Trumpâs potential imposition of tariffs on European goods
More on Africa

Rules of entry: Cooperative pathways for Europe and Africa on critical minerals
- Theophilus Acheampong
- Policy Brief
European countries want to secure supplies of African critical raw materials. To achieve this, they must increasingly meet locally set requirements that channel benefits into local economies in Africa
A security-development mission: How Europe can support the Ethiopia-Somalia trade corridor
- Corrado Äok
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
Why France should close its permanent military bases in Africa
- Will Brown, Suzanne Tisserand
- Commentary
- 4 minute read
More on Asia

The idea of China
- Alicja Bachulska, Mark Leonard, Janka Oertel
- Book
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
Britainâs risky re-engagement: Why its China policy could strain the EU-UK reset
- Byford Tsang
- Policy Alert
- 1 minute read
Turmoil in Seoul: A potential setback for EU-South Korea security cooperation
- Alexander Lipke
- Policy Alert
- 2 minute read
More on European Power

Empowering Poland: The role of international partnerships
- Szymon KardaĆ
- Policy Brief
To effectively transition to a low-carbon economy while bolstering energy security and economic stability, Poland is betting on cooperation with international partners
Deep pockets, DeepSeek, and the EU’s digital drift
- Ángel Melguizo
- Commentary
- 4 minute read
The EU’s Competitiveness Compass needs funding and ambitious legislation to work
- Mats Engström
- Policy Alert
- 2 minute read
More on Middle East and North Africa

Dealing with Trump, Israel, and Hamas: The path to peace in the Middle East
- Hugh Lovatt, Muhammad Shehada
- Policy Brief
With a two-state solution at risk, Europeans must work closely with Arab states to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to an end
Why Europeans, Arab states and the Trump administration must work together to ensure a sustainable Gaza ceasefire
- Hugh Lovatt, Muhammad Shehada
- Policy Alert
- 2 minute read
How European leaders can support sustainable refugee returns in a post-Assad Syria
- Kelly Petillo
- Commentary
- 4 minute read
More on United States

Trump’s tinderbox: US politics and the next war in the Balkans
- Adnan ÄerimagiÄ, Majda Ruge
- Policy Brief
Serbian revisionism is on the march and would be greatly strengthened by a Trump win. The EU must prepare a deterrence plan — and take greater responsibility for Western Balkan security
Glitch in the matrix: How Europeans should respond to the Trump-Musk tech agenda
- José Ignacio Torreblanca, Giorgos Verdi
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
Transatlantic drift: UK-EU defence cooperation in the second Trump era
- Anand Sundar
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
More on Wider Europe

Farce then tragedy: Russian views of the West and what they mean for Ukraine
- Kadri Liik
- Policy Brief
How the Kremlinâs view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
Cold calculations: Why a freezing Transnistria helps Moscow
- Andrew Wilson
- Policy Alert
- 2 minute read
What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025
- Timothy Garton Ash
- Commentary
- View from the Council
- 4 minute read