2026: The year we stop pretending it’s just a phase
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Experts & Staff
Jeremy Shapiro
Research Director
Director, US Programme
Areas of expertise
Transatlantic relations; US foreign policy
Languages
English
Biography
Jeremy Shapiro is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. His areas of focus include US foreign policy and transatlantic relations.
Shapiro was previously a fellow with the Project on International Order and Strategy and the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, where he edited the Foreign Policy program’s blog Order from Chaos. Prior to Brookings, he was a member of the U.S. State Department’s policy planning staff, where he advised the secretary of state on U.S. policy in North Africa and the Levant. He was also the senior advisor to Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon, providing strategic guidance on a wide variety of U.S.-European foreign policy issues.
Trump attacks Venezuela
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss what Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro means for the world
Predictions and reckonings: From 2025 to 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to look back at the year that was and ahead to what 2026 might bring
The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia
While Estonia’s geography makes it vulnerable to a Russian invasion, it is also protected due to weakened Russian capabilities, stronger European defence cooperation and its own preparedness. NATO’s European members should be reassured but not complacent
A tale of two buildings: Munich and Vietnam at war in Ukraine
The West’s response to Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is caught between the 1938 Munich warning against appeasing aggression and the 1960s Vietnam lesson against overextension. The answer lies in tempering the two extremes
Venezuela and Trump’s hemispheric defence agenda
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the US millitary engagement in Venezuela and Trump’s broader defence strategy
Ukraine, Russia and Trump’s sanctions gamble
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to discuss the latest twists in diplomacy between Ukraine, Russia and the West
Live from the Aspen Security Forum: America’s inward turn
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Tom Wright to unpack the Aspen Security Forum and America’s shifting global priorities
Air of superiority: What the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine can teach Europeans about NATO readiness
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are different in a multitude of important ways. But they nonetheless offer some common lessons for Europeans on the importance of air superiority to military victory
The bully’s pulpit: Finding patterns in Trump’s use of military force
Over two presidential terms, Donald Trump has used threats to intimidate his adversaries and mostly only employed force against his weaker victims. This pattern of bullying provides an insight into his future decision-making
Publications
The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia
While Estonia’s geography makes it vulnerable to a Russian invasion, it is also protected due to weakened Russian capabilities, stronger European defence cooperation and its own preparedness. NATO’s European members should be reassured but not complacent
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities. Yet the UK can forge an effective foreign policy if it focuses on British strengths, avoids military adventures in distant lands, and finds balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, and prepare to manage the profound geopolitical repercussions of the Green Deal in its relationships with its neighbourhood
Sovereign Europe, dangerous world: Five agendas to protect Europe’s capacity to act
To manage in this new world, the EU and its members need to embark on a broad-based effort to recover their strategic sovereignty
Articles
2026: The year we stop pretending it’s just a phase
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
A tale of two buildings: Munich and Vietnam at war in Ukraine
The West’s response to Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is caught between the 1938 Munich warning against appeasing aggression and the 1960s Vietnam lesson against overextension. The answer lies in tempering the two extremes
Air of superiority: What the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine can teach Europeans about NATO readiness
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are different in a multitude of important ways. But they nonetheless offer some common lessons for Europeans on the importance of air superiority to military victory
The bully’s pulpit: Finding patterns in Trump’s use of military force
Over two presidential terms, Donald Trump has used threats to intimidate his adversaries and mostly only employed force against his weaker victims. This pattern of bullying provides an insight into his future decision-making
When culture war and trade war clash: Trump’s troubled alliance with Europe’s far right
The Trump administration and far-right European politicians see an opportunity to transform the EU from within. In turn, liberal Europeans have an opportunity to undermine this transatlantic alliance—before it gathers real momentum
The art of the peace deal: What the Trump administration wants from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump is keen to trade US involvement in Ukraine for a vision of a new Russian-American order
Letter from Washington: Why Trump won’t like Europe’s Ukraine plan
The US has rid itself of its responsibility for Europe’s defence—and Europeans have finally responded. For those in Washington, however, it is too little too late
Letter from Washington: Why Trump ignores Europe
Donald Trump has effectively ignored Europeans in his plan for negotiations over the war in Ukraine. In searching for a reason, Europeans must face the uncomfortable truth: they simply aren’t important enough
2025: The year we get better at being wrong
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Letter from Washington: Why Harris or Trump will win the US election
On 5 November, Americans will elect their new president. But with just two weeks to go, neither Harris nor Trump has a decisive lead
Specials
Fear and loathing on the road to the US elections
European leaders are underestimating the danger that Trump presents to the transatlantic alliance and assuming too much continuity in the event of a Clinton presidency
Podcasts
Trump attacks Venezuela
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss what Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro means for the world
Predictions and reckonings: From 2025 to 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to look back at the year that was and ahead to what 2026 might bring
Venezuela and Trump’s hemispheric defence agenda
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the US millitary engagement in Venezuela and Trump’s broader defence strategy
Ukraine, Russia and Trump’s sanctions gamble
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to discuss the latest twists in diplomacy between Ukraine, Russia and the West
Live from the Aspen Security Forum: America’s inward turn
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Tom Wright to unpack the Aspen Security Forum and America’s shifting global priorities
100 days of Trump
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe
Signal scandal: The US and its shifting alliances
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack recent scandals and strategic shifts in US foreign policy
Ten foreign policy predictions for 2025
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro look back over their 2024 predictions and forecast ten foreign policy projections for 2025
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Swamp Chronicles: Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Mark Leonard, and Jeremy Shapiro on the results of the US election
In this bonus episode of Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Mark Leonard about the results of the US election
Events
10
Feb
European Power
The return of President Trump and its implications for the UK and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the Middle East and reduce tensions in US-China relations. Are they right? What do his first few days in office tell us about his vision of the world and foreign policy…
10
Dec
United States
How to cope with Trump 2.0: Ukraine, Nato, China and trade wars
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it will impact them and what are the best ways to protect their interests. Meanwhile, the campaign for the German elections is in full swing and the outcome will impact Europe’s…
Asia
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential conflict over Taiwan. Perhaps counterintuitively, the EU likely holds more economic leverage over China than the bloc typically assumes. This is because Beijing would probably factor in retaliatory sanctions from…
16
Sep
United States
American Foreign Policy after the Elections
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a second big unknown in the form of Kamala Harris. How would Trump 2.0 differ from Trump 1.0? Would a President Harris continue Biden’s foreign policy or forge her own path?…
United States
Dormant NATO: Future Prospects and Challenges
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of “strategic autonomy”. Even though Europeans have significantly increased their defence spending over the past two years, there is still a massive transatlantic imbalance in NATO. The potential re-election of Donald…
Middle East and North Africa
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
12
Jun
United States
The Crossroads of Democracy: Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 US Presidential Election
Foreign policy seldom plays much of a role in American presidential elections, but the consequences of those contests can be profound for America’s allies in Europe and for the world. The 2024 election will have significant implications for American foreign policy, whatever the outcome. To discuss how the election results are likely to influence America’s…
European Power
European defence: Expectations and demands of non-EU partners
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
Asia
Green energy and China: How to avoid new dependencies?
Rhodium Group are delighted to invite you to the virtual launch event of our new policy paper “Circuit Breakers: Securing the Green Energy Supply Chain”
European Power
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
In the media
Jeremy Shapiro on the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy and its hostile foreign policy towards Europe
Jeremy Shapiro on Trump’s approach to Europe during his second term
Jeremy Sharpiro on the divisions within Europe and the growing domestic support in Russia for the invasion of Ukraine
Jeremy Shapiro on the implications of the US National Security Strategy document
Jeremy Shapiro on Trump’s rationale for the cultural war against Europe