Bewitched sleep: Russians’ views on Ukraine and the world
New research shows Russians see little prospect of influencing the war in Ukraine, but expect relations with Europe to improve in the future
European Security
ECFR’s European Security programme supports policymakers with concrete, forward-looking ideas to act more swiftly and effectively in crises and to help rebuild a peaceful Europe.
The programme focuses on four key areas: enhancing Europe’s security and defence capacity, including on nuclear deterrence, defence cooperation and EU-NATO relations; advancing the EU enlargement process and the accession of the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine; analysing the political, military, and societal dynamics in Russia, the South Caucasus and Turkey; and addressing non-military security needs such as critical infrastructure protection, legal frameworks and societal resilience.
Featured
Booted, then suited: Veterans and the making of Putin’s new proto-elite
The Kremlin is promoting Ukraine war veterans–cultivating a proto-elite who could reinforce Russia’s militarised course
In the bear’s paw: How Europeans can loosen Russia’s grip on Belarus
Russia’s growing military intervention in Belarus poses a frontline security challenge for Europe. The EU needs to develop a more pragmatic strategy based on protecting its eastern border and shaping Minsk’s autonomy away from Moscow
Marching into the Duma: The cost of Putin’s push for war veterans in parliament
Putin wants to make politicians out of Ukraine war veterans. After the recent election, 60 now sit in the Duma. But voters seem less keen than the official vote share suggests, and that could become a problem for the Kremlin
Albania: The Flamingo Revolution explained
Jessica Hendrick welcomes Enri Hide and Ditmir Bushati to discuss how the protest movement drawing in local communities, Trump-linked investors, EU enlargement officials and international media took flight
Bewitched sleep: Russians’ views on Ukraine and the world
New research shows Russians see little prospect of influencing the war in Ukraine, but expect relations with Europe to improve in the future
16
Oct
European Security
Hybridreams—Imagining otherwise in times of crisis
How do we imagine Europe’s future when war and political upheaval are challenging assumptions once thought stable?ECFR will join the European Cultural Foundation for HYBRIDREAMS – Imagining otherwise in times of crisis, a public roundtable at the Moldova Pavilion at the 61st International Art Exhibition of La Biennale di Venezia.Nicu Popescu, ECFR’s…
30
Sep
European Security
Beyond the NATO Summit: What Future for European Security
Amid growing uncertainty, Europeans face a fundamental challenge: how to keep themselves safe with potentially less America while deterring a more aggressive Russia. Europe’s security environment has been exposed to vulnerabilities not only on the battlefield but also across cyberspace, critical infrastructure, supply chains, energy networks, and the information sphere. Hybrid threats have become a…
Turkey’s place in Europe
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow at ECFR and a fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe…
Ukraine’s winter of pressure
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to discuss the mountain pressure on Ukraine and how Europe can help it weather another wartime winter
The geopolitics of global hunger
Mark Leonard welcomes Cary Fowler and Jim O’Brien to discuss the factors behind the escalating risk of a major food crisis—and Europe’s role in preventing catastrophe
Ukraine: The battle beyond war
Jessica Hendrick welcomes Roman Petrov and Svitlana Zalishchuk to discuss Ukraine’s simultaneous fight for survival on the frontlines and battle for democracy at home
Booted, then suited: Veterans and the making of Putin’s new proto-elite
The Kremlin is promoting Ukraine war veterans–cultivating a proto-elite who could reinforce Russia’s militarised course
Publications
Bewitched sleep: Russians’ views on Ukraine and the world
New research shows Russians see little prospect of influencing the war in Ukraine, but expect relations with Europe to improve in the future
Booted, then suited: Veterans and the making of Putin’s new proto-elite
The Kremlin is promoting Ukraine war veterans–cultivating a proto-elite who could reinforce Russia’s militarised course
In the bear’s paw: How Europeans can loosen Russia’s grip on Belarus
Russia’s growing military intervention in Belarus poses a frontline security challenge for Europe. The EU needs to develop a more pragmatic strategy based on protecting its eastern border and shaping Minsk’s autonomy away from Moscow
Buzzkill: How to defend Europe against drones
Drone warfare in Europe is no longer tomorrow’s problem. The continent is under attack by drones today, and the threat is not isolated in the east
The magnificent ten: A coalition of the willing to drive the EU’s next enlargement
A Team Enlargement coalition of EU member states can drive the changes needed to bring Ukraine and others into the bloc
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilities and create a strategic deterrent that can function without US support
Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
Making defence European again
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
Fast energy: How Europe can power the AI revolution and stay competitive
Europeans must urgently implement a “fast energy” programme to speed up access to energy to power AI—and remain competitive in the world
From shield to sword: Europe’s offensive strategy for the hybrid age
Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the time has come for them to fight back
Articles
Marching into the Duma: The cost of Putin’s push for war veterans in parliament
Putin wants to make politicians out of Ukraine war veterans. After the recent election, 60 now sit in the Duma. But voters seem less keen than the official vote share suggests, and that could become a problem for the Kremlin
Against war, drought and hunger: A global coalition to prevent a food crisis
Three features of today’s unordered world are converging to create a devastating food crisis. Russia’s war in Ukraine is disrupting agricultural exports from both…
NATO’s digital arsenal: How Europe can avoid a new dependence on America
AI-powered command systems are becoming the backbone of modern warfare. NATO needs shared standards, but if those rest on American software, interoperability will come at the price of dependence
The fallout of the fallout: Zelensky’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine
Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny
Behind the curve: Britain’s defence investment plan in Trump’s world
The new defence investment plan is weighed down by the habits of Britain’s defence establishment. By contrast, the British public appear readier to accept change
Twin track: How to move Ukraine’s EU accession along
The lifting of the Hungarian veto opens up new opportunities for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s EU accession
Combat lessons: What Europeans should learn from Ukraine
Buying new kit is easy. The real challenge for European militaries is to rethink how they organise themselves—and how they plan to fight
Code, clouds, satellite: The defence layer Europe should not outsource
As Europe rearms, the real vulnerability is not on tanks or missiles but the software and networks behind them. The union can import weapons. It cannot afford to outsource the digital systems that make modern military power possible
The battle for the mind: How Europe can stay safe in the cognitive threat era
Under a barrage of cognitive warfare, European governments need institutions designed to interpret threats, coordinate responses and act fast
Romania’s government collapse is a trap with no easy exit
Ilie Bolojan’s toppling in a no-confidence vote has exposed Romania’s fiscal and political insecurities. Rebuilding the country’s pro-European coalition could bring stability, but at the expense of further populist backsliding over the long term
Podcasts
Albania: The Flamingo Revolution explained
Jessica Hendrick welcomes Enri Hide and Ditmir Bushati to discuss how the protest movement drawing in local communities, Trump-linked investors, EU enlargement officials and international media took flight
Turkey’s place in Europe
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow at ECFR and a fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe…
Ukraine’s winter of pressure
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to discuss the mountain pressure on Ukraine and how Europe can help it weather another wartime winter
The geopolitics of global hunger
Mark Leonard welcomes Cary Fowler and Jim O’Brien to discuss the factors behind the escalating risk of a major food crisis—and Europe’s role in preventing catastrophe
Ukraine: The battle beyond war
Jessica Hendrick welcomes Roman Petrov and Svitlana Zalishchuk to discuss Ukraine’s simultaneous fight for survival on the frontlines and battle for democracy at home
Bonus episode: The EU enlargement game
In a special episode recorded live from Lisbon, Jessica Hendrick puts six EU candidate countries through an enlargement simulation to find out what happens when crisis, cash, disinformation and political pressure collide with the race to join the EU
European defence after the NATO summit
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska to discuss last week’s NATO summit and how Europe can prepare for a future in which American security guarantees are no longer assured
Is Europe’s support for Ukraine changing as the war goes on?
As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, European governments are facing difficult questions about military support, diplomacy and the long-term security of the continent. How…
Why Europeans are readier than you think to defend themselves
Public support for stronger European defence is at its highest level in years. But can European leaders translate this momentum into lasting policy change?…
The crucial role of Article 5: Can NATO hold without US leadership?
Europe’s security architecture is undergoing profound change. As the US reassesses its global priorities and questions grow over the future of transatlantic security, European…
Events
16
Oct
European Security
Hybridreams—Imagining otherwise in times of crisis
How do we imagine Europe’s future when war and political upheaval are challenging assumptions once thought stable?ECFR will join the European Cultural Foundation for HYBRIDREAMS – Imagining otherwise in times of crisis, a public roundtable at the Moldova Pavilion at the 61st International Art Exhibition of La Biennale di Venezia.Nicu Popescu, ECFR’s…
30
Sep
European Security
Beyond the NATO Summit: What Future for European Security
Amid growing uncertainty, Europeans face a fundamental challenge: how to keep themselves safe with potentially less America while deterring a more aggressive Russia. Europe’s security environment has been exposed to vulnerabilities not only on the battlefield but also across cyberspace, critical infrastructure, supply chains, energy networks, and the information sphere. Hybrid threats have become a…
15
May
European Security
Кой ще защити Европа: Отговори от Париж и София
Вход свободен. Със задължителна регистрация. ЗАПИШЕТЕ СЕ Осигурен симултанен превод френски/български Посолството на Франция, Френският институт в България и Европейският съвет за външна политика представят конференция-дискусията „Кой ще защити Европа: Отговори от Париж и София. Диалог между Мюриел Доменак, бивш посланик на Франция в НАТО и Весела Чернева, заместник-директор на Европейския съвет за външна…
22
Apr
European Power
THE BRIDGE Italy – Poland Strategic Forum “A committed partnership: politics and economy between the Baltic and the Mediterranean”
Il 22 aprile, l’Ambasciata della Repubblica di Polonia a Roma, il Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale della Repubblica Italiana e il Ministero degli Affari Esteri della Repubblica di Polonia, in collaborazione con The Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs e European Council on Foreign Relations, hanno organizzato l’evento “THE BRIDGE Italy –…
26
Mar
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump…
27
Nov
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Demografia e Competizione Internazionale: Il ruolo dell’Europa nel mondo di domani
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR è la transizione demografica, che pone l’Italia e l’Europa di fronte a una sfida esistenziale per il loro futuro sulla scena globale. Un continente sempre più anziano e con un saldo demografico negativo rischia concretamente di retrocedere a una posizione secondaria nei nuovi equilibri economici…
6
Nov
European Power
Oltre l’Emergenza: Italia e Minacce Ibride tra Crisi Immediata e Rischio Sistemico
Nel contesto internazionale segnato da una crescente competizione sistemica, le minacce ibride rappresentano oggi una delle sfide più complesse per la sicurezza nazionale ed europea. L’incontro intende promuovere un confronto tra istituzioni, think tank e settore privato per analizzare la natura multivettoriale e sistemica di tali minacce, e individuare strategie di contrasto e strumenti…
20
Oct
European Power
Closed-door Round-Table – Addressing hybrid threats in Europe: Critical infrastructure and the shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea and Mediterranean
L’evento si è svolto nell’ambito del Festival della Diplomazia, della Presidenza polacca del Consiglio degli Stati del Mar Baltico e della Presidenza danese del Consiglio dell’Unione Europea. Tra i partner: Ambasciata di Polonia a Roma; Ambasciata di Estonia a Roma; Ambasciata di Danimarca a Roma; Presidenza polacca del Consiglio degli Stati del…
13
Oct
