Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Experts & Staff
Marie Dumoulin
Director, Wider Europe programme
Areas of expertise
Europe's Eastern neighbourhood, Russia, protracted conflicts
Languages
French, English, German, Russian, Arabic
Biography
Marie Dumoulin is the director of the Wider Europe programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Prior to joining ECFR, Dumoulin worked as a French career diplomat. She held a number of positions in French diplomatic missions abroad, e.g. in Turkmenistan, Algeria, Germany, and was seconded to the German Foreign Ministry during the German OSCE Chairmanship. Dumoulin worked with the policy planning staff (CAPS) and headed the Russia and Eastern Europe Department of the French Foreign Ministry. She has extensive experience with settlement processes of protracted conflicts in Europe’s Eastern neighbourhood.
Dumoulin holds a PhD from the Paris Institute for Political Science (Sciences Po).
Staying power: Securing peace in Ukraine while balancing European interests
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
24 Oct
Ukraine has a plan. Does the EU have one?
Nearly three years into the full-scale war, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability to counter Moscow’s relentless attacks. Now, President Zelensky has unveiled Ukraine’s…
Slippery swap: The dilemmas of prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West
The recent prisoner swap between Russia and the West raises pressing questions over how Western decision-makers should negotiate with Moscow in the future without giving it the upper hand
The interest of values: The EU’s democracy promotion in the Western Balkans and the eastern neighbourhood
With EU enlargement back on the agenda, democracy promotion in candidate countries is a key geopolitical interest for the bloc. The EU’s previous efforts to promote democracy in the Western Balkans and eastern neighbourhood may hold valuable lessons for the years ahead
Setting boundaries: The fallout of Armenia’s border agreement with Azerbaijan
What started as a promising border agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan may end up further weakening the government in Yerevan and undermining its reform agenda
25 Apr
Belarus in 2024: Navigating Trajectories of War and Repression
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
28 Mar
Rethinking & Reshaping: EU Enlargement in times of war
Russia’s war against Ukraine has prompted European policymakers to rethink their approach to enlargement. What form does this new approach take, what are the opportunities for EU and candidate countries, and what is the European Political Community’s role?
22 Mar
Insight Ukraine: How Europeans can support the fight for Europe
In challenging times for Ukraine, despite public appraisals following the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ten-year mark of the Russian…
4 Mar
Charm offensive: What should the West make of Moscow’s Efforts to Court the Global South
Exploring Russia’s global engagement and its implications for the West
Publications
The interest of values: The EU’s democracy promotion in the Western Balkans and the eastern neighbourhood
With EU enlargement back on the agenda, democracy promotion in candidate countries is a key geopolitical interest for the bloc. The EU’s previous efforts to promote democracy in the Western Balkans and eastern neighbourhood may hold valuable lessons for the years ahead
Sustain and prosper: How Europeans can support Ukraine
The EU and its member states need to make an urgent commitment to Ukraine’s security and long-term commitment to its European future. If they do not, they risk alienating the very Ukrainians they seek to support
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Steppe change: How Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshaping Kazakhstan
Domestic unrest and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Kazakhstan in a precarious position. The EU should devise an approach that encourages and guides the country to genuine domestic transformation
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
Articles
Staying power: Securing peace in Ukraine while balancing European interests
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
Slippery swap: The dilemmas of prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West
The recent prisoner swap between Russia and the West raises pressing questions over how Western decision-makers should negotiate with Moscow in the future without giving it the upper hand
Setting boundaries: The fallout of Armenia’s border agreement with Azerbaijan
What started as a promising border agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan may end up further weakening the government in Yerevan and undermining its reform agenda
Ukraine, Russia, and the Minsk agreements: A post-mortem
Western policymakers should study the lessons of the Minsk agreements – and drop any illusions about the ways in which Russia supposedly acts
Death in Russia: Navalny, morality, and politics by other means
The death of Alexei Navalny marks the end of one era in Russia’s modern history – and the consolidation of the regime’s conservative turn
After Nagorno-Karabakh: How Europeans can strengthen Armenia’s resilience
The question of Nagorno-Karabakh is unlikely to be discussed any time soon after Azerbaijan took control of the region in September. Europeans should now diplomatically engage with all sides to prevent further escalation, while supporting Armenia’s domestic political stability and strengthening its defence capabilities
The war of opportunity: How Azerbaijan’s offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh is shifting the geopolitics of the South Caucasus
Geopolitical shifts created an opportune moment for Azerbaijan to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh. With the current ceasefire on shaky ground, the EU needs to use the leverage it has to prevent further escalation
One step beyond: Why the EU needs a Russia strategy
The EU needs a Russia strategy that looks beyond the war in Ukraine. Such a policy should centre around support for countries that border Russia, the reduction of Russia’s influence worldwide, and preparation for scenarios of change within the country
Grain of truth: Why Russia rejoined the Ukraine food export deal
Turkey’s strength in the Black Sea may have persuaded Russia to return to the Ukraine grain export deal. But the agreement also lends another string to its bow
Russia’s indecision: Armenia and Azerbaijan return to violence
Moscow has declined to choose between its old friend Armenia and newer friend Azerbaijan. But the EU still has some way to go to make a difference through diplomacy
Podcasts
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Podcast special: Wagner v Putin
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, Kadri Liik, Pavel Slunkin and Kiril Shamiev to shed light on the weekend’s events and discuss the new reality that has opened up in Russia
Macron and Europe: the French vision for strategic autonomy
Last week, France’s president Emmanuel Macron threw the EU bubble into turmoil by suggesting that Europe should not become the United States’ “vassal” over Taiwan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
European solidarity and the Russia-Ukraine war
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
War in Ukraine: a stale-mate for the West and NATO’s future?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
Europe’s role in tackling the Russia-Ukraine crisis
What are European and American interests in the Russia-Ukraine crisis? What are possible ways to avert a calamity?
The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
Events
24 Oct
Ukraine has a plan. Does the EU have one?
Nearly three years into the full-scale war, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability to counter Moscow’s relentless attacks. Now, President Zelensky has unveiled Ukraine’s…
25 Apr
Belarus in 2024: Navigating Trajectories of War and Repression
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
28 Mar
Rethinking & Reshaping: EU Enlargement in times of war
Russia’s war against Ukraine has prompted European policymakers to rethink their approach to enlargement. What form does this new approach take, what are the opportunities for EU and candidate countries, and what is the European Political Community’s role?
22 Mar
Insight Ukraine: How Europeans can support the fight for Europe
In challenging times for Ukraine, despite public appraisals following the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ten-year mark of the Russian…
4 Mar
Charm offensive: What should the West make of Moscow’s Efforts to Court the Global South
Exploring Russia’s global engagement and its implications for the West
31 Jan
Power audit of EU-Russia relations: How Europeans are learning to handle a new reality
Concluding that Russia poses a threat and that the EU let its dependencies grow too deep, the bloc so far attempted to decouple from Moscow. How should Europeans navigate the adversarial relationship in the future?
1 Feb
European security order on the brink: The Russia crisis and what next
West do prevent an aggression against Ukraine? What does Kyiv expect from the EU and NATO? What is the future of the European security order? What are the perspectives of the key EU member states and Ukraine?
27 Jan
Tensions in the East: How to strengthen a common European position vis-à-vis Russia?
This webinar will bring together a collection of EU and British views to see where everyone stands on the Russia-Ukraine crisis
17 Jan
CSTO intervention in Kazakhstan: what is it about and what is Russia’s agenda?
What consequences could the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation intervention have for Kazakhstan and the geopolitical balance in Central Asia?
In the media
Despite a remarkable unity since 2022, Europeans are rapidly dividing over Ukraine
Marie Dumoulin and Camille Grand analyse the state of support for Ukraine in the different member states after Trump’s election
There is no real cost to the Russians in accepting terms that fall short of their initial objectives, and then restarting their military operations at a later date
Marie Dumoulin comments on potential negotiations led by Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine
Marie Dumoulin comments on the US authorisation for Ukraine to send long-range missiles
Following Donald Trump’s re-election, Marie Dumoulin was invited to the AFP podcast to discuss the conditions for an acceptable peace in Ukraine
Russia can now activate a ‘solidarity clause’ with North Korea, which means that Pyongyang could have Russian support in case of rising tensions with South Korea
Marie Dumoulin on the defence treaty ratified between Russia and North Korea