Senior policy fellow
Public opinion on foreign affairs
English, French, Spanish and Polish
Pawel Zerka is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
As the European Council on Foreign Relations’ lead analyst on public opinion, Pawel Zerka spearheads the organisation’s polling and data research on foreign affairs. His other areas of study include global trade policy, Latin American politics, as well as Poland’s and France’s role in the European Union. Based in the Paris office, Zerka has been part of the ECFR team since 2017, having worked previously as a foreign policy expert in Poland. He holds a PhD in economics and an MA in international relations from the Warsaw School of Economics.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski promises the ‘Polish model of the welfare state’ and social protection like in the West – but if his party stays in power after the October 13 election, the country will drift further away from its hard-won freedoms and connections with Europe
Polling on the upcoming election in Poland reflects a society often at odds with the ruling party. This is the election broken down by numbers
Trade policy is set to become one of the key tools of Ursula von der Leyen’s “union that strives for more”. But securing support from national governments and European citizens will be a challenge
Seven key challenges lie ahead of von der Leyen who will have to invent a magic formula to solve the political puzzles of the European Union
Emigration is as much a worry for some European citizens as immigration, if not more so. What should the EU and member states do about this?
The results of the European election confront EU leaders with a considerable challenge: navigating a new, more fragmented, and polarised political environment
This week, Ulrike Franke is filling in for the regular host Mark Leonard to discuss the stories behind the media headlines in the aftermath of…
Podcast de notre BCM du 28 mai « Ce que veulent les citoyens européens : un bilan des élections européennes » en présence…
There are three reasons why pro-European parties should appeal to youth voters
The EU has taken constructive steps to address the crisis in Venezuela, but the lack of a common European position could threaten progress towards a peaceful transition of power.
In today’s transatlantic relationship, Europe’s every concession on policy plays into Trump’s culture war—feeding an image of European weakness
A new ECFR poll points to Europeans’ widespread (but not universal) reassessment of the transatlantic relationship, and extensive opportunities for the new US president to divide them if they do not work together
Brazil and Europe share many similarities: both seek autonomy amid escalating US-China tensions – while championing multilateralism and navigating democratic pressures for a values-based foreign policy. However, their potential for collaboration remains largely untapped
Like the titular character in the movie “Barbie”, the EU is prone to regarding itself as more perfect than it really is. This year’s European Sentiment Compass lays bare the EU’s blind spots – and explains why ignoring them could have long-term repercussions for democracy inside the bloc
European citizens are adapting slowly to the new geopolitical landscape. But leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus on Europe’s approach to China, the US, and Russia
Russia’s war on Ukraine is a test of European values. The way European governments respond is critical for European sentiment, unity, and solidarity with Ukraine
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
The anti-coercion instrument needs to enable countermeasures that are both effective and credible; if it does not, this could carry more risks than benefits
The pandemic poses a threat to European cohesion by increasing economic divides and undermining trust in the EU and national governments
The reputation of Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and Sweden as ‘frugal states’ does not reflect public sentiment in these countries
The US National Security Strategy 2025 is little more than a guide to Trump’s culture war with Europe. EU member states and institutions, and its political parties and populations, need to resist America’s pernicious influence
By presenting Kirk as a martyr killed by “leftist hate”, conservative leaders across the Atlantic can reaffirm their core narrative: that they are victims, persecuted and silenced by liberal elites
The EU’s external image depends more on history than public relations. To improve it, European leaders need to make sure the history of the future reflects their values
European sentiment, tested by external threats and internal doubts, is finding new life in the Trump era: not in grand declarations, but in a slow, stubborn commitment to endure and move forward
European policymakers face a tough task. While boosting defence spending, they also need to tailor their communication strategies to keep their national publics onside
The sentencing of far-right politician Marine Le Pen for embezzling EU funds will not only change the 2027 race for the French presidency. It also risks emboldening anti-establishment narratives across Europe and the US
The United States’ new attitude to European security undercuts Poland’s long-held Atlanticism—meaning Warsaw must surely recalibrate its own policy
French prime minister Michel Barnier has been ousted following a vote of no confidence. European governments need to demonstrate that, despite France’s internal political turmoil, they maintain a united front in foreign and security policy
The meaning of the European Parliament election result lies not just in voter intention and turnout, but is also deeply linked with the participation of young Europeans
Poland is making its return to Europe – but Warsaw’s partners may still need to be a little patient yet
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
The energy deals the EU and its member states are now making with third countries will shape Europeans’ ability to protect their energy security in the long term. The EU Energy Deals Tracker provides a comprehensive overview of these agreements, including their implications for the sustainable transition
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
In the wake of pandemic and war, the Sentiment Compass assesses the changing expectations of the EU across its member states. It finds that EU should harness the power of culture and the free media to nurture a stronger European sentiment – helping it to address the major challenges facing the continent
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Summary With anti-Europeans on their way to winning more than one-third of seats in the next European Parliament, the stakes in the May 2019 election…
Great power competition is increasingly shaping Europeans’ security environment, while other security threats are also on the rise, from terrorism and cyber attacks to climate change
Mark Leonard welcomes José Ignacio Torreblanca and Pawel Zerka to discuss Brazil’s role in a changing world order
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Puglierin and Pawel Zerka to analyse the results of the latest polling report
How can the EU and member states close the gap between ambition and capability in their quest for European sovereignty?
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
In what circumstances should an Anti-Coercion Tool be triggered? What kind of countermeasures could protect Europe, keep markets open and support a functional global trade order?
The geopolitical grouping known as the “frugal four” — Austria, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands — has emerged as a key power centre in this year’s negotiations over the EU’s next budget and the covid-19 recovery fund. Does “frugality” actually reflect the public sentiment in those countries?
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard presents the new and third edition of ECFR´s Coalition explorer, which also included special questions regarding the impact of…
Recently declared a global pandemic, it is undeniable that the coronavirus will be a global political, social, financial and economic crisis – requiring actions that…
Negotiations over the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2021 – 2027 just have started. But as tensions and divergences between the EU member states are…
This week, Ulrike Franke is filling in for the regular host Mark Leonard to discuss the stories behind the media headlines in the aftermath of…
This high-level event, co-hosted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, will explore challenges facing Europe and the world amidst President Trump’s return to office, drawing on ECFR’s latest research and insights from distinguished policy-makers, analysts, academics and thought leaders as well as the cultural sector
The re-election of President Trump sent shockwaves across Europe and around the world. From a global perspective, Europeans are seemingly alone in their pessimism about a second Trump mandate compared to people in other countries around the world. But what does the picture look like if we zoom-in on Europe? This…
As global power dynamics shift amid intensifying US-China rivalry, the rise of assertive middle powers, and increased scepticism toward the international rules-based order, Europe finds itself navigating new challenges in securing its global position. To avoid being drawn into a new Cold War dynamic, Europe must seek partnerships with emerging powers, especially those shaping the…
This event will delve into EU-Brazil long-standing partnership and the views of Brazil and Brazilians on international relations and foreign policy debates
“When Russia invaded, it wasn’t just Ukraine being tested”, President Joe Biden declared during his visit to Warsaw in February. He was right in recognising the major implications this war has for the world – but he was wrong to suggest these implications are broadly similar for Europe, America, and other democracies. Given the everlasting…
In this virtual launch event, we will present ECFR’s brand-new online tool, the Energy Deal tracker, and discuss the need for a more coordinated European energy and climate strategy
The European Council on Foreign Relations, the European Cultural Foundation and Le Grand Continent are delighted to invite you to a panel discussion dedicated to the key political dilemmas that the EU is facing in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine
This event is the second webinar in a two-part series on current developments in the global use of economic coercion
This event is the first webinar in a two-part series on current developments in the global use of economic coercion
L’ECFR a le plaisir de vous inviter à une discussion virtuelle sur l’opinion publique et la politique étrangère
Pawel Zerka on the US’s culture war with Europe and its amicable approach toward Middle Eastern states
Paweł Zerka on how Europe and Poland should prepare for Donald Trump’s policies
Pawel Zerka on the European Sentiment Report
Pawel Zerka and André Wilkens on how the EU is undermining itself
Pawel Zerka on Trump’s inspirational role for Europe’s New Right
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