After Paris: how can Europe save the world order from Trump?
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard talks with the director of ECFR's Paris office, Manuel Lafont Rapnouil, and ECFR's Research Director, Jeremy Shapiro, about the consequences of…
Experts & Staff
Jeremy Shapiro
Research Director
Director, US Programme
Areas of expertise
Transatlantic relations; US foreign policy
Languages
English
Biography
Jeremy Shapiro is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. His areas of focus include US foreign policy and transatlantic relations.
Shapiro was previously a fellow with the Project on International Order and Strategy and the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, where he edited the Foreign Policy program’s blog Order from Chaos. Prior to Brookings, he was a member of the U.S. State Department’s policy planning staff, where he advised the secretary of state on U.S. policy in North Africa and the Levant. He was also the senior advisor to Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon, providing strategic guidance on a wide variety of U.S.-European foreign policy issues.
Trump and Europe: The NASCAR Summit?
Regardless of Trump's visit to Europe, serious questions about the Trump administration should persist for Europe
ECFR Discussion: The Chinese-Russian Eastern Partnership
Are Russia and China building an alliance which would fundamentally alter the geostrategic landscape in Eurasia and beyond? With: Nicu Popescu, Senior Analyst,…
Macron’s Foreign Policy: Claiming the tradition
Macron’s inexperience means he needs to reassure the electorate that he can manage the national security state
The EU in Trump’s World #4: the reset of the U.S. Asia Policy
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard talks with ECFR's research director, Jeremy Shapiro and Asia & China experts Angela Stanzel and François Godement about Trump's Asia policy…
Why the G7 can’t agree a response to Syria
The group could not make a decision on sanctions against Russia
Mark’s World in 30 Minutes: The Death of Expertise?
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with James McGann, senior lecturer in International Studies and director of the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, Jeremy Shapiro,…
L’avenir de la relation transatlantique repose sur les Européens
Entretien en anglais de Jeremy Shapiro, directeur de recherche de l'ECFR, par Tara Varma, coordinatrice des activités du bureau de Paris de l'ECFR,…
Pay no attention to the President?
The reassurances of even the most senior officials in the administration are worth very little to US allies
Mark’s World In 30 Minutes: How to respond to Trump’s travel ban?
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard discusses with ECFR's Research Director Jeremy Shapiro and ECFR Policy Fellows Anthony Dworkin & Mattia Toaldo how the EU should respond…
Publications
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities. Yet the UK can forge an effective foreign policy if it focuses on British strengths, avoids military adventures in distant lands, and finds balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, and prepare to manage the profound geopolitical repercussions of the Green Deal in its relationships with its neighbourhood
Sovereign Europe, dangerous world: Five agendas to protect Europe’s capacity to act
To manage in this new world, the EU and its members need to embark on a broad-based effort to recover their strategic sovereignty
Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry
The EU cannot continue to rely on its regulatory power but must become a tech superpower in its own right. Referees do not win the game
Articles
The bully’s pulpit: Finding patterns in Trump’s use of military force
Over two presidential terms, Donald Trump has used threats to intimidate his adversaries and mostly only employed force against his weaker victims. This pattern of bullying provides an insight into his future decision-making
When culture war and trade war clash: Trump’s troubled alliance with Europe’s far right
The Trump administration and far-right European politicians see an opportunity to transform the EU from within. In turn, liberal Europeans have an opportunity to undermine this transatlantic alliance—before it gathers real momentum
The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
Letter from Washington: Why Trump won’t like Europe’s Ukraine plan
The US has rid itself of its responsibility for Europe’s defence—and Europeans have finally responded. For those in Washington, however, it is too little too late
Letter from Washington: Why Trump ignores Europe
Donald Trump has effectively ignored Europeans in his plan for negotiations over the war in Ukraine. In searching for a reason, Europeans must face the uncomfortable truth: they simply aren’t important enough
2025: The year we get better at being wrong
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Letter from Washington: Why Harris or Trump will win the US election
On 5 November, Americans will elect their new president. But with just two weeks to go, neither Harris nor Trump has a decisive lead
Letter from Washington: The unbearable lightness of policy
The Democratic party is running a vibes campaign while Republicans are desperately trying to distance themselves from the disastrous policies of Project 2025. In this fifth instalment of Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro laments the loss of policy in American presidential campaigns
Letter from Washington: The war for Trump’s mind
In this fourth instalment of Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro sets out how Republican entreprenuers are battling it out to fill in the gaps in of Donald Trump’s foreign policy with their own ambitions
Letter from Washington: All-knowing America and US intelligence diplomacy
The apparent omniscience of US intelligence is a valuable strategic asset. In this third instalment of ECFR’s Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro sets out what Europeans can learn from the US intelligence community to boost their diplomatic arsenal
Specials
Fear and loathing on the road to the US elections
European leaders are underestimating the danger that Trump presents to the transatlantic alliance and assuming too much continuity in the event of a Clinton presidency
Podcasts
100 days of Trump
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe
Signal scandal: The US and its shifting alliances
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack recent scandals and strategic shifts in US foreign policy
Ten foreign policy predictions for 2025
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro look back over their 2024 predictions and forecast ten foreign policy projections for 2025
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Swamp Chronicles: Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Mark Leonard, and Jeremy Shapiro on the results of the US election
In this bonus episode of Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Mark Leonard about the results of the US election
US election special: Donald Trump wins
Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the results of the 2024 US election
Swamp Chronicles: Célia Belin and Madja Ruge on the foreign policy of the next US administration
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Célia Belin and Majda Ruge about the US election and the various foreign policy tribes within the Democratic and Republican party
Swamp Chronicles: Fiona Hill on US leadership, Ukraine’s future, and the post-election world
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Fiona Hill about the future of transatlantic relations and the war in Ukraine after the election
Swamp Chronicles: Ed Luce on what is at stake in the 2024 election
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Ed Luce to talk about what either a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory would mean for America, US foreign policy, and Europe
Swamp Chronicles: Matt Duss on progressive foreign policy in the Middle East and Ukraine
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome to Matt Duss to discuss American policy in the Middle East and the future of progressive foreign policy
Events
10 Feb
The return of President Trump and its implications for the UK and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the…
10 Dec
How to cope with Trump 2.0: Ukraine, Nato, China and trade wars
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it…
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
16 Sep
American Foreign Policy after the Elections
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a…
1 Jul
Dormant NATO: Future Prospects and Challenges
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of…
19 Jun
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
12 Jun
The Crossroads of Democracy: Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 US Presidential Election
Foreign policy seldom plays much of a role in American presidential elections, but the consequences of those contests can be profound for America’s allies in…
22 May
European defence: Expectations and demands of non-EU partners
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
12 May
Green energy and China: How to avoid new dependencies?
Rhodium Group are delighted to invite you to the virtual launch event of our new policy paper “Circuit Breakers: Securing the Green Energy Supply Chain”
21 Feb
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
In the media
Jeremy Shapiro on democracy in the US
Jeremy Shapiro on the Democrats’ possible next candidate for the US presidency
Jeremy Shapiro on Trump’s interest in a ukrainian peace deal
Jeremy Shapiro on Trump’s trade war
Jeremy Shapiro on Trump, the ukraine war and europe’s position