Hamas has agreed to disarm. Israel should now agree to peace
Despite all odds, there is now a realistic path towards ending the war in Gaza. Its success now depends on Israel. Europe could help tip the balance
Middle East and North Africa
Alone at the border: Ceuta and Europe’s solidarity failure
By failing to show solidarity with a member state under pressure, the EU is encouraging Morocco and others to keep using migration as a tool of coercion
The Saudi dilemma: How Yemen could shape the next phase of the Iran war
As the Houthis attack Saudi ships and infrastructure, Riyadh faces an increasingly difficult choice: absorb the blows to stay out of the Iran war or retaliate and risk a dangerous escalation
Down and out from Rabat to Cairo: The Iran war and North African instability
The war between the US and Iran is destabilising North African economies, putting an already fragile region at the very edge of polycrisis
Europeans don’t need consensus to challenge Israel and its settlements
Israel is accelerating its settler project and deepening conflict, frustrating many EU member states. The bloc should use its trade and financial tools to impose costs and secure a future for Palestinians
Rescuing the Gaza ceasefire: What to do with Hamas’s weapons
A Northern Ireland-style approach to decommissioning could help unblock the path to peace in Gaza
Bypassing the straits: The India-Middle East-Europe corridor needs a wartime redesign
The Iran war has exposed the limits of an economic corridor built for peacetime. Europeans should rethink the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor for a region where trade routes are now strategic targets
The postwar UAE and the remaking of Gulf politics
Iran’s attacks on the Gulf have convinced Abu Dhabi that accommodation with Tehran has failed. Leaving OPEC reflects the UAE’s turn towards strategic autonomy, harder security alliances and a regional order less constrained by old consensuses
Netanyahu’s unfinished wars: How Europe can stop the next round
Netanyahu promised Israelis a “new Middle East”; Trump imposed ceasefires instead. Now, the Israeli PM’s reliance on Washington gives Europeans and Arab partners an opportunity to preserve the fragile peace and stabilise Lebanon
Making peace last: Steps for Europeans to support the Iran-US ceasefire
After threatening catastrophic escalation, Trump has agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Iran. Europeans need to use this moment to urgently push for a more lasting peace
Publications
The full monty: Why the Mediterranean pact needs to offer the works
Europe’s energy, industrial and migration interests all converge in its southern neighbourhood, where rivals are eroding its influence. The new Pact for the Mediterranean can reverse this, but only if Brussels puts grand bargains on the table
EV endgame: Stalling China’s export surge in Europe’s southern neighbourhood
Chinese electric vehicle brands are adapting to Western trade barriers by increasing their presence in the Middle East and North Africa. Europe’s response must go beyond merely closing the loopholes
Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics
Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate governance and keep Palestinian self-determination alive
Power sharing: The politics of European-Tunisian energy cooperation
The ethos of the EU’s “Pact for the Mediterranean” could help revitalise cooperation on clean energy with Tunisia—but only if Europeans learn how to better factor in the country’s politics
The power of the possible: A step-by-step approach to strengthen human rights in the Middle East
European credibility to uphold human rights in the Middle East has faded, but the EU can still have an impact by backing social and economic rights, empowering people through reform
The turtle and the pilot fish: How the EU and Italy can help each other in the Mediterranean
Italy and the EU must work more closely together in the “Wider Mediterranean” on energy, migration and security. Here’s how they can do it
Unearthing the past: Iraq’s mass graves and the quest for justice
A European-backed UN body explored mass graves in Iraq between 2018 and 2024, supporting steps towards justice and reconciliation—and providing wider lessons for the region
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
The bear who came to tea: Russia, Libya and the Kremlin’s playbook for fragile states
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
Dealing with Trump, Israel, and Hamas: The path to peace in the Middle East
With a two-state solution at risk, Europeans must work closely with Arab states to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to an end
Articles
Hamas has agreed to disarm. Israel should now agree to peace
Despite all odds, there is now a realistic path towards ending the war in Gaza. Its success now depends on Israel. Europe could help tip the balance
Alone at the border: Ceuta and Europe’s solidarity failure
By failing to show solidarity with a member state under pressure, the EU is encouraging Morocco and others to keep using migration as a tool of coercion
The Saudi dilemma: How Yemen could shape the next phase of the Iran war
As the Houthis attack Saudi ships and infrastructure, Riyadh faces an increasingly difficult choice: absorb the blows to stay out of the Iran war or retaliate and risk a dangerous escalation
Down and out from Rabat to Cairo: The Iran war and North African instability
The war between the US and Iran is destabilising North African economies, putting an already fragile region at the very edge of polycrisis
Europeans don’t need consensus to challenge Israel and its settlements
Israel is accelerating its settler project and deepening conflict, frustrating many EU member states. The bloc should use its trade and financial tools to impose costs and secure a future for Palestinians
Rescuing the Gaza ceasefire: What to do with Hamas’s weapons
A Northern Ireland-style approach to decommissioning could help unblock the path to peace in Gaza
Bypassing the straits: The India-Middle East-Europe corridor needs a wartime redesign
The Iran war has exposed the limits of an economic corridor built for peacetime. Europeans should rethink the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor for a region where trade routes are now strategic targets
The postwar UAE and the remaking of Gulf politics
Iran’s attacks on the Gulf have convinced Abu Dhabi that accommodation with Tehran has failed. Leaving OPEC reflects the UAE’s turn towards strategic autonomy, harder security alliances and a regional order less constrained by old consensuses
Netanyahu’s unfinished wars: How Europe can stop the next round
Netanyahu promised Israelis a “new Middle East”; Trump imposed ceasefires instead. Now, the Israeli PM’s reliance on Washington gives Europeans and Arab partners an opportunity to preserve the fragile peace and stabilise Lebanon
Making peace last: Steps for Europeans to support the Iran-US ceasefire
After threatening catastrophic escalation, Trump has agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Iran. Europeans need to use this moment to urgently push for a more lasting peace
Specials
Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month
America and Israel have bombed Iran since 2025 to block Tehran’s path to nuclear weapons. ECFR’s interactive dashboard, updated monthly, assesses current evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities to determine which of six possible scenarios is most likely
Anatomy of a chokepoint: Mapping power and conflict in the Red Sea
This ECFR project maps the Red Sea region as a nexus of conflict, regional rivalries and global power plays. To address the risks of this instability, Europeans need to develop a more comprehensive approach
The Gaza crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
Women of Middle East network for peacebuilding
The conversation around achieving peace and prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa needs to become more inclusive and diverse, through an injection of fresh ideas and perspectives from regional voices
Part of the problem: A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
European states face accusations of neglecting the matter of human rights in their southern neighbourhood, and even of being complicit. Yet they are failing to maximise the influence they could bring to bear
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
Differentiation Tracker
ECFR’s Differentiation Tracker provides a snapshot of third state relations with Israel – and the extent to which these contain a clearly defined territorial definition that explicitly excludes Israeli settlements constructed on occupied territory in line with UNSCR 2334
Mapping armed groups in Mali and the Sahel
Violence is tearing Mali and the Sahel apart. But who are the armed groups behind the bloodshed? Where are international actors stationed in the region? And what motivates them all?
Podcasts
Can a ceasefire survive Israel’s election?
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt to discuss the prospects for a Gaza ceasefire, escalating settler violence in the West Bank and how Israel’s upcoming general election could shape the future of the conflict
Lebanon: On the brink of war or peace?
Ellie Geranmayeh is joined by Alia Moubayed, Randa Slim and Maha Yahya to discuss what the trilateral framework deal signed by Israel, the US and Lebanon means for the Lebanese stability
Peace in the Middle East
Julien Barnes-Dacey welcomes Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud to discuss how the recently inked US-Iran deal could deliver a more stable regional order
Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month
Mark Leonard, Kelsey Davenport and Ellie Geranmayeh introduce ECFR’s Iran nuclear monitor, and discuss the key risks and scenarios associated with Iran’s current nuclear capacity
Ceasefire in Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş to explore the recent Iran-US ceasefire, regional conflicts, and implications for Europe and global security
What the Iran war means for Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Kobzova to discuss how the war in Iran is affecting Ukraine, from US support to shifting European unity
Europe, Trump and the war in Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran
War in the Middle East
Mark Leonard welcomes Aziz Alghashian, Eran Etzion and Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the implications of a prolonged war in the Middle East and possible ceasefire scenarios
Trump strikes Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
Yemen: Between Gulf tensions and Iran war clouds
Cinzia Bianco welcomes Yasmeen Al-Eryani and Maysaa Shuja al-Deen to unpack the recent developments around Yemen and what they mean for Europe
Events
2
Jul
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Hormuz, energia e connettività: la doppia sfida per l’Europa
La chiusura dello Stretto di Hormuz ha posto l’Europa di fronte a una doppia sfida: ripensare la transizione energetica in un contesto di forte incertezza sugli idrocarburi e sviluppare nuove rotte di connettività per ridurre la vulnerabilità a shock geopolitici. Tra i temi al centro del confronto: l’elettrificazione come pilastro necessario ma non sufficiente,…
11
Jun
Middle East and North Africa
ECFR Scenario Game: Which MENA Region in 2030?
L’Ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in cooperazione con il Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale, ha organizzato lo scenario game “Which MENA Region in 2030?” a Roma l’11 giugno 2026, presso gli Uffici del MAECI. L’evento ha proposto due esercizi di scenario ambientati al 2030,…
8
Jun
European Power
Iran Nuclear Monitor – Media Briefing en Madrid
La oficina de Madrid de ECFR reunió a periodistas especializados en un media briefing con Ellie Geranmayeh sobre el programa nuclear iraní y el panel interactivo «Iran Nuclear Monitor: Month by Month»
3
Dec
Middle East and North Africa
Tra Bruxelles e Roma: una nuova strategia per il Mediterraneo
La Commissione europea ha recentemente presentato il nuovo Patto per il Mediterraneo, con l’obiettivo di rilanciare la cooperazione politica, economica e di sicurezza con i Paesi partner del Mediterraneo meridionale, e ha rinnovato il suo impegno nella promozione di partenariati strategici in geografie chiave attraverso il Global Gateway. Parallelamente, negli ultimi mesi l’Italia ha intensificato…
5
Jun
Africa
Shifting Powers: the evolving US-China presence amid the growing role of Russia in Africa
As Africa becomes an increasingly central arena for Russia’s interests, the role of the United States and China is undergoing significant transformation. With Trump’s return to the White House, a broader US economic-military repositioning in Africa to contain external influences seems to occur, while Beijing continues to deepen its structural economic presence across the…
5
Jun
European Power
Rome Foreign Policy Club 2025 – Come Undone: Europa e Italia tra frammentazione globale e vulnerabilità del vicinato
Nella sua edizione 2025, la quarta da quando il progetto è stato lanciato, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani think tanker italiani under-40 per elaborare ipotesi di scenario rilevanti per la politica estera e multilaterale italiana ed europea. Tale esercizio si pone come obiettivo la formulazione di raccomandazioni a supporto delle attività di…
10
Dec
Africa
Il Circolo dell’ECFR: L’asse Emirati Arabi Uniti-Africa: orientarsi nel nuovo scenario multipolare
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR è l ruolo degli Emirati Arabi Uniti in Africa. Mentre i leader europei riflettono sul futuro strategico dell’Unione Europea in un contesto di crescenti tensioni geopolitiche, un gruppo influente di potenze medie, che include paesi come India, Turchia e le monarchie del Golfo, sta assumendo…
2
Oct
Africa
LA RUSSIA OLTRE IL MEDITERRANEO – La presenza di Mosca in Africa e le implicazioni per gli interessi europei
Negli ultimi anni, la presenza della Russia in Africa è cresciuta significativamente, sia nel Nord Africa che nell’Africa Subsahariana, presentando una sfida strategica per l’Europa e, in particolare, per l’Italia. Mosca ha rafforzato la sua presenza nel continente attraverso una serie di accordi bilaterali, cooperazioni militari, e investimenti economici e nel settore energetico. Questo incremento di influenza è stato percepito come una mossa strategica per aumentare il suo peso globale e per contrastare l’influenza occidentale
23
Jul
Middle East and North Africa
ECFR Discussion with HR/VP Josep Borrell: How can the EU support a sustained ceasefire in Gaza and a renewed Israeli-Palestinian political track?
Josep Borrell Fontelles is the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission. He was President of the European Parliament from 2004-2007 and Spain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation from 2018-2019. Abraham “Avrum” Burg is a former Knesset Speaker, author, peace activist and…
Africa
UAE-Africa nexus: Navigating a new multipolar landscape
As European leaders navigate the EU’s strategic future amid rising geopolitical tensions, a critical mass of middle powers, from India and Turkey to the Gulf monarchies, is increasingly affecting Europe’s engagement across Africa. The United Arab Emirates has emerged as an exceptionally active player in Africa over the last few years, focusing particularly…
