Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public
Russia’s war on Ukraine is a test of European values. The way European governments respond is critical for European sentiment, unity, and solidarity with Ukraine
European Power
Featured
Keeping the lights on: The EU’s energy relationships since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The EU’s ‘friends in need’ have supported it through the energy crisis. The bloc must now balance buying more gas with helping supplier states develop clean energy
“Secure and controllable”: How Beijing is writing Europe out of its systems
Chinese utilities are stripping European technology out of their critical infrastructure on security grounds, while Chinese suppliers are trying to expand across Europe. Closing that gap means treating Beijing’s own risk assessments as a guide to Europe’s vulnerabilities
Unlikely Europeans: The hidden voters who could sway France’s presidential election
Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, pro-European candidates may find unexpected opportunities among voters of both the radical left and the far right
Stable decoupling: Three tests for Europe in the face of Chinese economic coercion
Europeans should defend their rules on trade, investment and infrastructure—and, in so doing, change the logic that encourages Chinese retaliation
How Europeans can support the south Caucasus’s last democracy
To reduce its dependency on Russia, Armenia is diversifying its foreign policy. Until peace with Azerbaijan is secured, Europeans need to provide Yerevan with extra support
The un-ordered UN order
As European leaders hobnob with their counterparts at the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, they must think carefully about how to navigate a fast-changing multilateral landscape. The old world belonged to rule-makers and institution-builders, but the current one favours those who can improvise
Associate membership could transform EU-Canada ties. First, Brussels has to define it
Canada’s enthusiasm for closer EU ties is real, and so is the EU’s need for allies beyond America. But as long as the EU’s offer of “associate membership” to Canada remains undefined, it risks ending up as empty symbolism
Friends without benefits: Why the EU should offer Canada more than casual defence ties
Trump is pushing Canada—a quiet military powerhouse—away from America. The EU should seize the chance and fold it into its own defence
Beyond Saxony-Anhalt: What Merz’s crisis means for Europe
The far-right AfD’s win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels
After Tidö: What a centre-left Sweden would change for Europe
Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats is the favourite to become Sweden’s next prime minister, but only after months of hard coalition bargaining. Who she governs with would shape how far her foreign policy shifts
Actually, maybe: How German Angst could become Europe’s nightmare
Germany’s political centre is crumbling—but its leaders appear unable to get ahead of the impending crisis
Publications
Middle powerhouse: A new blueprint for British internationalism
Britain is the custodian of a global order that no longer exists. Its international approach should now centre innovative cooperation and building strong coalitions with like-minded partners
Little Venice, little Sparta: The UAE’s statecraft meets the war on Iran
The UAE built its power by turning itself into a hub that binds it to every great power at once. The war with Iran has tested this strategy and is forcing a rethink in Abu Dhabi
An outsider within: The paradox of the Europe-Turkey relationship
Turkey is neither drifting away from the West nor is it coming home. It has become an embedded outsider: a middle power that has learned to build strategic autonomy from inside the Western system rather than by leaving it
If Marine Le Pen wins: A European guide to a far-right France
A Le Pen-led France would mean major changes to European politics. Here’s how political leaders can begin to prepare
The future is fermented: How Europe can succeed in the next industrial race
The next industrial revolution will be built with microbes as much as machines. China understands this. Europe still has the science to compete but must act quickly before industrial leadership slips away again
Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future
Ten years on from the referendum, the British electorate has moved on from its old divisions and—in a world of crisis—is embracing an ambitious move back towards the European Union
Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it
Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France
Jordan Bardella is the frontrunner in the French presidential election next year. His win would transform France’s place in Europe. This scenario shows how
The new climate battle: Five deals to recharge the green transition
As climate policy becomes increasingly contested, Europe must adapt its Green Deal to a new political era. The first policy brief in the New Politics project outlines five new deals to make the transition more durable, popular and politically resilient
Articles
“Secure and controllable”: How Beijing is writing Europe out of its systems
Chinese utilities are stripping European technology out of their critical infrastructure on security grounds, while Chinese suppliers are trying to expand across Europe. Closing that gap means treating Beijing’s own risk assessments as a guide to Europe’s vulnerabilities
Unlikely Europeans: The hidden voters who could sway France’s presidential election
Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, pro-European candidates may find unexpected opportunities among voters of both the radical left and the far right
Stable decoupling: Three tests for Europe in the face of Chinese economic coercion
Europeans should defend their rules on trade, investment and infrastructure—and, in so doing, change the logic that encourages Chinese retaliation
How Europeans can support the south Caucasus’s last democracy
To reduce its dependency on Russia, Armenia is diversifying its foreign policy. Until peace with Azerbaijan is secured, Europeans need to provide Yerevan with extra support
The un-ordered UN order
As European leaders hobnob with their counterparts at the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, they must think carefully about how to navigate a fast-changing multilateral landscape. The old world belonged to rule-makers and institution-builders, but the current one favours those who can improvise
Associate membership could transform EU-Canada ties. First, Brussels has to define it
Canada’s enthusiasm for closer EU ties is real, and so is the EU’s need for allies beyond America. But as long as the EU’s offer of “associate membership” to Canada remains undefined, it risks ending up as empty symbolism
Friends without benefits: Why the EU should offer Canada more than casual defence ties
Trump is pushing Canada—a quiet military powerhouse—away from America. The EU should seize the chance and fold it into its own defence
Beyond Saxony-Anhalt: What Merz’s crisis means for Europe
The far-right AfD’s win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels
After Tidö: What a centre-left Sweden would change for Europe
Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats is the favourite to become Sweden’s next prime minister, but only after months of hard coalition bargaining. Who she governs with would shape how far her foreign policy shifts
Actually, maybe: How German Angst could become Europe’s nightmare
Germany’s political centre is crumbling—but its leaders appear unable to get ahead of the impending crisis
Specials
Future nostalgia: Europe’s unfinished song
ECFR’s new research reveals Europeans are suffering from an imagination gap. Many people want to see Europe strong and flourishing—but fewer can picture a credible route from today’s disruptions to that destination
Energy Sovereignty Index: Gains, gaps, and the road ahead
ECFR’s 2024 Energy Sovereignty Index shows both progress and persistent pitfalls on the EU’s path to energy independence, efficiency, and cleanness. While gains in renewable energy and efficiency are notable, the bloc’s heavy reliance on energy imports is a critical vulnerability
Multilateral Matchmaker
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
Energy Sovereignty Index
ECFR presents an innovative new way to assess the energy sovereignty of EU member states in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
EU Energy Deals Tracker
The energy deals the EU and its member states are now making with third countries will shape Europeans’ ability to protect their energy security in the long term. The EU Energy Deals Tracker provides a comprehensive overview of these agreements, including their implications for the sustainable transition
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
The European Sentiment Compass 2022
In the wake of pandemic and war, the Sentiment Compass assesses the changing expectations of the EU across its member states. It finds that EU should harness the power of culture and the free media to nurture a stronger European sentiment – helping it to address the major challenges facing the continent
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
Podcasts
Sánchez’s biggest gamble yet
Mark Leonard welcomes Carla Hobbs and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss how Spain’s upcoming election could change the country and Europe
Turkey’s place in Europe
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow at ECFR and a fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe…
Emergency Room: The AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to discuss the Alternative for Germany (AfD)’s election win in Saxony-Anhalt—and what it means for Germany and Europe
Germany’s second China shock
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel and Andrew Small to discuss how China’s industrial rise is shaking Germany—and Europe’s—economic foundations
Political crisis in Germany
Mark Leonard welcomes Jörg Lau and Jana Puglierin to discuss Germany’s deepening political crisis, the rise of the AfD and how the country’s regional elections could impact Europe’s largest democracy
Marine Le Pen’s comeback
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Cliffe to discuss Marine Le Pen’s return to the French presidential race
British politics ten years after Brexit
Mark Leonard welcomes Marcus Roberts to discuss the legacy of Brexit and the latest developments in British politics
How progress ends
Mark Leonard speaks to Carl Benedikt Frey about the global productivity slowdown, the limits of AI and why the greatest economic risk may be the end of progress itself
The age of hyperpolitics
Mark Leonard welcomes Anton Jäger to discuss why political engagement is surging across Western democracies
The rise of populism
Mark Leonard speaks to Liam Byrne about populism across Europe and the failure of mainstream politics to respond
Events
2
Dec
RSVP
European Power
DARE* Conference – Crafting a geopolitical playbook for Europe’s industrial future: Secure. Sovereign. Competitive.
Secure, sovereign, competitive – that is the ambition for a Europe able to withstand the geopolitical and economic turmoil of the current moment. A Europe that can deliver on this ambition will need abundant energy to power its future, foundational industry that is able to innovate, and diversified supply chains that ensure resilience. …
29
Oct
RSVP
European Power
Towards a new European energy architecture
Europe’s future depends on the energy choices it makes today. Can Europe secure cleaner, more affordable and more reliable energy, and build the infrastructure its industries need, to face a more turbulent world? Join leading policymakers, business representatives and experts for the debate, and put your questions to them
6
Oct
European Power
What is the European Idea of Power in an Age of Chaos? How Europe can build alliances and defend its interests when the rules no longer hold
What happens when powers no longer agree on the rules, or even on what international order should look like? In his new book, Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail, Mark Leonard calls this condition “Un-Order”. He distinguishes between “architects”, who seek to build a stable system, and “artisans”, who adapt to changing…
1
Oct
European Power
Across the Divide: A Europe–China Dialogue on Power, Civilization, and the Global Future
As global power becomes more dispersed, the relationship between Europe (and the West) and China is increasingly shaped not only by trade and security but by differing conceptions of order, legitimacy, and development. This event brings together two prominent voices to explore those conceptions in frank and balanced terms. Professor Zhang Weiwei is one…
30
Sep
European Security
Beyond the NATO Summit: What Future for European Security
Amid growing uncertainty, Europeans face a fundamental challenge: how to keep themselves safe with potentially less America while deterring a more aggressive Russia. Europe’s security environment has been exposed to vulnerabilities not only on the battlefield but also across cyberspace, critical infrastructure, supply chains, energy networks, and the information sphere. Hybrid threats have become a…
European Power
Little Venice, little Sparta: The UAE’s statecraft meets the war on Iran
For two decades the United Arab Emirates has built its influence on connectivity: ports, air links, finance and data centres that made Abu Dhabi and Dubai difficult to bypass. The 2026 war with Iran has tested that model harder than anything before it. By the ceasefire in April, Emirati air defences had engaged more…
European Power
The Embedded Outsider: Turkey as a Middle Power and its Relations to Europe
Turkey hosted this year’s NATO summit and fields the alliance’s second-largest army, arms Ukraine while trading with Russia, and remains an EU candidate whose accession talks collapsed years ago. Europeans keep asking whether Ankara can be anchored in the West or is drifting away. Both questions assume Turkey must eventually choose a home when…
European Power
Brewed in China 2035: How can Europe compete in the next industrial race?
China is already the undisputed champion of traditional manufacturing. But China’s leadership wants more: it aspires to lead in the next generation of production by 2035 – and biomanufacturing has emerged as a priority for China’s economic security, resilience and strategic autonomy. Europe has seen this movie before. As with solar panels or…
2
Jul
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Hormuz, energia e connettività: la doppia sfida per l’Europa
La chiusura dello Stretto di Hormuz ha posto l’Europa di fronte a una doppia sfida: ripensare la transizione energetica in un contesto di forte incertezza sugli idrocarburi e sviluppare nuove rotte di connettività per ridurre la vulnerabilità a shock geopolitici. Tra i temi al centro del confronto: l’elettrificazione come pilastro necessario ma non sufficiente,…
16
Jun
European Power
Spazio e Artico: arene della competizione geopolitica contemporanea
L’Ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in collaborazione con il Centro Studi Americani, Aspen Institute Italia, Geopolitica.info, Airpress e Osservatorio Artico, ha preso parte alla conferenza “Spazio e Artico: arene della competizione geopolitica contemporanea“, che si è tenuta il 16 giugno 2026 presso il Centro Studi Americani, Via Michelangelo Caetani…
In the media
Angela Ziccardi on developments in the Gulf and their repercussions on Europe and energy prices
