Highlights
Featured
Welcome to Barbieland: European sentiment in the year of wars and elections
- Pawel Zerka
- Policy Brief
Like the titular character in the movie “Barbie”, the EU is prone to regarding itself as more perfect than it really is. This year’s European Sentiment Compass lays bare the EU’s blind spots – and explains why ignoring them could have long-term repercussions for democracy inside the bloc
The Gaza crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines
- Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco, Hugh Lovatt
- Special
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario
- Agathe Demarais
- Policy Brief
In the coming years, China’s leaders could make good on their pledges to “reunify” Taiwan and the Chinese mainland by force. European policymakers need to begin preparing economic statecraft options for such a scenario – and they need to do so now
Value for money: Why and how Europeans should support the failing economies of Egypt and Tunisia
- Anthony Dworkin, Camille Lons, Tarek Megerisi
- Policy Brief
Severe weaknesses in the Egyptian and Tunisian economies provoke recurrent crises. There is a better way for Europeans to support Cairo and Tunis
Upcoming events
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
- ECFR Berlin, Unter den Linden 17, 10117 Berlin (entrance: Rosmarinstr. 1)
- ECFR Berlin
Europe’s choices ahead of the US presidential election
- Literature Club Peroto, 1 Bulgaria boulevard, National Palace of Culture, 1463, Sofia, Bulgaria
- ECFR Sofia
Recent events
Mark Leonard's World in 30 minutes
Giorgia Meloni: Redefining Italy’s place in Europe and the world
- Podcast
- Mark Leonard's World in 30 minutes
Mark Leonard welcomes Lykke Friis, Sylvie Kauffmann, and Arturo Varvelli to discuss Italy’s role on the global stage, and how it fits into Europe’s future
Swamp Chronicles
Swamp Chronicles: Dan Caldwell on restraint and a second Trump administration
- Podcast
- Swamp Chronicles
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome Dan Caldwell to discuss why a second Donald Trump administration will likely involve personnel more aligned with the ‘restrainer’ movement
Views from the Council
Zelensky has a game-changing plan to win peace. For it to work, Biden must back it – fast
- Timothy Garton Ash
- Commentary
- View from the Council
- 4 minute read
In besieged Kharkiv, I saw how Ukraine is approaching a perilous moment. To turn the tide, it first needs to decisively knock back Russia
The future of the world may depend on what a few thousand Pennsylvania voters think about their grocery bills
- Timothy Garton Ash
- Commentary
- View from the Council
- 4 minute read
The Harris-Walz ticket has transformed the presidential race. But on the ground it’s clear: Trump could still win
In the Media - Council
Gerald Knaus criticises plans to turn away refugees at the German border
Miroslav Lajčák comments on the Ohrid Agreement that aims to normalise bilateral relations between Serbia and Kosovo
Mujtaba Rahman explains why Giorgia Meloni will continue playing to the European centre
Reinhard Bütikofer on German state elections in Saxony and Thuringia
Featured projects
Re:Engage
This project helps the EU in refining its foreign policy, re-engaging neighbours post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine to bolster regional resilience and advance enlargement policies.
The interest of values: The EU’s democracy promotion in the Western Balkans and the eastern neighbourhood
- Piotr Buras, Marie Dumoulin, Tefta Kelmendi, Marlene Marx
Re:Order
Re:Order project explores emerging visions of the global order, as well as the interplay between economic might and geopolitical influence.
Public opinion polling
Through polling in EU member states, ECFR’s analysis seeks to unlock shifting coalitions in Europe that favour a more internationally engaged union
A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year
- Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard
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Russia, Ukraine, and the two Koreas: How east Asian powers are influencing Europe’s security
- James Crabtree, Alexander Lipke
- Commentary
- 4 minute read
Europeans should work to understand the threats from the North Korea-Russia relationship – and deepen their security partnership with South Korea
Building BRICS: What Erdogan’s geopolitical gamble could mean for the West
- Aslı Aydıntaşbaş
- Commentary
- 4 minute read
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced Turkey’s intention to apply for BRICS membership. If successful, it would be the bloc’s only NATO member – but the mere prospect of joining could open the door to Turkey’s re-engagement with the West
Israel’s unwinnable wars: The path to de-escalation in the Middle East
- Julien Barnes-Dacey, Hugh Lovatt
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
The Middle East is on the brink of a full-blown regional conflict. Western efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah will fail without pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza
Letter from Washington: The unbearable lightness of policy
- Jeremy Shapiro
- Commentary
- 4 minute read
The Democratic party is running a vibes campaign while Republicans are desperately trying to distance themselves from the disastrous policies of Project 2025. In this fifth instalment of Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro laments the loss of policy in American presidential campaigns
In the web: How the EU can untangle global technology governance
- Giorgos Verdi
- Policy Alert
- 2 minute read
To prevent further fragmentation of technology regulation and start closing digital divides, the EU should uphold the UN’s Global Digital Compact and address the needs of the global south
Green team: Von der Leyen holds the future of Europe’s climate policy in her hands
- Mats Engström
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
With a new European Commission comes a new climate team. Together, they must overcome internal concerns over ideology and external pressures on regulation to enact large-scale change
Our experts are available for media requests. Our work involves many issues relating to Europe and foreign policy, and our programmes focus on Africa, Asia, the Middle East & North Africa, and Wider Europe.
More on Africa
Beyond competition: How Europe can harness the UAE’s energy ambitions in Africa
- Maddalena Procopio, Corrado Čok
- Policy Brief
The UAE has invested heavily in Africa’s energy sectors in recent years, expanding its stakes in oil and gas, and renewables. Rather than viewing the UAE as solely a rival, Europeans should pursue a strategy of “co-opetition”, balancing competition with cooperation in areas of mutual interest, to fast-track green initiatives
Deserted: Europe’s dilemma in the Sahel
- Will Brown
- Policy Alert
- 2 minute read
Out of focus: Making progress on climate financing for Africa
- Ameer Chughtai
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
More on Asia
The idea of China
- Alicja Bachulska, Mark Leonard, Janka Oertel
- Book
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
Forget the bear hug: India’s gradual turn from Russia, towards the West
- James Crabtree
- Commentary
- 3 minute read
In the same boat: Why Taiwan is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
- Alicja Bachulska
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
More on European Power
Eco-nomics: A green industrial policy for the next European Commission
- Susi Dennison, Mats Engström
- Policy Brief
The EU cannot afford to stay divided on its green industrial policy. Instead, the next European Commission should spearhead a common and credible approach to ensure the bloc catches the next green technology wave
Quick off the bloc: Security challenges for the next European Commission
- Vessela Tcherneva
- Commentary
- 4 minute read
Going ballistic: How Europeans can respond to Iranian military support for Russia
- Julien Barnes-Dacey
- Policy Alert
- 2 minute read
More on Middle East and North Africa
Maghreb migrations: How North Africa and Europe can work together on sub-Saharan migration
- Tasnim Abderrahim
- Policy Brief
North African countries are increasingly adopting ‘security first’ approaches towards sub-Saharan African migrants – a shift that could force EU states to rethink their own approach to the issue
Beyond Netanyahu: Why Europeans need an all-of-Israel approach
- Hugh Lovatt
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
Going ballistic: How Europeans can respond to Iranian military support for Russia
- Julien Barnes-Dacey
- Policy Alert
- 2 minute read
More on United States
Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term
- Célia Belin, Majda Ruge, Jeremy Shapiro
- Policy Brief
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
The US election will overturn Europe’s strategic status quo
- Mark Leonard
- Commentary
- 3 minute read
The future of the world may depend on what a few thousand Pennsylvania voters think about their grocery bills
- Timothy Garton Ash
- Commentary
- View from the Council
- 4 minute read
More on Wider Europe
The interest of values: The EU’s democracy promotion in the Western Balkans and the eastern neighbourhood
- Piotr Buras, Marie Dumoulin, Tefta Kelmendi, Marlene Marx
- Policy Brief
With EU enlargement back on the agenda, democracy promotion in candidate countries is a key geopolitical interest for the bloc. The EU’s previous efforts to promote democracy in the Western Balkans and eastern neighbourhood may hold valuable lessons for the years ahead
The perils of predictability: Why Putin’s tightening grip on election results will backfire
- Mikhail Komin
- Commentary
- 5 minute read
Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia
- Leo Litra, Lesia Ogryzko
- Policy Alert
- 2 minute read