Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
European Security
ECFR’s European Security programme supports policymakers with concrete, forward-looking ideas to act more swiftly and effectively in crises and to help rebuild a peaceful Europe.
The programme focuses on four key areas: enhancing Europe’s security and defence capacity, including on nuclear deterrence, defence cooperation and EU-NATO relations; advancing the EU enlargement process and the accession of the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine; analysing the political, military, and societal dynamics in Russia, the South Caucasus and Turkey; and addressing non-military security needs such as critical infrastructure protection, legal frameworks and societal resilience.
Featured
Accelerate the accessions: Why faster is better in EU enlargement policy
The Ukraine war has revived EU enlargement for Albania, Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine, but they face obstacles. Accelerating membership for these frontrunners would unlock the process before rivals can take advantage
Occupational therapy: Frozen conflicts, Russian aggression and EU enlargement
As Russia accelerates its annexation of “frozen conflict” regions, the EU must enhance its policy to counter Moscow’s influence
Ore and order: Russia’s rare-earth strategy for the Ukraine talks
If Europe reopens talks with Vladimir Putin, Moscow could turn Western dependence on Chinese rare earths into leverage. A new $9.2bn processing hub in Siberia will be at the heart of this plan
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
Europeans have leverage in the face of Trump’s threats towards Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective…
Putin’s longest war: Calling time on Russia’s endurance myth
Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany, with incomparably smaller gains. The West should stop buying into Moscow’s bluff that Russia is invincible; instead, it should use the Kremlin’s weaknesses and double down on its support for Ukraine to bring about real negotiations to end the war
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
Peace with teeth: What Britain and France’s troop commitment means for Ukraine
Britain and France have committed to deploying their armies on the ground in Ukraine. This is one step towards providing the robust security guarantees the country needs to deter future Russian aggression
Decision time for Europe
Given the Trump administration’s recent statements and policy pronouncements, European leaders no longer have any excuse for failing to map out their own long-term security strategy. If they can get their act together on ending the Ukraine war, they will gain a much stronger position on other key fronts, too
The next ‘big bang’: How the EU can fast-track enlargement amid geopolitical tensions
Quickly bringing in the Western Balkan candidates, Ukraine and Moldova to counter Russia or China poses many dilemmas for the EU
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
Ukrainian border, Balkan future: How Trump’s peace deal could impact Kosovo and Serbia
A Russia-Ukraine peace deal that capitulates to Putin risks destabilising the Western Balkans, emboldening Serbian territorial claims and undermining EU credibility
Publications
Accelerate the accessions: Why faster is better in EU enlargement policy
The Ukraine war has revived EU enlargement for Albania, Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine, but they face obstacles. Accelerating membership for these frontrunners would unlock the process before rivals can take advantage
Occupational therapy: Frozen conflicts, Russian aggression and EU enlargement
As Russia accelerates its annexation of “frozen conflict” regions, the EU must enhance its policy to counter Moscow’s influence
The bear behind the ballot: Moldova’s election in the shadow of war
After a string of votes marred by Russian interference, Moldova is gearing up to elect its new parliament in September. As the election approaches, the Kremlin seems to be intensifying its efforts to thwart the president’s pro-European party, PAS, threatening the country’s EU accession
Preventing the next war: A European plan for Ukraine
Together with the Ukrainians, Europeans should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or even a peace deal
How to arm a pacifist: Lessons from Ukraine for the EU’s defence
EU leaders have to learn lessons from Ukraine if they want to be truly ready to take responsibility for Europe’s security
Law of duty: The case for a US-inspired EU Preparedness Act
The EU needs a legal instrument to override rules in war or major security crises, empowering institutions to prioritize military production, secure supply chains and allocate vital resources effectively
Strength in members: How to rally EU enlargement for defence
The EU’s accession process ignores defence while NATO cannot cover all the candidates. Tailored defence cooperation roadmaps offer a promising path to protect Europe’s periphery without NATO membership
Northern lights: How a Nordic-Baltic coalition of the willing can do even more for Ukraine
The NB8 countries are some of Ukraine’s most steadfast supporters. Amid shifting transatlantic politics, their role in strengthening Ukraine’s defence is set to become increasingly vital
Better firefighting: Readying Europe for an age between war and peace
Facing wars and crises, the EU can no longer rely on slow peacetime processes. It needs a plan for faster industrial and infrastructural adaptation
Control-Alt-Deliver: A digital grand strategy for the European Union
The EU is falling behind the US and China in the digital realm. It urgently needs a new agenda combining innovation, security, and influence for an age of geopoliticised technology
Articles
Ore and order: Russia’s rare-earth strategy for the Ukraine talks
If Europe reopens talks with Vladimir Putin, Moscow could turn Western dependence on Chinese rare earths into leverage. A new $9.2bn processing hub in Siberia will be at the heart of this plan
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
Putin’s longest war: Calling time on Russia’s endurance myth
Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany, with incomparably smaller gains. The West should stop buying into Moscow’s bluff that Russia is invincible; instead, it should use the Kremlin’s weaknesses and double down on its support for Ukraine to bring about real negotiations to end the war
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
Peace with teeth: What Britain and France’s troop commitment means for Ukraine
Britain and France have committed to deploying their armies on the ground in Ukraine. This is one step towards providing the robust security guarantees the country needs to deter future Russian aggression
Decision time for Europe
Given the Trump administration’s recent statements and policy pronouncements, European leaders no longer have any excuse for failing to map out their own long-term security strategy. If they can get their act together on ending the Ukraine war, they will gain a much stronger position on other key fronts, too
The next ‘big bang’: How the EU can fast-track enlargement amid geopolitical tensions
Quickly bringing in the Western Balkan candidates, Ukraine and Moldova to counter Russia or China poses many dilemmas for the EU
Ukrainian border, Balkan future: How Trump’s peace deal could impact Kosovo and Serbia
A Russia-Ukraine peace deal that capitulates to Putin risks destabilising the Western Balkans, emboldening Serbian territorial claims and undermining EU credibility
Bromance in Belarus: What Europeans need to know about the Trump-Lukashenka team-up
Trump and Lukashenka’s new found dialogue leaves the EU in a bind. However, there is a middle ground to be found between passively waiting for regime change in Belarus and risking a fallout with Washington
The death of the West
America’s new National Security Strategy has shaken Europe’s leaders awake to the end of the transatlantic alliance as they know it. But Europeans have the means to stand up for themselves—if they choose to seize them
Podcasts
The diplomatic minefield: What now for Ukraine?
Leo Litra and Lesia Ogryzko are joined by Eric Ciaramella and Jana Kobzova to discuss the development and its implications
Trump’s 28-point plan for Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to unpack the leaked 28-point US-Russia plan for Ukraine and its implications for European security
The future of European air defence
Mark Leonard welcomes Ulrike Franke to unpack the crisis around Europe’s Future Combat Air System
The EU’s enlargement reality check
Jessica Hendrick takes over The Neighbourhood to unpack what the EU’s 2025 Enlargement Package reveals about both Brussels’s expectations and life inside the candidate countries
Ukraine, Russia and Trump’s sanctions gamble
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to discuss the latest twists in diplomacy between Ukraine, Russia and the West
The Neighbourhood: Europe’s enlargement moment
Mark Leonard launches ECFR’s new RE-ENGAGE podcast series with Lykke Friis to explore the future of EU enlargement and Denmark’s role in shaping it
Lessons for Europe: Inside Ukraine’s drone war
Lesia Ogryzko and Leo Litra welcome Lyuba Shipovich and Gustav Gressel to unpack how warfare in Ukraine is changing and if Europe can respond
The dog days of summer: Ukraine battles and diplomacy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to break down the summer’s key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine
Beyond the battlefield: Europe’s long-term strategy for Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand and Jana Kobzova to discuss ECFR’s new European Security programme and the war in Ukraine
Events
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
27
Nov
European Power
Demografia e Competizione Internazionale: Il ruolo dell’Europa nel mondo di domani
Torino, 27 Novembre 2025NH Collection Piazza Carlina, Piazza Carlo Emanuele II, 15 Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà la transizione demografica, che pone l’Italia e l’Europa di fronte a una sfida esistenziale per il loro futuro sulla scena globale. Un continente sempre più anziano e con un saldo demografico negativo rischia…
6
Nov
European Power
Oltre l’Emergenza: Italia e Minacce Ibride tra Crisi Immediata e Rischio Sistemico
Roma, 6 novembre 2025Hotel NH Collection Roma Centro, Via dei Gracchi 324, 00192 Roma Nel contesto internazionale segnato da una crescente competizione sistemica, le minacce ibride rappresentano oggi una delle sfide più complesse per la sicurezza nazionale ed europea. L’incontro intende promuovere un confronto tra istituzioni, think tank e settore privato per analizzare la natura…
20
Oct
European Power
Closed-door Round-Table – Addressing hybrid threats in Europe: Critical infrastructure and the shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea and Mediterranean
Roma, 20 Ottobre 202512.00-14.00Centro Studi Americani, Via Michelangelo Caetani, 32 Lingua: Inglese L’evento si è svolto nell’ambito del Festival della Diplomazia, della Presidenza polacca del Consiglio degli Stati del Mar Baltico e della Presidenza danese del Consiglio dell’Unione Europea
13
Oct
European Power
Home Alone: Europe at the Breaking Point?
Roma, 13 Ottobre 202519:00-21:00 Terrazza Civita, Piazza Venezia 11, 00186 Lingua: Inglese…
14
Oct
European Security
Preventing War in Europe: Swift Action for Peace
Roma, 14 Ottobre 202509:00-12:30 Spazio Vittoria, Via Vittoria Colonna, 11, 00193 RomaTraduzione simultanea inglese-italiano. Per registrarsi: qui (posti limitati, gli organizzatori si riservano di confermare agli iscritti)…
16
Sep
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR Rise to the Challengers: rivoluzione della politica estera europea?
Torino, 16 Settembre 202512:30-14:30 NH Collection Piazza Carlina, Piazza Vittorio Emanuele II, 15 Lingua: Italiano Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzato sui cosiddetti partiti europei Challengers, ovvero i partiti populisti in ascesa in UE, dalla destra alla sinistra. Tali attori politici stanno progressivamente “scuotendo” il mainstream della politica estera europea, acquisendo…
9
Jul
European Security
Round-Table – Breaking the Chain: Countering Shadow Fleet Operations in Europe’s Strategic Waterways
The event will contribute to the wider Ukraine Recovery Conference by examining a critical dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the economic infrastructure underlying the conflict and the maritime security challenges it creates for Europe. It aims to create space for discussion among key experts and stakeholders on policy options to address Russian economic circumvention…
European Power
Defence without America? What Europeans are (and aren’t) ready for
Days before a high-stakes NATO summit, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) hosts to a timely webinar on European public attitudes towards Europe’s defence, the first turbulent months of President Trump’s new term, and the capacity of Europe to respond to a changing transatlantic reality. This webinar will launch our brand-new public opinion report,…
28
Mar
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – L’Europa in scena: attore non protagonista del nuovo scenario internazionale?
Questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzata sulla risposta dell’Europa alla seconda presidenza Trump. Le tensioni tra gli Stati Uniti di Donald Trump e l’UE si intensificano, segnando probabilmente la fine dell’alleanza transatlantica così come l’abbiamo conosciuta negli ultimi 80 anni. Secondo l’ultimo report-sondaggio di ECFR, la maggioranza degli europei non vede più gli…
In the media
Teresa Coratella on Giorgia Meloni and her possible role in defining a common European response to Donald Trump
Alberto Rizzi on the US’s current options for securing icebreaker ships, and how Finland is using them for geopolitical and economic leverage
Alberto Rizzi on the key role of icebreakers in accessing Greenland and its main production countries
Tiago Antunes on his recent research visit to Greenland, which aimed to verify Trump’s arguments and include Greenland’s perspective
Ivan Krastev on the ECFR policy brief How Trump is making China great again—and what it means for Europe,