Europe needs to prepare for a breakdown of multilateral cooperation with Russia. Yet, in doing so, it should be careful not to provide space for Moscow to justify unilateral action of its own.
Middle East and North Africa
In an unstable world, Western policymakers need a new approach to Iran. They should think beyond non-proliferation to account for the country’s attempts at strategic balancing.
Gulf monarchies’ refusal to side with the US and Europe against Russia is not about Russia. It is about a transactional approach to protecting national interests and avoiding the costs of strategic alignment.
Europeans can play a meaningful role in the reform of Libya’s security sector if they adopt a shared strategy and operational principles
If Libya is to avoid the same political dynamics that sparked its long-running civil war, European states that are invested in Libyan diplomacy will need to focus on establishing a new electoral road map
Heightened conflict in Ukraine could have serious consequences for European interests in the Middle East and North Africa. It could further disrupt energy supplies, exacerbate food insecurity, and help states in the region gain leverage over the US and Europe.
Turkey has shown how drones can be a powerful foreign policy asset. The EU and its member states should work with the country to lead the development and regulation of this technology.
Europeans who have at heart the sustainable return of refugees, in line with Europe’s core interests and with the will of the Syrian people, should focus on ensuring that conditions on the ground in Syria allow for safe, voluntary, and dignified returns
China’s economic support for Iran in recent years encouraged Tehran to come back to the negotiating table. Instability in the Middle East is as little in Beijing’s interests as it is in the West’s.