Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO

Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising doubts about his commitment to Europe’s security and Europeans displaying diverging perceptions of the Russian threat, there is no clear path towards a strategically coherent and operationally capable “European-led NATO” that can deter and, if necessary, defeat Russian aggression with minimal (or no) US support. Yet, in almost four years of fighting, Russia has suffered one million casualties and not come any closer to denying Ukraine its sovereign future than on day one of the war. Moreover, Russia is facing severe economic and fiscal challenges of its own. Taking the war to NATO might then be too risky a step for Russia’s leaders to take.

How should we evaluate Russia’s intent and capabilities to move against NATO, if an opportunity presented itself? What might such an opportunity look like? How should allies respond to Russian provocations short of a military attack without triggering unintended escalation? What should a “European-led NATO” look like to be capable and effective?

The debate is being organized as part of ECFR’s Re:Order project. The Re:Order project is funded by Stiftung Mercator.