Will the US and Russia go to war over Syria?
The good news is that neither Washington nor Moscow sees the advantage of a showdown on Syria. The bad news is that the confrontation could still escalate.
Experts & Staff
Jeremy Shapiro
Research Director
Director, US Programme
Areas of expertise
Transatlantic relations; US foreign policy
Languages
English
Biography
Jeremy Shapiro is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. His areas of focus include US foreign policy and transatlantic relations.
Shapiro was previously a fellow with the Project on International Order and Strategy and the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, where he edited the Foreign Policy program’s blog Order from Chaos. Prior to Brookings, he was a member of the U.S. State Department’s policy planning staff, where he advised the secretary of state on U.S. policy in North Africa and the Levant. He was also the senior advisor to Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon, providing strategic guidance on a wide variety of U.S.-European foreign policy issues.
Too close for comfort: European geostrategy and the transatlantic alliance
The question for Europe now is whether it needs to de-couple its strategy toward regional great powers from that of the United States
Europe and the great powers
Mark Leonard speaks with Asli Aydıntaşbaş, Kadri Liik, François Godement and Jeremy Shapiro about Europe’s relations with the US, China, Russia and Turkey. The podcast…
Turkey’s Afrin offensive
Mark Leonard, Asli Aydintasbas, Kadri Liik and Jeremy Shapiro, discuss Turkey's offensive near the Syria-Turkey boarder, the future of US-Turkey relations and Russia's role in…
Donald does Davos: The American President goes global
In this week’s episode, Trump takes his “America First” crusade into the very den of globalism: The World Economic Forum in Davos
Opportunities amid disorder: Europe and the world in 2018
2017: It could have been worse Prediction is a gloomy business, even in the best of times. It is neither fun nor interesting to predict…
Trends for 2018
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro review the year gone by and predict the 10 foreign policy trends that will define 2018. The podcast was recorded…
Lies, damned lies, and National Security Strategies
The NSS desribes a standard Republican foreign policy. But this isn’t a standard presidency
One less adult in the room
Rex Tillerson received a frosty welcome in Europe last week. But the old continent has not yet formulated a practical response to Trump’s foreign policy
La politique étrangère de Macron : quel bilan après les 6 premiers mois?
Podcast du Black Coffee Morning “La politique étrangère de Macron : quel bilan après les 6 premiers mois ?” du 08/12/2017 animé par…
Publications
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities. Yet the UK can forge an effective foreign policy if it focuses on British strengths, avoids military adventures in distant lands, and finds balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, and prepare to manage the profound geopolitical repercussions of the Green Deal in its relationships with its neighbourhood
Sovereign Europe, dangerous world: Five agendas to protect Europe’s capacity to act
To manage in this new world, the EU and its members need to embark on a broad-based effort to recover their strategic sovereignty
Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry
The EU cannot continue to rely on its regulatory power but must become a tech superpower in its own right. Referees do not win the game
Articles
Letter from Washington: Why Trump won’t like Europe’s Ukraine plan
The US has rid itself of its responsibility for Europe’s defence—and Europeans have finally responded. For those in Washington, however, it is too little too late
Letter from Washington: Why Trump ignores Europe
Donald Trump has effectively ignored Europeans in his plan for negotiations over the war in Ukraine. In searching for a reason, Europeans must face the uncomfortable truth: they simply aren’t important enough
2025: The year we get better at being wrong
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Letter from Washington: Why Harris or Trump will win the US election
On 5 November, Americans will elect their new president. But with just two weeks to go, neither Harris nor Trump has a decisive lead
Letter from Washington: The unbearable lightness of policy
The Democratic party is running a vibes campaign while Republicans are desperately trying to distance themselves from the disastrous policies of Project 2025. In this fifth instalment of Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro laments the loss of policy in American presidential campaigns
Letter from Washington: The war for Trump’s mind
In this fourth instalment of Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro sets out how Republican entreprenuers are battling it out to fill in the gaps in of Donald Trump’s foreign policy with their own ambitions
Letter from Washington: All-knowing America and US intelligence diplomacy
The apparent omniscience of US intelligence is a valuable strategic asset. In this third instalment of ECFR’s Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro sets out what Europeans can learn from the US intelligence community to boost their diplomatic arsenal
Letter from Washington: Why we hate Trump
The establishment hates Donald Trump and Trump voters hate the establishment. In this second instalment of ECFR’s Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro explains why Europeans need to understand the dynamics that underpin this toxic relationship
Letter from Washington: Democracy on the ballot
In our new series of letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro helps you navigate a US election year that could have profound implications for Europe. In this first instalment, he outlines how campaigns fought on an opponent’s threat to democracy could imperil that very same ideal (and not only in the US)
2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise
Ten predictions for the foreign policy trends of 2024, and a little bonus
Specials
Fear and loathing on the road to the US elections
European leaders are underestimating the danger that Trump presents to the transatlantic alliance and assuming too much continuity in the event of a Clinton presidency
Podcasts
Ten foreign policy predictions for 2025
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro look back over their 2024 predictions and forecast ten foreign policy projections for 2025
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Swamp Chronicles: Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Mark Leonard, and Jeremy Shapiro on the results of the US election
In this bonus episode of Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Mark Leonard about the results of the US election
US election special: Donald Trump wins
Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the results of the 2024 US election
Swamp Chronicles: Célia Belin and Madja Ruge on the foreign policy of the next US administration
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Célia Belin and Majda Ruge about the US election and the various foreign policy tribes within the Democratic and Republican party
Swamp Chronicles: Fiona Hill on US leadership, Ukraine’s future, and the post-election world
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Fiona Hill about the future of transatlantic relations and the war in Ukraine after the election
Swamp Chronicles: Ed Luce on what is at stake in the 2024 election
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Ed Luce to talk about what either a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory would mean for America, US foreign policy, and Europe
Swamp Chronicles: Matt Duss on progressive foreign policy in the Middle East and Ukraine
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome to Matt Duss to discuss American policy in the Middle East and the future of progressive foreign policy
Kamala Harris and the future of US foreign policy
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss Kamala Harris’s foreign policy
Swamp Chronicles: Ken Weinstein on Trump and the Indo-Pacific
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome Ken Weinstein to discuss why and how Trump’s negotiating tactics could strengthen the US foreign policy position, and help forge alliances against China
Events
10 Feb
The return of President Trump and its implications for the UK and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the…
10 Dec
How to cope with Trump 2.0: Ukraine, Nato, China and trade wars
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it…
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
16 Sep
American Foreign Policy after the Elections
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a…
1 Jul
Dormant NATO: Future Prospects and Challenges
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of…
19 Jun
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
12 Jun
The Crossroads of Democracy: Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 US Presidential Election
Foreign policy seldom plays much of a role in American presidential elections, but the consequences of those contests can be profound for America’s allies in…
22 May
European defence: Expectations and demands of non-EU partners
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
12 May
Green energy and China: How to avoid new dependencies?
Rhodium Group are delighted to invite you to the virtual launch event of our new policy paper “Circuit Breakers: Securing the Green Energy Supply Chain”
21 Feb
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
In the media
In his piece, Jeremy Shapiro argues that Trump’s foreign policy is driven by a chaotic, factional process rather than a structured, technocratic one, making decisions unpredictable and opaque
In his piece, Jeremy Shapiro argues that Trump’s policies threaten US innovation despite promises of growth
Jeremy Shapiro on Europe’s challenge post-Munich
Jeremy Shapiro on Trump´s strategy for Ukraine
Jeremy Shapiro on the three “tribes” of Republican foreign policy thought, Biden’s FP legacy, and European security