Preventing the next war: A European plan for Ukraine
Together with the Ukrainians, Europeans should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or even a peace deal
Experts & Staff
Nicu Popescu
Distinguished Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
European security and defence policies, wartime economy, EU enlargement policy, security developments in Eastern Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, South Caucasus.
Languages
English, Russian, French, Romanian
Biography
Nicu Popescu is a distinguished policy fellow of the European Power programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in the Paris office. His areas of focus include how the EU should adapt itself and its policies in light of the war in Ukraine, including the development of a ‘war economy’, as well as EU enlargement to the east and Europe’s relations with Russia.
Popescu served as Moldova’s deputy prime-minister and minister for foreign affairs and European integration between August 2021 and January 2024, and foreign minister between June and November 2019. In his second mandate, he managed the country’s foreign policy in the extremely tense regional environment shaped by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Under the leadership of President Maia Sandu, he steered efforts to build wide-ranging international support for Moldova’s aims to maintain peace and stability. He helped mobilise international attention to Moldova and concrete support for the country’s efforts to overcome the negative consequences of the war in the security, humanitarian, energy, and economic spheres.
As deputy prime minister, he was lead coordinator of the EU accession process. Under his mandate, Moldova applied for EU membership, obtained EU candidate status (2022), and the European Council approved the start of its EU accession talks (2023). In this period Moldova had been widely applauded for its reform record, having most successfully implemented the EU acquis among all candidate countries (2023).
Popescu previously worked as director of the Wider Europe programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations (2011-2012, 2018-2019, and 2020-2021), senior analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies in Paris (2013-2018), senior advisor on foreign policy and EU affairs for the prime-minister of Moldova (2010, and 2012-2013), and research fellow at ECFR in London (2007-2009) and at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels (2005-2007).
Popescu has been associate professor at Sciences Po Paris since 2016. He also taught at the University of Barcelona (IELPO). He holds a PhD in International Relations from the Central European University in Budapest, Hungary. He has authored and co-edited several books and
over 60 policy papers, book chapters and academic articles, including authoring EU foreign policy and post-Soviet conflicts: stealth intervention (Routledge 2010), and co-editing Russia Rising: Putin’s Foreign Policy in the Middle East and North Africa (with Dimitar Bechev and Stanislav Secrieru, I.B. Tauris 2021) and Democratization in EU Foreign Policy (with Benedetta Berti and Kristina Mikulova, Routledge 2015).
He has been decorated by Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, with Moldova’s highest order – The Order of the Republic. He is a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations. He has been decorated by Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, with Moldova’s highest order, the Order of the Republic; and is an Officer of the Legion of Honour of France, as decreed by President Emmanuel Macron.
The long game: How Europeans can shape the outcome of Ukraine-Russia talks
The second meeting between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul has shown that a settlement is a distant prospect. To strengthen Ukraine’s hand in future talks, Europeans have a three-fold task
Mobilising Europe: The case for a European Preparedness Act
Mark Leonard welcomes Tiago Antunes and Nicu Popescu to discuss the proposal for a European Preparedness Act in the face of global geopolitical upheaval
Strength in members: How to rally EU enlargement for defence
The EU’s accession process ignores defence while NATO cannot cover all the candidates. Tailored defence cooperation roadmaps offer a promising path to protect Europe’s periphery without NATO membership
Why Russia’s actions pose a threat well beyond its neighbours
Europeans might be focused on deterring Russia’s military might—but they also need to consider the danger of its political gamble
The four pillars of European defence
For too long, Europeans have neglected their defence infrastructure. With the threat of Russia looming, policymakers should consider four ways to present a strong, unified front
ECFR’s Emergency Room: What America’s aid pause means for Ukraine and Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, an ECFR distinguished policy fellow leading our work on the European security initiative, to discuss America’s decision to pause aid shipments to Ukraine—and how European countries are trying to turn this around
Forging peace: Europe’s role in Ukraine’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu to discuss European security guarantees for Ukraine and the path to sustainable peace
Better firefighting: Readying Europe for an age between war and peace
Facing wars and crises, the EU can no longer rely on slow peacetime processes. It needs a plan for faster industrial and infrastructural adaptation
Russia’s playbook in Georgia and Moldova
Mark Leonard welcomes Tefta Kelmendi and Nicu Popescu to discuss what the EU can learn from the recent elections in Georgia and Moldova
Publications
Preventing the next war: A European plan for Ukraine
Together with the Ukrainians, Europeans should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or even a peace deal
Strength in members: How to rally EU enlargement for defence
The EU’s accession process ignores defence while NATO cannot cover all the candidates. Tailored defence cooperation roadmaps offer a promising path to protect Europe’s periphery without NATO membership
Better firefighting: Readying Europe for an age between war and peace
Facing wars and crises, the EU can no longer rely on slow peacetime processes. It needs a plan for faster industrial and infrastructural adaptation
Push back, contain, and engage: How the EU should approach relations with Russia
The bloc should reframe how it speaks of human rights and democracy, while developing closer security and military links with select neighbours
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
The best defence: Why the EU should forge security compacts with its eastern neighbours
If the EU is to be more geopolitically influential in its own neighbourhood, it needs to start developing strategic security partnerships with key neighbours to the east and the south
Defender of the faith? How Ukraine’s Orthodox split threatens Russia
Introduction An average Westerner may well have overlooked the potentially seismic geopolitical event of 6 January 2019. On that snowy Sunday – Epiphany in western…
Transnistria: A bottom-up solution
How to defrost Moldova’s frozen conflict
Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia
Learning to deal with a changing Russia under a familiar leader
A Chance to Reform: How the EU can support democratic evolution in Morocco
Helping Moroccan democracy through evolution not revolution
Articles
The long game: How Europeans can shape the outcome of Ukraine-Russia talks
The second meeting between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul has shown that a settlement is a distant prospect. To strengthen Ukraine’s hand in future talks, Europeans have a three-fold task
Why Russia’s actions pose a threat well beyond its neighbours
Europeans might be focused on deterring Russia’s military might—but they also need to consider the danger of its political gamble
The four pillars of European defence
For too long, Europeans have neglected their defence infrastructure. With the threat of Russia looming, policymakers should consider four ways to present a strong, unified front
The emergency lane: How the EU can speed up its crisis responses
In times of crisis the EU can no longer rely on its standard, slow procedures. A European Defence Production Act could transform its ability to deal with shocks
Need for speed: The case for a European defence production act
The EU’s red tape is preventing it from responding quickly enough to major crises. An EU defence production act could help
A digital agenda for the Eastern Partnership
By reforming the Eastern Partnership, the EU can capitalise on the huge opportunities for economic and social development created by digitalisation
Vaccine passports: How the EU can win the next round of covid diplomacy
A new EUROVAX scheme should be at the heart of the EU’s new offer to help its neighbours tackle covid-19 in the years ahead
Why the EU should stop waiting for the Godot of Russian decline
Many in Europe think Russia is in decline, but basing EU policy on such deterministic thinking is a mistake. The EU should deal with Russia of today, not with that of 2050 or 2070
Why attempts to reset relations with Russia fail
Offering ‘resets’ to Russia does not work. On the contrary, a more muscular approach to the country will yield results
The geopolitics of covid vaccines in Europe’s eastern neighbourhood
Many of the EU’s neighbours are hoping it will help them secure vaccines – leaving offers from China and Russia to flood in
Podcasts
Mobilising Europe: The case for a European Preparedness Act
Mark Leonard welcomes Tiago Antunes and Nicu Popescu to discuss the proposal for a European Preparedness Act in the face of global geopolitical upheaval
ECFR’s Emergency Room: What America’s aid pause means for Ukraine and Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, an ECFR distinguished policy fellow leading our work on the European security initiative, to discuss America’s decision to pause aid shipments to Ukraine—and how European countries are trying to turn this around
Forging peace: Europe’s role in Ukraine’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu to discuss European security guarantees for Ukraine and the path to sustainable peace
Russia’s playbook in Georgia and Moldova
Mark Leonard welcomes Tefta Kelmendi and Nicu Popescu to discuss what the EU can learn from the recent elections in Georgia and Moldova
Russia, Ukraine, and Europe’s war economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova and Nicu Popescu to discuss Russia, Ukraine, and the EU’s changing response to the conflict
Towards stability: A new concert of powers
Could a “concert of powers” be the solution for the increasing power competition between the US and China and the current crisis of democracy?
Belarus’s brutal politics
What kind of implications do the developments in Belarus have for the wider neighbourhood and Europe?
Stranger in Moscow: Borrell’s unwelcome visit
What lessons can be drawn from Josep Borrell’s controversial visit to Moscow?
Europe’s new transatlantic bargain for Biden’s America
When Biden enters the White House, he will look for a Europe that brings solutions rather than problems. Europeans should show they can be an equal partner & offer him a new transatlantic bargain
Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia and Azerbaijan’s thawing of the ‘frozen conflict’
The contested Nagorno-Karabakh region is at the heart of a decades-long armed standoff between neighbours Armenia and Azerbaijan. The…
Events
11 Jun
What to expect from the Putin-Biden summit?
What, if anything, can one say about the longer-term perspectives for the US-Russia relationship?
12 May
An ambitious Eastern Partnership policy for a strong Europe
What policy changes do the EU and its member states need to envisage if the EU is to act more geopolitically and increase its influence in the Eastern neighbourhood?
27 Jan
The EU and Belarus in 2021
How is Europe planning to keep Belarus on the agenda and will it provide more political support for Belarusian civil society?
23 Nov
Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh: winners, losers, and a new status quo in the Caucasus
The relatively short-lived flare-up between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has ended in early November with a ceasefire brokered by Russia
In the media
With the war in Ukraine, these attacks have increased and become more audacious
Nicu Popescu analyzes the rise of hybrid attacks in Europe linked to the war in Ukraine
The real threat is not solely military, but political, and has the potential to tear apart the institutional fabric that has kept the EU prosperous, secure, and integrated
Nicu Popescu reflects on the threat Russia poses to the political cohesion of the European Union
The EU must become a serious military power, capable of standing on its own. The White Paper on Defence is a crucial step in this direction
Nicu Popescu on strategic security and on the EU White Paper on defence
Nicu Popescu on the possibility of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine
In his op-ed, Nicu Popescu argues why Europe needs a Defense Production Act