Rival camps in Libya will likely sabotage political processes that could undermine them. The international community can head this off by harnessing protesters’ justified anger.
Middle East and North Africa
It is imperative that the European Union provide sustained support to key actors in Lebanon, working around the Lebanese state wherever possible
After a humiliating defeat at the UN Security Council, Washington will seek snapback sanctions to sabotage what is left of the nuclear deal. Britain, France, and Germany can still keep it alive until after the US election.
The Israel-UAE peace deal provides multiple wins for both countries, and for the US. But it could yet deepen the region’s political fault lines.
Human rights and international law should be a timeless part of addressing problems in Israel and Palestine, but the international community urgently needs to begin doing so once more
Europe should help the Kadhimi government undertake political and economic reform, increase its geopolitical autonomy, and take on a greater security role
The EU should look to its own history as it aims to secure its own interests and resolve tensions in the eastern Mediterranean
Europe needs a grand bargain with Turkey that can create a short- and longer-term conflict-resolution framework covering energy, maritime boundaries, the Cyprus conflict, and Libya
The more meekly the EU handles other powers’ aggressive tactics, the more they will be tempted to imitate each other in novel ways to ignore, challenge, and openly attack European interests
Iran’s rumoured talks with China on a partnership agreement could have significant economic benefits and provide it with valuable geopolitical bargaining chips