22 Nov
China’s views in today’s changing global order
With increased US-China competition likely to shape Trump’s second term, significant attention in Washington is focused on the primacists, prioritisers and restrainers vying to shape…
Asia
14 Nov
European policy towards India and the Indo-Pacific
Europe’s relations with India have mis-fired in the past, even as New Delhi has built a range of important new partnerships with major international players,…
14 Nov
Sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict scenario
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
Turmoil in Seoul: A potential setback for EU-South Korea security cooperation
The attempted imposition of martial law by President Yoon Suk-Yeol has plunged South Korea into political uncertainty. As Seoul’s immediate focus turns inward, its ability and willingness to tackle shared challenges with Europe may decline, from the war in Ukraine to Chinese economic coercion
When East meets West meets Trump’s America: European diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific
The return of Donald Trump could shake the fundamentals of US relationships in the Indo-Pacific. Here’s how Europeans should act
Carbon diplomacy: How Europe can steer China’s climate path
Beijing is poised to make a pivotal decision that will shape global climate action for decades to come and directly affect European climate safety
Pyongyang’s power play: How the EU should respond to North Korean troops in Russia
North Korea’s troop deployment to the Russian front represents a fundamental shift in Europe’s security relations with east Asia. To confront the Moscow-Pyongyang axis, the EU should deepen its partnership with South Korea
China’s trade challenges for the European economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to discuss EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the potential for future economic sanctions
From Brussels with leverage: How the EU is recalibrating its China strategy
By imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, the European Commission has turned a corner on its relations with Beijing. To push back against an emboldened Brussels, Beijing will have to change tactics
Triangle of opportunity: How improved relations between South Korea and Japan open doors for the EU
New Japanese prime minister Ishiba Shigeru has signaled a commitment to continuing his predecessor’s outreach to South Korea. Europe should seize the moment to tackle shared challenges with both countries
Publications
The idea of China
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
Trust and trade-offs: How to manage Europe’s green technology dependence on China
European policymakers need to answer the ‘trust question’ of how far they want Chinese companies involved in green industries such as solar energy, batteries, and electric vehicles
East meets middle: China’s blossoming relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE
China is strengthening its ties to the Gulf in areas well beyond the energy sector. The EU clearly has stakes in the region, but it should not try to directly counter China’s influence. It should instead build its own Gulf partnerships
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
The battle for the Indian Ocean: How the EU and India can strengthen maritime security
China is becoming increasingly assertive in the Indian Ocean. The EU and India should work together to support the smaller states of the region
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West
Circuit breakers: Securing Europe’s green energy supply chains
Europeans risk over-dependence on China for the green technologies needed to build the low-carbon economy of the future. They should take steps to reduce their exposure – while recognising they will have to work with Chinese suppliers in some instances
Let a thousand contacts bloom: How China competes for influence in Bulgaria
China is expanding its presence in Bulgaria through a strategy of engagement with state and non-state actors. This has concerning implications in areas such as technology transfer, critical infrastructure, and public procurement
What Europeans think about the US-China Cold War
A majority of European citizens believe a new cold war with both China and Russia is under way – but they mostly do not think that their own country is involved
Articles
Turmoil in Seoul: A potential setback for EU-South Korea security cooperation
The attempted imposition of martial law by President Yoon Suk-Yeol has plunged South Korea into political uncertainty. As Seoul’s immediate focus turns inward, its ability and willingness to tackle shared challenges with Europe may decline, from the war in Ukraine to Chinese economic coercion
When East meets West meets Trump’s America: European diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific
The return of Donald Trump could shake the fundamentals of US relationships in the Indo-Pacific. Here’s how Europeans should act
Carbon diplomacy: How Europe can steer China’s climate path
Beijing is poised to make a pivotal decision that will shape global climate action for decades to come and directly affect European climate safety
Pyongyang’s power play: How the EU should respond to North Korean troops in Russia
North Korea’s troop deployment to the Russian front represents a fundamental shift in Europe’s security relations with east Asia. To confront the Moscow-Pyongyang axis, the EU should deepen its partnership with South Korea
From Brussels with leverage: How the EU is recalibrating its China strategy
By imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, the European Commission has turned a corner on its relations with Beijing. To push back against an emboldened Brussels, Beijing will have to change tactics
Triangle of opportunity: How improved relations between South Korea and Japan open doors for the EU
New Japanese prime minister Ishiba Shigeru has signaled a commitment to continuing his predecessor’s outreach to South Korea. Europe should seize the moment to tackle shared challenges with both countries
Russia, Ukraine, and the two Koreas: How east Asian powers are influencing Europe’s security
Europeans should work to understand the threats from the North Korea-Russia relationship – and deepen their security partnership with South Korea
Forget the bear hug: India’s gradual turn from Russia, towards the West
India remains concerned with China above all. Western partners such as the US and the EU are much more useful to New Delhi than is Moscow
In the same boat: Why Taiwan is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
Based on the idea that Russia’s and China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policies are interrelated, Taipei is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
Ahead of the curve: Why the EU and US risk falling behind China in Latin America
As Beijing’s investment approach to Latin America focuses on industries of strategic importance, the EU and US will need to contend with growing Chinese competition
Specials
Mapping China’s rise in the Western Balkans
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas
Moving closer: European views of the Indo-Pacific
It will take more than just strong support from France, Germany, and the Netherlands to ensure that the new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific is effective in the long term
What does India think?
Indians are many, as are their demands, aspirations, and ideas
Podcasts
China’s trade challenges for the European economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to discuss EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the potential for future economic sanctions
In:Sight China with Yan Xuetong
Mark Leonard and Alicja Bachulska welcome Yan Xuetong to discuss China’s role in the new global order
The world after the West: Lynn Kuok on south-east Asia
South-east Asia is a culturally and geographically diverse region, notable for its proximity and economic ties to China. Though the political structure of the region’s…
The world after the West: Rana Mitter on China
In recent years, China has overtaken the United States as the largest trading partner of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Not only has…
China’s new ideas: People, power, progress
Mark Leonard welcomes Alicja Bachulska and Janka Oertel to discuss their latest book, “The Idea of China.”
The world after the West: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri on India
Mark Leonard welcomes to Pramit Pal Chaudhuri to discuss India as a middle power
The Great Firewall: How China regulates big tech
Mark Leonard welcomes Angela Zhang to discuss China’s Big Tech regulation
In:Sight China with Angela Zhang
Mark Leonard welcomes Angela Zhang to discuss China’s big tech regulation
The sweet spot: Between de-risking from China and Europe’s green future
Mark Leonard welcomes Robbie Diamond and Janka Oertel to discuss de-risking and the future of Europe’s green industries
High stakes in the strait: US -China competition and Taiwan’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch to discuss US-China competition and the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Events
22 Nov
China’s views in today’s changing global order
With increased US-China competition likely to shape Trump’s second term, significant attention in Washington is focused on the primacists, prioritisers and restrainers vying to shape…
14 Nov
European policy towards India and the Indo-Pacific
Europe’s relations with India have mis-fired in the past, even as New Delhi has built a range of important new partnerships with major international players,…
14 Nov
Sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict scenario
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
1 Oct
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
17 Jul
Transizione energetica, tecnologia e geopolitica: quali scenari strategici per Europa & Italia?
La sfida tecnologica posta dalla transizione energetica è un fattore dirimente di competizione tra gli attori internazionali, con implicazioni critiche sul futuro assetto geoeconomico globale, come reso evidente dalle tensioni nelle relazioni commerciali tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Unione Europea. Allo stesso tempo, la proiezione esterna degli attori internazionali e lo sforzo di costruzione di nuove partnership e collaborazioni sono meccanismi essenziali per lo sviluppo di catene del valore resilienti
20 Jun
How to Manage Europe’s Green Technology Dependence on China: A Black Coffee Morning
As the global landscape shifts towards strategic rivalry between China and the advanced industrial economies of the West, Europe finds itself at a crossroads, needing…
12 Jun
Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico
La discussione “Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico”, organizzata dall’ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ed ELEC – European League for Economic Cooperation, avrà luogo, in forma virtuale, mercoledì 12 giugno 2024 dalle ore 16:30 alle ore 18:00 sulla piattaforma Zoom
28 May
Connessioni infinite: Italia, Europa e progetto IMEC
L’IMEC è un progetto a lungo termine che richiede investimenti considerevoli e presenta notevoli ostacoli interni ed esterni. Ma il potenziale del corridoio di rafforzare i legami tra potenze diverse potrebbe rivelarsi prezioso in questo mondo frammentato e turbolento, con benefici geopolitici e geoeconomici per Europa ed i suoi partner
23 May
Il circolo dell’ECFR – Corridoio IMEC: prospettive per Italia ed UE
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzato sulle prospettive del corridoio IMEC come ponte economico tra Oriente ed Occidente
In the media
In her piece, Sarah Logan argues that Europe struggles to match China’s influence in Africa’s critical minerals sector
You have the worst of all worlds if you wait, but everyone is afraid to make the wrong move
Janka Oertel on the US tariffs and the impact they will have on Europe and the global markets
Alexander Lipke on the aftermath of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of martial law
Occupied with its domestic political crisis, South Korea will have limited resources to focus on foreign issues, with any increase in support for Ukraine now much less likely
Alexander Lipke on the consequences of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s announced and then retracted declaration of martial law
China learned that the West can get their act together on sanctions when they have to
Agathe Demarais on China studying Russia’s sanctions evasion to prepare for a Taiwan conflict