Tariffs, tensions, and trade: Trump’s gamble on China
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to examine the diverse perspectives on US-China relations and how Europe can navigate this changing geopolitical landscape
Asia
Multi-Pole-arity: How Poland can help Europe think big on China
Beijing’s economic policies are threatening European competitiveness and economic security at a time when Europe cannot afford to be vulnerable. Poland can use its growing leadership role in the EU to help guide the bloc’s response
14 Apr
Transatlantic Forum, 8th Edition – La competizione USA-Cina per la sicurezza tecnologica
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum vedrà il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra…
No time to drift: Trump, China, and the urgency of a stronger EU-Japan alignment
With an unpredictable US and a defiant China, the EU and Japan must deepen their alignment—fast. Strategic cooperation in defence, economic security and diplomacy is no longer optional; it’s essential to shaping, not just surviving, the new global order
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
Porcupine play: How Taiwan defends its democracy
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Janka Oertel to unpack Taiwan’s strategic calculus amid rising global tensions, and Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific
Europe’s Asian pivot: India and the quest for strategic autonomy
Mark Leonard welcomes Rudra Chowdhury, James Crabtree and Janka Oertel to unpack Europe’s relations with Asia in the age of Donald Trump
Polls, peril and partnership: Why South Korea and the EU are natural allies
South Koreans and Europeans agree that Russia is a threat, Ukraine needs support and that the new US administration is trouble. As Trump shakes the global security order, their shared concerns could solidify a stronger EU-South Korea partnership
4 Mar
CHINA-EU RELATIONS IN A TRUMPIAN WORLD
Si tratta del sesto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi…
In the wake of Trump: The EU’s chance to redefine its India relationship
As Ursula von der Leyen prepares to bring her team of European commissioners to New Delhi this week, she should seize the moment to deepen ties with her Indian counterparts. With Donald Trump in the White House, both the EU and India need closer friends elsewhere
Publications
Multi-Pole-arity: How Poland can help Europe think big on China
Beijing’s economic policies are threatening European competitiveness and economic security at a time when Europe cannot afford to be vulnerable. Poland can use its growing leadership role in the EU to help guide the bloc’s response
The idea of China
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
Trust and trade-offs: How to manage Europe’s green technology dependence on China
European policymakers need to answer the ‘trust question’ of how far they want Chinese companies involved in green industries such as solar energy, batteries, and electric vehicles
East meets middle: China’s blossoming relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE
China is strengthening its ties to the Gulf in areas well beyond the energy sector. The EU clearly has stakes in the region, but it should not try to directly counter China’s influence. It should instead build its own Gulf partnerships
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
The battle for the Indian Ocean: How the EU and India can strengthen maritime security
China is becoming increasingly assertive in the Indian Ocean. The EU and India should work together to support the smaller states of the region
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West
Circuit breakers: Securing Europe’s green energy supply chains
Europeans risk over-dependence on China for the green technologies needed to build the low-carbon economy of the future. They should take steps to reduce their exposure – while recognising they will have to work with Chinese suppliers in some instances
Let a thousand contacts bloom: How China competes for influence in Bulgaria
China is expanding its presence in Bulgaria through a strategy of engagement with state and non-state actors. This has concerning implications in areas such as technology transfer, critical infrastructure, and public procurement
Articles
No time to drift: Trump, China, and the urgency of a stronger EU-Japan alignment
With an unpredictable US and a defiant China, the EU and Japan must deepen their alignment—fast. Strategic cooperation in defence, economic security and diplomacy is no longer optional; it’s essential to shaping, not just surviving, the new global order
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
Polls, peril and partnership: Why South Korea and the EU are natural allies
South Koreans and Europeans agree that Russia is a threat, Ukraine needs support and that the new US administration is trouble. As Trump shakes the global security order, their shared concerns could solidify a stronger EU-South Korea partnership
In the wake of Trump: The EU’s chance to redefine its India relationship
As Ursula von der Leyen prepares to bring her team of European commissioners to New Delhi this week, she should seize the moment to deepen ties with her Indian counterparts. With Donald Trump in the White House, both the EU and India need closer friends elsewhere
Seek deeper: Signs of China’s changing strategy towards European societies
Activities by Huawei and the Chinese authorities in Bulgaria suggest a more elaborate and all-embracing approach to engaging society
Britain’s risky re-engagement: Why its China policy could strain the EU-UK reset
British chancellor Rachel Reeves’s visit to Beijing over the weekend shows the Labour government’s willingness to re-engage with China. But this strategy could strain Britain’s relationship with the EU
Turmoil in Seoul: A potential setback for EU-South Korea security cooperation
The attempted imposition of martial law by President Yoon Suk-Yeol has plunged South Korea into political uncertainty. As Seoul’s immediate focus turns inward, its ability and willingness to tackle shared challenges with Europe may decline, from the war in Ukraine to Chinese economic coercion
When East meets West meets Trump’s America: European diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific
The return of Donald Trump could shake the fundamentals of US relationships in the Indo-Pacific. Here’s how Europeans should act
Carbon diplomacy: How Europe can steer China’s climate path
Beijing is poised to make a pivotal decision that will shape global climate action for decades to come and directly affect European climate safety
Pyongyang’s power play: How the EU should respond to North Korean troops in Russia
North Korea’s troop deployment to the Russian front represents a fundamental shift in Europe’s security relations with east Asia. To confront the Moscow-Pyongyang axis, the EU should deepen its partnership with South Korea
Specials
Mapping China’s rise in the Western Balkans
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas
Moving closer: European views of the Indo-Pacific
It will take more than just strong support from France, Germany, and the Netherlands to ensure that the new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific is effective in the long term
What does India think?
Indians are many, as are their demands, aspirations, and ideas
Podcasts
Tariffs, tensions, and trade: Trump’s gamble on China
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to examine the diverse perspectives on US-China relations and how Europe can navigate this changing geopolitical landscape
Porcupine play: How Taiwan defends its democracy
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Janka Oertel to unpack Taiwan’s strategic calculus amid rising global tensions, and Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific
Europe’s Asian pivot: India and the quest for strategic autonomy
Mark Leonard welcomes Rudra Chowdhury, James Crabtree and Janka Oertel to unpack Europe’s relations with Asia in the age of Donald Trump
The China factor: Compete or double down?
Germany’s industrial model thrived for years thanks to soaring Chinese demand. But the relationship has recently become more contentious. This week, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana…
China’s trade challenges for the European economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to discuss EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the potential for future economic sanctions
In:Sight China with Yan Xuetong
Mark Leonard and Alicja Bachulska welcome Yan Xuetong to discuss China’s role in the new global order
The world after the West: Lynn Kuok on south-east Asia
South-east Asia is a culturally and geographically diverse region, notable for its proximity and economic ties to China. Though the political structure of the region’s…
The world after the West: Rana Mitter on China
In recent years, China has overtaken the United States as the largest trading partner of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Not only has…
China’s new ideas: People, power, progress
Mark Leonard welcomes Alicja Bachulska and Janka Oertel to discuss their latest book, “The Idea of China.”
The world after the West: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri on India
Mark Leonard welcomes to Pramit Pal Chaudhuri to discuss India as a middle power
Events
14 Apr
Transatlantic Forum, 8th Edition – La competizione USA-Cina per la sicurezza tecnologica
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum vedrà il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra…
4 Mar
CHINA-EU RELATIONS IN A TRUMPIAN WORLD
Si tratta del sesto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi…
22 Nov
China’s views in today’s changing global order
With increased US-China competition likely to shape Trump’s second term, significant attention in Washington is focused on the primacists, prioritisers and restrainers vying to shape…
14 Nov
European policy towards India and the Indo-Pacific
Europe’s relations with India have mis-fired in the past, even as New Delhi has built a range of important new partnerships with major international players,…
14 Nov
Sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict scenario
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
1 Oct
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
17 Jul
Transizione energetica, tecnologia e geopolitica: quali scenari strategici per Europa & Italia?
La sfida tecnologica posta dalla transizione energetica è un fattore dirimente di competizione tra gli attori internazionali, con implicazioni critiche sul futuro assetto geoeconomico globale, come reso evidente dalle tensioni nelle relazioni commerciali tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Unione Europea. Allo stesso tempo, la proiezione esterna degli attori internazionali e lo sforzo di costruzione di nuove partnership e collaborazioni sono meccanismi essenziali per lo sviluppo di catene del valore resilienti
20 Jun
How to Manage Europe’s Green Technology Dependence on China: A Black Coffee Morning
As the global landscape shifts towards strategic rivalry between China and the advanced industrial economies of the West, Europe finds itself at a crossroads, needing…
12 Jun
Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico
La discussione “Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico”, organizzata dall’ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ed ELEC – European League for Economic Cooperation, avrà luogo, in forma virtuale, mercoledì 12 giugno 2024 dalle ore 16:30 alle ore 18:00 sulla piattaforma Zoom
In the media
There is a major opportunity for transport, energy and construction firms to expand their markets
Alberto Rizzi on the economic opportunities deriving from the development of Euro-Asian trade
Current trade talks with China are not necessarily about closer cooperation with Beijing, but rather about using this strategic moment of uncertainty to negotiate
