Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it
Geoeconomics and Tech
Economic, financial and technological shifts are reshaping the global order. Globalisation has created world-spanning supply chains and with them, a web of dependencies. Meanwhile, profound changes to the economic landscape are reshaping the global financial system. And, increasing digitalisation and the emergence of disruptive frontier technologies create a host of new geopolitical challenges.
ECFR’s research on geoeconomics and technology explores these shifts and their geopolitical impact. It analyses trade tensions, the rise of non-Western financial systems, the green transition, frontier technologies and global technology rivalries. It also explores how these technological and economic changes impact relations with China, foreign interference and democracy. Finally, it recommends how the EU can boost ties with middle powers and emerging economies to create opportunities in this rapidly changing landscape.
Featured
Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion
Europe has a China problem and pretending otherwise is making it worse. Chinese cheap exports and a monopoly on rare earths are not just economic irritants, but leverage wielded deliberately. Europeans can no longer just de-risk. They need a deterrence strategy with teeth
From shield to sword: Europe’s offensive strategy for the hybrid age
Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the time has come for them to fight back
EU Incorporated: The way to start-up European competitiveness
With American competitiveness declining, the EU has a chance to offer tech start-ups something better. To create this new generation of EU Incs, the bloc will first need to better align its regulation and resources
2
Jul
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Hormuz, energia e connettività: la doppia sfida per l’Europa
La chiusura dello Stretto di Hormuz ha posto l’Europa di fronte a una doppia sfida: ripensare la transizione energetica in un contesto di forte incertezza sugli idrocarburi e sviluppare nuove rotte di connettività per ridurre la vulnerabilità a shock geopolitici. Tra i temi al centro del confronto: l’elettrificazione come pilastro necessario ma non sufficiente,…
18
May
Global Strategy Lab: the UK’s geopolitical choices and trade-offs
Reflecting on the findings from our previous events and drawing on Mark Leonard’s latest IPPR paper, Britain’s strategy for a decade of danger: Our nation, our continent, our world, the discussion will examine competing visions for Britain’s role in the world—from renewed reliance on the US, to a more globally diversified approach, to a strategic pivot…
29
Apr
Global Strategy Lab: the UK’s geopolitical choices and trade-offs on clean tech
As the UK pursues its ambition to become a “clean energy superpower”, it will have to navigate working with major geopolitical partners, like China and the EU, and the strategic trade-offs involved with aligning closer with one over the other. China has become an increasingly important supplier, investor, and manufacturer across key clean technologies,…
12
Jan
Soberanía Tecnológica Europea: Valores Humanos y Retos Geopolíticos
Entre enero y marzo de 2026, Aspen Institute España y la oficina de Madrid del European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) celebraron, en formato online, un ciclo de tres sesiones a puerta cerrada sobre la nueva estrategia digital europea. El ciclo tuvo lugar en un momento en el que la Unión…
Musk’s war on European democracy: How to open up X and fight back
The EU should apply two remedies to address political interference via X
Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it
3
Jun
Asia
2026 Republic of Korea (ROK)–G7 cooperation forum
The G7 and its close partners, particularly the Republic of Korea (ROK), face a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape marked by growing economic competition, technological fragmentation, and mounting security challenges. From supply chain vulnerabilities to shifting alliances and rising geopolitical tensions, these developments are testing the resilience of existing frameworks for international cooperation
How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest
Chilled ambitions: How the Iran war is foiling Europe’s LNG plans
Iranian strikes on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure are complicating Brussels’ plans to ditch Russian gas, handing Washington and Moscow fresh leverage
Publications
Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it
Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion
Europe has a China problem and pretending otherwise is making it worse. Chinese cheap exports and a monopoly on rare earths are not just economic irritants, but leverage wielded deliberately. Europeans can no longer just de-risk. They need a deterrence strategy with teeth
From shield to sword: Europe’s offensive strategy for the hybrid age
Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the time has come for them to fight back
The electric endgame: Europe’s clean path out of vassalage
The geoeconomic power of the future will be shaped by climate policy. Countries that play the right moves in regulation, clean-tech production and climate finance today will win in the electrified world of tomorrow
Get over your X: A European plan to escape American technology
Foreign technology companies cannot be entrusted with meeting Europe’s growing digital needs. This includes American big tech firms. Here’s what Europeans should do
Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after Donald Trump leaves the White House
Markets, migrants, microchips: European power in a world of demographic change
European policymakers should take the long view on demographic change, strengthening Europe’s place in the world through stronger international partnerships, the use of technology and EU enlargement
Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion
Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relations it has ways of retaliating
No brain, no brawn: Trump 2.0 makes an EU Economic Security Network essential
The EU lacks cohesive governance to deploy economic statecraft tools, such as sanctions and export controls, undermining their impact and the bloc’s global credibility. The creation of an EU network focused on the design and implementation of these tools could help fix this
Control-Alt-Deliver: A digital grand strategy for the European Union
The EU is falling behind the US and China in the digital realm. It urgently needs a new agenda combining innovation, security, and influence for an age of geopoliticised technology
Articles
EU Incorporated: The way to start-up European competitiveness
With American competitiveness declining, the EU has a chance to offer tech start-ups something better. To create this new generation of EU Incs, the bloc will first need to better align its regulation and resources
Musk’s war on European democracy: How to open up X and fight back
The EU should apply two remedies to address political interference via X
How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest
Chilled ambitions: How the Iran war is foiling Europe’s LNG plans
Iranian strikes on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure are complicating Brussels’ plans to ditch Russian gas, handing Washington and Moscow fresh leverage
Sowing discord: How Russia is making the most of a global fertiliser shortage
Amid fears of an Iran war-fuelled global food crisis, Moscow is weaponising access to its fertiliser supplies in both Western countries and developing economies
Why China, not Russia, could be the real winner of the Iran war
Russia’s oil bonanza will hardly bridge its huge fiscal gap. China’s current pains are real, but its gains could last
Calling Paris and Washington: Three areas for G7-G20 collaboration in 2026
France’s G7 presidency coincides with an American-led G20. Paris will not find it easy to collaborate with the Trump administration, but it can still find meaningful areas for G7-G20 cooperation
It’s the (geo)economy, stupid: Why the EU-India deal matters beyond trade
The EU and India have just concluded the biggest trade deal in their respective histories. Europeans will benefit from lower tariffs with the G20’s fastest-growing economy—and potentially game-changing geoeconomic ties
Keep ice cool: How Europeans should respond to Trump’s Greenland tariff threats
Rather than panicking or posturing, European leaders should prioritise EU unity, pinpoint their leverage and consider buying time
Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine
Ukraine receives a vital lifeline, but it is not coming from immobilised Russian reserves
Podcasts
Made in China: How Europe can tackle economic coercion
Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke and Andrew Small to discuss how Europeans can combat varieties of Chinese economic coercion
Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war
Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke to unpack the escalating EU-US trade war and Europe’s next moves
Uncrowded house: European power during demographic change
Mark Leonard is joined by Alberto Rizzi to discuss the global demographic transition and its implications for Europe’s economic future
Tariffs, tensions, and trade: Trump’s gamble on China
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to examine the diverse perspectives on US-China relations and how Europe can navigate this changing geopolitical landscape
Trump’s tariff bombshell: Rewriting the rules of global trade
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais to unpack Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and their seismic impact on the global economy
Europe vs. Trump: Deterrence or escalation?
Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke and José Ignacio Torreblanca to explore Europe’s leverage against Donald Trump’s economic and technological coercion
A fragmented world: Europe’s geoeconomic dilemmas
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman to discuss how Europe can overcome its internal dysfunction to meet the geoeconomic challenges of today
China’s trade challenges for the European economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to discuss EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the potential for future economic sanctions
Infrastructures and connectivity: Building bridges
In the first big multilateral test for prime minister Giorgia Meloni, this mini-series will explore the four main priorities of Italy’s 2024 G7 presidency: Ukraine, AI, infrastructure, and Africa
A vision for the future: Adapting Europe’s single market
Mark Leonard welcomes Enrico Letta to discuss the future of Europe’s single market
Events
2
Jul
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Hormuz, energia e connettività: la doppia sfida per l’Europa
La chiusura dello Stretto di Hormuz ha posto l’Europa di fronte a una doppia sfida: ripensare la transizione energetica in un contesto di forte incertezza sugli idrocarburi e sviluppare nuove rotte di connettività per ridurre la vulnerabilità a shock geopolitici. Tra i temi al centro del confronto: l’elettrificazione come pilastro necessario ma non sufficiente,…
18
May
Global Strategy Lab: the UK’s geopolitical choices and trade-offs
Reflecting on the findings from our previous events and drawing on Mark Leonard’s latest IPPR paper, Britain’s strategy for a decade of danger: Our nation, our continent, our world, the discussion will examine competing visions for Britain’s role in the world—from renewed reliance on the US, to a more globally diversified approach, to a strategic pivot…
29
Apr
Global Strategy Lab: the UK’s geopolitical choices and trade-offs on clean tech
As the UK pursues its ambition to become a “clean energy superpower”, it will have to navigate working with major geopolitical partners, like China and the EU, and the strategic trade-offs involved with aligning closer with one over the other. China has become an increasingly important supplier, investor, and manufacturer across key clean technologies,…
12
Jan
Soberanía Tecnológica Europea: Valores Humanos y Retos Geopolíticos
Entre enero y marzo de 2026, Aspen Institute España y la oficina de Madrid del European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) celebraron, en formato online, un ciclo de tres sesiones a puerta cerrada sobre la nueva estrategia digital europea. El ciclo tuvo lugar en un momento en el que la Unión…
3
Jun
Asia
2026 Republic of Korea (ROK)–G7 cooperation forum
The G7 and its close partners, particularly the Republic of Korea (ROK), face a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape marked by growing economic competition, technological fragmentation, and mounting security challenges. From supply chain vulnerabilities to shifting alliances and rising geopolitical tensions, these developments are testing the resilience of existing frameworks for international cooperation
8
Apr
Briefing online ECFR su priorità G7. Politiche di innovazione, sicurezza economica, diplomazia economica ed intelligenza artificiale
Quest’anno lo European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) e l’Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) co-presiedono il Think7 (T7), il gruppo di consultazione ufficiale del G7 per i think tank e i centri di ricerca a livello mondiale, con l’obiettivo di elaborare nuove proposte politiche per i paesi del G7. In questo contesto, ECFR ha preparato 4 solution…
European Power
Europe’s climate crossroads: Power, competitiveness and the new global order
A growing transatlantic narrative claims that climate action is a gift to China and pressure is mounting on European policymakers to delay and water down the continent’s energy transition to safeguard its competitiveness. Yet such a dilemma between fighting climate change and remaining competitive is largely fallacious: the energy transition is already reshaping the global balance of…
European Power
Beijing hold’em 2.0: European cards against Chinese coercion
The escalation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz underscores a defining feature of today’s global order: volatility, fragmentation, and great power competition. Europe is entering a world of hard leverage—where fossil fuel dependence translates into strategic vulnerability. At the same time, as confidence in the United States becomes fragile,…
European Power
Soberanía tecnológica europea: valores humanos y retos geopolíticos
Un diálogo del European Council on Foreign Relations y Aspen Institute España. Los ponentes abordaron la tensión existente entre la simplificación normativa y la desregulación, la capacidad de la Unión Europea para exportar sus estándares regulatorios más allá de sus fronteras, los instrumentos jurídicos y estratégicos disponibles para hacer frente al poder…
25
Feb
European Power
Tech Summit, 5th Edition: Europe and the Tech Oligarchs, Reclaiming Democracy and Sovereignty in the Digital Age
This year, the initiative focused on Europe’s response to the challenges posed by the now well-established rise of a new class of tech oligarchs, increasingly capable of influencing the political and institutional dynamics of our democracies. Against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the growing interdependence between political and…
In the media
Agathe Demarais on how EU should act in order to avoid becoming a middle power