Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public
Russia’s war on Ukraine is a test of European values. The way European governments respond is critical for European sentiment, unity, and solidarity with Ukraine
European Power
Featured
Keeping the lights on: The EU’s energy relationships since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The EU’s ‘friends in need’ have supported it through the energy crisis. The bloc must now balance buying more gas with helping supplier states develop clean energy.
Balancing the books: Why the EU needs a European debt agency
European leaders have an opportunity to reform the EU’s fiscal rules at the European Council meeting in December, but they are currently divided by competing concerns over stability and growth. A European debt agency could achieve both of these, and provide the EU with the money it needs to address today’s geopolitical crises
Hungary in waiting: The Slovak challenge for the EU and Ukraine
The new Slovak government seems a natural pro-Kremlin ally for Hungary. But there is still time for the EU, member states, and Ukraine to get Fico onside
Striking absence: Europe’s missile gap and how to close it
Europeans have been quick to enhance their missile defence capabilities. But to properly address the threat of Russia’s missiles and deter broader conflict, they need to complement defensive systems with offensive ones
In our new world disorder, the old bipolar frames of reference won’t get us anywhere
Now, a country can be aligned with the US on security while cosying up to Russia on energy and China on trade
Polywar and polyamorous geopolitics
US President Joe Biden’s largely successful response to Russia’s war against Ukraine reflects his vision of the world as a bloc of democracies facing off against revisionist autocracies. But there is growing evidence that this is a minority view, even among some of America’s closest allies
Election quake: An opportunity for a more European Dutch foreign policy
The next Dutch government will come to power amid a broad national consensus on several foreign policy topics. To capitalise on this opportunity, it will need to break with some of the traditional norms of Dutch European policy
A maker, not a taker: Why Europe needs an economic security mechanism
Europe risks becoming a taker, not a maker, of economic security norms. To prevent this, the EU should develop a European economic security mechanism.
Another blow to arms control: Russia’s ‘de-ratification’ of the nuclear test ban treaty
Russia remains a signatory of the nuclear test ban treaty and has not signalled its intention to withdraw, but the Duma’s decision to revoke the ratification sends a worrying signal about Russia’s intentions and the future of arms control
America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
Labour’s intent: Resetting Britain’s defence relationship with Europe
A new UK Labour government should move quickly to agree fresh ambitions with EU partners on defence industry collaboration and consolidation
Publications
Catch-27: The contradictory thinking about enlargement in the EU
A new power audit of member states’ positions on EU enlargement shows broad agreement that it is a geopolitical necessity, but major disagreements about how to prepare the EU. To make credible progress, EU member states need to agree on a roadmap that addresses their conflicting concerns at the European Council meeting in December
Multilateral development in flux: Strengthening European cooperation with the global south
European countries are rethinking their policies on multilateral development. In the face of intersecting crises, they should embrace a new, far-sighted vision for development cooperation.
Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
A new global opinion poll for ECFR reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. People instead prefer an a la carte arrangement, in which their governments pragmatically select their partners depending on the matter at hand
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Ends of the earth: How EU climate action can weather the coming election storm
In the run-up to a busy election year in Europe, there is a clear risk of a backlash against climate action. European policymakers need to emphasise the benefits of climate action to voters and update their policy instruments to the changing circumstances to keep the European Green Deal on course
From coal to consensus: Poland’s energy transition and its European future
Poland has the potential for an ambitious energy transition – which it should treat comparably to its accession to the EU and NATO
Star tech enterprise: Emerging technologies in Russia’s war on Ukraine
Russia’s war on Ukraine has featured many of the technological advances the world has made over the past decades. If Europeans are serious about their defence capabilities, they need to learn from this use of emerging technology on both sides of the war
Democratic defence: How Italy can lead the fight against Russian disinformation
Italy’s politics and social media remain vulnerable to Russian influence. But opportunities exist to strengthen itself for the future.
Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world
European citizens are adapting slowly to the new geopolitical landscape. But leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus on Europe’s approach to China, the US, and Russia
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
Articles
Balancing the books: Why the EU needs a European debt agency
European leaders have an opportunity to reform the EU’s fiscal rules at the European Council meeting in December, but they are currently divided by competing concerns over stability and growth. A European debt agency could achieve both of these, and provide the EU with the money it needs to address today’s geopolitical crises
Hungary in waiting: The Slovak challenge for the EU and Ukraine
The new Slovak government seems a natural pro-Kremlin ally for Hungary. But there is still time for the EU, member states, and Ukraine to get Fico onside
Striking absence: Europe’s missile gap and how to close it
Europeans have been quick to enhance their missile defence capabilities. But to properly address the threat of Russia’s missiles and deter broader conflict, they need to complement defensive systems with offensive ones
In our new world disorder, the old bipolar frames of reference won’t get us anywhere
Now, a country can be aligned with the US on security while cosying up to Russia on energy and China on trade
Polywar and polyamorous geopolitics
US President Joe Biden’s largely successful response to Russia’s war against Ukraine reflects his vision of the world as a bloc of democracies facing off against revisionist autocracies. But there is growing evidence that this is a minority view, even among some of America’s closest allies
Election quake: An opportunity for a more European Dutch foreign policy
The next Dutch government will come to power amid a broad national consensus on several foreign policy topics. To capitalise on this opportunity, it will need to break with some of the traditional norms of Dutch European policy
A maker, not a taker: Why Europe needs an economic security mechanism
Europe risks becoming a taker, not a maker, of economic security norms. To prevent this, the EU should develop a European economic security mechanism.
Another blow to arms control: Russia’s ‘de-ratification’ of the nuclear test ban treaty
Russia remains a signatory of the nuclear test ban treaty and has not signalled its intention to withdraw, but the Duma’s decision to revoke the ratification sends a worrying signal about Russia’s intentions and the future of arms control
America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
Labour’s intent: Resetting Britain’s defence relationship with Europe
A new UK Labour government should move quickly to agree fresh ambitions with EU partners on defence industry collaboration and consolidation
Specials
Energy Sovereignty Index
ECFR presents an innovative new way to assess the energy sovereignty of EU member states in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
EU Energy Deals Tracker
The energy deals the EU and its member states are now making with third countries will shape Europeans’ ability to protect their energy security in the long term. The EU Energy Deals Tracker provides a comprehensive overview of these agreements, including their implications for the sustainable transition.
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act.
The European Sentiment Compass 2022
In the wake of pandemic and war, the Sentiment Compass assesses the changing expectations of the EU across its member states. It finds that EU should harness the power of culture and the free media to nurture a stronger European sentiment – helping it to address the major challenges facing the continent.
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world.
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU.
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Independence play: Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy
To fulfil its true potential, the EU needs to end its strategic cacophony and focus on capability building
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs.
Podcasts
Digital empires: The global battle to regulate technology
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Anu Bradford to discuss her new book “Digital Empires” and the race between China, the US, and the EU to regulate tech companies and the digital economy
Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard to discuss how public sentiment can guide Europe in building partnerships and the world of tomorrow
What Europe can expect from the next US president
Mark Leonard welcomes Majda Ruge and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how the 2024 US presidential election will affect transatlantic relations
The blindsided: How France and Germany cleared the way for Russia
Mark Leonard welcomes Sylvie Kauffmann and Timothy Garton Ash to discuss the former’s new book “The Blindsided” and France and Germany’s history with Putin’s Russia
How the Polish elections will change Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin to discuss Poland’s return to Europe
Spain and Poland at the ballot box: what’s next for Europe?
Mark Leonard welcomes José Ignacio Torreblanca and Piotr Buras to discuss recent developments in Spanish and Polish politics and their impact on Europe
Defending the open society with Mark Malloch-Brown
Mark Leonard welcomes Mark Malloch-Brown to discuss the future of the open society model in Europe and the world
The great reset? How the EU and the UK can rethink their security and defence cooperation
In this seventh episode of our mini-series , Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison talk to Nick Witney and Camille Grand about the potential for a great reset in UK-EU relations, especially regarding cooperation on defence
The Great Reset? Challenges and opportunities for EU-UK cooperation
In this sixth episode of our mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison talk to Philip Rycroft about the potential for a great reset in UK-EU relations
Europe Listens: Governing outer space with Ruvimbo Samanga
The global space economy is worth a whopping $469 billion, and growing fast. Commercial interests are proliferating; more and more countries are launching satellites…
Events
12 Dec
How to convince the European public to enlarge the EU
This event will discuss new polling data of six key EU member states in the enlargement debate (Germany, France, Denmark, Austria, Poland, Romania) and reveal what voters think about the geopolitical imperative of EU enlargement
12 Dec
What do middle powers think? The view from South Africa
Many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate…
8 Dec
What do middle powers think? The view from Turkey
Many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate…
6 Dec
What do middle powers think? The view from Saudi Arabia
Many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate…
30 Nov
Uninterrupted support: What Ukraine needs from the EU in the Long War
Ahead of the European Council in December where accession talks with Ukraine are expected to be opened, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is…
29 Nov
Multilateral development cooperation in a competitive world
Please register for our online discussion on “Multilateral development cooperation in a competitive world” on Wednesday 29th November at 14.00-15.00 CET. European countries are rethinking their…
15 Nov
What do middle powers think?
As the global order continues to rapidly evolve, Europe faces important questions: how to cooperate and compete on climate, the digital economy and defence? With whom? How will the strategic choices of an increasingly diverse set of powers shape the world order? What kind of foreign policy do European citizens want to see with the 2024 European elections on the horizon?
30 Oct
La Unión Europea y América Latina y el Caribe: Una autonomía estratégica beneficiosa para ambas regiones
Según el documento de reflexión “Resilient EU 2030” presentado al Consejo Europeo informal en Granada, la Presidencia española apuesta por una autonomía estratégica abierta, que impulse los vínculos con otras regiones como América Latina y el Caribe
12 Oct
Exploring “Digital Empires”: A Black Coffee Morning with Anu Bradford
As our world becomes increasingly digitized, the strategies and approaches adopted by global players such as the United States, the European Union, and China are…
10 Oct
Europe debates: Should Italy ditch China’s Belt and Road Initiative?
Italy’s leaders are confronting a decision about whether to withdraw from a memorandum of understanding with China on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) before…
In the media
“We are in a position to mobilize considerable European resources to assist Ukraine, and this is increasingly the case at the military level”
The EU got tired of the fact that China doesn’t take seriously its economic and security concerns: indeed, this Summit might be the most conflictual in terms of rhetoric
China is trying to improve its relationship with the EU without offering substantial concessions: this way, there’s a possibility for strategic adjustments but not for a real strategy change
Ulrike Franke was on the Collimator podcast to talk about Western support for Ukraine
“A key issue is that EU member states are struggling to find a common position on China, making it difficult to have a unified European de-risking strategy.”
Agathe Demarais explains why de-risking from China will be much harder for the EU — and in particular for Germany — than for the US