Making defence European again
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
Experts & Staff
Rafael Loss
Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Defence and security policy; military operations; nuclear strategy and arms control
Languages
German, English
Biography
Rafael Loss is a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. His work focuses on security and defence in the Euro-Atlantic area; military operations, innovation, and technology; and nuclear strategy and arms control.
Before joining ECFR, Loss was a research associate at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California. He is an alumnus of the German Federal Ministry of Defence’s Manfred Wörner Seminar, the NATO Defense College’s Early-Career Nuclear Strategists Workshop, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Nuclear Scholars Initiative.
Loss was a Fulbright fellow at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, where he earned an MA in international relations. He also holds a BA in political science from the University of Bremen.
Striking reversal: How Europeans should react to Trump’s missile cancellation
Trump’s troop cut in Germany punishes Merz and halts America’s missile plans. Now Europe needs to accelerate its sovereign long-range strike capabilities and forge new defence partnerships
Suspicious minds: Why Europeans are considering their post-America nuclear options
With America’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to US extended nuclear deterrence. Leaders should find confidence in electorate support for strengthening nuclear deterrence through European cooperation
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although these formats are fragmented and opportunistic, Europe should engage with them pragmatically
Nuuk-lear standoff: Why the US and Europe should cooperate on missile defence in the Arctic
Greenland has long played a strategic role in Western defence and missile warning systems. Now Trump’s “Golden Dome” plan offers an opportunity for US-Europe cooperation to boost Arctic security and nuclear deterrence
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
Showstoppers: How to fix Europe’s military immobility and improve deterrence
Europeans are focused on improving their military readiness—but deterrence also depends on moving forces fast. EU infrastructure plans must prepare Europe’s land, sea and air routes for commerce and conflict
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to spend more—they need to learn to lead
Flaunting mischief: Three aims of Russia’s airspace incursions
Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace are the biggest escalation with the alliance since the cold war. With it, Putin likely hopes to achieve three main goals
Blueprints on the border: Germany’s Lithuania deployment may be Europe’s new template
By stationing troops in Lithuania, Germany sets a precedent that other European powers may soon be pressed to emulate
Publications
Making defence European again
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although these formats are fragmented and opportunistic, Europe should engage with them pragmatically
Europe’s green moment: How to meet the climate challenge
Member states are not divided into two diametrically opposed camps. This makes the implementation of the European Green Deal an intricate puzzle – yet achievable
The crisis that made the European Union: European cohesion in the age of covid
The pandemic poses a threat to European cohesion by increasing economic divides and undermining trust in the EU and national governments
Articles
Striking reversal: How Europeans should react to Trump’s missile cancellation
Trump’s troop cut in Germany punishes Merz and halts America’s missile plans. Now Europe needs to accelerate its sovereign long-range strike capabilities and forge new defence partnerships
Suspicious minds: Why Europeans are considering their post-America nuclear options
With America’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to US extended nuclear deterrence. Leaders should find confidence in electorate support for strengthening nuclear deterrence through European cooperation
Nuuk-lear standoff: Why the US and Europe should cooperate on missile defence in the Arctic
Greenland has long played a strategic role in Western defence and missile warning systems. Now Trump’s “Golden Dome” plan offers an opportunity for US-Europe cooperation to boost Arctic security and nuclear deterrence
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
Showstoppers: How to fix Europe’s military immobility and improve deterrence
Europeans are focused on improving their military readiness—but deterrence also depends on moving forces fast. EU infrastructure plans must prepare Europe’s land, sea and air routes for commerce and conflict
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to spend more—they need to learn to lead
Flaunting mischief: Three aims of Russia’s airspace incursions
Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace are the biggest escalation with the alliance since the cold war. With it, Putin likely hopes to achieve three main goals
Blueprints on the border: Germany’s Lithuania deployment may be Europe’s new template
By stationing troops in Lithuania, Germany sets a precedent that other European powers may soon be pressed to emulate
More than money: How German defence can make the most of the debt break overhaul
The German parliament will likely pass a debt break exemption for defence spending on Tuesday. Freeing up the money is only the first step towards a more effective military
Live Oak reloaded: How Europe can operationalise a military presence in Ukraine
Washington is winding down its European security contributions and backing away from Ukraine. Europeans could learn from history as they wrestle with deploying a military presence to deter future Russian aggression
Specials
Multilateral Matchmaker
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Podcasts
Trump’s shadow: Reshaping politics and policy across Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR experts to unpack how Donald Trump’s presidency is reshaping Europe’s domestic politics and foreign policy
Defence and the Zeitenwende: Glass half-empty or half-full?
Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin talk German defence and the future of the country’s armed forces. They review the first…
Europe Listens: Saving multilateralism with Arancha González Laya and Richard Gowan
In September 2024, the United Nation’s Summit of the Future is set to take place – a crucial moment to mend “eroded trust” between peoples,…
Europe Listens: Exploring the deep seabed with Pradeep Singh
To achieve the ambitions of the European Green Deal, the European Commission insists that healthy oceans and a sustainable maritime economy are crucial. With rising…
Europe Listens: Protecting the high seas with Essam Yassin Mohammed
Around 70 per cent of our planet is covered by the ocean, of which two-thirds fall beyond national jurisdiction. After decades of discussions and negotiations,…
Europe Listens: Governing outer space with Ruvimbo Samanga
The global space economy is worth a whopping $469 billion, and growing fast. Commercial interests are proliferating; more and more countries are launching satellites…
Europe Listens: Combatting online disinformation with Flora Rebello Arduini
On 8 January 2023, following a contentious national election, protestors attacked government buildings in Brazil’s capital. The riots were preceded by years of online disinformation,…
Europe Listens: Overcoming the global digital divide with Jane Munga
Digital technologies are set to transform African economies. Yet, only 40 per cent of Africans accessed the internet in 2022 – well below the…
Europe Listens: Advancing green tech partnerships with Dhanasree Jayaram
Beyond the UN formats, countries around the world are forging hundreds of bilateral and multilateral agreements to advance the clean energy transition. India has emerged…
Europe Listens: Overhauling climate finance with Avinash Persaud
Action on climate financing is long overdue. Inadequate mitigation and adaptation have already led to substantial loss and damage in the most vulnerable countries. But…
Events
European Security
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for Ukraine’s future and European Defence, based on ECFR’s latest public opinion. This webinar will delve into the nuanced public perceptions of the war in Ukraine in Ukraine itself, Switzerland, the UK as well as…
European Power
ECFR’s Election Insights: Implications for Europe’s foreign policy agenda
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR offices across European capitals, the discussion will explore election outcomes in key EU member states – Bulgaria, France, Germany and Italy – and examine how the political reconfigurations in Brussels,…
13
May
European Power
Sicherheit im Baltikum: Welche Rolle spielt die Brigade Litauen?
Am 8. April 2024 brach das 21-köpfige Vorkommando der Brigade Litauen nach Vilnius auf. Die Bundeswehrangehörigen werden in den nächsten Wochen und Monaten die erste dauerhafte Stationierung eines deutschen Kampfverbands dieser Größe außerhalb der Bundesrepublik vorbereiten. Mit diesem „Leuchtturmprojekt“ der Zeitenwende setzt Deutschland ein Zeichen der Bündnissolidarität und demonstriert seine Entschlossenheit, einen maßgeblichen Beitrag zu…
8
Nov
The role of Germany in Europe in times of war: Potential for German-Bulgarian cooperation
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
European Power
Carbon border adjustment design: Opportunities for international cooperation
This Policy Dialogue will consider international reactions to the competing policy designs for CBAM, opportunities for cooperation with international partners and the role of international fora in its development such as the WTO and the forthcoming COP26
14
Jun
European Power
Deutschland vor der Wahl – Einschätzungen aus der Perspektive internationaler Politik
Der Checkpoint EXTRA findet als Kooperation zwischen der bpb und dem Berliner Büro des European Council on Foreign Relations statt
In the media
Rafael Loss on the end of FCAS
Jana Puglierin, Marta Prochwicz and Rafael Loss on a new approach to European defence
Marta Prochwicz, Jana Puglierin and Rafael Loss on a new defence model for Europe
Rafael Loss on conscription in Germany and increasing need for military self-sufficiency
Rafael Loss on the impact of the Iran War on Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing and the BRICS summit