Once fierce advocates of military action against Tehran, Gulf countries now call for restraint and diplomacy. No longer viewing Trump as a partner; they now fear the US may be more liability than protection
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran could have serious implications across the Middle East, not least by exacerbating ongoing tensions between Turkey and Israel. Europeans need to reassure Ankara that they are focused on regional stability—and take Turkey’s defence concerns seriously
ECFR Council members urge European governments to pull every available lever to prevent escalation in the Middle East
Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser, threatening key European interests. Europe must avoid making the same mistakes that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion, prioritise diplomacy and urge the US not to get entangled in a war with Iran
As Europeans focus on Israel’s intensifying conflict with Iran, the country is continuing its expansionist project in the West Bank, jeopardising any remaining chance for a two-state solution
Israel’s unprecedented strikes across Iran have shattered nuclear diplomacy and paved the way for regional war. As America scrambles to respond, Europeans can help curb dangerous escalation
Once a beacon of progressive hope, Tunisia’s economy teeters on the brink and its president jails opponents and scapegoats migrants. European governments have the tools to support Tunisian reform and resilience if they can look beyond short-term migration management
Europe’s sidelined diplomats watch as Trump’s team tussles over Iran’s nuclear fate. With “snapback” sanctions looming, Britain, France and Germany must hustle to shape a deal or risk being mere spectators
The United States has now ended its campaign of airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthi movement, having achieved little military success and instead playing into Houthi attempts to consolidate domestic control
Israel has refused to implement the second phase of its ceasefire agreement with Hamas and launched a new wave of attacks against Gaza, with US backing. Europeans need to respond with sanctions and diplomatic action
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
With a two-state solution at risk, Europeans must work closely with Arab states to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to an end
Saudi-Iran diplomacy offers a rare path to prevent deepening conflict in the Middle East and support regional stability. Europeans should see this diplomacy as a chance to address their core interests, and not just as Iran’s attempt to bypass Western pressure
Severe weaknesses in the Egyptian and Tunisian economies provoke recurrent crises. There is a better way for Europeans to support Cairo and Tunis
North African countries are increasingly adopting ‘security first’ approaches towards sub-Saharan African migrants – a shift that could force EU states to rethink their own approach to the issue
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflict out into the open – and Lebanon and Syria are potential flashpoints for further escalation
China is strengthening its ties to the Gulf in areas well beyond the energy sector. The EU clearly has stakes in the region, but it should not try to directly counter China’s influence. It should instead build its own Gulf partnerships
Saudi Arabia has become a middle power with outsize influence on global issues. To protect their interests, Europeans need a new approach to working with Riyadh which recognises the kingdom’s priorities
The cycle of escalation in the Middle East since 7 October means Iraq has once again found itself a staging ground for Iranian-US conflict. But the relationship between Iraq and Iran is complex and multifaceted – and Europeans can help Iraq build its autonomy
Once fierce advocates of military action against Tehran, Gulf countries now call for restraint and diplomacy. No longer viewing Trump as a partner; they now fear the US may be more liability than protection
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran could have serious implications across the Middle East, not least by exacerbating ongoing tensions between Turkey and Israel. Europeans need to reassure Ankara that they are focused on regional stability—and take Turkey’s defence concerns seriously
ECFR Council members urge European governments to pull every available lever to prevent escalation in the Middle East
Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser, threatening key European interests. Europe must avoid making the same mistakes that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion, prioritise diplomacy and urge the US not to get entangled in a war with Iran
As Europeans focus on Israel’s intensifying conflict with Iran, the country is continuing its expansionist project in the West Bank, jeopardising any remaining chance for a two-state solution
Israel’s unprecedented strikes across Iran have shattered nuclear diplomacy and paved the way for regional war. As America scrambles to respond, Europeans can help curb dangerous escalation
Once a beacon of progressive hope, Tunisia’s economy teeters on the brink and its president jails opponents and scapegoats migrants. European governments have the tools to support Tunisian reform and resilience if they can look beyond short-term migration management
Europe’s sidelined diplomats watch as Trump’s team tussles over Iran’s nuclear fate. With “snapback” sanctions looming, Britain, France and Germany must hustle to shape a deal or risk being mere spectators
The United States has now ended its campaign of airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthi movement, having achieved little military success and instead playing into Houthi attempts to consolidate domestic control
Israel has refused to implement the second phase of its ceasefire agreement with Hamas and launched a new wave of attacks against Gaza, with US backing. Europeans need to respond with sanctions and diplomatic action
This ECFR project maps the Red Sea region as a nexus of conflict, regional rivalries and global power plays. To address the risks of this instability, Europeans need to develop a more comprehensive approach
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
The conversation around achieving peace and prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa needs to become more inclusive and diverse, through an injection of fresh ideas and perspectives from regional voices
European states face accusations of neglecting the matter of human rights in their southern neighbourhood, and even of being complicit. Yet they are failing to maximise the influence they could bring to bear
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
ECFR’s Differentiation Tracker provides a snapshot of third state relations with Israel – and the extent to which these contain a clearly defined territorial definition that explicitly excludes Israeli settlements constructed on occupied territory in line with UNSCR 2334
Violence is tearing Mali and the Sahel apart. But who are the armed groups behind the bloodshed? Where are international actors stationed in the region? And what motivates them all?
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Eran Etzion to unpack the latest developments in the conflict between Iran and Israel
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to unpack Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran and the risk of regional escalation
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey to unpack the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Europe’s escalating response
Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Dina Esfandiary, Yasmine Farouk and Dania Thafer to unpack how Arab Gulf monarchies used Donald Trump’s recent visit to showcase their geopolitical strength
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, Mohsen Milani and Nathalie Tocci to unpack the latest developments in US-Iran diplomacy
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh and Hugh Lovatt to discuss Syria’s evolving political landscape, its future trajectories—and the strategic implications for Europe and beyond
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon
Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Dr. Manal Radwan to talk about the impact of Donald Trump’s election for the wars in the Middle East
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the regional war in the Middle East one year on from the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel
As Africa becomes an increasingly central arena for Russia’s interests, the role of the United States and China is undergoing significant transformation. With Trump’s return…
Nella sua edizione 2025, la quarta da quando il progetto è stato lanciato, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani think tanker italiani under-40 per…
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzato sul ruolo degli Emirati Arabi Uniti in Africa. Mentre i leader europei riflettono sul…
Negli ultimi anni, la presenza della Russia in Africa è cresciuta significativamente, sia nel Nord Africa che nell’Africa Subsahariana, presentando una sfida strategica per l’Europa e, in particolare, per l’Italia. Mosca ha rafforzato la sua presenza nel continente attraverso una serie di accordi bilaterali, cooperazioni militari, e investimenti economici e nel settore energetico. Questo incremento di influenza è stato percepito come una mossa strategica per aumentare il suo peso globale e per contrastare l’influenza occidentale
Josep Borrell Fontelles is the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission. He was President of the…
As European leaders navigate the EU’s strategic future amid rising geopolitical tensions, a critical mass of middle powers, from India and Turkey to the Gulf…
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
La discussione “Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico”, organizzata dall’ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ed ELEC – European League for Economic Cooperation, avrà luogo, in forma virtuale, mercoledì 12 giugno 2024 dalle ore 16:30 alle ore 18:00 sulla piattaforma Zoom
L’IMEC è un progetto a lungo termine che richiede investimenti considerevoli e presenta notevoli ostacoli interni ed esterni. Ma il potenziale del corridoio di rafforzare i legami tra potenze diverse potrebbe rivelarsi prezioso in questo mondo frammentato e turbolento, con benefici geopolitici e geoeconomici per Europa ed i suoi partner
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzato sulle prospettive del corridoio IMEC come ponte economico tra Oriente ed Occidente
Netanyahu succeeded in making Trump fall into the “alliance trap” and seems to have emerged strengthened from the 12-day war
Ellie Geranmayeh on the experiences of Iranians in the Israel-Iran war and what this means for the future of the Ayatollah
