The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader
New Atlanticism
Featured
27 Jun
75 anni di NATO e Italia: stato dell’arte e sfide future
In occasione del 75esimo anniversario della NATO, la conferenza farà il punto sia sulla NATO nel contesto attuale e futuro, sia soprattutto sul ruolo dell’Italia nell’alleanza atlantica e il rapporto tra quest’ultima e gli interessi nazionali
12 Mar
BERLIN-MADRID-PARIS-ROME Quadrilateral Dialogue – Europe in the post-US elections scenario
Building on the success and results of the 2023 Project “France-Italy-Germany Trilateral Dialogue: in Pursuit of a common agenda”, the 2024 Quadrilateral Project will continue to promote intra-European dialogue between capitals, extending last year’s trilateral format to Spain
Primary concern: Trump, Ukraine, and the Republicans’ foreign policy divisions
The candidates for the Republican primaries hold diverging views on the future of US foreign policy. In the event of a Republican victory, Europeans must prepare for an end to American support to Ukraine
A united front: How the US and the EU can move beyond trade tensions to counter China
The Inflation Reduction Act may reduce US dependency on China, but it also risks harming the transatlantic relationship. European governments must position themselves as critical allies for the US in order to preserve their economies – and effectively counter China’s geo-economic challenge
Peak Atlantic unity?
A few short years after being declared brain dead, the transatlantic alliance is thriving, with Americans and Europeans coordinating their response to Russian aggression and sharing similar views on China. But new storm clouds are gathering, and Europeans must prepare for darker days ahead
Polarised power: The three Republican ‘tribes’ that could define America’s relationship with the world
Three Republican ‘tribes’ are competing to write their next president’s US foreign policy. Whether ‘restrainers,’ ‘prioritisers,’ or ‘primacists’ emerge on top will have profound implications for Europe and the globe
Midterm blues: What a Republican win could mean for Europe, Ukraine, and the return of Trump
A Republican-controlled Congress could have significant consequences for the EU – on funding for Ukraine, but also at the level of political symbolism and attitudes towards Europe’s conservative strongmen
War and sovereignty: How the EU can enhance its ability to act
The EU has made insufficient progress in enhancing its sovereignty, particularly in security and defence. The union now needs to overcome internal differences to bolster its external ability to act
Shadow of the bomb: Russia’s nuclear threats
Russia is the first state to use nuclear threats as part of a war of expansion. Unless it loses in Ukraine, the world will become a far more dangerous place
No laughing MAGA: What the next US presidential election could mean for Europe
Europeans should be concerned not just with whether Trump will win but how to deal with the version of post-Trump America that could emerge in 2025
Publications
What Europeans think about the US-China Cold War
A majority of European citizens believe a new cold war with both China and Russia is under way – but they mostly do not think that their own country is involved
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Dark money politics: Why Europe should join Biden’s fight against corruption
European policymakers should set up high-profile national institutions that are charged with tackling corruption and capable of working within an international network
The evolution of US strategic priorities
The Biden administration’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance reflects an evolution in US strategic thinking and policy priorities
Artificial divide: How Europe and America could clash over AI
Artificial intelligence is a rapidly advancing field that policymakers everywhere are struggling to keep up with
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Divided at the centre: Germany, Poland, and the troubles of the Trump era
Introduction For most Europeans, it is now obvious that the foreign policy of US President Donald Trump threatens the global liberal order. Trump’s hostility towards…
The Trump opportunity: Chinese perceptions of the US administration
Four views from our authors on Chinese and Taiwanese views of the roots of Trump’s strategy and trade policy, and Chinese blind spots
Can Europe save the world order?
The rules-based international order is under threat. The EU should place its defence at the centre of its global strategy
Articles
Primary concern: Trump, Ukraine, and the Republicans’ foreign policy divisions
The candidates for the Republican primaries hold diverging views on the future of US foreign policy. In the event of a Republican victory, Europeans must prepare for an end to American support to Ukraine
A united front: How the US and the EU can move beyond trade tensions to counter China
The Inflation Reduction Act may reduce US dependency on China, but it also risks harming the transatlantic relationship. European governments must position themselves as critical allies for the US in order to preserve their economies – and effectively counter China’s geo-economic challenge
Peak Atlantic unity?
A few short years after being declared brain dead, the transatlantic alliance is thriving, with Americans and Europeans coordinating their response to Russian aggression and sharing similar views on China. But new storm clouds are gathering, and Europeans must prepare for darker days ahead
Polarised power: The three Republican ‘tribes’ that could define America’s relationship with the world
Three Republican ‘tribes’ are competing to write their next president’s US foreign policy. Whether ‘restrainers,’ ‘prioritisers,’ or ‘primacists’ emerge on top will have profound implications for Europe and the globe
Midterm blues: What a Republican win could mean for Europe, Ukraine, and the return of Trump
A Republican-controlled Congress could have significant consequences for the EU – on funding for Ukraine, but also at the level of political symbolism and attitudes towards Europe’s conservative strongmen
War and sovereignty: How the EU can enhance its ability to act
The EU has made insufficient progress in enhancing its sovereignty, particularly in security and defence. The union now needs to overcome internal differences to bolster its external ability to act
Shadow of the bomb: Russia’s nuclear threats
Russia is the first state to use nuclear threats as part of a war of expansion. Unless it loses in Ukraine, the world will become a far more dangerous place
No laughing MAGA: What the next US presidential election could mean for Europe
Europeans should be concerned not just with whether Trump will win but how to deal with the version of post-Trump America that could emerge in 2025
The exaggerated death of European sovereignty
The US may have dominated Western efforts to defend Ukraine, but future American leaders will expect Europeans to take up most of the burden of dealing with Russia
Why Europe has no say in the Russia-Ukraine crisis
On a fundamental level, Europe’s lack of agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis stems from a growing power imbalance in the Western alliance
Specials
Fear and loathing on the road to the US elections
European leaders are underestimating the danger that Trump presents to the transatlantic alliance and assuming too much continuity in the event of a Clinton presidency
Podcasts
The Age of Unpeace: Therapy for internationalists | Session 4 with Anne-Marie Slaughter
Join us on this journey to a more therapeutic approach to international relations. The mini-series brings you five special episodes with guests including today’s Anne-Marie Slaughter, Marietje Schaake, and Dan Drezner
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
How will the Western withdrawal impact on the state of European defence and military capabilities?
What future for the transatlantic alliance?
How well does the transatlantic alliance still fit with the way that Europe and the United States now see their goals in foreign policy?
The future of EU-China-US relations
What are the prospects for transatlantic cooperation on China now that a new US administration is in power?
How Europeans see Biden’s America
How do Europeans assess the future of transatlantic relations?
Top ten foreign policy trends in 2021
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
Europe’s new transatlantic bargain for Biden’s America
When Biden enters the White House, he will look for a Europe that brings solutions rather than problems. Europeans should show they can be an equal partner & offer him a new transatlantic bargain
An interview with Anne Applebaum and José Ignacio Torreblanca
Head of ECFR’s Madrid Office, Jose Ignacio Torreblanca talks to the American historian, a Pulitzer Prize winner for Gulag, and expert on authoritarian populism about…
Anxious allies: European sovereignty after the US election
How much impact does the future US president have on the very concept of European sovereignty? Will the idea and initiatives to build more strategic autonomy in Europe be put back to bed with Joe Biden in the White House?
Events
27 Jun
75 anni di NATO e Italia: stato dell’arte e sfide future
In occasione del 75esimo anniversario della NATO, la conferenza farà il punto sia sulla NATO nel contesto attuale e futuro, sia soprattutto sul ruolo dell’Italia nell’alleanza atlantica e il rapporto tra quest’ultima e gli interessi nazionali
12 Mar
BERLIN-MADRID-PARIS-ROME Quadrilateral Dialogue – Europe in the post-US elections scenario
Building on the success and results of the 2023 Project “France-Italy-Germany Trilateral Dialogue: in Pursuit of a common agenda”, the 2024 Quadrilateral Project will continue to promote intra-European dialogue between capitals, extending last year’s trilateral format to Spain
22 Mar
La Hora de la Sociedad Civil: Un Diálogo Transatlántico sobre Venezuela
Este debate fue una iniciativa del Foro Cívico, de la Oficina en Washington para Asuntos Latinoamericanos (WOLA), el Open Society Foundations (OSF) y el European…
11 Jun
What to expect from the Putin-Biden summit?
What, if anything, can one say about the longer-term perspectives for the US-Russia relationship?
5 May
Transatlantic relations after President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office
How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe? And how does the public in European countries view Biden’s America?
15 Mar
European Power in a Biden Era: what role for France and Germany?
ECFR’s latest polling finds that Europeans celebrated Joe Biden’s victory but are sceptical that we will see a global resurgence of US power and…
19 Feb
Crisi del potere americano? Come gli europei vedono l’America di Biden
Nonostante a novembre gli europei abbiano festeggiato la vittoria di Joe Biden, la maggior parte rimane scettica sulla possibilità di assistere ad una ripresa globale della potenza statunitense
16 Dec
NATO in a multipolar world
The European Council on Foreign Relations is delighted to invite you to a discussion on the role of the NATO in a world of revived geopolitical competition with a focus on the potential of the transatlantic alliance
1 Dec
THINKING BIG WITH Joseph S. Nye
Can America come back, as President-elect Joe Biden announced? Mark Leonard debates the idea with Joseph S. Nye
19 Nov
European Defence and NATO: towards Mutual Reinforcement
The current Covid19 crisis has reanimated the debate on defence, bringing to light new concerns, insights, and considerations about our future shared security. The objective of this initiative is to have an informative and innovative discussion on the future of European Defence and of NATO to drive toward mutual reinforcement
In the media
There is definitely an Italian regional and international role, which is not only the result of the G7 chairmanship, a format that is also disliked by Tehran
The Italian PM might root for Trump, but she’ll be shrewd enough to keep her options open
NATO leaders showed unity in supporting Ukraine, condemning China’s double dealing and the need to strengthen allies’ capabilities
Maria Simeonova commented on the latest news from America and the main messages from the NATO summit
The NATO summit in Washington showed that allies are united on: aid to Ukraine; condemnation of China’s double game; the need to strengthen capabilities, including through larger defense budgets