Europeans have leverage in the face of Trump’s threats towards Greenland

Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation, write various authors of the pan-European think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in a commentary titled “Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards” in Greenland published today.

They propose ten measures that are meant to raise the political, economic and alliance costs of unilateral action so early and so visibly that Trump’s administration thinks twice. They urge European policymakers to act quickly to demonstrate that Europeans are serious about Arctic security and ready to impose heavy costs on any illegal attempts to annex the territory or profit from such an event.

The ten-point plan outlines a series of measures that Europeans can immediately adopt to show their mettle without compromising their engagement with Washington on Ukraine or other important matters of security.

1. Build a European Arctic coalition: Replicate the Ukraine contact group for the Arctic: a standing coalition of willing European states coordinating security, investment, and political signalling.
2. Europeanise security presence in Greenland: A continuous European presence—framed as Arctic infrastructure protection, climate monitoring, and search-and-rescue—would fundamentally change the context.
3. Anchor Denmark & Greenland politically, not just legally: Europe must treat Denmark as a front-line state, not just a legal stakeholder.
4. Pre-commit to sanctions on occupation profiteers: Prepare—and leak—a sanctions regime targeting anyone profiting from a US occupation in Greenland. Deterrence works best when it’s credible and early.
5. Signal conditionality on Arctic cooperation: Europe should make it clear that Arctic governance, scientific cooperation, and infrastructure access require respect for sovereignty.
6. Use NATO ambiguity strategically: European leaders should neither invoke nor renounce NATO automatically.
7. Flood Greenland with European investment: From energy and data centres to infrastructure, mining, research, and climate projects— Europe should capitalise on existing agreements and structures to deepen economic links.
8. Talk to Americans: Europe should speak to Americans, not just to their government: Quiet engagement with Congress, provoking discussions about the limits of blunt assertions of power as well as engagement with factions within the administration.
9. Treat this as a rehearsal, not an exception: European leaders should say the quiet part out loud: if the US can steal Greenland today, it can coerce others in all manner of ways tomorrow.
10. Normalise contingency planning: There is a limit to how much Europeans can prepare for an event that would divide their continent over how to respond, but contingency planning is possible.

The European cards meet legitimate US interests in Greenland while making clear that there will be enormous cost and complexity from trying to annex the island under Trump. And by acting fast, Europeans can outflank the US administration, the authors conclude.

Authors of the article are Jim O’Brien, Jana Kobzova, Mark Leonard, Jana Puglierin, Jeremy Shapiro, Vessela Tcherneva, and Katrine Westgaard.

Read the full article here.