For two decades the United Arab Emirates has built its influence on connectivity: ports, air links, finance and data centres that made Abu Dhabi and Dubai difficult to bypass. The 2026 war with Iran has tested that model harder than anything before it. By the ceasefire in April, Emirati air defences had engaged more…
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the latest phase of the US-Iran conflict, the escalating economic pressure campaign against Tehran and the risks of a prolonged war without a clear exit strategy
Social movements in North Africa increasingly focus on environmental concerns and the impact of climate change. Europeans must ensure their cooperation with governments in the region does not end up adding to activists’ grievances
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt to discuss the prospects for a Gaza ceasefire, escalating settler violence in the West Bank and how Israel’s upcoming general election could shape the future of the conflict
By failing to show solidarity with a member state under pressure, the EU is encouraging Morocco and others to keep using migration as a tool of coercion
As the Houthis attack Saudi ships and infrastructure, Riyadh faces an increasingly difficult choice: absorb the blows to stay out of the Iran war or retaliate and risk a dangerous escalation
Ellie Geranmayeh is joined by Alia Moubayed, Randa Slim and Maha Yahya to discuss what the trilateral framework deal signed by Israel, the US and Lebanon means for the Lebanese stability
Europe’s energy, industrial and migration interests all converge in its southern neighbourhood, where rivals are eroding its influence. The new Pact for the Mediterranean can reverse this, but only if Brussels puts grand bargains on the table
Chinese electric vehicle brands are adapting to Western trade barriers by increasing their presence in the Middle East and North Africa. Europe’s response must go beyond merely closing the loopholes
Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate governance and keep Palestinian self-determination alive
The ethos of the EU’s “Pact for the Mediterranean” could help revitalise cooperation on clean energy with Tunisia—but only if Europeans learn how to better factor in the country’s politics
European credibility to uphold human rights in the Middle East has faded, but the EU can still have an impact by backing social and economic rights, empowering people through reform
A European-backed UN body explored mass graves in Iraq between 2018 and 2024, supporting steps towards justice and reconciliation—and providing wider lessons for the region
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
Social movements in North Africa increasingly focus on environmental concerns and the impact of climate change. Europeans must ensure their cooperation with governments in the region does not end up adding to activists’ grievances
By failing to show solidarity with a member state under pressure, the EU is encouraging Morocco and others to keep using migration as a tool of coercion
As the Houthis attack Saudi ships and infrastructure, Riyadh faces an increasingly difficult choice: absorb the blows to stay out of the Iran war or retaliate and risk a dangerous escalation
Israel is accelerating its settler project and deepening conflict, frustrating many EU member states. The bloc should use its trade and financial tools to impose costs and secure a future for Palestinians
The Iran war has exposed the limits of an economic corridor built for peacetime. Europeans should rethink the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor for a region where trade routes are now strategic targets
Iran’s attacks on the Gulf have convinced Abu Dhabi that accommodation with Tehran has failed. Leaving OPEC reflects the UAE’s turn towards strategic autonomy, harder security alliances and a regional order less constrained by old consensuses
America and Israel have bombed Iran since 2025 to block Tehran’s path to nuclear weapons. ECFR’s interactive dashboard, updated monthly, assesses current evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities to determine which of six possible scenarios is most likely
This ECFR project maps the Red Sea region as a nexus of conflict, regional rivalries and global power plays. To address the risks of this instability, Europeans need to develop a more comprehensive approach
The conversation around achieving peace and prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa needs to become more inclusive and diverse, through an injection of fresh ideas and perspectives from regional voices
European states face accusations of neglecting the matter of human rights in their southern neighbourhood, and even of being complicit. Yet they are failing to maximise the influence they could bring to bear
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco, John V. Bowlus, Hugh Lovatt, Tarek Megerisi, Michaël Tanchum
Special
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Julien Barnes-Dacey, Anthony Dworkin, Ellie Geranmayeh, Hugh Lovatt, Tarek Megerisi, René Wildangel
Special
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
ECFR’s Differentiation Tracker provides a snapshot of third state relations with Israel – and the extent to which these contain a clearly defined territorial definition that explicitly excludes Israeli settlements constructed on occupied territory in line with UNSCR 2334
Violence is tearing Mali and the Sahel apart. But who are the armed groups behind the bloodshed? Where are international actors stationed in the region? And what motivates them all?
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the latest phase of the US-Iran conflict, the escalating economic pressure campaign against Tehran and the risks of a prolonged war without a clear exit strategy
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt to discuss the prospects for a Gaza ceasefire, escalating settler violence in the West Bank and how Israel’s upcoming general election could shape the future of the conflict
Ellie Geranmayeh is joined by Alia Moubayed, Randa Slim and Maha Yahya to discuss what the trilateral framework deal signed by Israel, the US and Lebanon means for the Lebanese stability
Julien Barnes-Dacey welcomes Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud to discuss how the recently inked US-Iran deal could deliver a more stable regional order
Mark Leonard, Kelsey Davenport and Ellie Geranmayeh introduce ECFR’s Iran nuclear monitor, and discuss the key risks and scenarios associated with Iran’s current nuclear capacity
Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş to explore the recent Iran-US ceasefire, regional conflicts, and implications for Europe and global security
Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Aziz Alghashian, Eran Etzion and Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the implications of a prolonged war in the Middle East and possible ceasefire scenarios
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
For two decades the United Arab Emirates has built its influence on connectivity: ports, air links, finance and data centres that made Abu Dhabi and Dubai difficult to bypass. The 2026 war with Iran has tested that model harder than anything before it. By the ceasefire in April, Emirati air defences had engaged more…
La chiusura dello Stretto di Hormuz ha posto l’Europa di fronte a una doppia sfida: ripensare la transizione energetica in un contesto di forte incertezza sugli idrocarburi e sviluppare nuove rotte di connettività per ridurre la vulnerabilità a shock geopolitici. Tra i temi al centro del confronto: l’elettrificazione come pilastro necessario ma non sufficiente,…
L’Ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in cooperazione con il Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale, ha organizzato lo scenario game “Which MENA Region in 2030?” a Roma l’11 giugno 2026, presso gli Uffici del MAECI. L’evento ha proposto due esercizi di scenario ambientati al 2030,…
La oficina de Madrid de ECFR reunió a periodistas especializados en un media briefing con Ellie Geranmayeh sobre el programa nuclear iraní y el panel interactivo «Iran Nuclear Monitor: Month by Month»
Edison, Via del Quirinale 26, 00187 Roma
·ECFR Rome
La Commissione europea ha recentemente presentato il nuovo Patto per il Mediterraneo, con l’obiettivo di rilanciare la cooperazione politica, economica e di sicurezza con i Paesi partner del Mediterraneo meridionale, e ha rinnovato il suo impegno nella promozione di partenariati strategici in geografie chiave attraverso il Global Gateway. Parallelamente, negli ultimi mesi l’Italia ha intensificato…
Center for American Studies, Via Michelangelo Caetani 32, Rome, Italy
·ECFR Rome
As Africa becomes an increasingly central arena for Russia’s interests, the role of the United States and China is undergoing significant transformation. With Trump’s return to the White House, a broader US economic-military repositioning in Africa to contain external influences seems to occur, while Beijing continues to deepen its structural economic presence across the…
Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale, Piazzale della Farnesina, 1, 00135 Roma RM
·ECFR Rome
Nella sua edizione 2025, la quarta da quando il progetto è stato lanciato, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani think tanker italiani under-40 per elaborare ipotesi di scenario rilevanti per la politica estera e multilaterale italiana ed europea. Tale esercizio si pone come obiettivo la formulazione di raccomandazioni a supporto delle attività di…
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR è l ruolo degli Emirati Arabi Uniti in Africa. Mentre i leader europei riflettono sul futuro strategico dell’Unione Europea in un contesto di crescenti tensioni geopolitiche, un gruppo influente di potenze medie, che include paesi come India, Turchia e le monarchie del Golfo, sta assumendo…
Negli ultimi anni, la presenza della Russia in Africa è cresciuta significativamente, sia nel Nord Africa che nell’Africa Subsahariana, presentando una sfida strategica per l’Europa e, in particolare, per l’Italia. Mosca ha rafforzato la sua presenza nel continente attraverso una serie di accordi bilaterali, cooperazioni militari, e investimenti economici e nel settore energetico. Questo incremento di influenza è stato percepito come una mossa strategica per aumentare il suo peso globale e per contrastare l’influenza occidentale
Schuman area, Brussels. Address will be shared after registration.
Josep Borrell Fontelles is the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission. He was President of the European Parliament from 2004-2007 and Spain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation from 2018-2019. Abraham “Avrum” Burg is a former Knesset Speaker, author, peace activist and…
