How to govern a fragmented EU: What Europeans said at the ballot box
The results of the European election confront EU leaders with a considerable challenge: navigating a new, more fragmented, and polarised political environment
Experts & Staff
Pawel Zerka
Senior policy fellow
Areas of expertise
Public opinion on foreign affairs
Languages
English, French, Spanish and Polish
Biography
Pawel Zerka is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
As the European Council on Foreign Relations’ lead analyst on public opinion, Pawel Zerka spearheads the organisation’s polling and data research on foreign affairs. His other areas of study include global trade policy, Latin American politics, as well as Poland’s and France’s role in the European Union. Based in the Paris office, Zerka has been part of the ECFR team since 2017, having worked previously as a foreign policy expert in Poland. He holds a PhD in economics and an MA in international relations from the Warsaw School of Economics.
Key takeaways from the European elections 2019
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Europe’s underestimated young voters
There are three reasons why pro-European parties should appeal to youth voters
Europe should do better on Venezuela
The EU has taken constructive steps to address the crisis in Venezuela, but the lack of a common European position could threaten progress towards a peaceful transition of power.
EU Elections: Could anti-Europe parties wreck the EU from within?
Mark Leonard speaks with Susi Dennison, director of ECFR’s European Power programme, and Pawel Zerka, programme coordinator for European Power, about the upcoming European Parliament…
The 2019 European election: How anti-Europeans plan to wreck Europe and what can be done to stop it
Summary With anti-Europeans on their way to winning more than one-third of seats in the next European Parliament, the stakes in the May 2019 election…
Fort Trump, Fortress Poland?
Brussels insiders may look askance at Polish entreaties to Donald Trump. But western EU member states share some of the blame for strained relations too
The march of the populist right: Is Sweden next?
The Sweden Democrats are set to lose the election – but win the power of kingmaker
Are spheres of influence still in? The EU and external security
The security perceptions scorecard highlights the EU's ability and willingness to act as a security provider, depending on the region
Publications
Welcome to Barbieland: European sentiment in the year of wars and elections
Like the titular character in the movie “Barbie”, the EU is prone to regarding itself as more perfect than it really is. This year’s European Sentiment Compass lays bare the EU’s blind spots – and explains why ignoring them could have long-term repercussions for democracy inside the bloc
Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world
European citizens are adapting slowly to the new geopolitical landscape. But leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus on Europe’s approach to China, the US, and Russia
Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public
Russia’s war on Ukraine is a test of European values. The way European governments respond is critical for European sentiment, unity, and solidarity with Ukraine
Tough trade: The hidden costs of economic coercion
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
Measured response: How to design a European instrument against economic coercion
The anti-coercion instrument needs to enable countermeasures that are both effective and credible; if it does not, this could carry more risks than benefits
The crisis that made the European Union: European cohesion in the age of covid
The pandemic poses a threat to European cohesion by increasing economic divides and undermining trust in the EU and national governments
The transformative five: A new role for the frugal states after the EU recovery deal
The reputation of Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and Sweden as ‘frugal states’ does not reflect public sentiment in these countries
Defending Europe’s Economic Sovereignty: new ways to resist economic coercion
The EU should move quickly to consider and adopt a suite of tools to protect and enhance European sovereignty in the geo-economic sphere
In sickness and in health: European cooperation during the coronavirus crisis
ECFR research into how EU member states and institutions worked together at the height of covid-19 confirms Germany was the bloc’s undisputed crisis leader
Together in trauma: Europeans and the world after covid-19
A new survey shows that, after the onset of the covid-19 crisis, there has been a rise in public support for unified EU action to tackle global threats
Articles
European Sentiment on a ballot: What the European Parliament election will reveal about the EU’s future
The meaning of the European Parliament election result lies not just in voter intention and turnout, but is also deeply linked with the participation of young Europeans
Message in a ballot: What Poland’s election means for Europe
Poland is making its return to Europe – but Warsaw’s partners may still need to be a little patient yet
New energy partners: A testing ground for Europe’s geopolitical turn
The war in Ukraine has forced Europeans to keep the lights on through adopting a far more strategic approach to their energy security. ECFR’s Energy Deals Tracker has monitored the success of the EU’s energy diversification – and identifies challenges ahead
After the riots: The future of Macron’s foreign policy
France’s support for EU and NATO enlargement could be transformational for European security. But domestic unrest and sniping by others could undermine French steadfastness on these major questions
Multilateral trade: The green European genie at the WTO
The EU’s use of trade policy in pursuit of its climate goals risks undermining its multilateral credentials and efforts to reform the WTO. To avoid this, it needs to take credible steps to reconcile its trade and climate agendas
Tracking Europe’s energy security: Four lessons from the EU’s new energy deals
The EU and its member states have taken unprecedented steps to reduce their dependence on Russian energy resources. ECFR’s new EU Energy Deals Tracker documents Europeans’ agreements with new suppliers – and highlights four key lessons for policymakers
The case for defence: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has proved France right
Old stereotypes about France’s position on Russia were not wholly unjustified. But in 2022, Paris’s actions and words merit greater attention from other EU capitals long suspicious of French motives
Running on empty: How trust among EU states can survive the energy crisis
Member states’ reactions to the energy crisis could endanger European unity. A mature political response would help the bloc stay united through the coming winter
The power of interdependence: Europe’s under-rated influence over Russia
Europeans are understandably eager to cut off all channels of Russian influence over their continent, especially in energy. But this interdependence has also allowed them to push back against Russian aggression
Summer resolution: How to sustain public support for Ukraine
The holiday period could erode public interest in Ukraine. Europeans should recognise that their attitudes towards Russia’s war on the country have consequences
Specials
Multilateral Matchmaker
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
EU Energy Deals Tracker
The energy deals the EU and its member states are now making with third countries will shape Europeans’ ability to protect their energy security in the long term. The EU Energy Deals Tracker provides a comprehensive overview of these agreements, including their implications for the sustainable transition
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
The European Sentiment Compass 2022
In the wake of pandemic and war, the Sentiment Compass assesses the changing expectations of the EU across its member states. It finds that EU should harness the power of culture and the free media to nurture a stronger European sentiment – helping it to address the major challenges facing the continent
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
The 2019 European election: How anti-Europeans plan to wreck Europe and what can be done to stop it
Summary With anti-Europeans on their way to winning more than one-third of seats in the next European Parliament, the stakes in the May 2019 election…
The nightmare of the dark: The security fears that keep Europeans awake at night
Great power competition is increasingly shaping Europeans’ security environment, while other security threats are also on the rise, from terrorism and cyber attacks to climate change
Podcasts
Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Puglierin and Pawel Zerka to analyse the results of the latest polling report
The European Sovereignty Index #FactsThatMatter
How can the EU and member states close the gap between ambition and capability in their quest for European sovereignty?
How migration became a weapon: the Belarus-Polish border crisis
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
The strike back against economic blackmail
In what circumstances should an Anti-Coercion Tool be triggered? What kind of countermeasures could protect Europe, keep markets open and support a functional global trade order?
Can the Frugals transform the EU?
The geopolitical grouping known as the “frugal four” — Austria, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands — has emerged as a key power centre in this year’s negotiations over the EU’s next budget and the covid-19 recovery fund. Does “frugality” actually reflect the public sentiment in those countries?
Where there’s a will, there’s a way: France, Germany and EU coalition building
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard presents the new and third edition of ECFR´s Coalition explorer, which also included special questions regarding the impact of…
Corona Angst – How the virus puts the European Project and globalisation at risk
Recently declared a global pandemic, it is undeniable that the coronavirus will be a global political, social, financial and economic crisis – requiring actions that…
You better bring a book – the start of the EU’s lengthy budget talks
Negotiations over the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2021 – 2027 just have started. But as tensions and divergences between the EU member states are…
Key takeaways from the European elections 2019
This week, Ulrike Franke is filling in for the regular host Mark Leonard to discuss the stories behind the media headlines in the aftermath of…
Ce que veulent les citoyens européens : un bilan des élections européennes
Podcast de notre BCM du 28 mai « Ce que veulent les citoyens européens : un bilan des élections européennes » en présence…
Events
24 Apr
The quest for Strategic Interdependence: What does Brazil think?
This event will delve into EU-Brazil long-standing partnership and the views of Brazil and Brazilians on international relations and foreign policy debates
23 May
Russia’s war in Ukraine as a challenge to European values
“When Russia invaded, it wasn’t just Ukraine being tested”, President Joe Biden declared during his visit to Warsaw in February. He was right in recognising…
24 Nov
Stronger together: From piecemeal energy deals toward a sustainable European energy policy
In this virtual launch event, we will present ECFR’s brand-new online tool, the Energy Deal tracker, and discuss the need for a more coordinated European energy and climate strategy
12 May
Shape of the union: European sentiment in light of war and pandemic
The European Council on Foreign Relations, the European Cultural Foundation and Le Grand Continent are delighted to invite you to a panel discussion dedicated to the key political dilemmas that the EU is facing in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine
23 Jun
Anti-Coercion Instrument: How the EU can counter sanctions, boycotts and economic blackmailing
This event is the second webinar in a two-part series on current developments in the global use of economic coercion
17 Jun
Trapped in an age of economic coercion – How can the EU effectively navigate it?
This event is the first webinar in a two-part series on current developments in the global use of economic coercion
3 Dec
Comment les opinions publiques influencent-elles la politique étrangère ?
L’ECFR a le plaisir de vous inviter à une discussion virtuelle sur l’opinion publique et la politique étrangère
In the media
Paweł Zerka on the latest ECFR report
Young Europeans, as well as Europe’s non-white and Muslim inhabitants, have good reasons to feel “voiceless” and disenfranchised, given their limited representation in the politics of the EU
Pawel Zerka on the European Sentiment in 2024
Paweł Zerka on the new government of Michel Barnier
If Le Pen wins the election, France’s best champagne will be drunk in Russia
Celia Belin and Pawel Zerka analyze the potential impact of the far-right results in the French elections on Europe’s security
Once Macron is no longer president, it will be very difficult for his political movement to survive. Apart from Macron, it does not have so many recognisable senior figures to drive the party alive
Pawel Zerka on the future of Macron after the snap election and rise of the far right