What a Le Pen presidency would mean for Europe and the world
How would a Le Pen presidency affect Europe and the world?
Experts & Staff
Jeremy Shapiro
Research Director
Areas of expertise
Transatlantic relations; US foreign policy
Languages
English
Biography
Jeremy Shapiro is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. His areas of focus include US foreign policy and transatlantic relations.
Shapiro was previously a fellow with the Project on International Order and Strategy and the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, where he edited the Foreign Policy program’s blog Order from Chaos. Prior to Brookings, he was a member of the U.S. State Department’s policy planning staff, where he advised the secretary of state on U.S. policy in North Africa and the Levant. He was also the senior advisor to Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon, providing strategic guidance on a wide variety of U.S.-European foreign policy issues.
War in Ukraine: a stale-mate for the West and NATO’s future?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
Don’t mention the war in Ukraine: Germany’s deteriorating image in Washington
America as a political community is losing faith in Germany. Even if the Biden administration is currently satisfied with a Germany that does the minimum, this is hardly a foundation on which to build a new leadership model for the European security order.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro discuss our latest polling results on the Ukraine crisis and how European policymakers might adjust their policies to reflect the public mood it reveals
21 Feb
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
Why Europe has no say in the Russia-Ukraine crisis
On a fundamental level, Europe’s lack of agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis stems from a growing power imbalance in the Western alliance
Europe’s role in tackling the Russia-Ukraine crisis
What are European and American interests in the Russia-Ukraine crisis? What are possible ways to avert a calamity?
Top 10 foreign policy trends for 2022
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year 2022
2022: The road to recovery (again)
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year 2022
Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities. Yet the UK can forge an effective foreign policy if it focuses on British strengths, avoids military adventures in distant lands, and finds balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US.
Publications
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities. Yet the UK can forge an effective foreign policy if it focuses on British strengths, avoids military adventures in distant lands, and finds balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US.
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, and prepare to manage the profound geopolitical repercussions of the Green Deal in its relationships with its neighbourhood
Sovereign Europe, dangerous world: Five agendas to protect Europe’s capacity to act
To manage in this new world, the EU and its members need to embark on a broad-based effort to recover their strategic sovereignty
Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry
The EU cannot continue to rely on its regulatory power but must become a tech superpower in its own right. Referees do not win the game.
Health sovereignty: How to build a resilient European response to pandemics
Europe must improve its early warning systems, supply chain resilience, medical R&D, and cyber security and technology, to act decisively in future emergencies
Strategic sovereignty: How Europe can regain the capacity to act
The EU needs to learn to think like a geopolitical power
Redefining Europe’s economic sovereignty
Europeans can take steps now to enhance their economic power, without advocating increased protectionism or a retreat from globalisation
Opportunities amid disorder: Europe and the world in 2018
2017: It could have been worse Prediction is a gloomy business, even in the best of times. It is neither fun nor interesting to predict…
Articles
Polarised power: The three Republican ‘tribes’ that could define America’s relationship with the world
Three Republican ‘tribes’ are competing to write their next president’s US foreign policy. Whether ‘restrainers,’ ‘prioritisers,’ or ‘primacists’ emerge on top will have profound implications for Europe and the globe
The coming transatlantic rift over Ukraine
Europeans will have to put their money where their mouth is to maintain relations with the US over Ukraine – and deliver a ‘long war plan’, such as that proposed by ECFR
No laughing MAGA: What the next US presidential election could mean for Europe
Europeans should be concerned not just with whether Trump will win but how to deal with the version of post-Trump America that could emerge in 2025
The exaggerated death of European sovereignty
The US may have dominated Western efforts to defend Ukraine, but future American leaders will expect Europeans to take up most of the burden of dealing with Russia
Don’t mention the war in Ukraine: Germany’s deteriorating image in Washington
America as a political community is losing faith in Germany. Even if the Biden administration is currently satisfied with a Germany that does the minimum, this is hardly a foundation on which to build a new leadership model for the European security order.
Why Europe has no say in the Russia-Ukraine crisis
On a fundamental level, Europe’s lack of agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis stems from a growing power imbalance in the Western alliance
2022: The road to recovery (again)
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year 2022
The long year: Top foreign policy trends for 2021
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come
What we have lost: Trump, Biden, and the meaning of transatlantic relations
The US-European alliance is the real-world expression of the West – of a sense that both sides of the Atlantic are in it together. This is what we have lost over the last four years.
Three dangers Trump’s covid poses for the world
What Trump gets up to stuck in quarantine could disrupt the US and the world in frightening ways
Specials
Fear and loathing on the road to the US elections
European leaders are underestimating the danger that Trump presents to the transatlantic alliance and assuming too much continuity in the event of a Clinton presidency
Podcasts
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
Winter is coming: Europe’s energy transition and the war in Ukraine
Can Europe remain true to its climate agenda despite Russia’s war in Ukraine?
The European Sovereignty Index #FactsThatMatter
How can the EU and member states close the gap between ambition and capability in their quest for European sovereignty?
What a Le Pen presidency would mean for Europe and the world
How would a Le Pen presidency affect Europe and the world?
War in Ukraine: a stale-mate for the West and NATO’s future?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro discuss our latest polling results on the Ukraine crisis and how European policymakers might adjust their policies to reflect the public mood it reveals
Europe’s role in tackling the Russia-Ukraine crisis
What are European and American interests in the Russia-Ukraine crisis? What are possible ways to avert a calamity?
Top 10 foreign policy trends for 2022
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year 2022
The transatlantic meaning of AUKUS
What does AUKUS mean for the future of transatlantic relations?
Events
12 May
Green energy and China: How to avoid new dependencies?
Rhodium Group are delighted to invite you to the virtual launch event of our new policy paper “Circuit Breakers: Securing the Green Energy Supply Chain”
21 Feb
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
17 Dec
Europe’s answer to economic warfare: The EU’s anti-coercion instrument and building sovereignty in a networked world
Join ECFR in this two-part event on the EU’s potentially game-changing geopolitical instrument against economic blackmail from great powers, and the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
15 Dec
Strategic sovereignty: how can Europe survive Biden’s presidency
The event will convene a high-level group of Italian decision-makers and opinion shapers across government, business, media and the expert community as well as member of ECFR Council
In the media
Jeremy Shapiro predicts that US pressure on the Europeans to take on a much larger share of the costs of supporting Ukraine will increase very soon
The op-ed refers to Jeremy Shapiro’s commentary on the coming transatlantic rift over Ukraine
ECFR argued that governments need to avoid polarisation of societies, and ‘present arms deliveries and sanctions as part of a defensive war’
The newspaper refers to ECFR’s “long war” plan
The more the war develops to the Russians’ disadvantage, the more red lines they draw to warn the West against escalation
Facing a military defeat catastrophic, the danger of a Russian nuclear strike by Russia increases
Both sides have decided that they cannot lose, that their existential values are at stake and they have proven themselves willing to escalate continually
Jeremy Shapiro’s interview on the escalation in Ukraine and negotiations with Vladimir Putin as the way forward
The consequences of this path are deeply ruinous. It should be named.
Jeremy Shapiro writes about why we are on a path to nuclear war