European solidarity and the Russia-Ukraine war
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
Wider Europe
All-out support: The West’s commitments to Ukraine
Ukraine’s Western partners now recognise that it can defeat Russia. Yet they need to provide the guarantees of long-term support that will make this a reality.
Turkey, NATO, and the Ukraine war: Why Erdogan’s grievances are about more than Sweden and Finland
The Turkish president is unlikely to veto Nordic membership of NATO – but Turkey’s bigger strategic worry is of a NATO-Russia conflict arising out of the war in Ukraine
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West.
Ukraine, Europe, and the power of association: A new way to help aspiring EU states
A new compact could allow Ukraine, Balkans states and others to move closer to the EU and drive reform more powerfully than the current rigid rules
Inside the Russian geopolitical mind: Pseudo-justifications behind the war in Ukraine
Russia sees two types of sovereignty in its civilisational space. Full Westphalian sovereignty – which it believes it has and Ukraine does not. This means that defending Ukraine means defending its sovereignty in full.
Moldova next? How Europe should react to Russia’s implicit threat
Europeans should urgently increase Frontex assistance to Moldova, enhance intelligence cooperation, and consider positioning NATO units based in Romania closer to the country’s border
17 May
It’s complicated: The Russia-China Axis
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
The exaggerated death of European sovereignty
The US may have dominated Western efforts to defend Ukraine, but future American leaders will expect Europeans to take up most of the burden of dealing with Russia
Why advanced weapons can help Ukraine defeat Russia
Russia’s new offensive in Ukraine calls for a change in the Western response. NATO countries should supply the Ukrainian military with advanced systems and the training to use them.
Publications
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West.
Acts of normality: The potential for Turkey-Armenia rapprochement
After decades of tension, Turkey and Armenia now feel it is in their interest to normalise their relationship – not least to promote trade and to balance against Russian influence
Let a thousand contacts bloom: How China competes for influence in Bulgaria
China is expanding its presence in Bulgaria through a strategy of engagement with state and non-state actors. This has concerning implications in areas such as technology transfer, critical infrastructure, and public procurement.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
It’s complicated: Russia’s tricky relationship with China
The West does not have an opportunity to prompt a policy U-turn in Moscow that divides Russia and China. But it could give Russia space to hedge against China in key areas
The secret battlefield: How the EU can help Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine protect against Russian subversion
The EU should offer Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine a new intelligence and security compact to help strengthen their security against Russia
The young and the restless: Europe, Russia, and the next generation of diplomats in the Eastern Partnership
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor.
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Faltering fightback: Zelensky’s piecemeal campaign against Ukraine’s oligarchs
The campaign has encouraged Zelensky’s tendency towards governance through informal means. This has allowed him to act speedily – but it risks letting oligarchic influence return
Articles
All-out support: The West’s commitments to Ukraine
Ukraine’s Western partners now recognise that it can defeat Russia. Yet they need to provide the guarantees of long-term support that will make this a reality.
Turkey, NATO, and the Ukraine war: Why Erdogan’s grievances are about more than Sweden and Finland
The Turkish president is unlikely to veto Nordic membership of NATO – but Turkey’s bigger strategic worry is of a NATO-Russia conflict arising out of the war in Ukraine
Ukraine, Europe, and the power of association: A new way to help aspiring EU states
A new compact could allow Ukraine, Balkans states and others to move closer to the EU and drive reform more powerfully than the current rigid rules
Inside the Russian geopolitical mind: Pseudo-justifications behind the war in Ukraine
Russia sees two types of sovereignty in its civilisational space. Full Westphalian sovereignty – which it believes it has and Ukraine does not. This means that defending Ukraine means defending its sovereignty in full.
Moldova next? How Europe should react to Russia’s implicit threat
Europeans should urgently increase Frontex assistance to Moldova, enhance intelligence cooperation, and consider positioning NATO units based in Romania closer to the country’s border
The exaggerated death of European sovereignty
The US may have dominated Western efforts to defend Ukraine, but future American leaders will expect Europeans to take up most of the burden of dealing with Russia
Why advanced weapons can help Ukraine defeat Russia
Russia’s new offensive in Ukraine calls for a change in the Western response. NATO countries should supply the Ukrainian military with advanced systems and the training to use them.
Ukraine: Time for the West to prepare for the long war
Russia is drawing on its Syria playbook and regrouping for a long war to seize the whole of Ukraine. The West needs to take action now to supply Ukraine with Western equipment.
Cold reality: How Europe is adjusting to China’s support for Putin
To address the systemic challenge China poses, the EU will also need to address the fallout in the global south of Russia’s war on Ukraine
Laws against slaughter: The crimes that shape Russia’s war on Ukraine
Widespread violations of international humanitarian law appear to be part of the Russian way of war. The international response to such crimes could have severe geopolitical consequences for Russia.
Specials
Mapping China’s rise in the Western Balkans
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas.
Russia in the grey zones
What role does Russia play in the breakaway regions of Eastern Europe?
Life in the grey zones: Reports from Europe’s breakaway regions
Locked in a shadowy life between war and peace, “grey zones” now litter the map of Eastern Europe
Minsk Monitor
Following high level ministerial meetings on Ukraine, ECFR's Wider Europe team report on the implementation the Minsk agreement
Podcasts
European solidarity and the Russia-Ukraine war
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
Ukrainian identity and Russian strategy
What concepts define Ukrainian history and identity, and how is this important in understanding Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion?
War in Ukraine: a stale-mate for the West and NATO’s future?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
How Putin’s war is shaping France’s election
What kind of role did foreign policy play in the election campaigns before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what role is it playing now?
Sino-Russian relations after the Kremlin’s attack on Ukraine
How is Russia’s attack on Ukraine perceived in China? Will Russia and China be joining forces in an ‘alliance of autocracies’? What does Russian and Chinese policymakers planning look like now – and what should Europeans do?
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
Will Western unity on Russia hold? Reporting from Munich Security Conference
Live from the Munich Security Conference (MSC)!
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro discuss our latest polling results on the Ukraine crisis and how European policymakers might adjust their policies to reflect the public mood it reveals
Europe’s role in tackling the Russia-Ukraine crisis
What are European and American interests in the Russia-Ukraine crisis? What are possible ways to avert a calamity?
Events
17 May
It’s complicated: The Russia-China Axis
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
14 Apr
Представяне на доклад – Да разцъфтят хиляди контакти: Как Китай се съревновава за влияние в България
Софийският офис на Европейския съвет за външна политика има удоволствието да Ви покани на представянето на новия доклад на Владимир Шопов, „Да разцъфтят хиляди…
11 Apr
Crisi energetica. La Geopolitica del Green Deal. Sovranità energetica europea, conflitto in Ucraina e competizione tra Grandi Potenze
Il conflitto in Ucraina ha confermato l’urgenza di un’azione congiunta europea su energia e clima
6 Apr
Invasione russa dell’Ucraina: Ruolo dell’UE nel contesto regionale e globale
Gli europei richiedono maggiore cooperazione a lungo termine su diversi dossier, in particolare in materia di sicurezza e difesa
30 Mar
Europe and the refugee crisis: what needs to be done
What instruments does the EU have at its disposal to address the challenges related to the crisis? And what are the lessons learned from the refugee crisis in 2015?
23 Mar
The role of outside powers in Ukraine
Do any outside powers have any chance of bringing Russia and Ukraine closer to peace?
11 Mar
No longer only deeply concerned: Europe’s military response to the Russian war and what next
Ahead of the EU summit, French and Polish experts will discuss the European security situation as the war in Ukraine unfolds. They will analyse the current developments, EU’s role in the conflict and challenges for the EU security and defence in the upcoming months.
3 Mar
Zeitenwende: Germany as a pioneer in foreign and security policy?
A webinar on Germany’s change of course in defence spending amid the ongoing war in Ukraine
21 Feb
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
1 Feb
European security order on the brink: The Russia crisis and what next
West do prevent an aggression against Ukraine? What does Kyiv expect from the EU and NATO? What is the future of the European security order? What are the perspectives of the key EU member states and Ukraine?
In the media
That’s what makes new technology potentially revolutionary, not just having it in the field but how you use it
The mix of old and new technologies is what has aided Ukraine in fending off Russia for so long, argues Ulrike Franke
Asli Aydintasbas’ latest commentary features in an analysis of Turkey’s wariness towards the nordic NATO bid
It is easy to maneuver,
Gustav Gressel explores the terrain Russia is entering in its reconfigured attack on Ukraine
Scholz has given the impression that the objective regarding Ukraine is not so much that Ukraine wins, but that Russia should not win
Rafael Loss dissects the overarching German perspective that has settled after nearly three months of war in Ukraine
he fact that Russia is not doing any major damage for the time being does not mean that it is cooperative
