Guns and butter: How to keep Europeans on board with higher defence spending
European policymakers face a tough task. While boosting defence spending, they also need to tailor their communication strategies to keep their national publics onside
Experts & Staff
Pawel Zerka
Senior policy fellow
Areas of expertise
Public opinion on foreign affairs
Languages
English, French, Spanish and Polish
Biography
Pawel Zerka is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
As the European Council on Foreign Relations’ lead analyst on public opinion, Pawel Zerka spearheads the organisation’s polling and data research on foreign affairs. His other areas of study include global trade policy, Latin American politics, as well as Poland’s and France’s role in the European Union. Based in the Paris office, Zerka has been part of the ECFR team since 2017, having worked previously as a foreign policy expert in Poland. He holds a PhD in economics and an MA in international relations from the Warsaw School of Economics.
Slip of Le Pen: How the conviction of the French politician will fuel Europe’s far right
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Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump
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Publications
Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump
A new ECFR poll points to Europeans’ widespread (but not universal) reassessment of the transatlantic relationship, and extensive opportunities for the new US president to divide them if they do not work together
Brazil: Europe’s bridge to the global south
Brazil and Europe share many similarities: both seek autonomy amid escalating US-China tensions – while championing multilateralism and navigating democratic pressures for a values-based foreign policy. However, their potential for collaboration remains largely untapped
Welcome to Barbieland: European sentiment in the year of wars and elections
Like the titular character in the movie “Barbie”, the EU is prone to regarding itself as more perfect than it really is. This year’s European Sentiment Compass lays bare the EU’s blind spots – and explains why ignoring them could have long-term repercussions for democracy inside the bloc
Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world
European citizens are adapting slowly to the new geopolitical landscape. But leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus on Europe’s approach to China, the US, and Russia
Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public
Russia’s war on Ukraine is a test of European values. The way European governments respond is critical for European sentiment, unity, and solidarity with Ukraine
Tough trade: The hidden costs of economic coercion
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
Measured response: How to design a European instrument against economic coercion
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The transformative five: A new role for the frugal states after the EU recovery deal
The reputation of Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and Sweden as ‘frugal states’ does not reflect public sentiment in these countries
Defending Europe’s Economic Sovereignty: new ways to resist economic coercion
The EU should move quickly to consider and adopt a suite of tools to protect and enhance European sovereignty in the geo-economic sphere
Articles
Guns and butter: How to keep Europeans on board with higher defence spending
European policymakers face a tough task. While boosting defence spending, they also need to tailor their communication strategies to keep their national publics onside
Slip of Le Pen: How the conviction of the French politician will fuel Europe’s far right
The sentencing of far-right politician Marine Le Pen for embezzling EU funds will not only change the 2027 race for the French presidency. It also risks emboldening anti-establishment narratives across Europe and the US
Behind the times: Waiting for the Polish Zeitenwende
The United States’ new attitude to European security undercuts Poland’s long-held Atlanticism—meaning Warsaw must surely recalibrate its own policy
Keeping Paris in: How Europeans should respond to France’s political turmoil
French prime minister Michel Barnier has been ousted following a vote of no confidence. European governments need to demonstrate that, despite France’s internal political turmoil, they maintain a united front in foreign and security policy
European Sentiment on a ballot: What the European Parliament election will reveal about the EU’s future
The meaning of the European Parliament election result lies not just in voter intention and turnout, but is also deeply linked with the participation of young Europeans
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Specials
Multilateral Matchmaker
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EU Energy Deals Tracker
The energy deals the EU and its member states are now making with third countries will shape Europeans’ ability to protect their energy security in the long term. The EU Energy Deals Tracker provides a comprehensive overview of these agreements, including their implications for the sustainable transition
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
The European Sentiment Compass 2022
In the wake of pandemic and war, the Sentiment Compass assesses the changing expectations of the EU across its member states. It finds that EU should harness the power of culture and the free media to nurture a stronger European sentiment – helping it to address the major challenges facing the continent
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
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Podcasts
Brazil’s role in a changing world order
Mark Leonard welcomes José Ignacio Torreblanca and Pawel Zerka to discuss Brazil’s role in a changing world order
Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Puglierin and Pawel Zerka to analyse the results of the latest polling report
The European Sovereignty Index #FactsThatMatter
How can the EU and member states close the gap between ambition and capability in their quest for European sovereignty?
How migration became a weapon: the Belarus-Polish border crisis
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
The strike back against economic blackmail
In what circumstances should an Anti-Coercion Tool be triggered? What kind of countermeasures could protect Europe, keep markets open and support a functional global trade order?
Can the Frugals transform the EU?
The geopolitical grouping known as the “frugal four” — Austria, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands — has emerged as a key power centre in this year’s negotiations over the EU’s next budget and the covid-19 recovery fund. Does “frugality” actually reflect the public sentiment in those countries?
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Negotiations over the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2021 – 2027 just have started. But as tensions and divergences between the EU member states are…
Key takeaways from the European elections 2019
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Events
12 Feb
European views on a second Trump presidency: Time for pragmatism
The re-election of President Trump sent shockwaves across Europe and around the world. From a global perspective, Europeans are seemingly alone…
22 Nov
Samba Steps: Understanding Brazil’s global role and what it means for Europe
As global power dynamics shift amid intensifying US-China rivalry, the rise of assertive middle powers, and increased scepticism toward the international rules-based order, Europe finds…
24 Apr
The quest for Strategic Interdependence: What does Brazil think?
This event will delve into EU-Brazil long-standing partnership and the views of Brazil and Brazilians on international relations and foreign policy debates
23 May
Russia’s war in Ukraine as a challenge to European values
“When Russia invaded, it wasn’t just Ukraine being tested”, President Joe Biden declared during his visit to Warsaw in February. He was right in recognising…
24 Nov
Stronger together: From piecemeal energy deals toward a sustainable European energy policy
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12 May
Shape of the union: European sentiment in light of war and pandemic
The European Council on Foreign Relations, the European Cultural Foundation and Le Grand Continent are delighted to invite you to a panel discussion dedicated to the key political dilemmas that the EU is facing in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine
23 Jun
Anti-Coercion Instrument: How the EU can counter sanctions, boycotts and economic blackmailing
This event is the second webinar in a two-part series on current developments in the global use of economic coercion
17 Jun
Trapped in an age of economic coercion – How can the EU effectively navigate it?
This event is the first webinar in a two-part series on current developments in the global use of economic coercion
3 Dec
Comment les opinions publiques influencent-elles la politique étrangère ?
L’ECFR a le plaisir de vous inviter à une discussion virtuelle sur l’opinion publique et la politique étrangère
In the media
Pawel Zerka on Le Pen undermining the trust of citizens in the judicial system
Pawel Zerka on european leader’s blindspot’s
Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli, and Pawel Zerka on the state of the transatlantic relationship
Pawel Zerka on ECFR’s latest polling report
In his op-ed, Pawel Zerka discusses the findings of ECFR´s new polling on transatlantic relations