Beyond Saxony-Anhalt: What Merz’s crisis means for Europe
The far-right AfD’s win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels
Experts & Staff
Jeremy Cliffe
Editorial Director
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
European politics and foreign policy; EU institutions; Multilateralism; Geopolitics and global order
Languages
English (native), French, German, Italian, Spanish
Biography
Jeremy Cliffe is editorial director and senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He leads the editorial team, oversees ECFR’s publications, and co-heads the New Politics Project within the European Power programme. He is also a future world fellow at IE University in Madrid.
Previously Cliffe spent eight years at The Economist, where he wrote the Bagehot and Charlemagne columns, and served as bureau chief in Berlin and Brussels. He subsequently joined the New Statesman as international editor, building and leading the magazine’s global affairs coverage, before working as chief speechwriter and special adviser at the Open Society Foundations.
Cliffe has written widely across the European media including for the Financial Times, The Guardian, Die Zeit, Il Foglio, and El País, and appeared on broadcasters including CNN, CNBC, BBC World, Al Jazeera, and Deutsche Welle. He has also written and presented documentaries for BBC Radio 4. Cliffe was educated at the universities of Oxford and Harvard.
If Marine Le Pen wins: A European guide to a far-right France
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How to think about a Le Pen presidency of France
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Marine Le Pen’s comeback
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Cliffe to discuss Marine Le Pen’s return to the French presidential race
10
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The New Right: Understanding its legitimacy and policy agenda
As the rise of the new right and “MAGA-ization” of politics is having a greater impact on the UK and Europe, this event will aim to discuss these new movements – looking at their critique of the status-quo, their electoral base, policy agenda and organising and communication methods. Having spent the past year talking to…
If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France
Jordan Bardella is the frontrunner in the French presidential election next year. His win would transform France’s place in Europe. This scenario shows how
The new climate battle: Five deals to recharge the green transition
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Rise to the challengers: Europe’s populist parties and its foreign policy future
An array of populist parties are challenging Europe’s foreign policy mainstream. To secure European sovereignty, its politicians need to adapt—which means preparing for a variety of future diplomatic scenarios
Publications
If Marine Le Pen wins: A European guide to a far-right France
A Le Pen-led France would mean major changes to European politics. Here’s how political leaders can begin to prepare
If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France
Jordan Bardella is the frontrunner in the French presidential election next year. His win would transform France’s place in Europe. This scenario shows how
The new climate battle: Five deals to recharge the green transition
As climate policy becomes increasingly contested, Europe must adapt its Green Deal to a new political era. The first policy brief in the New Politics project outlines five new deals to make the transition more durable, popular and politically resilient
Rise to the challengers: Europe’s populist parties and its foreign policy future
An array of populist parties are challenging Europe’s foreign policy mainstream. To secure European sovereignty, its politicians need to adapt—which means preparing for a variety of future diplomatic scenarios
Articles
Beyond Saxony-Anhalt: What Merz’s crisis means for Europe
The far-right AfD’s win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels
How to think about a Le Pen presidency of France
Le Pen is racing into the French presidential election, even with a fraud conviction hanging over her campaign. Europeans should begin preparing for the rupture her victory could bring
Four principles for an EU-Hungary reset
Brussels should set clear conditions for Hungary’s European comeback—and use its moment of leverage to incentivise a geopolitical shift
From fence-sitter to pace-setter: How Merz’s Germany can lead Europe
On foreign policy, Germany’s new chancellor will be pulled between conservatism and radicalism. For Europe’s sake, he must choose the latter
Out of its time: Germany’s ominous election campaign
To restore much-needed German impetus in Europe, the country’s next government must find a new sense of urgency and common purpose
The Merz doctrine: What a CDU-led government would mean for German foreign policy
Germany’s likely next chancellor shares his party’s pro-EU and Atlanticist instincts, but also the country’s wider reluctance to play an exceptional international role
The emergency lane: How the EU can speed up its crisis responses
In times of crisis the EU can no longer rely on its standard, slow procedures. A European Defence Production Act could transform its ability to deal with shocks
Podcasts
Marine Le Pen’s comeback
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Cliffe to discuss Marine Le Pen’s return to the French presidential race
Live from MSC 2026: Transatlantic turning point
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, Ulrike Franke, Janka Oertel and Majda Ruge live from the Munich Security Conference to unpack its biggest moments
A new chapter in German politics
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin to discuss the inauguration of the new German government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz
German elections: Impact and implications for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Searching for Deutschland co-hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin, and ECFR colleagues Piotr Buras and Marie Dumoulin, to discuss the impact of Germany’s federal election on the country and beyond
What comes next: European discord or European leadership?
The final episode of Searching for Deutschland—a special crossover with the World in 30 Minutes—sees experts from Berlin, London, Paris and Warsaw break down…
Germany’s election results: Continuity or turning point?
On the morning after Germany’s election, Searching for Deutschland hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin were joined for a live webinar by ECFR colleagues Timo Lochocki…
Ukraine and the US-Russia talks: Deterrence or disarray?
In Searching for Deutschland’s last pre-election episode, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin review the Munich Security Conference, the US-Russia talks on Ukraine, and what the new…
Defence and the Zeitenwende: Glass half-empty or half-full?
Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin talk German defence and the future of the country’s armed forces. They review the…
Euroscepticism in Germany: Normalisation or radicalisation?
This week, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin discuss German election campaign frontrunner Friedrich Merz’s bid to win Bundestag votes on migration with support…
The China factor: Compete or double down?
Germany’s industrial model thrived for years thanks to soaring Chinese demand. But the relationship has recently become more contentious. This week, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and…
Events
10
Feb
The New Right: Understanding its legitimacy and policy agenda
As the rise of the new right and “MAGA-ization” of politics is having a greater impact on the UK and Europe, this event will aim to discuss these new movements – looking at their critique of the status-quo, their electoral base, policy agenda and organising and communication methods. Having spent the past year talking to…
European Power
ECFR election insights: Will Germany lead or lag in Europe’s next foreign policy chapter?
Germany’s election results are in—now what? Join the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) for a timely post-election analysis in the early morning after results are in. What does the outcome mean for Germany’s role on the European and global stage? Will the new government take a leadership role in shaping Europe’s foreign policy, or…
Asia
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential conflict over Taiwan. Perhaps counterintuitively, the EU likely holds more economic leverage over China than the bloc typically assumes. This is because Beijing would probably factor in retaliatory sanctions…
In the media
Jana Puglierin and Jeremy Cliffe on the consequences of the state elections on Germany’s EU politics
Thomas Wright cites Jeremy Cliffe’s paper on the foreign policies of the AfD
Jana Puglierin and Jeremy Cliffe on Merz’s fight for survival ahead of the German state elections
Jeremy Cliffe’s research was cited in zenith on the AfD’s global foreign-policy outlook and its East-West split
Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin on why Merz’s weakened Germany cannot anchor the EU