Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public
Russia’s war on Ukraine is a test of European values. The way European governments respond is critical for European sentiment, unity, and solidarity with Ukraine
European Power
Featured
Keeping the lights on: The EU’s energy relationships since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The EU’s ‘friends in need’ have supported it through the energy crisis. The bloc must now balance buying more gas with helping supplier states develop clean energy
Between the lines: Monitoring Putin’s response to Ukraine’s long-range missiles
Ukraine has carried out its first strikes inside Russian territory with Western-made, long-range missiles; Vladimir Putin responded by launching a new type of weapon. NATO allies must now send a clear deterrence message without following Russia’s escalatory rhetoric
The new Futurism: What a Meloni-Musk alliance could mean for Europe
Elon Musk’s bold vision for technological progress aligns with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s nationalist agenda, offering Italy’s right-wing movement a modern cultural framework while posing challenges for European unity
Between two Donalds: How Tusk’s relationship with Trump could foster EU-US cooperation
The United States and Poland have a historic allyship. Despite Donald Tusk and Donald Trump harbouring opposing ideological motivations, there remains scope for the two countries to work together in the interest of European security
Scholz’s populism playbook: Why Germany needs to tackle fringe-party influence to preserve EU unity
Germany’s political chaos is giving populist fringe parties unprecedented influence over policymaking. As internal divisions deepen within the governing coalition, these parties are shaping the political discourse and threatening the country’s – and the EU’s – stability
Der Untergang: As Trump returns, Putin will reap the rewards of Europe’s inaction on Ukraine
Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
Recharge or regret: Why the EU must act decisively to secure Europe’s struggling battery industry
Northvolt’s near-collapse demonstrates why the EU needs an economic security doctrine to identify where in the battery supply chain Europe can create winners – and then go all-in for success. If Europe continues down the same path, its battery industry will hit a wall
Art of the deal: Four ways Europeans can find new trade partners in the Trump era
Trump’s trade policy is likely to harm European trade with America. Decision-makers can start to mitigate this now
Trump’s return is terrible news for Ukraine. Europe should step into the breach – but will it?
With Germany’s government collapsing and Europeans so divided in their response to Trump, unity is essential yet elusive
Navigating a new America: Harris or Trump, Europeans need a collective US strategy
As the US election nears, EU member states must unite to navigate shifting American priorities, safeguarding their interests for a stable and mature transatlantic relationship
Beyond deterrence: How Zelensky’s victory plan can live up to its name
Ukraine’s victory plan can only move beyond being a deterrence strategy with less prevarication from Europeans. But Kyiv will also need to adapt to the realities of fluctuating Western support
Publications
Brazil: Europe’s bridge to the global south
Brazil and Europe share many similarities: both seek autonomy amid escalating US-China tensions – while championing multilateralism and navigating democratic pressures for a values-based foreign policy. However, their potential for collaboration remains largely untapped
Better firefighting: Readying Europe for an age between war and peace
Facing wars and crises, the EU can no longer rely on slow peacetime processes. It needs a plan for faster industrial and infrastructural adaptation
Control-Alt-Deliver: A digital grand strategy for the European Union
The EU is falling behind the US and China in the digital realm. It urgently needs a new agenda combining innovation, security, and influence for an age of geopoliticised technology
Power to the people: How the EU’s energy transition can help fight the “greenlash”
The EU’s energy transition is a pragmatic political choice – one that can even help the new European Commission and member state governments fight the “greenlash”
Welcome to Barbieland: European sentiment in the year of wars and elections
Like the titular character in the movie “Barbie”, the EU is prone to regarding itself as more perfect than it really is. This year’s European Sentiment Compass lays bare the EU’s blind spots – and explains why ignoring them could have long-term repercussions for democracy inside the bloc
Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario
In the coming years, China’s leaders could make good on their pledges to “reunify” Taiwan and the Chinese mainland by force. European policymakers need to begin preparing economic statecraft options for such a scenario – and they need to do so now
Eco-nomics: A green industrial policy for the next European Commission
The EU cannot afford to stay divided on its green industrial policy. Instead, the next European Commission should spearhead a common and credible approach to ensure the bloc catches the next green technology wave
Defending Europe with less America
Shifting US priorities and a degrading security environment – not to mention the possibility of a second Trump presidency – mean Europeans finally have to take more responsibility for their own security
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
Fortune favours the bold: Upgrading the EU’s geoeconomic strategy
The EU has started to join the dots between its economic and security policies. But as other powers reshape the geoeconomic landscape, it needs to upgrade its strategy beyond risk mitigation and competitiveness
Articles
Between the lines: Monitoring Putin’s response to Ukraine’s long-range missiles
Ukraine has carried out its first strikes inside Russian territory with Western-made, long-range missiles; Vladimir Putin responded by launching a new type of weapon. NATO allies must now send a clear deterrence message without following Russia’s escalatory rhetoric
The new Futurism: What a Meloni-Musk alliance could mean for Europe
Elon Musk’s bold vision for technological progress aligns with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s nationalist agenda, offering Italy’s right-wing movement a modern cultural framework while posing challenges for European unity
Between two Donalds: How Tusk’s relationship with Trump could foster EU-US cooperation
The United States and Poland have a historic allyship. Despite Donald Tusk and Donald Trump harbouring opposing ideological motivations, there remains scope for the two countries to work together in the interest of European security
Scholz’s populism playbook: Why Germany needs to tackle fringe-party influence to preserve EU unity
Germany’s political chaos is giving populist fringe parties unprecedented influence over policymaking. As internal divisions deepen within the governing coalition, these parties are shaping the political discourse and threatening the country’s – and the EU’s – stability
Der Untergang: As Trump returns, Putin will reap the rewards of Europe’s inaction on Ukraine
Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
Recharge or regret: Why the EU must act decisively to secure Europe’s struggling battery industry
Northvolt’s near-collapse demonstrates why the EU needs an economic security doctrine to identify where in the battery supply chain Europe can create winners – and then go all-in for success. If Europe continues down the same path, its battery industry will hit a wall
Art of the deal: Four ways Europeans can find new trade partners in the Trump era
Trump’s trade policy is likely to harm European trade with America. Decision-makers can start to mitigate this now
Trump’s return is terrible news for Ukraine. Europe should step into the breach – but will it?
With Germany’s government collapsing and Europeans so divided in their response to Trump, unity is essential yet elusive
Navigating a new America: Harris or Trump, Europeans need a collective US strategy
As the US election nears, EU member states must unite to navigate shifting American priorities, safeguarding their interests for a stable and mature transatlantic relationship
Beyond deterrence: How Zelensky’s victory plan can live up to its name
Ukraine’s victory plan can only move beyond being a deterrence strategy with less prevarication from Europeans. But Kyiv will also need to adapt to the realities of fluctuating Western support
Specials
Energy Sovereignty Index: Gains, gaps, and the road ahead
ECFR’s 2024 Energy Sovereignty Index shows both progress and persistent pitfalls on the EU’s path to energy independence, efficiency, and cleanness. While gains in renewable energy and efficiency are notable, the bloc’s heavy reliance on energy imports is a critical vulnerability
Multilateral Matchmaker
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
Energy Sovereignty Index
ECFR presents an innovative new way to assess the energy sovereignty of EU member states in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
EU Energy Deals Tracker
The energy deals the EU and its member states are now making with third countries will shape Europeans’ ability to protect their energy security in the long term. The EU Energy Deals Tracker provides a comprehensive overview of these agreements, including their implications for the sustainable transition
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
The European Sentiment Compass 2022
In the wake of pandemic and war, the Sentiment Compass assesses the changing expectations of the EU across its member states. It finds that EU should harness the power of culture and the free media to nurture a stronger European sentiment – helping it to address the major challenges facing the continent
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Podcasts
Brazil’s role in a changing world order
Mark Leonard welcomes José Ignacio Torreblanca and Pawel Zerka to discuss Brazil’s role in a changing world order
What Trump’s election means for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, Piotr Buras, Anna Kuchenbecker, Maria Simeonova, and Arturo Varvelli to discuss what the outcome of the US election means for Europe
Germany special: The coalition collapse
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, Janka Oertel, and Jana Puglierin to discuss the collapse of the German government coalition
China’s trade challenges for the European economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to discuss EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the potential for future economic sanctions
Giorgia Meloni: Redefining Italy’s place in Europe and the world
Mark Leonard welcomes Lykke Friis, Sylvie Kauffmann, and Arturo Varvelli to discuss Italy’s role on the global stage, and how it fits into Europe’s future
Germany, France, and the rise of Euroscepticism
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jana Puglierin to discuss recent developments in French and German politics, and the wider implications for Europe
The world after the West: Sasha Gabuev and Mikhail Komin on Russia’s role in international organisations
Mark Leonard welcome Sasha Gabuev and Mikhail Komin to discuss how Russia’s involvement in international organisations is impacting its strategic regional interests
The world after the West: Lynn Kuok on south-east Asia
South-east Asia is a culturally and geographically diverse region, notable for its proximity and economic ties to China. Though the political structure of the region’s…
The world after the West: Alex Velez-Green on the United States
In American foreign policy debates, prioritisers argue that the US should focus on deterring Chinese expansion, consequently shifting its resources away from Europe and towards…
The world after the West: Rana Mitter on China
In recent years, China has overtaken the United States as the largest trading partner of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Not only has…
Events
27 Nov
The EU in the age of Digital Empires
The internet has upended the world order. The exercise of power and governance in the digital sphere has become a major source of geopolitical contestation
22 Nov
Samba Steps: Understanding Brazil’s global role and what it means for Europe
As global power dynamics shift amid intensifying US-China rivalry, the rise of assertive middle powers, and increased scepticism toward the international rules-based order, Europe finds…
22 Nov
The Interplay of Technology and Geopolitics: How Will AI Shape the Future World?
Si tratta del quinto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi University
20 Nov
Navigating EU’s Technological Dilemmas: Embracing the case for a European Digital Grand Strategy
In an increasingly tech-driven world, Europe wants to impose its voice among the global leaders in the field. To secure a technological influence, much work…
31 Oct
La cooperación birregional en materia tecnológica y digital en el contexto de la Cumbre UE-CELAC 2025
El European Council on Foreign Relations organizó un debate público el jueves, 31 de octubre de 11:00 a 13:00 h en Casa de América con…
17 Oct
Das ÜberLeben der Anderen: Warum Deutschlands Sicherheit global gedacht werden muss
Konflikte in Gaza, im Sudan und in der Ukraine, irreguläre Migration, Klimakrise und Extremismus: Die Welt wird von immer mehr gleichzeitig aufretenden Krisen erschüttert, die…
7 Oct
The impact of Big Tech on democracies
Over the past decades, poorly regulated technology has become a forceful instrument for autocrats around the world, also impacting democracies and citizens, as seen in…
1 Oct
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
17 Jul
Transizione energetica, tecnologia e geopolitica: quali scenari strategici per Europa & Italia?
La sfida tecnologica posta dalla transizione energetica è un fattore dirimente di competizione tra gli attori internazionali, con implicazioni critiche sul futuro assetto geoeconomico globale, come reso evidente dalle tensioni nelle relazioni commerciali tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Unione Europea. Allo stesso tempo, la proiezione esterna degli attori internazionali e lo sforzo di costruzione di nuove partnership e collaborazioni sono meccanismi essenziali per lo sviluppo di catene del valore resilienti
In the media
In their op-ed, Leo Litra and Elie Tenenbaum argue for a European coalition to issue ironclad security guarantees to Ukraine
The reason they are multiplying is the collision of several challenges – from the war in the Middle East, Ukraine and now in Syria, the economic crisis, fear-mongering about increasing migration flows
We should not expect this majority to have its own solidity and political project. The political project is in the hands of Ursula von Der Leyen
