Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public
Russia’s war on Ukraine is a test of European values. The way European governments respond is critical for European sentiment, unity, and solidarity with Ukraine
European Power
Featured
Keeping the lights on: The EU’s energy relationships since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The EU’s ‘friends in need’ have supported it through the energy crisis. The bloc must now balance buying more gas with helping supplier states develop clean energy
Goodbye, realpolitik: Germany, France, and the rise of Euroscepticism
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jana Puglierin to discuss recent developments in French and German politics, and the wider implications for Europe
Going ballistic: How Europeans can respond to Iranian military support for Russia
European and US governments announced this week that Iran has supplied Russia with several hundred short range ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine…
17 Oct
Das ÜberLeben der Anderen: Warum Deutschlands Sicherheit global gedacht werden muss
Konflikte in Gaza, im Sudan und in der Ukraine, irreguläre Migration, Klimakrise und Extremismus: Die Welt wird von immer mehr gleichzeitig aufretenden Krisen erschüttert, die…
War, peace, and populism: How Germany’s extremist parties are shaping its foreign policy debate
Germany’s populist parties have enjoyed electoral success with their “anti-establishment” foreign policy. The governing centrist coalition must act fast to address their dangerous anti-Western stance before it becomes mainstream
The US election will overturn Europe’s strategic status quo
Kamala Harris’s ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket has eliminated Donald Trump’s polling lead and allowed Europeans to contemplate alternatives to what would be their worst-case scenario. Yet, even if Harris wins, it would be foolish to expect complete continuity with the Biden administration
Keep your frenemies close: Why von der Leyen should mend her relationship with Meloni
The strained relationship between Rome and Brussels risks weakening both parties’ foreign policy capabilities. To maintain a united front, the European Commission president would be better off extending an olive branch and giving Italy’s pick for commissioner the vice-president portfolio
The world after the West: Sasha Gabuev and Mikhail Komin on Russia’s role in international organisations
Mark Leonard welcome Sasha Gabuev and Mikhail Komin to discuss how Russia’s involvement in international organisations is impacting its strategic regional interests
1 Oct
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
The world after the West: Lynn Kuok on south-east Asia
South-east Asia is a culturally and geographically diverse region, notable for its proximity and economic ties to China. Though the political structure of the region’s…
Britain’s “root and branch” defence review must address two key questions
In a transformed geostrategic environment, Britain’s upcoming Strategic Defence Review must redefine the type of armed forces the country needs – while confronting the defence budget’s chronic wastefulness
Publications
Eco-nomics: A green industrial policy for the next European Commission
The EU cannot afford to stay divided on its green industrial policy. Instead, the next European Commission should spearhead a common and credible approach to ensure the bloc catches the next green technology wave
Defending Europe with less America
Shifting US priorities and a degrading security environment – not to mention the possibility of a second Trump presidency – mean Europeans finally have to take more responsibility for their own security
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
Fortune favours the bold: Upgrading the EU’s geoeconomic strategy
The EU has started to join the dots between its economic and security policies. But as other powers reshape the geoeconomic landscape, it needs to upgrade its strategy beyond risk mitigation and competitiveness
Winds of change: The EU’s green agenda after the European Parliament election
After the European Parliament election, the incoming EU institutions will likely prioritise security and competitiveness, complicating the path to climate action. Climate progressives will need compelling narratives, strategic resourcing, and diplomatic engagement to advance the best possible climate agenda over the next five years
The infinite connection: How to make the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor happen
The India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor is alive, if not yet kicking. Europeans should use the hiatus in the corridor’s development to agree on the next steps, with a focus on reconciling the various goals of all its participants
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Energising eastern Europe: How the EU can enhance energy sovereignty through cooperation with Ukraine and Moldova
Over the past two years, the EU has helped Ukraine and Moldova to diversify away from Russian fossil fuels. This has significantly strengthened their energy sovereignty – but improving the efficiency and cleanness of their energy sectors would bring further mutual benefits
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections
The 2024 European Parliament elections will see a shift to the right in many countries and could mean that a populist right coalition emerges with a majority for the first time
Articles
Going ballistic: How Europeans can respond to Iranian military support for Russia
European and US governments announced this week that Iran has supplied Russia with several hundred short range ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine…
War, peace, and populism: How Germany’s extremist parties are shaping its foreign policy debate
Germany’s populist parties have enjoyed electoral success with their “anti-establishment” foreign policy. The governing centrist coalition must act fast to address their dangerous anti-Western stance before it becomes mainstream
The US election will overturn Europe’s strategic status quo
Kamala Harris’s ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket has eliminated Donald Trump’s polling lead and allowed Europeans to contemplate alternatives to what would be their worst-case scenario. Yet, even if Harris wins, it would be foolish to expect complete continuity with the Biden administration
Keep your frenemies close: Why von der Leyen should mend her relationship with Meloni
The strained relationship between Rome and Brussels risks weakening both parties’ foreign policy capabilities. To maintain a united front, the European Commission president would be better off extending an olive branch and giving Italy’s pick for commissioner the vice-president portfolio
Britain’s “root and branch” defence review must address two key questions
In a transformed geostrategic environment, Britain’s upcoming Strategic Defence Review must redefine the type of armed forces the country needs – while confronting the defence budget’s chronic wastefulness
Home alone: Germany’s security and defence policy when its closest allies are gone
By relying extensively on France and the US for its security and defence, Germany could easily find itself isolated and at risk. Berlin needs to act fast
How can Keir Starmer keep Britain safe? As the US withdraws, he must renew the UK’s role in Europe
When the UK’s prime minister hosts other European leaders this week, their old protector will be absent. A shared approach to security is now vital
Need for speed: The case for a European defence production act
The EU’s red tape is preventing it from responding quickly enough to major crises. An EU defence production act could help
Cold rush: How a transatlantic ship pact can win the race for the Arctic
Icebreaker ships are critical in the competition for Arctic resources. A new initiative aims to strengthen transatlantic capabilities in building and deploying these ships, but more should be done if the pact is to counter Russian and Chinese ambitions
Anatomy of a close call: The aftermath of Macron’s great gamble
To form a workable government after the snap election, French parties will need to make coalitions and concessions. But such cooperation runs contrary to French political culture, and the likely divisions risk weakening France’s voice on the international and European stage
Specials
Multilateral Matchmaker
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
Energy Sovereignty Index
ECFR presents an innovative new way to assess the energy sovereignty of EU member states in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
EU Energy Deals Tracker
The energy deals the EU and its member states are now making with third countries will shape Europeans’ ability to protect their energy security in the long term. The EU Energy Deals Tracker provides a comprehensive overview of these agreements, including their implications for the sustainable transition
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
The European Sentiment Compass 2022
In the wake of pandemic and war, the Sentiment Compass assesses the changing expectations of the EU across its member states. It finds that EU should harness the power of culture and the free media to nurture a stronger European sentiment – helping it to address the major challenges facing the continent
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Independence play: Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy
To fulfil its true potential, the EU needs to end its strategic cacophony and focus on capability building
Podcasts
Goodbye, realpolitik: Germany, France, and the rise of Euroscepticism
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jana Puglierin to discuss recent developments in French and German politics, and the wider implications for Europe
The world after the West: Sasha Gabuev and Mikhail Komin on Russia’s role in international organisations
Mark Leonard welcome Sasha Gabuev and Mikhail Komin to discuss how Russia’s involvement in international organisations is impacting its strategic regional interests
The world after the West: Lynn Kuok on south-east Asia
South-east Asia is a culturally and geographically diverse region, notable for its proximity and economic ties to China. Though the political structure of the region’s…
The world after the West: Alex Velez-Green on the United States
In American foreign policy debates, prioritisers argue that the US should focus on deterring Chinese expansion, consequently shifting its resources away from Europe and towards…
The world after the West: Rana Mitter on China
In recent years, China has overtaken the United States as the largest trading partner of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Not only has…
The world after the West: Matias Spektor on Brazil
Brazil is a middle-power powerhouse. The largest and most populous country in Latin America, this founding member of BRICS+ wields strong cultural, economic, and diplomatic…
The world after the West: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri on India
Mark Leonard welcomes to Pramit Pal Chaudhuri to discuss India as a middle power
NATO at 75: The future of European defence
Vessela Tcherneva welcomes Camille Grand, Camille Lons, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, and Jana Puglierin to discuss the 75th NATO summit, and how Europe can defend itself with less America
The far-right falters: Outcomes of the French snap election
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin to discuss the results of the French election
Victory and visions: Labour’s approach to the EU
Mark Leonard welcomes Laurence Boone, Julian King and Ivan Rogers to discuss the results of the UK elections
Events
17 Oct
Das ÜberLeben der Anderen: Warum Deutschlands Sicherheit global gedacht werden muss
Konflikte in Gaza, im Sudan und in der Ukraine, irreguläre Migration, Klimakrise und Extremismus: Die Welt wird von immer mehr gleichzeitig aufretenden Krisen erschüttert, die…
1 Oct
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
17 Jul
Transizione energetica, tecnologia e geopolitica: quali scenari strategici per Europa & Italia?
La sfida tecnologica posta dalla transizione energetica è un fattore dirimente di competizione tra gli attori internazionali, con implicazioni critiche sul futuro assetto geoeconomico globale, come reso evidente dalle tensioni nelle relazioni commerciali tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Unione Europea. Allo stesso tempo, la proiezione esterna degli attori internazionali e lo sforzo di costruzione di nuove partnership e collaborazioni sono meccanismi essenziali per lo sviluppo di catene del valore resilienti
9 Jul
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
8 Jul
The Morning After: Analysing the Results of the French Election
As France discovers the new making of its national assembly, this webinar will analyse the election results and reflect on their impact on a geopolitical…
2 Jul
Economic Security 2.0: What is the EU’s next geoeconomics game plan?
As the European Union sets its new agenda, this webinar will delve into geoeconomics-related priorities for the incoming European Commission. Drawing on two new ECFR…
1 Jul
Dormant NATO: Future Prospects and Challenges
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of…
27 Jun
75 anni di NATO e Italia: stato dell’arte e sfide future
In occasione del 75esimo anniversario della NATO, la conferenza farà il punto sia sulla NATO nel contesto attuale e futuro, sia soprattutto sul ruolo dell’Italia nell’alleanza atlantica e il rapporto tra quest’ultima e gli interessi nazionali
20 Jun
How to Manage Europe’s Green Technology Dependence on China: A Black Coffee Morning
As the global landscape shifts towards strategic rivalry between China and the advanced industrial economies of the West, Europe finds itself at a crossroads, needing…
12 Jun
Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico
La discussione “Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico”, organizzata dall’ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ed ELEC – European League for Economic Cooperation, avrà luogo, in forma virtuale, mercoledì 12 giugno 2024 dalle ore 16:30 alle ore 18:00 sulla piattaforma Zoom
In the media
Germany starting to ruthlessly return all migrants away from its borders will cause a domino effect and other countries will follow suit
Piotr Buras on Germany’s decision to extend temporary controls to all its land borders
This will likely set a precedent for other EU member states that are not very supportive of migration, such as Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, to claim some kind of security threat
It would be problematic under European law and politically unwise if we tried to send all asylum seekers back to neighbouring countries at Germany’s border
Gerald Knaus criticises plans to turn away refugees at the German border
This entanglement of the two countries with Europe is inevitable, however much they try to flirt with China or Russia
Vessela Tcherneva comments on Serbia and Kosovo’s increasing connection to the EU. Serbia is integrating economically but not politically. Should the EU change its approach towards the two countries?
