Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia

On 6 August, Ukraine’s army launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Since then, Ukrainian troops have seized control of 1,150 square kilometres of Russian territory.

This audacious move came at a moment when the main narrative in Western political, military, and expert circles was that Ukraine was gradually losing the war. There was no movement from Ukraine’s allies on decisions that could contribute to a more positive outlook – for instance, allowing the use of Western weapons to strike deep in Russian territory. This reticence stemmed from fears of escalation, with some Western partners preferring not to challenge Vladimir Putin’s ‘red lines’ even if it put Ukraine at a disadvantage.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesman, Heorhiy Tykhy, has said the aim of the incursion is to press Putin to restore a “just peace”. But the operation has also already delivered strategic and tactical gains for Ukraine – and should help put some Western fears of escalation to bed.

The story so far

Ukraine seized the initiative with this surprise manoeuvre and shattered the battlefield stalemate. In mere days, Ukrainian forces have captured more territory than Russia had in months. This laid bare Russia’s vulnerability and (yet again) made Putin’s red lines look like a bluff. A direct attack on a Russian territory has not provoked a nuclear response or significant escalation. Russia’s leadership has instead largely sought to downplay the incursion, declaring a counter-terrorist operation in a few regions but not imposing martial law. Still, war has visibly arrived on Russian soil – undermining Putin’s promises to his people and potentially weakening his legitimacy.

The incursion has also already borne tactical fruit. Earlier this year, the Russian success in opening a new front in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region began with a military build-up across the nearby border. The threat to Ukraine’s Sumy region from the similar build-up in Kursk suggests Ukraine stands to gain from the principle that the best defence is a strong offense. The incursion has also diverted Russian troops from other fronts in Ukraine, including the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. This redeployment is likely to persist, as Russia will be compelled not only to defend its own territory but also to allocate additional manpower to safeguard its borders. Moreover, Ukrainian sources say that they have captured several hundred prisoners. This enhances Ukraine’s ability to secure further prisoner exchanges and the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

A new chapter

The Russian army has made some gains in eastern Ukraine over the past few months and still holds the initiative. But Ukraine seized the initiative itself on the Black Sea last summer – when Russia was forced to redeploy its navy to locations outside Crimea – and has now done so again in the Kursk region. This shows that Ukrainian leaders and forces are creative enough to wage effective asymmetric warfare against a much larger foe. Indeed, the incursion exposes significant weaknesses in the Russian defence, undermining Putin’s assertions that Russia is “unbeatable”. This should all help change the West’s narrative on the war – and its policy on the provision and use of weapons for deep strikes in Russia.