Better firefighting: Readying Europe for an age between war and peace
Facing wars and crises, the EU can no longer rely on slow peacetime processes. It needs a plan for faster industrial and infrastructural adaptation
Geoeconomics
Featured
Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario
In the coming years, China’s leaders could make good on their pledges to “reunify” Taiwan and the Chinese mainland by force. European policymakers need to begin preparing economic statecraft options for such a scenario – and they need to do so now
Fortune favours the bold: Upgrading the EU’s geoeconomic strategy
The EU has started to join the dots between its economic and security policies. But as other powers reshape the geoeconomic landscape, it needs to upgrade its strategy beyond risk mitigation and competitiveness
14 Nov
Sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict scenario
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
From niche innovations to global powerhouse: An EU quantum strategy
Quantum technologies are transforming the global economic and security landscape, and the EU has much to gain. But without decisive action to address funding gaps and coordination challenges, its leadership potential may remain unrealised
The purpose of sanctions: Why Europe and America should begin lifting measures on Syria
Europeans and Americans should work closely together on a staged sanctions lifting process. They must connect this to respect for human rights and the holding of elections
A fragmented world: Europe’s geoeconomic dilemmas
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman to discuss how Europe can overcome its internal dysfunction to meet the geoeconomic challenges of today
Open trade, open minds: Why opposing the Mercosur trade deal would hurt the EU
An agreement between the EU and the Mercosur trade bloc promises an 800-million-person market and reduced tariffs. Yet political fears in Europe threaten to derail the landmark deal, jeopardising global alliances and the EU’s position as a leader in multilateral trade
Recharge or regret: Why the EU must act decisively to secure Europe’s struggling battery industry
Northvolt’s near-collapse demonstrates why the EU needs an economic security doctrine to identify where in the battery supply chain Europe can create winners – and then go all-in for success. If Europe continues down the same path, its battery industry will hit a wall
Art of the deal: Four ways Europeans can find new trade partners in the Trump era
Trump’s trade policy is likely to harm European trade with America. Decision-makers can start to mitigate this now
Better firefighting: Readying Europe for an age between war and peace
Facing wars and crises, the EU can no longer rely on slow peacetime processes. It needs a plan for faster industrial and infrastructural adaptation
The emergency lane: How the EU can speed up its crisis responses
In times of crisis the EU can no longer rely on its standard, slow procedures. A European Defence Production Act could transform its ability to deal with shocks
China’s trade challenges for the European economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to discuss EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the potential for future economic sanctions
Publications
Better firefighting: Readying Europe for an age between war and peace
Facing wars and crises, the EU can no longer rely on slow peacetime processes. It needs a plan for faster industrial and infrastructural adaptation
Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario
In the coming years, China’s leaders could make good on their pledges to “reunify” Taiwan and the Chinese mainland by force. European policymakers need to begin preparing economic statecraft options for such a scenario – and they need to do so now
Eco-nomics: A green industrial policy for the next European Commission
The EU cannot afford to stay divided on its green industrial policy. Instead, the next European Commission should spearhead a common and credible approach to ensure the bloc catches the next green technology wave
Fortune favours the bold: Upgrading the EU’s geoeconomic strategy
The EU has started to join the dots between its economic and security policies. But as other powers reshape the geoeconomic landscape, it needs to upgrade its strategy beyond risk mitigation and competitiveness
The infinite connection: How to make the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor happen
The India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor is alive, if not yet kicking. Europeans should use the hiatus in the corridor’s development to agree on the next steps, with a focus on reconciling the various goals of all its participants
The power of control: How the EU can shape the new era of strategic export restrictions
Amid the US-China strategic competition, the EU must develop a new strategic technology doctrine and upgrade its export control policy
Tough trade: The hidden costs of economic coercion
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
Geo-tech politics: Why technology shapes European power
New technologies are a significant force shaping international relations. If the EU wants to be more than a mediator between the US and China, it will need to change its mindset
Measured response: How to design a European instrument against economic coercion
The anti-coercion instrument needs to enable countermeasures that are both effective and credible; if it does not, this could carry more risks than benefits
Defending Europe’s Economic Sovereignty: new ways to resist economic coercion
The EU should move quickly to consider and adopt a suite of tools to protect and enhance European sovereignty in the geo-economic sphere
Articles
From niche innovations to global powerhouse: An EU quantum strategy
Quantum technologies are transforming the global economic and security landscape, and the EU has much to gain. But without decisive action to address funding gaps and coordination challenges, its leadership potential may remain unrealised
The purpose of sanctions: Why Europe and America should begin lifting measures on Syria
Europeans and Americans should work closely together on a staged sanctions lifting process. They must connect this to respect for human rights and the holding of elections
Open trade, open minds: Why opposing the Mercosur trade deal would hurt the EU
An agreement between the EU and the Mercosur trade bloc promises an 800-million-person market and reduced tariffs. Yet political fears in Europe threaten to derail the landmark deal, jeopardising global alliances and the EU’s position as a leader in multilateral trade
Recharge or regret: Why the EU must act decisively to secure Europe’s struggling battery industry
Northvolt’s near-collapse demonstrates why the EU needs an economic security doctrine to identify where in the battery supply chain Europe can create winners – and then go all-in for success. If Europe continues down the same path, its battery industry will hit a wall
Art of the deal: Four ways Europeans can find new trade partners in the Trump era
Trump’s trade policy is likely to harm European trade with America. Decision-makers can start to mitigate this now
The emergency lane: How the EU can speed up its crisis responses
In times of crisis the EU can no longer rely on its standard, slow procedures. A European Defence Production Act could transform its ability to deal with shocks
Divided we stand: The EU votes on Chinese electric vehicle tariffs
The EU vote in favour of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has exposed divisions across EU member states on how to approach the challenges that China’s economic rise pose
Need for speed: The case for a European defence production act
The EU’s red tape is preventing it from responding quickly enough to major crises. An EU defence production act could help
Cold rush: How a transatlantic ship pact can win the race for the Arctic
Icebreaker ships are critical in the competition for Arctic resources. A new initiative aims to strengthen transatlantic capabilities in building and deploying these ships, but more should be done if the pact is to counter Russian and Chinese ambitions
Innovate, protect, and influence: The EU’s technology trilemma and how to solve it
As technological competition between the US and China grows, the EU’s next technology agenda needs to be more assertive to maximise its global influence
Podcasts
A fragmented world: Europe’s geoeconomic dilemmas
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman to discuss how Europe can overcome its internal dysfunction to meet the geoeconomic challenges of today
China’s trade challenges for the European economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to discuss EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the potential for future economic sanctions
Russia, Ukraine, and Europe’s war economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova and Nicu Popescu to discuss Russia, Ukraine, and the EU’s changing response to the conflict
A vision for the future: Adapting Europe’s single market
Mark Leonard welcomes Enrico Letta to discuss the future of Europe’s single market
Shifting sands: The geoeconomic triumphs of the Gulf
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco, Agathe Demarais, and Camille Lons to discuss the geoeconomics of the Gulf
De-risking and its impact on the global economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Stephen Adams to discuss de-risking and its impact on Europe and the global economy
Digital empires: The global battle to regulate technology
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Anu Bradford to discuss her new book “Digital Empires” and the race between China, the US, and the EU to regulate tech companies and the digital economy
The Great Reset? How the EU and the UK can rethink their economic cooperation with Ivan Rogers
In this fifth episode of our new mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison talk to Ivan Rogers about the potential for a great reset in UK-EU relations
Macron and Europe: the French vision for strategic autonomy
Last week, France’s president Emmanuel Macron threw the EU bubble into turmoil by suggesting that Europe should not become the United States’ “vassal” over Taiwan
Events
14 Nov
Sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict scenario
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
1 Oct
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
2 Jul
Economic Security 2.0: What is the EU’s next geoeconomics game plan?
As the European Union sets its new agenda, this webinar will delve into geoeconomics-related priorities for the incoming European Commission. Drawing on two new ECFR…
12 Jun
Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico
La discussione “Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico”, organizzata dall’ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ed ELEC – European League for Economic Cooperation, avrà luogo, in forma virtuale, mercoledì 12 giugno 2024 dalle ore 16:30 alle ore 18:00 sulla piattaforma Zoom
11 Jun
Sanctions, contrôles aux exportations, tarifs douaniers… Comment “Trump-proofer” l’économie européenne ? A Black Coffee Morning
À seulement six mois de l’élection présidentielle américaine de novembre, les Européens s’efforcent de se préparer à une possible réélection de Donald Trump. Dans le domaine…
28 May
Connessioni infinite: Italia, Europa e progetto IMEC
L’IMEC è un progetto a lungo termine che richiede investimenti considerevoli e presenta notevoli ostacoli interni ed esterni. Ma il potenziale del corridoio di rafforzare i legami tra potenze diverse potrebbe rivelarsi prezioso in questo mondo frammentato e turbolento, con benefici geopolitici e geoeconomici per Europa ed i suoi partner
23 May
Il circolo dell’ECFR – Corridoio IMEC: prospettive per Italia ed UE
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzato sulle prospettive del corridoio IMEC come ponte economico tra Oriente ed Occidente
8 May
Rome Foreign Policy Club, Terza Edizione – Road to November 2024: prospettive e scenari globali delle elezioni americane
Nella sua edizione 2024, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani ricercatori italiani under 40 per costruire ipotesi di scenario che possano supportare la definizione di policy da parte del Ministero per gli Affari Esteri e la Cooperazione Internazionale. L’evento più significativo per l’anno in corso è indubbiamente rappresentato dalle elezioni americane di novembre il cui esito avrà enormi implicazioni su due aspetti cruciali del contesto internazionale: i rapporti con Cina e Sud Globale e le relazioni con Mosca alla luce del conflitto in Ucraina
2 May
Breaking the Debt Deadlock in Africa: the IMF’s Balancing Act with China
The economic shock after COVID-19 plunged many African economies into debt trouble. Yet, four years later, the current system for restructuring debts – the G20 Common…
In the media
Europe will be exposed to tariffs and pressure from Trump for a more aggressive decoupling from China
Mujtaba Rahman comments on economic risks for Europe under a new Trump administration
You would essentially have a NATO member annexing the territory of another NATO member. So it would be pretty uncharted territory
In their op-ed, Agathe Demarais and James Crabtree share the foreign policy issues they will be watching in the year ahead
The capitals opposing the deal are trying to build a coalition that could prevent the council from reaching the required qualified majority
Such an agreement can build a bridge between Europe and the global South