Where there’s a will, there’s a way: France, Germany and EU coalition building
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard presents the new and third edition of ECFR´s Coalition explorer, which also included special questions regarding the impact of…
Experts & Staff
Pawel Zerka
Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
European public opinion, economic sovereignty, Poland and France in the EU
Languages
English, French, Spanish and Polish
Biography
Pawel Zerka is a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
He is a lead ECFR analyst on European public opinion. He contributes to ECFR’s Re:shape Global Europe project, which seeks to develop new strategies for Europeans to understand and engage with the changing international order. Pawel is also engaged in discussions about Europe’s economic statecraft, and he works on Polish and European foreign policy. Based at ECFR’s Paris office, he has been part of the team since August 2017.
Previously, Zerka worked as expert and head of programmes at two leading Polish think tanks, demosEUROPA-Centre for European Strategy and WiseEuropa. Zerka holds a PhD in economics and a master’s degree in international relations from the Warsaw School of Economics, having also studied at SciencesPo Bordeaux and Universidad de Buenos Aires.
Poland under Duda: A divided country, dividing Europe
The Law and Justice party has consolidated its power inside Poland by retaining the presidency – but battles with Brussels and a victory for Biden could cause it trouble
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
In sickness and in health: European cooperation during the coronavirus crisis
ECFR research into how EU member states and institutions worked together at the height of covid-19 confirms Germany was the bloc’s undisputed crisis leader
Together in trauma: Europeans and the world after covid-19
A new survey shows that, after the onset of the covid-19 crisis, there has been a rise in public support for unified EU action to tackle global threats
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Poland’s presidential election: Political chaos and divides on Europe
Polish voters are strongly divided on European issues. An unfair election could intensify these disagreements, threatening to turn Poland into an increasingly problematic partner for other EU member states.
Corona Angst – How the virus puts the European Project and globalisation at risk
Recently declared a global pandemic, it is undeniable that the coronavirus will be a global political, social, financial and economic crisis – requiring actions that…
Europe and the virus: The battle of narratives
The advent of coronavirus has set off a battle of narratives about the role of the EU. The winner will define Europe’s future.
Ill will: Populism and the coronavirus
Sooner or later, the coronavirus will be gone. In the meantime, it will test Europe’s resilience against not just epidemics but misinformation and scapegoating.
Publications
Tough trade: The hidden costs of economic coercion
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
Measured response: How to design a European instrument against economic coercion
The anti-coercion instrument needs to enable countermeasures that are both effective and credible; if it does not, this could carry more risks than benefits
The crisis that made the European Union: European cohesion in the age of covid
The pandemic poses a threat to European cohesion by increasing economic divides and undermining trust in the EU and national governments
The transformative five: A new role for the frugal states after the EU recovery deal
The reputation of Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and Sweden as ‘frugal states’ does not reflect public sentiment in these countries
Defending Europe’s Economic Sovereignty: new ways to resist economic coercion
The EU should move quickly to consider and adopt a suite of tools to protect and enhance European sovereignty in the geo-economic sphere
In sickness and in health: European cooperation during the coronavirus crisis
ECFR research into how EU member states and institutions worked together at the height of covid-19 confirms Germany was the bloc’s undisputed crisis leader
Together in trauma: Europeans and the world after covid-19
A new survey shows that, after the onset of the covid-19 crisis, there has been a rise in public support for unified EU action to tackle global threats
How to govern a fragmented EU: What Europeans said at the ballot box
The results of the European election confront EU leaders with a considerable challenge: navigating a new, more fragmented, and polarised political environment
Keeping Europe safe after Brexit
The context Now is not the moment for either the European Union or the United Kingdom to risk allowing the political tensions around Brexit to…
Articles
Tracking Europe’s energy security: Four lessons from the EU’s new energy deals
The EU and its member states have taken unprecedented steps to reduce their dependence on Russian energy resources. ECFR’s new EU Energy Deals Tracker documents Europeans’ agreements with new suppliers – and highlights four key lessons for policymakers
The case for defence: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has proved France right
Old stereotypes about France’s position on Russia were not wholly unjustified. But in 2022, Paris’s actions and words merit greater attention from other EU capitals long suspicious of French motives
Running on empty: How trust among EU states can survive the energy crisis
Member states’ reactions to the energy crisis could endanger European unity. A mature political response would help the bloc stay united through the coming winter.
The power of interdependence: Europe’s under-rated influence over Russia
Europeans are understandably eager to cut off all channels of Russian influence over their continent, especially in energy. But this interdependence has also allowed them to push back against Russian aggression.
Summer resolution: How to sustain public support for Ukraine
The holiday period could erode public interest in Ukraine. Europeans should recognise that their attitudes towards Russia’s war on the country have consequences.
The traveller’s guide to European economic sovereignty
Europeans have set out on a journey towards greater economic sovereignty. They will only reach their destination if they learn to navigate an interconnected world.
Image rites: Poland’s new role in Europe
Warsaw is in a uniquely strong position to launch an ambitious initiative for the EU’s eastern neighbourhood. To do this, it will need to use its new image in Europe to good effect.
Europe’s Russian energy dilemma
The EU should adopt a phased approach to energy sanctions on Russia. This would be more effective than a rushed embargo and would help preserve European unity.
War in Ukraine: A resilience test for European solidarity
Europe has been united in its solidarity with Ukraine. To ensure this continues, the EU needs to support member states through the challenging times ahead and shield them from actors who may wish to sow discord.
Economic arm-twisting is on the rise. Europe must learn how to resist it
Protectionism is not the answer. European countries must build public support for strategic openness.
Specials
EU Energy Deals Tracker
The energy deals the EU and its member states are now making with third countries will shape Europeans’ ability to protect their energy security in the long term. The EU Energy Deals Tracker provides a comprehensive overview of these agreements, including their implications for the sustainable transition.
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act.
The European Sentiment Compass 2022
In the wake of pandemic and war, the Sentiment Compass assesses the changing expectations of the EU across its member states. It finds that EU should harness the power of culture and the free media to nurture a stronger European sentiment – helping it to address the major challenges facing the continent.
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU.
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
The 2019 European election: How anti-Europeans plan to wreck Europe and what can be done to stop it
Summary With anti-Europeans on their way to winning more than one-third of seats in the next European Parliament, the stakes in the May 2019 election…
The nightmare of the dark: The security fears that keep Europeans awake at night
Great power competition is increasingly shaping Europeans’ security environment, while other security threats are also on the rise, from terrorism and cyber attacks to climate change
Podcasts
The European Sovereignty Index #FactsThatMatter
How can the EU and member states close the gap between ambition and capability in their quest for European sovereignty?
How migration became a weapon: the Belarus-Polish border crisis
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
The strike back against economic blackmail
In what circumstances should an Anti-Coercion Tool be triggered? What kind of countermeasures could protect Europe, keep markets open and support a functional global trade order?
Can the Frugals transform the EU?
The geopolitical grouping known as the “frugal four” — Austria, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands — has emerged as a key power centre in this year’s negotiations over the EU’s next budget and the covid-19 recovery fund. Does “frugality” actually reflect the public sentiment in those countries?
Where there’s a will, there’s a way: France, Germany and EU coalition building
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard presents the new and third edition of ECFR´s Coalition explorer, which also included special questions regarding the impact of…
Corona Angst – How the virus puts the European Project and globalisation at risk
Recently declared a global pandemic, it is undeniable that the coronavirus will be a global political, social, financial and economic crisis – requiring actions that…
You better bring a book – the start of the EU’s lengthy budget talks
Negotiations over the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2021 – 2027 just have started. But as tensions and divergences between the EU member states are…
Key takeaways from the European elections 2019
This week, Ulrike Franke is filling in for the regular host Mark Leonard to discuss the stories behind the media headlines in the aftermath of…
Ce que veulent les citoyens européens : un bilan des élections européennes
Podcast de notre BCM du 28 mai « Ce que veulent les citoyens européens : un bilan des élections européennes » en présence…
EU Elections: Could anti-Europe parties wreck the EU from within?
Mark Leonard speaks with Susi Dennison, director of ECFR’s European Power programme, and Pawel Zerka, programme coordinator for European Power, about the upcoming European Parliament…
Events
24 Nov
Stronger together: From piecemeal energy deals toward a sustainable European energy policy
In this virtual launch event, we will present ECFR’s brand-new online tool, the Energy Deal tracker, and discuss the need for a more coordinated European energy and climate strategy
12 May
Shape of the union: European sentiment in light of war and pandemic
The European Council on Foreign Relations, the European Cultural Foundation and Le Grand Continent are delighted to invite you to a panel discussion dedicated to the key political dilemmas that the EU is facing in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine
23 Jun
Anti-Coercion Instrument: How the EU can counter sanctions, boycotts and economic blackmailing
This event is the second webinar in a two-part series on current developments in the global use of economic coercion
17 Jun
Trapped in an age of economic coercion – How can the EU effectively navigate it?
This event is the first webinar in a two-part series on current developments in the global use of economic coercion
3 Dec
Comment les opinions publiques influencent-elles la politique étrangère ?
L’ECFR a le plaisir de vous inviter à une discussion virtuelle sur l’opinion publique et la politique étrangère
In the media
Pawel Zerka was cited in l’Echo on the subject of the five most impactful elections in 2023
Even if US support for Ukraine remains as strong as it is now, Europe will have to get much more involved, especially in terms of financial and military aid
Pawel Zerka on what Europeans will do if the US changes its support for Kiev
The coming winter could freeze and shatter European sentiment — the shared sense of belonging, mutual trust among European countries, and citizens’ emotional attachment to the idea of Europe
The ability to find a joint exit strategy from the energy crisis could have a direct impact on the bloc’s future, says Pawel Zerka
The coming winter could freeze and shatter European sentiment — the shared sense of belonging, mutual trust among European countries, and citizens’ emotional attachment to the idea of Europe
Pawel Zerka comments on how the energy crisis might impact European unity
The Commission can have its plans, but of course it has to react to reality. And reality has been very dynamic in the last twelve months
Pawel Zerka comments on von der Leyen’s State of the Union 2022 speech